Survival analysis of time-to-event data in respiratory health research studies

This article provides a review of techniques for the analysis of survival data arising from respiratory health studies. Popular techniques such as the Kaplan–Meier survival plot and the Cox proportional hazards model are presented and illustrated using data from a lung cancer study. Advanced issues are also discussed, including parametric proportional hazards models, accelerated failure time models, time-varying explanatory variables, simultaneous analysis of multiple types of outcome events and the restricted mean survival time, a novel measure of the effect of treatment.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

Sequential monitoring of hospital adverse events when control charts fail : the example of fall injuries in hospitals

Objective To evaluate methods for monitoring monthly aggregated hospital adverse event data that display clustering, non-linear trends and possible autocorrelation. Design Retrospective audit. Setting The Northern Hospital, Melbourne, Australia. Participants 171,059 patients admitted between January 2001 and December 2006. Measurements The analysis is illustrated with 72 months of patient fall injury data using a modified Shewhart U control chart, and charts derived from a quasi-Poisson generalised linear model (GLM) and a generalised additive mixed model (GAMM) that included an approximate upper control limit. Results The data were overdispersed and displayed a downward trend and possible autocorrelation. The downward trend was followed by a predictable period after December 2003. The GLM-estimated incidence rate ratio was 0.98 (95% CI 0.98 to 0.99) per month. The GAMM-fitted count fell from 12.67 (95% CI 10.05 to 15.97) in January 2001 to 5.23 (95% CI 3.82 to 7.15) in December 2006 (p<0.001). The corresponding values for the GLM were 11.9 and 3.94. Residual plots suggested that the GLM underestimated the rate at the beginning and end of the series and overestimated it in the middle. The data suggested a more rapid rate fall before 2004 and a steady state thereafter, a pattern reflected in the GAMM chart. The approximate upper two-sigma equivalent control limit in the GLM and GAMM charts identified 2 months that showed possible special-cause variation. Conclusion Charts based on GAMM analysis are a suitable alternative to Shewhart U control charts with these data.

A recommendation system for predicting risks across multiple business process instances

This paper proposes a recommendation system that supports process participants in taking risk-informed decisions, with the goal of reducing risks that may arise during process execution. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a business process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to a risk of reputation loss, we enact this process and whenever a process participant needs to provide input to the process, e.g. by selecting the next task to execute or by filling out a form, we suggest to the participant the action to perform which minimizes the predicted process risk. Risks are predicted by traversing decision trees generated from the logs of past process executions, which consider process data, involved resources, task durations and other information elements like task frequencies. When applied in the context of multiple process instances running concurrently, a second technique is employed that uses integer linear programming to compute the optimal assignment of resources to tasks to be performed, in order to deal with the interplay between risks relative to different instances. The recommendation system has been implemented as a set of components on top of the YAWL BPM system and its effectiveness has been evaluated using a real-life scenario, in collaboration with risk analysts of a large insurance company. The results, based on a simulation of the real-life scenario and its comparison with the event data provided by the company, show that the process instances executed concurrently complete with significantly fewer faults and with lower fault severities, when the recommendations provided by our recommendation system are taken into account.

Liquid Business Process Model Collections

Many organizations realize that increasing amounts of data (“Big Data”) need to be dealt with intelligently in order to compete with other organizations in terms of efficiency, speed and services. The goal is not to collect as much data as possible, but to turn event data into valuable insights that can be used to improve business processes. However, data-oriented analysis approaches fail to relate event data to process models. At the same time, large organizations are generating piles of process models that are disconnected from the real processes and information systems. In this chapter we propose to manage large collections of process models and event data in an integrated manner. Observed and modeled behavior need to be continuously compared and aligned. This results in a “liquid” business process model collection, i.e. a collection of process models that is in sync with the actual organizational behavior. The collection should self-adapt to evolving organizational behavior and incorporate relevant execution data (e.g. process performance and resource utilization) extracted from the logs, thereby allowing insightful reports to be produced from factual organizational data.

Stop-signal response inhibition in schizophrenia : Behavioural, event-related potential and functional neuroimaging data

Inhibitory control deficits are well documented in schizophrenia, supported by impairment in an established measure of response inhibition, the stop-signal reaction time (SSRT). We investigated the neural basis of this impairment by comparing schizophrenia patients and controls matched for age, sex and education on behavioural, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and event-related potential (ERP) indices of stop-signal task performance. Compared to controls, patients exhibited slower SSRT and reduced right inferior frontal gyrus (rIFG) activation, but rIFG activation correlated with SSRT in both groups. Go stimulus and stop-signal ERP components (N1/P3) were smaller in patients, but the peak latencies of stop-signal N1 and P3 were also delayed in patients, indicating impairment early in stop-signal processing. Additionally, response-locked lateralised readiness potentials indicated response preparation was prolonged in patients. An inability to engage rIFG may predicate slowed inhibition in patients, however multiple spatiotemporal irregularities in the networks underpinning stop-signal task performance may contribute to this deficit.

Using a glow graph to represent data flow and dependency in event logs

The idea of extracting knowledge in process mining is a descendant of data mining. Both mining disciplines emphasise data flow and relations among elements in the data. Unfortunately, challenges have been encountered when working with the data flow and relations. One of the challenges is that the representation of the data flow between a pair of elements or tasks is insufficiently simplified and formulated, as it considers only a one-to-one data flow relation. In this paper, we discuss how the effectiveness of knowledge representation can be extended in both disciplines. To this end, we introduce a new representation of the data flow and dependency formulation using a flow graph. The flow graph solves the issue of the insufficiency of presenting other relation types, such as many-to-one and one-to-many relations. As an experiment, a new evaluation framework is applied to the Teleclaim process in order to show how this method can provide us with more precise results when compared with other representations.

An investigation of differences in crash characteristics between males and females involved in a fatigue-related crash or close call event

There is consensus among community and road safety agencies that driver fatigue is a major road safety issue and it is well known that excessive fatigue is linked with an increased risk of a motor vehicle crash. Previous research has implicated a wide variety of factors involved in fatigue-related crashes and the effects of these various factors in regard to crash risk can be interpreted as causal (i.e. alcohol and/or drugs may induce fatigue states) or additive (e.g. where a lack of sleep is combined with alcohol). As such, the purpose of this investigation was to examine self-report data to determine whether there are any differences in the prevalence, crash characteristics, and travel patterns of males and females involved in a fatigue-related crash or close call event. Such research is important to understand how fatigue related incidents occur within the typical driving patterns of men and women and it provides a starting point in order to explore if males and females experience and understand the risk of diving when tired in the same way. A representative sample of (N = 1,600) residents living in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and New South Wales (NSW), Australia, were surveyed regarding their experience of fatigue and their involvement in fatigue-related crashes and close call incidents. Results revealed that over 35% of participants reported having had a close call or crash due to driving when tired in the five years prior to the study being conducted. In addition, the results obtained revealed a number of interesting characteristics that provide preliminary evidence that gender differences do exist when examining the prevalence, crash characteristics, and travel patterns of males and females involved in a fatigue-related crash or close call event. It is argued that the results obtained can provide particularly useful information for the refinement and further development of appropriate countermeasures that better target this complex issue.

Building partnerships as a key strategy in developing an event management model for an international dance event : a case study of the 2008 WDA (World Dance Alliance) Global Summit, Brisbane, Australia

With the increasing growth of cultural events both in Australia and internationally, there has also been an increase in event management studies; in theory and in practice. Although a series of related knowledge and skills required specifically by event managers has already been identified by many researchers (Perry et al., 1996; Getz, 2002 & Silvers et al., 2006) and generic event management models proposed, including ‘project management’ strategies in an event context (Getz, 2007), knowledge gaps still exist in relation to identifying specific types of events, especially for not-for-profit arts events. For events of a largely voluntary nature, insufficient resources are recognised as the most challenging; including finance, human resources and infrastructure. Therefore, the concepts and principles which are adopted by large scale commercial events may not be suitable for not-for-profit arts events aiming at providing professional network opportunities for artists. Building partnerships are identified as a key strategy in developing an effective event management model for this type of event. Using the 2008 World Dance Alliance Global Summit (WDAGS) in Brisbane 13-18 July, as a case study, the level, nature and relationship of key partners are investigated. Data is triangulated from interviews with organisers of the 2008 WDAGS, on-line and email surveys of delegates, participant observation and analysis of formal and informal documents, to produce a management model suited to this kind of event.

ERTP : Energy-efficient and reliable transport protocol for data streaming in wireless sensor networks

Emerging data streaming applications in Wireless Sensor Networks require reliable and energy-efficient Transport Protocols. Our recent Wireless Sensor Network deployment in the Burdekin delta, Australia, for water monitoring [T. Le Dinh, W. Hu, P. Sikka, P. Corke, L. Overs, S. Brosnan, Design and deployment of a remote robust sensor network: experiences from an outdoor water quality monitoring network, in: Second IEEE Workshop on Practical Issues in Building Sensor Network Applications (SenseApp 2007), Dublin, Ireland, 2007] is one such example. This application involves streaming sensed data such as pressure, water flow rate, and salinity periodically from many scattered sensors to the sink node which in turn relays them via an IP network to a remote site for archiving, processing, and presentation. While latency is not a primary concern in this class of application (the sampling rate is usually in terms of minutes or hours), energy-efficiency is. Continuous long-term operation and reliable delivery of the sensed data to the sink are also desirable. This paper proposes ERTP, an Energy-efficient and Reliable Transport Protocol for Wireless Sensor Networks. ERTP is designed for data streaming applications, in which sensor readings are transmitted from one or more sensor sources to a base station (or sink). ERTP uses a statistical reliability metric which ensures the number of data packets delivered to the sink exceeds the defined threshold. Our extensive discrete event simulations and experimental evaluations show that ERTP is significantly more energyefficient than current approaches and can reduce energy consumption by more than 45% when compared to current approaches. Consequently, sensor nodes are more energy-efficient and the lifespan of the unattended WSN is increased.