Predicting stock market returns and volatility with investor sentiment : evidence from eight developed countries

We test the predictive ability of investor sentiment on the return and volatility at the aggregate market level in the U.S., four largest European countries and three Asia-Pacific countries. We find that in the U.S., France and Italy periods of high consumer confidence levels are followed by low market returns. In Japan both the level and the change in consumer confidence boost the market return in the next month. Further, shifts in sentiment significantly move conditional volatility in most of the countries, and in Italy such impacts lead to an increase in returns by 4.7% in the next month.

Meta-regulation approach of law : a potential legal strategy to develop socially responsible business self-regulation in least developed common law countries

In the corporate regulation landscape, 'meta-regulation' is a comparatively new legal approach. The sketchy role of state promulgated authoritative laws in pluralized society and scepticism in corporate self-regulation's role have resulted in the development of this legal approach. It has opened up possibilities to synthesize corporate governance to add social values in corporate self-regulation. The core of this approach is the fusion of responsive and reflexive legal strategies to combine regulators and regulatees for reaching a particular goal. This paper argues that it is a potential strategy that can be successfully deployed to develop a socially responsible corporate culture for the business enterprises, so that they will be able to acquire social, environmental and ethical values in their self-regulation sustainably. Taking Bangladeshi corporate laws as an instance, this paper also evaluates the scope of incorporating this approach in laws of the least developed common law countries in general.

The influence of fatalistic beliefs on risky road use behavior in developing countries

There is little discussion of fatalism in the road safety literature, and limited research. However, fatalism is a potential barrier to participation in health-promoting behaviours, particularly among the populations of developing countries and to some extent in developed countries. Many people still believe in divine discretion and magical powers as causes of road crashes in different parts of the world. Fatalistic beliefs and beliefs in mystical powers and superstition appear to influence perceptions of crash risk and consequently lead people to take risks and neglect safety measures. Fatalistic beliefs may cause individuals to be resigned to risks because they cannot do anything to reduce these risks.

Elements of public asset management framework for local governments in developing countries

There is a widespread recognition to the need of better manage municipal property in most cities in the world. Structural problems across regional, state, and territorial governments that have legal powers to own and maintain real property are similar, regardless of the level of development of each country. Start from a very basic level of property inventory records. The need for better manage to the local government owned property is the result of widespread decentralisation initiatives that often have devolved huge property portfolios from central to local governments almost “overnight”. At the same time municipal or regional governments were and continue to be unprepared to deal with multiple issues related to the role of property owners and managers. The lack of discussion of public asset management especially the elements that should be incorporated in the framework creates an important challenge to study the discipline of public asset management further. The aim of this paper is to study the practices of public asset management in developed countries, especially the elements of public asset management framework, and its transferability to developing countries. A case study was selected and conducted to achieve this aim. They involved interviews and a focus group. The study found that in public asset management framework, proper asset identification, public asset needs analysis, asset life cycle and performance measurements are an important element that should be incorporated in the framework. Those elements are transferable and applicable to developing countries’ local governments. Finally, findings from this study provide useful input for the local government policy makers, scholars and asset management practitioners to establish a public asset management framework toward more efficient and effective local governments in managing their assets as well as increasing public services quality.

Fatalism and road safety in developing countries, with a focus on Pakistan

Road crashes are a significant problem in developing countries such as Pakistan. Attitudes are among the human factors which influence risky road use and receptiveness to interventions. Fatalism is a set of attitudes known to be important in Pakistan and other developing countries; however it is rarely addressed in the road safety literature. Two broad types of fatalism are “theological fatalism” and “empirical fatalism”, both of which are found in developed countries as well as in developing countries. Where research has been conducted into the issue, fatalism is considered to interfere with messages aimed at improving road safety. Pakistan has a serious road crash problem, and there is sufficient information to suggest that fatalism is an important contributing factor to the problem, but a better understanding of how fatalism operates in Pakistan is needed if effective prevention strategies are to be developed. A proposed study using an anthropological approach is described which will be exploratory in nature and which is aimed at investigating fatalism and related concepts among Pakistani road users and those who develop and implement road safety policy.

Enabling access to research data in developing countries : designing a policy and practice framework for Malaysia’s Public Research Universities

Members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) are obliged to implement the Agreement on Trade-related Intellectual Property Rights 1994 (TRIPS) which establishes minimum standards for the protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights. Almost two decades after TRIPS was adopted at the conclusion of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations, it is widely accepted that intellectual property systems in developing and least-developed countries must be consistent with, and serve, their development needs and objectives. In adopting the Development Agenda in 2007, the World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO) emphasised the importance to developing and least-developed countries of being able to obtain access to knowledge and technology and to participate in collaborations and exchanges with research and scientific institutions in other countries. Access to knowledge, information and technology is crucial if creativity and innovation is to be fostered in developing and least-developed countries. It is particularly important that developing and least-developed countries give effect to their TRIPS obligations by implementing intellectual property systems and adopting intellectual property management practices that enable them to benefit from knowledge flows and support their engagement in international research and science collaborations. However, developing and least-developed countries did not participate in the deliberations leading to the adoption in 2004 by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries of the Ministerial Declaration on Access to Research Data from Public Funding, nor have they formulated policies on access to publicly funded research outputs such as those developed by the National Institutes of Health in the United States, the United Kingdom Research Councils or the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. These issues are considered from the viewpoint of Malaysia, a developing country whose economy has grown strongly in recent years. Lacking an established policy covering access to the outputs of publicly funded research, data sharing and licensing practices continue to be fragmented. Obtaining access to research data requires arrangements to be negotiated with individual data owners and custodians. Given the potential for restrictions on access to impact negatively on scientific progress and development in Malaysia, measures are required to ensure that access to knowledge and research results is facilitated. This paper proposes a policy framework for Malaysia‘s public research universities that recognises intellectual property rights while enabling the open access to research data that is essential for innovation and development. It also considers how intellectual property rights in research data can be managed in order to give effect to the policy‘s open access objectives.

Evidence based healthcare planning in developing countries : an informatics perspective

Most of the national Health Information Systems (HIS) in resource limited developing countries do not serve the purpose of management support and thus the service is adversely affected. While emphasising the importance of timely and accurate health information in decision making in healthcare planning, this paper explains that Health Management Information System Failure is commonly seen in developing countries as well as the developed countries. It is suggested that the possibility of applying principles of Health Informatics and the technology of Decision Support Systems should be seriously considered to improve the situation. A brief scientific explanation of the evolution of these two disciplines is included.

Why are pedestrian crashes so different in developing countries? A review of relevant factors in relation to their impact in Ethiopia

Much is known about pedestrian behaviour and crash risk in developed countries. In contrast, the literature on pedestrian crash risk in developing countries reveals wide gaps in knowledge and understanding, and a comprehensive assessment is lacking. In particular, pedestrian behaviour in developing countries is fundamentally different in comparison to developed countries, and is influenced by a variety of less well understood contributing factors, leading to difficulty in modelling and predicting pedestrian crash risk and in turn identifying effective safety countermeasures. This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of the factors known to influence pedestrian crash risk in developing countries, then focuses on Ethiopia as a specific example. The paper identifies where critical gaps in knowledge exist regarding pedestrian crash risk and associated behaviour in developing countries--a set of knowledge gaps which collectively are significant. The paper concludes by articulating a critical research path moving forward, with the aim to achieve an improved understanding of developing country pedestrian crash risk, and an ultimate goal of identifying effective pedestrian safety countermeasures suited to the unique challenges faced by transport system managers in developing countries.

The effect of trade openness on deforestation: empirical analysis for 142 countries

This study explores the effect of trade openness on deforestation. Previous studies do not find a clear effect of trade openness on deforestation. We use updated data on the annual rate of deforestation for 142 countries from 1990 to 2003, treat trade and income as endogenous, and take into consideration an adjustment process by applying a dynamic model. We find that an increase in trade openness increases deforestation for non-OECD countries while slowing down deforestation for OECD countries. There is a possibility that both capital-labor and environmental-regulation effects have a negative impact on deforestation in developing countries, whereas the opposite holds in developed countries. © 2012 Springer Japan.

Traffic and nucleation events as main sources of ultrafine particles in high-insolation developed world cities

Road traffic emissions are often considered the main source of ultrafine particles (UFP, diameter smaller than 100 nm) in urban environments. However, recent studies worldwide have shown that - in high-insolation urban regions at least - new particle formation events can also contribute to UFP. In order to quantify such events we systematically studied three cities located in predominantly sunny environments: Barcelona (Spain), Madrid (Spain) and Brisbane (Australia). Three long term datasets (1-2 years) of fine and ultrafine particle number size distributions (measured by SMPS, Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer) were analysed. Compared to total particle number concentrations, aerosol size distributions offer far more information on the type, origin and atmospheric evolution of the particles. By applying k-Means clustering analysis, we categorized the collected aerosol size distributions in three main categories: “Traffic” (prevailing 44-63% of the time), “Nucleation” (14-19%) and “Background pollution and Specific cases” (7-22%). Measurements from Rome (Italy) and Los Angeles (California) were also included to complement the study. The daily variation of the average UFP concentrations for a typical nucleation day at each site revealed a similar pattern for all cities, with three distinct particle bursts. A morning and an evening spike reflected traffic rush hours, whereas a third one at midday showed nucleation events. The photochemically nucleated particles burst lasted 1-4 hours, reaching sizes of 30-40 nm. On average, the occurrence of particle size spectra dominated by nucleation events was 16% of the time, showing the importance of this process as a source of UFP in urban environments exposed to high solar radiation. On average, nucleation events lasting for 2 hours or more occurred on 55% of the days, this extending to >4hrs in 28% of the days, demonstrating that atmospheric conditions in urban environments are not favourable to the growth of photochemically nucleated particles. In summary, although traffic remains the main source of UFP in urban areas, in developed countries with high insolation urban nucleation events are also a main source of UFP. If traffic-related particle concentrations are reduced in the future, nucleation events will likely increase in urban areas, due to the reduced urban condensation sinks.

International epidemiology of prostate cancer : geographical distribution and secular trends

This review outlines current international patterns in prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates and survival, including recent trends and a discussion of the possible impact of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing on the observed data. Internationally, prostate cancer is the second most common cancer diagnosed among men (behind lung cancer), and is the sixth most common cause of cancer death among men. Prostate cancer is particularly prevalent in developed countries such as the United States and the Scandinavian countries, with about a six-fold difference between high-incidence and low-incidence countries. Interpretation of trends in incidence and survival are complicated by the increasing impact of PSA testing, particularly in more developed countries. As Western influences become more pronounced in less developed countries, prostate cancer incidence rates in those countries are tending to increase, even though the prevalence of PSA testing is relatively low. Larger proportions of younger men are being diagnosed with prostate cancer and living longer following diagnosis of prostate cancer, which has many implications for health systems. Decreasing mortality rates are becoming widespread among more developed countries, although it is not clear whether this is due to earlier diagnosis (PSA testing), improved treatment, or some combination of these or other factors.

Performance Benchmarking of Australian Business Regulation : Submission to the Productivity Commission

The need to “reduce red tape” and regulatory inconsistencies is a desirable outcome (OECD 1997) for developed countries. The costs normally associated with regulatory regimes are compliance costs and direct charges. Geiger and Hoffman (1998) have noted that the extent of regulation in an industry tends to be negatively associated with firm performance. Typically, approaches to estimation of the cost of regulations examine direct costs, such as fees and charges, together with indirect costs, such as compliance costs. However, in a fragmented system, such as Australia, costs can also be incurred due to procedural delays, either by government, or by industry having to adapt documentation for different spheres of government; lack of predictable outcomes, with variations occurring between spheres of government and sometimes within the same government agency; and lost business opportunities, with delays and red tape preventing realisation of business opportunities (OECD 1997). In this submission these costs are termed adaptation costs. The adaptation costs of complying with variations in regulations between the states has been estimated by the Building Product Innovation Council (2003) as being up to $600 million per annum for building product manufacturers alone. Productivity gains from increased harmonisation of the regulatory system have been estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars (ABCB 2003). This argument is supported by international research which found that increasing the harmonisation of legislation in a federal system of government reduces what we have termed adaptation costs (OECD 2001). Research reports into the construction industry in Australia have likewise argued that improved consistency in the regulatory environment could lead to improvements in innovation (PriceWaterhouseCoopers 2002), and that research into this area should be given high priority (Hampson & Brandon 2004). The opinion of industry in Australia has consistently held that the current regulatory environment inhibits innovation (Manley 2004). As a first step in advancing improvements to the current situation, a summary of the current costs experienced by industry needs to be articulated. This executive summary seeks to outline these costs in the hope that the Productivity Commission would be able to identify the best tools to quantify the actual costs to industry.

Humanistic science education : moves from within and challenges from without

For a number of years now it has been evident that the major issue facing science educators in the more developed countries of the world is the quantitative decline in enrolments in the senior secondary sciences, particularly the physical sciences, and in the number of higher achieving students applying for places in universities to undertake further studies in science. The deep malaise in school science to which these quantitative measures point has been elucidated by more qualitative studies of the students’ experience of studying science in secondary school in several of these countries (Sweden, Lindahl (2003); England, Simon and Osborne (2002); and Australia, Lyons (2005)). Remarkably concordant descriptions of these experiences can be summarized as: School science is: • transmission of knowledge from the teacher or the textbook to the students. • about content that is irrelevant and boring to our lives. • difficult to learn in comparison with other subjects Incidentally, the Australian study only involved consistently high achieving students; but even so, most of them found science more difficult than other more interesting subjects, and concluded that further science studies should be avoided unless they were needed for some career purpose. Other more representative confirmations of negative evaluations of the science curricula across Australia (and in particular states) are now available in Australia, from the large scale reviews of Goodrum, Hackling and Rennie (2001) and from the TIMSS (2002). The former reported that well under half of secondary students find the science at school relevant to my future, useful ion everyday life, deals with things I am concerned with and helps me make decisions about my health.. TIMSS found that 62 and 65 % of females and males in Year 4 agree with I like learning science, but by Year 8 only 26 and 33 % still agree. Students in Japan have been doubly notably because of (a) their high performance in international measures of science achievement like TIMSS and PISA and (b) their very low response to items in these studies which relate to interest in science. Ogura (2003) reported an intra-national study of students across Years 6-9 (upper primary through Junior High); interest in a range of their subjects (including science) that make up that country’s national curriculum. There was a steady decline in interest in all these subjects which might have indicated an adolescent reaction against schooling generally. However, this study went on to ask the students a further question that is very meaningful in the Japanese context, If you discount the importance of this subject for university entrance, is it worth studying? Science and mathematics remained in decline while all the other subjects were seen more positively. It is thus ironic, at a time when some innovations in curriculum and other research-based findings are suggesting ways that these failures of school science might be corrected, to find school science under a new demands that come from quite outside science education, and which certainly do not have the correction of this malaise as a priority. The positive curricular and research findings can be characterized as moves from within science education, whereas the new demands are moves that come from without science education. In this paper I set out these two rather contrary challenges to the teaching of science as it is currently practised, and go on to suggest a way forward that could fruitfully combine the two.

Burden of care and general health in families of patients with schizophrenia

Background: De-institutionalization of psychiatric patients has led to a greater emphasis on family management in the community, and family members are often overwhelmed by the demands that caring for a patient with schizophrenia involves. Most studies of family burden in schizophrenia have taken place in developed countries. The current study examined family burden and its correlates in a regional area of a medium income country in South America. Method: Sixty-five relatives of patients with schizophrenia who were attending a public mental health out-patient service in the province of Arica, Chile, were assessed on Spanish versions of the Zarit Caregiver Burden Scale and SF-36 Health Survey (SF-36). Results: Average levels of burden were very high, particularly for mothers, carers with less education, carers of younger patients and carers of patients with more hospitalisations in the previous 3 years. Kinship and number of recent hospitalisations retained unique predictive variance in a multiple regression. Burden was the strongest predictor of SF-36 subscales, and the prediction from burden remained significant after entry of other potential predictors. Conclusions: In common with families in developed countries, family members of schizophrenia patients in regional Chile reported high levels of burden and related functional and health impact. The study highlighted the support needs of carers in contexts with high rates of poverty and limited health and community resources.

An Analysis of UK Farmland : 1981-2004

The importance of agriculture in many countries has tended to reduce as their economies move from a resource base to a manufacturing industry base. Although the level of agricultural production in first world countries has increased over the past two decades, this increase has generally been at a less significant rate compared to other sectors of the economies. Despite this increase in secondary and high technology industries, developed countries have continued to encourage and support their agricultural industries. This support has been through both tariffs and price support. Although the average farm production property may require this support to maintain long-term production, the better farms can actually achieve production levels and commodity prices that result in these units being competitive on a free market basis. This paper will analyse the total return performance of UK farmland over the period 1981-2004. This analysis will compare the total return from rural properties in the UK and compare this performance to commercial property returns (total, office, retail, industrial), equities and gilts over this 24-year period. The analysis will be based on the IPD UK let land index and the IPD property index. The portfolio diversification and risk-reduction benefits of UK farmland will be highlighted. The analysis shows that rural property has negative correlations with equities and gilts, as well as insignificant positive correlations with retail, industrial and office property. Rural property also provides portfolio diversification benefits.