kmth price sealed-bid auctions with general independent values and equilibrium linear mark-ups

A generalised bidding model is developed to calculate a bidder’s expected profit and auctioners expected revenue/payment for both a General Independent Value and Independent Private Value (IPV) kmth price sealed-bid auction (where the mth bidder wins at the kth bid payment) using a linear (affine) mark-up function. The Common Value (CV) assumption, and highbid and lowbid symmetric and asymmetric First Price Auctions and Second Price Auctions are included as special cases. The optimal n bidder symmetric analytical results are then provided for the uniform IPV and CV models in equilibrium. Final comments concern implications, the assumptions involved and prospects for further research.

Overview of the INEX 2009 Ad Hoc Track

This paper gives an overview of the INEX 2009 Ad Hoc Track. The main goals of the Ad Hoc Track were three-fold. The first goal was to investigate the impact of the collection scale and markup, by using a new collection that is again based on a the Wikipedia but is over 4 times larger, with longer articles and additional semantic annotations. For this reason the Ad Hoc track tasks stayed unchanged, and the Thorough Task of INEX 2002–2006 returns. The second goal was to study the impact of more verbose queries on retrieval effectiveness, by using the available markup as structural constraints—now using both the Wikipedia’s layout-based markup, as well as the enriched semantic markup—and by the use of phrases. The third goal was to compare different result granularities by allowing systems to retrieve XML elements, ranges of XML elements, or arbitrary passages of text. This investigates the value of the internal document structure (as provided by the XML mark-up) for retrieving relevant information. The INEX 2009 Ad Hoc Track featured four tasks: For the Thorough Task a ranked-list of results (elements or passages) by estimated relevance was needed. For the Focused Task a ranked-list of non-overlapping results (elements or passages) was needed. For the Relevant in Context Task non-overlapping results (elements or passages) were returned grouped by the article from which they came. For the Best in Context Task a single starting point (element start tag or passage start) for each article was needed. We discuss the setup of the track, and the results for the four tasks.

On being balanced in an unbalanced world

This paper examines the case of a procurement auction for a single project, in which the breakdown of the winning bid into its component items determines the value of payments subsequently made to bidder as the work progresses. Unbalanced bidding, or bid skewing, involves the uneven distribution of mark-up among the component items in such a way as to attempt to derive increased benefit to the unbalancer but without involving any change in the total bid. One form of unbalanced bidding for example, termed Front Loading (FL), is thought to be widespread in practice. This involves overpricing the work items that occur early in the project and underpricing the work items that occur later in the project in order to enhance the bidder's cash flow. Naturally, auctioners attempt to protect themselves from the effects of unbalancing—typically reserving the right to reject a bid that has been detected as unbalanced. As a result, models have been developed to both unbalance bids and detect unbalanced bids but virtually nothing is known of their use, success or otherwise. This is of particular concern for the detection methods as, without testing, there is no way of knowing the extent to which unbalanced bids are remaining undetected or balanced bids are being falsely detected as unbalanced. This paper reports on a simulation study aimed at demonstrating the likely effects of unbalanced bid detection models in a deterministic environment involving FL unbalancing in a Texas DOT detection setting, in which bids are deemed to be unbalanced if an item exceeds a maximum (or fails to reach a minimum) ‘cut-off’ value determined by the Texas method. A proportion of bids are automatically and maximally unbalanced over a long series of simulated contract projects and the profits and detection rates of both the balancers and unbalancers are compared. The results show that, as expected, the balanced bids are often incorrectly detected as unbalanced, with the rate of (mis)detection increasing with the proportion of FL bidders in the auction. It is also shown that, while the profit for balanced bidders remains the same irrespective of the number of FL bidders involved, the FL bidder's profit increases with the greater proportion of FL bidders present in the auction. Sensitivity tests show the results to be generally robust, with (mis)detection rates increasing further when there are fewer bidders in the auction and when more data are averaged to determine the baseline value, but being smaller or larger with increased cut-off values and increased cost and estimate variability depending on the number of FL bidders involved. The FL bidder's expected benefit from unbalancing, on the other hand, increases, when there are fewer bidders in the auction. It also increases when the cut-off rate and discount rate is increased, when there is less variability in the costs and their estimates, and when less data are used in setting the baseline values.

Why do tenders vary?

This paper describes the development of hypothetical models of tendering sets. Each tender is theorized as consisting of two variable components, the cost estimate and the mark-up, and in consideration of these variables, the concept of a 'winning zone' is postulated.

A multivariate approach to bidding strategies

A multivariate approach to bidding strategy is presented in comparison with previous standard approaches. An optimal formulation is derived and a method of parameter estimation proposed. A case study illustrates the derivation of optimal and other strategic mark up values against a single bidder. Concluding remarks concern extensions to multiple competitors differing levels of information, and sensitivity analysis.

How distributional preferences shape incentives on (experimental) markets for credence goods

Credence goods markets suffer from inefficiencies caused by superior information of sellers about the surplus-maximizing quality. While standard theory predicts that equal mark-up prices solve the credence goods problem if customers can verify the quality received, experimental evidence indicates the opposite. We identify a lack of robustness of institutional design with respect to heterogeneity in distributional preferences as a possible cause and design new experiments that allow for parsimonious identification of sellers’ distributional types. Our results indicate that less than a fourth of the subjects behave according to standard theory’s assumption, the rest behaving either in line with non-standard selfish or in accordance with non-trivial other-regarding preferences. We discuss consequences of our findings for institutional design and agent selection.

Overview of the INEX 2008 Ad Hoc Track

This paper gives an overview of the INEX 2008 Ad Hoc Track. The main goals of the Ad Hoc Track were two-fold. The first goal was to investigate the value of the internal document structure (as provided by the XML mark-up) for retrieving relevant information. This is a continuation of INEX 2007 and, for this reason, the retrieval results are liberalized to arbitrary passages and measures were chosen to fairly compare systems retrieving elements, ranges of elements, and arbitrary passages. The second goal was to compare focused retrieval to article retrieval more directly than in earlier years. For this reason, standard document retrieval rankings have been derived from all runs, and evaluated with standard measures. In addition, a set of queries targeting Wikipedia have been derived from a proxy log, and the runs are also evaluated against the clicked Wikipedia pages. The INEX 2008 Ad Hoc Track featured three tasks: For the Focused Task a ranked-list of nonoverlapping results (elements or passages) was needed. For the Relevant in Context Task non-overlapping results (elements or passages) were returned grouped by the article from which they came. For the Best in Context Task a single starting point (element start tag or passage start) for each article was needed. We discuss the results for the three tasks, and examine the relative effectiveness of element and passage retrieval. This is examined in the context of content only (CO, or Keyword) search as well as content and structure (CAS, or structured) search. Finally, we look at the ability of focused retrieval techniques to rank articles, using standard document retrieval techniques, both against the judged topics as well as against queries and clicks from a proxy log.

Analysis of the distribution of the number of bidders in construction contract auctions

The number of bidders, N, involved in a construction procurement auction is known to have an important effect on the value of the lowest bid and the mark up applied by bidders. In practice, for example, it is important for a bidder to have a good estimate of N when bidding for a current contract. One approach, instigated by Friedman in 1956, is to make such an estimate by statistical analysis and modelling. Since then, however, finding a suitable model for N has been an enduring problem for researchers and, despite intensive research activity in the subsequent thirty years little progress has been made - due principally to the absence of new ideas and perspectives. This paper resumes the debate by checking old assumptions, providing new evidence relating to concomitant variables and proposing a new model. In doing this and in order to assure universality, a novel approach is developed and tested by using a unique set of twelve construction tender databases from four continents. This shows the new model provides a significant advancement on previous versions. Several new research questions are also posed and other approaches identified for future study.

How social preferences shape incentives in (experimental) markets for credence goods

Credence goods markets suffer from inefficiencies caused by superior information of sellers about the surplus-maximising quality. While standard theory predicts that equal mark-up prices solve the credence goods problem if customers can verify the quality received, experimental evidence indicates the opposite. We identify a lack of robustness with respect to heterogeneity in social preferences as a possible cause of this and conduct new experiments that allow for parsimonious identification of sellers’ social preference types. Our results confirm the assumed heterogeneity in social preferences and provide strong support for our explanation of the failure of verifiability to increase efficiency.

"There's no way in hell I would pull up" : Deterrent and other effects of vehicle impoundment laws for hooning

Traffic law enforcement is based on deterrence principles, whereby drivers control their behaviour in order to avoid an undesirable sanction. For “hooning”-related driving behaviours in Queensland, the driver’s vehicle can be impounded for 48 hours, 3 months, or permanently depending on the number of previous hooning offences. It is assumed that the threat of losing something of value, their vehicle, will discourage drivers from hooning. While official data shows that the rate of repeat offending is low, an in-depth understanding of the deterrent effects of these laws should involve qualitative research with targeted drivers. A sample of 22 drivers who reported engaging in hooning behaviours participated in focus group discussions about the vehicle impoundment laws as applied to hooning offences in Queensland. The findings suggested that deterrence theory alone cannot fully explain hooning behaviour, as participants reported hooning frequently, and intended to continue doing so, despite reporting that it is likely that they will be caught, and perceiving the vehicle impoundment laws to be extremely severe. The punishment avoidance aspect of deterrence theory appears important, as well as factors over and above legal issues, particularly social influences. A concerning finding was drivers’ willingness to flee from police in order to avoid losing their vehicle permanently for a third offence, despite acknowledging risks to their own safety and that of others. This paper discusses the study findings in terms of the implications for future research directions, enforcement practices and policy development for hooning and other traffic offences for which vehicle impoundment is applied.

Meniscal repair in the elite athlete : results of 45 repairs with a minimum 5-year follow-up

Background The preservation of meniscal tissue is important to protect joint surfaces. Purpose We have an aggressive approach to meniscal repair, including repairing tears other than those classically suited to repair. Here we present the medium- to long-term outcome of meniscal repair (inside-out) in elite athletes. Study Design Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods Forty-two elite athletes underwent 45 meniscal repairs. All repairs were performed using an arthroscopically assisted inside-out technique. Eighty-three percent of these athletes had ACL reconstruction at the same time. Patients returned a completed questionnaire (including Lysholm and International Knee Documentation Committee [IKDC] scores). Mean follow-up was 8.5 years. Failure was defined by patients developing symptoms of joint line pain and/or locking or swelling requiring repeat arthroscopy and partial meniscectomy. Results The average Lysholm and subjective IKDC scores were 89.6 and 85.4, respectively. Eighty-one percent of patients returned to their main sport and most to a similar level at a mean time of 10.4 months after repair, reflecting the high level of ACL reconstruction in this group. We identified 11 definite failures, 10 medial and 1 lateral meniscus, that required excision; this represents a 24% failure rate. We identified 1 further patient who had possible failed repairs, giving a worst-case failure rate of 26.7% at a mean of 42 months after surgery. However, 7 of these failures were associated with a further injury. Therefore, the atraumatic failure rate was 11%. Age and size and location of the tears were not associated with a higher failure rate. Medial meniscal repairs were significantly more likely to fail than lateral meniscal repairs, with a failure rate of 36.4% and 5.6%, respectively (P < .05). Conclusion Meniscal repair and healing are possible, and most elite athletes can return to their preinjury level of activity.

Conceptualizing a bottom-up approach to service bundling

Offering service bundles to the market is a promising option for service providers to strengthen their competitive advantages, cope with dynamic market conditions and deal with heterogeneous consumer demand. Although the expected positive effects of bundling strategies and pricing considerations for bundles are covered well by the available literature, limited guidance can be found regarding the identification of potential bundle candidates and the actual process of bundling. The contribution of this paper is the positioning of bundling based on insights from both business and computer science and the proposition of a structured bundling method, which guides organizations with the composition of bundles in practice.

Tips for generating a media release and media coverage : how the media ate up my research on Aussie horror movies

The focus of this paper is preparing research for dissemination by mainstream print, broadcast, and online media. While the rise of the blogosphere and social media is proving an effective way of reaching niche audiences, my own research reached such an audience through traditional media. The first major study of Australian horror cinema, my PhD thesis A Dark New World: Anatomy of Australian Horror Films, generated strong interest from horror movie fans, film scholars, and filmmakers. I worked closely with the Queensland University of Technology’s (QUT) public relations unit to write two separate media releases circulated on October 13, 2008 and October 14, 2009. This chapter reflects upon the process of working with the media and provides tips for reaching audiences, particularly in terms of strategically planning outcomes. It delves into the background of my study which would later influence my approach to the media, the process of drafting media releases, and key outcomes and benefits from popularising research. A key lesson from this experience is that redeveloping research for the media requires a sharp writing style, letting go of academic justification, catchy quotes, and an ability to distil complex details into easy-to-understand concepts. Although my study received strong media coverage, and I have since become a media commentator, my experiences also revealed a number of pitfalls that are likely to arise for other researchers keen on targeting media coverage.

Catch up on passing off : what you need to know about this tricky tort

Advice for assisting clients on the law relating to passing off - elements of passing off - overlap with consumer protection and trade mark law - reputation - misrepresentation - damages and remedies