Accident prediction model for railway-highway interfaces

Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes. Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes.

Bayesian methodology incorporating expert judgment for ranking countermeasure effectiveness under uncertainty: Example applied to at grade railroad crossings in Korea

This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.

Low-cost railway level crossings - breaking down the barriers

Level crossing risk continues to be a significant safety concern for the security of rail operations around the world. Over the last decade or so, a third of railway related fatalities occurred as a direct result of collisions between road and rail vehicles in Australia. Importantly, nearly half of these collisions occurred at railway level crossings with no active protection, such as flashing lights or boom barriers. Current practice is to upgrade level crossings that have no active protection. However, the total number of level crossings found across Australia exceed 23,500, and targeting the proportion of these that are considered high risk (e.g. public crossings with passive controls) would cost in excess of AU$3.25 billion based on equipment, installation and commissioning costs of warning devices that are currently type approved. Level crossing warning devices that are low-cost provide a potentially effective control for reducing risk; however, over the last decade, there have been significant barriers and legal issues in both Australia and the US that have foreshadowed their adoption. These devices are designed to have significantly lower lifecycle costs compared with traditional warning devices. They often make use of use of alternative technologies for train detection, wireless connectivity and solar energy supply. This paper describes the barriers that have been encountered for the adoption of these devices in Australia, including the challenges associated with: (1) determining requisite safety levels for such devices; (2) legal issues relating to duty of care obligations of railway operators; and (3) issues of Tort liability around the use of less than fail-safe equipment. This paper provides an overview of a comprehensive safety justification that was developed as part of a project funded by a collaborative rail research initiative established by the Australian government, and describes the conceptual framework and processes being used to justify its adoption. The paper provides a summary of key points from peer review and discusses prospective barriers that may need to be overcome for future adoption. A successful outcome from this process would result in the development of a guideline for decision-making, providing a precedence for adopting low-cost level crossing warning devices in other parts of the world. The framework described in this paper also provides relevance to the review and adoption of analogous technologies in rail and other safety critical industries.

The place of writing in first grade Kuwaiti english education : a sociological case study

A hybridized society, Kuwait meshes Islamic ideologies with western culture. Linguistically, English exists across both foreign language and second language nomenclatures in the country due to globalization and internationalization which has seen increasing use of English in Kuwait. Originally consisting of listening, speaking, reading and writing, the first grade English curriculum in Kuwait was narrowed in 2002 to focus only on the development of oral English skills, and to exclude writing. Since that time, both Kuwaiti teachers and parents have expressed dissatisfaction with this curriculum on the basis that this model disadvantages their children. In first grade however, the teaching of pre-writing has remained as part of the curriculum. This research analyses the parameters of English pre-writing and writing instruction in first grade in Kuwaiti classrooms, investigates first grade English pre-writing and writing teaching, and gathers insights from parents, teachers and students regarding the appropriateness of the current curriculum. Through interviews and classroom observations, and an analysis of curriculum documents, this case study found that the relationship between oral and written language is more complex than suggested by either the Kuwaiti curriculum reform, or international literature concerning the delayed teaching of writing. Intended curriculum integration across Kuwait subjects is also far more complex than first believed, due to a developmental mismatch between English pre-writing skills and Arabic language capabilities. Findings suggest an alternative approach to teaching writing may be more appropriate and more effective for first Grade students in the current Kuwait curriculum context. They contribute also to an emerging interest in the second and foreign language fields in the teaching of writing to young learners.

Prediction of highway truck conveyance configuration under over-limit prohibition and conveyance equilibrium

Aiming at the shortage of prevailing prediction methods about highway truck conveyance configuration in over-limit freight research that transferring the goods attributed to over-limit portion to another fully loaded truck of the same configuration and developing the truck traffic volume synchronously, a new way to get accumulated probability function of truck power tonnage in basal year by highway truck classified by wheel and axle type load mass spectrum investigation was presented. Logit models were used to forecast overall highway freight diversion and single cargo tonnage diversion when the weight rules and strict of enforcement intensity of overload were changed in scheme year. Assumption that the probability distribution of single truck loadage should be consistent with the probability distribution of single goods freighted, the model describes the truck conveyance configuration in the future under strict over-limit prohibition. The model was used and tested in Highway Over-limit Research Project in Anhui by World Bank.

Data mining on prices of highway project main material based on WEB

The management of main material prices of provincial highway project quota has problems of lag and blindness. Framework of provincial highway project quota data MIS and main material price data warehouse were established based on WEB firstly. Then concrete processes of provincial highway project main material prices were brought forward based on BP neural network algorithmic. After that standard BP algorithmic, additional momentum modify BP network algorithmic, self-adaptive study speed improved BP network algorithmic were compared in predicting highway project main prices. The result indicated that it is feasible to predict highway main material prices using BP NN, and using self-adaptive study speed improved BP network algorithmic is the relatively best one.

The condition, development and suggestions of policy of the highway express freight transportation system in China

The highway express freight transportation (HEFT) is a new transportation organization form separated from the common freight transportation with economic development and incessant adjustment of highway transportation structure in China. At present, the phenomenon of inadaptability still exists in the HEFT system of China, from foundation structure like highways, parking lots and stations to transportation equipments and transportation organizing. In order to develop the HEFT system more rationally and effectively, we should start with the structure of the system, conform the resources existing, and consummate the freight transport system. In due course, relevant policies and measures to supervise, lead and support are necessary and important. This paper analyzes the existing problems of HEFT system in our country, based on its characteristics, development situation and adaptability, and presents the policy and measures of promoting and leading the development of the HEFT system.

Modeling study on transport organization methods choice of highway rapid passenger transport in China

Some new types of mathematical model among four key techno - economic indexes of highway rapid passenger through transportation were established based on the principles of transportation economics. According to the research on the feasible solutions to the associated parameters which were then compared to the actual value, found some limitation in the existing transport organization method. In order to conquer that, two new types of transport organization method, namely CD (Collecting and Distributing) Method and Relay Method were brought forward. What’s more, a further research was down to estimate their characteristics, such as feasibilities, operation flows, applicability fields, etc. This analysis proves the two methods can offset the shortage of rapid passenger through transportation. To ensure highway rapid passenger transport develop harmoniously, a three-stage development targets was suggested to fuse different organization methods.

Site survey and analysis of highway trucks overloading status quo in Anhui

In 2004, with the increasing overloading restriction requirements of society in Anhui, a provincial comprehensive overloading transportation survey has been developed to take evaluations on overloading actuality and enforcement efficiency with the support of the World Bank. A total of six site surveys were conducted at Hefei, Fuyang, Luan, Wuhu, Huainan and Huangshan Areas with four main contents respectively: traffic volume, axle load, freight information and registration information. Via statistical analysis on the survey data, conclusions were gained that: vehicle overloading are very universal and serious problems at arterial highways in Anhui now. The traffic loads have far exceeded the designed endure capacity of highways and have caused prevalent premature pavement damage, especially for rigid pavement. The overloading trucks are unimpeded engaged in highway freight transportation actually due to the disordered overloading enforcement strategies and the deficient inspecting technologies.

Gender and grade differences in upper elementary school children’s descriptive and evaluative self-statements and self-esteem

Gender and developmental differences in self-description, self-evaluation and self-esteem were investigated using 957 elementary school children in grades 3 to 7. Gender differences were found for six of the seven descriptive statements and for five of the seven evaluative statements. The major gender stereotypical findings from previous studies were replicated. Boys reported higher scores than girls on descriptive and evaluative statements about their physical abilities and mathematics, while girls reported higher scores on descriptive and evaluative statements about reading. Declines over time were noted for all self-evaluations except having good relations with peers and for global self-esteem, providing some support for the notion that the decline in self-concepts and self-esteem may be attributed to the children's perceptions of themselves becoming more accurate and less egocentric in line with their cognitive capacity to integrate external feedback realistically.