Implicit discount rates and fisheries management : is there a relationship?

Fishers are faced with multiple risks, including unpredictability of future catch rates, prices and costs. While the latter are largely beyond the control of fisheries managers, effective fisheries management should reduce uncertainty about future catches. Different management instruments are likely to have different impacts on the risk perception of fishers, and this should manifest itself in their implicit discount rate. Assuming licence and quota values represent the net present value of the flow of expected future profits, then a proxy for the implicit discount rate of vessels in a fishery can be derived by the ratio of the average level of profits to the average licence/quota value. From this, an indication of the risk perception can be derived, assuming higher discount rates reflect higher levels of systematic risk. In this paper, we apply the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to determine the risk premium implicit in the discount rates for a range of Australian fisheries, and compare this with the set of management instruments in place. We test the assumption that rights based management instruments lower perceptions of risk in fisheries. We find little evidence to support this assumption. although the analysis was based on only limited data.

Forecasting volatility and correlation : the role of option implied measures

Forecasts of volatility and correlation are important inputs into many practical financial problems. Broadly speaking, there are two ways of generating forecasts of these variables. Firstly, time-series models apply a statistical weighting scheme to historical measurements of the variable of interest. The alternative methodology extracts forecasts from the market traded value of option contracts. An efficient options market should be able to produce superior forecasts as it utilises a larger information set of not only historical information but also the market equilibrium expectation of options market participants. While much research has been conducted into the relative merits of these approaches, this thesis extends the literature along several lines through three empirical studies. Firstly, it is demonstrated that there exist statistically significant benefits to taking the volatility risk premium into account for the implied volatility for the purposes of univariate volatility forecasting. Secondly, high-frequency option implied measures are shown to lead to superior forecasts of the intraday stochastic component of intraday volatility and that these then lead on to superior forecasts of intraday total volatility. Finally, the use of realised and option implied measures of equicorrelation are shown to dominate measures based on daily returns.

Estimating the parameters of stochastic volatility models using option price data

This article describes a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of the standard square-root stochastic volatility model and a variant of the model that includes jumps in equity prices. The model is fitted to data on the S&P 500 Index and the prices of vanilla options written on the index, for the period 1990 to 2011. The method is able to estimate both the parameters of the physical measure (associated with the index) and the parameters of the risk-neutral measure (associated with the options), including the volatility and jump risk premia. The estimation is implemented using a particle filter whose efficacy is demonstrated under simulation. The computational load of this estimation method, which previously has been prohibitive, is managed by the effective use of parallel computing using graphics processing units (GPUs). The empirical results indicate that the parameters of the models are reliably estimated and consistent with values reported in previous work. In particular, both the volatility risk premium and the jump risk premium are found to be significant.

A sunburnt country – storms, surges and sea levels : of insurance and flooding rains

Increasing population pressures and life-style choices are resulting in more people living in areas that are at risk of inundation from rising sea levels and flooding. However, following natural disaster events, such as the 2011 Queensland floods, many Australians discovered they were uninsured. Either their insurance policies did not cover flood; or multiple (and confusing) water-related definitions led them to believe they had cover when they did not. Several theories are analysed to try to explain what is a world-wide underinsurance problem but these do not provide an answer to the problem. This research focuses on uncovering the reasons consumers fail to adequately insure for flood and other water-related events. Recent Australian legislative attempts to overcome insureds’ confusion of water related definitions are examined for this purpose. The authors conclude that Australian and other) legislators should set a maximum premium for a minimum amount of flood and sea related cover; and restrict the building and style of homes in flood prone areas.

Inequalities in cardiovascular disease mortality : the role of behavioural, physiological and social risk factors

Background: While the relationship between socioeconomic disadvantage and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well established, the role that traditional cardiovascular risk factors play in this association remains unclear. We examined the association between education attainment and CVD mortality and the extent to which behavioural, social and physiological factors explained this relationship. Methods: Adults (n=38 355) aged 40-69 years living in Melbourne, Australia were recruited in 1990-1994. Subjects with baseline CVD risk factor data ascertained through questionnaire and physical measurement were followed for an average of 9.4 years with CVD deaths verified by review of medical records and autopsy reports. Results: CVD mortality was higher for those with primary education only compared to those who had completed tertiary education, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.66 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-2.49) after adjustment for age, country of birth and gender. Those from the lowest educated group had a more adverse cardiovascular risk factor profile compared to the highest educated group, and adjustment for these risk factors reduced the HR to 1.18 (95% CI 0.78-1.77). In analysis of individual risk factors, smoking and waist circumference explained most of the difference in CVD mortality between the highest and lowest education groups. Conclusions: Most of the excess CVD mortality in lower socioeconomic groups can be explained by known risk factors, particularly smoking and overweight. While targeting cardiovascular risk factors should not divert efforts from addressing the underlying determinants of health inequalities, it is essential that known risk factors are addressed effectively among lower socioeconomic groups.

Risk, trust, and consumer online purchasing behaviour : a Chilean perspective

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate Latin American online purchase behaviour with a specific focus on the influence of perceived risk and trust. While studies of this nature have been conducted quite extensively in developed countries, their application in developing countries, such as Latin America is limited. Our study addresses this gap in the literature with an empirical study conducted in Chile. Design/methodology/approach: The authors develop and test a proposed model of the influence of consumer’s perceptions of risk and trust on their attitudes and intentions to purchase on the Internet. An online survey method is used. The sample consists of 176 Chilean consumers who have made at least one purchase online. The data is analysed using structural equation modelling technique (SEM). Findings: The analysis revealed that of the perceived risk and trust factors examined, trust in third party assurances and a cultural environment of trust had the strongest positive influence on intentions to continuing purchasing online. Perceived risk had an inverse relationship with attitude and consumers’ attitude has a positive influence on intentions to purchase online. Trust in online vendors and a propensity to trust were both insignificant. Practical implications: Practically, these results identity which risk and trust beliefs towards purchasing online have the most effect thereby providing insights into how companies should seek to mitigate perceptions of risk to encourage new and return purchasers. Additionally, this research shows that consumers in a Latin American country, recognised as a collectivist, high risk avoidance culture, are willing to make purchases online despite the risks involved. Originality/value: The study and its results is one of few available that consider a Latin American context. The value of the findings provides insights into the specific risk and trust factors that influence Chilean consumers when considering purchasing online. The tested model adds value not only to the literature on Latin American consumer behaviour but also provides guidance for companies offering online retailing facilities in these less developed countries.

Achieving safe road use in a rapidly motorising country : The influence of longstanding beliefs on risky driver behaviour in Pakistan

Road crashes are one of the most significant public health problems in Pakistan; however the factors that contribute to road crashes in Pakistan are not well-researched. Traditional beliefs and values can act as a barrier to health-promoting and injury prevention behaviours, in general and especially in relation to road safety, and may also contribute to risk-taking behaviours. Such beliefs can present significant challenges for health advocates who aim to change behaviour in order to avert road crashes and diminish their consequences. Qualitative research was undertaken in Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Lahore with a range of drivers, religious orators, police and policy makers to explore cultural and religious beliefs and their association with risky road use, and to understand how they might affect development of road safety interventions. The findings highlight a range of issues, including the identification of aspects of beliefs that have complex social implications when designing safety intervention strategies. The pervasive nature of religious and superstitious beliefs in Pakistan can affect road user behaviour by reinforcing the presumption that the individual has no part to play in safety, thereby supporting continued risk taking behaviour. It is anticipated that the findings could be used to inform the design of interventions aimed at influencing broad-spectrum health attitudes and practices among the communities where such beliefs are prevalent.

A comparison of factors influencing perceived risk by French and Australian cyclists and drivers

Differences in the levels of risk perceived by cyclists and car drivers may contribute to the dangers in their interactions. Levels of perceived risk have been shown to vary according to personal and environmental factors and between countries. Cycling rates in France are higher than in Australia, particularly among women. This study investigated whether cultural differences between France and Australia are reflected in perceived risks for experienced adult cyclists and drivers in the two countries. In online surveys, regular cyclists (France 336, Australia 444) and drivers (France 92, Australia 151) were asked to rate the level of risk in six situations: failure to yield; going through a red light; not signalling when turning; swerving; tail-gating; and not checking traffic. The effects of type of interacting vehicle and participant type on perceived risk were similar in France and Australia. However, the influence of responsibility for the risky behaviour differed according to participant type, type of situation and nationality. When the bicycle rider committed the road rule violation, Australian cyclists and drivers gave higher risk ratings than French cyclists and drivers. In both countries, cyclists rated themselves significantly higher than drivers on the perceived control and overconfidence subscales of the perceived skill measure. The French cyclists rated themselves higher than Australian cyclists on these scales, which could be responsible for overall lower perceived risk levels when interacting with a bike. Australian cyclists rated themselves significantly lower than drivers on the incompetence subscale but French cyclists rated themselves higher than drivers. In both countries incompetence scores were positively related to levels of perceived risk. Weekly time was associated with perceived risk in Australia but not in France. Frequency of traffic violations was not associated with perceived risk in either country. In conclusion, levels of perceived risk differed between drivers and cyclists in both countries and were influenced by type of interacting vehicle, experience and perceived skill. However, some differences between the results from the two countries merit further investigation to shed light on potential improvements in safety and cycling participation.

Prevalence of asymptomatic malaria and bed net ownership and use in Bhutan, 2013 : a country earmarked for malaria elimination

Background With dwindling malaria cases in Bhutan in recent years, the government of Bhutan has made plans for malaria elimination by 2016. This study aimed to determine coverage, use and ownership of LLINs, as well as the prevalence of asymptomatic malaria at a single time-point, in four sub-districts of Bhutan. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out in August 2013. Structured questionnaires were administered to a single respondent in each household (HH) in four sub-districts. Four members from 25 HH, randomly selected from each sub-district, were tested using rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) for asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with LLIN use and maintenance. Results All blood samples from 380 participants tested negative for Plasmodium infections. A total of 1,223 HH (92.5% of total HH) were surveyed for LLIN coverage and use. Coverage of LLINs was 99.0% (1,203/1,223 HH). Factors associated with decreased odds of sleeping under a LLIN included: washing LLINs nine months compared to washing LLINs every six months; HH in the least poor compared to the most poor socio-economic quintile; a HH income of Nu 5,001-10,000 (US$1 = Nu 59.55), and Nu >10,000, compared to HH with income of risk communities during the peak malaria season, it appears Bhutan is on course to achieve malaria elimination.

The unequal distribution of road trauma in China : understanding risk factors to improve public health

The World Health Organization identifies road trauma as a major public health issue in every country; most notably among low-to-middle income countries. More than 90% of all road fatalities occur in these countries, although they have only 48% of all registered vehicles [1]. Unprecedented focus has been placed on reducing the global road trauma burden through the United Nations Decade of Action for Road Safety (2011-2020). China is rapidly transitioning from a nation of bicycle riders and pedestrians to one where car ownership and use is increasing. This transition presents important public health, mobility, and safety challenges. Rapid motorisation has resulted in an increased road trauma burden, shouldered disproportionately among the population. Vulnerable road users (bicyclists, pedestrians, and motorcyclists) are of particular concern, representing 70% of all road-related fatalities [1]. Furthermore, those at greatest risk of sustaining a crash-related disability are: male, older, less educated, and earning a lower income [2] and residing in urban areas [3], with higher fatality rates in north-western poorer provinces [3]. Speeding is a key factor in road crashes in China [1, 4] and is one of two risk factors targeted in the Bloomberg Philanthropies-funded Global Road Safety Program operating in two Chinese cities over five year [5] to which the first author has provided expert advice. However, little evidence exists to help understand the factors underpinning speeding behaviour. Previous research conducted by the authors in Beijing and Hangzhou explored personal, social, and legal factors relating to speeding to assist in better understanding the motivations for non-compliance with speed limits. Qualitative and quantitative research findings indicated that speeding is relatively common, including self-reported travel speeds of greater than 30 km/hour above posted speed limits [6], and that the road safety laws and enforcement practices may, in some circumstances, contribute to this [7]. Normative factors were also evident; the role of friends, family members and driving instructors were influential. Additionally, using social networks to attempt to avoid detection and penalty was reported, thereby potentially reinforcing community perceptions that speeding is acceptable [8, 9]. The authors established strong collaborative links with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Zhejiang Police College to conduct this research. The first author has worked in both institutions for extended time periods and recognises that research must include an understanding of culturally-relevant issues if road safety is to improve in China. Future collaborations to assist in enhancing our understanding of such issues are welcomed. References [1] World Health Organization. (2009). Global status report on road safety: Time for action; Geneva. [2] Chen, H., Du, W., & Li, N. (2013). The socioeconomic inequality in traffic-related disability among Chinese adults: the application of concentration index. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 55(101-106). [3] Wang, S. Y., Li, Y. H., Chi, G. B., Xiao, S. Y., Ozanne-Smith, J., Stevenson, M., & Phillips, M. (2008). Injury-related fatalities in China: an under-recognised public-health problem. The Lancet (British edition), 372(9651), 1765-1773. [4] He, J., King, M. J., Watson, B., Rakotonirainy, A., & Fleiter, J. J. (2013). Speed enforcement in China: National, provincial and city initiatives and their success. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 50, 282-288. [5] Bhalla, K., Li, Q., Duan, L., Wang, Y., Bishai, D., & Hyder, A. A. (2013). The prevalence of speeding and drink driving in two cities in China: a mid project evaluation of ongoing road safety interventions. Injury, 44, 49-56. doi:10.1016/S0020-1383(13)70213-4. [6] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., & Lennon, A. (2013). Awareness of risky behaviour among Chinese drivers. Peer-reviewed paper presented at 23rd Canadian Multidisciplinary Road Safety Conference, Montréal, Québec. [7] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Lennon, A., King, M. J., & Shi, K. (2009). Speeding in Australia and China: A comparison of the influence of legal sanctions and enforcement practices on car drivers. Peer-reviewd paper presented at Australasian Road Safety Research Policing Education Conference, Sydney. [8] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Lennon, A., King, M. J., & Shi, K. (2011). Social influences on drivers in China. Journal of the Australasian College of Road Safety, 22(2), 29-36. [9] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Guan, M. Q., Ding, J. Y., & Xu, C. (2013). Characteristics of Chinese Drivers Attending a Mandatory Training Course Following Licence Suspension. Peer-reviewed paper presented at Road Safety on Four Continents, Beijing, China.

Burden of depressive disorders by country, sex, age, and year : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Depressive disorders were a leading cause of burden in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990 and 2000 studies. Here, we analyze the burden of depressive disorders in GBD 2010 and present severity proportions, burden by country, region, age, sex, and year, as well as burden of depressive disorders as a risk factor for suicide and ischemic heart disease. Methods and Findings Burden was calculated for major depressive disorder (MDD) and dysthymia. A systematic review of epidemiological data was conducted. The data were pooled using a Bayesian meta-regression. Disability weights from population survey data quantified the severity of health loss from depressive disorders. These weights were used to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Separate DALYs were estimated for suicide and ischemic heart disease attributable to depressive disorders.Depressive disorders were the second leading cause of YLDs in 2010. MDD accounted for 8.2% (5.9%-10.8%) of global YLDs and dysthymia for 1.4% (0.9%-2.0%). Depressive disorders were a leading cause of DALYs even though no mortality was attributed to them as the underlying cause. MDD accounted for 2.5% (1.9%-3.2%) of global DALYs and dysthymia for 0.5% (0.3%-0.6%). There was more regional variation in burden for MDD than for dysthymia; with higher estimates in females, and adults of working age. Whilst burden increased by 37.5% between 1990 and 2010, this was due to population growth and ageing. MDD explained 16 million suicide DALYs and almost 4 million ischemic heart disease DALYs. This attributable burden would increase the overall burden of depressive disorders from 3.0% (2.2%-3.8%) to 3.8% (3.0%-4.7%) of global DALYs. Conclusions GBD 2010 identified depressive disorders as a leading cause of burden. MDD was also a contributor of burden allocated to suicide and ischemic heart disease. These findings emphasize the importance of including depressive disorders as a public-health priority and implementing cost-effective interventions to reduce its burden.Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Risk factors for oesophageal, lung, oral and laryngeal cancers in black South Africans

The authors used data collected from 1995 to 1999, from an on-going cancer case–control study in greater Johannesburg, to estimate the importance of tobacco and alcohol consumption and other suspected risk factors with respect to cancer of the oesophagus (267 men and 138 women), lung (105 men and 41 women), oral cavity (87 men and 37 women), and larynx (51 men). Cancers not associated with tobacco or alcohol consumption were used as controls (804 men and 1370 women). Tobacco smoking was found to be the major risk factor for all of these cancers with odds ratios ranging from 2.6 (95% CI 1.5–4.5) for oesophageal cancer in female ex-smokers to 50.9 (95% CI 12.6–204.6) for lung cancer in women, and 23.9 (95% CI 9.5–60.3) for lung cancer and 23.6 (95% CI 4.6–121.2) for laryngeal cancer in men who smoked 15 or more grams of tobacco a day. This is the first time an association between smoking and oral and laryngeal cancers has been shown in sub-Saharan Africa. Long-term residence in the Transkei region in the southeast of the country continues to be a risk factor for oesophageal cancer, especially in women (odds ratio=14.7, 95% CI 4.7–46.0), possibly due to nutritional factors. There was a slight increase in lung cancer (odds ratio=2.9, 95% CI 1.1–7.5) in men working in ‘potentially noxious’ industries. ‘Frequent’ alcohol consumption, on its own, caused a marginally elevated risk for oesophageal cancer (odds ratio=1.7, 95% CI 1.0–2.9, for women and odds ratio=1.8, 95% CI 1.2–2.8, for men). The risks for oesophageal cancer in relation to alcohol consumption increased significantly in male and female smokers (odds ratio=4.7, 95% CI=2.8–7.9 in males and odds ratio=4.8, 95% CI 3.2–6.1 in females). The above results are broadly in line with international findings.

Disaster management in Nepal: Media engagement in the Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

Nepal, as a consequence of its geographical location and changing climate, faces frequent threats of natural disasters. According to the World Bank’s 2005 Natural Disasters Hotspots Report, Nepal is ranked the 11th most vulnerable country to earthquake and 30th to flood risk. Geo-Hazards International (2011) has classified Kathmandu as one of the world’s most vulnerable cities to earthquakes. In the last four decades more than 32,000 people in Nepal have lost their lives and annual monetary loss is estimated at more than 15 million (US) dollars. This review identifies gaps in knowledge, and progress towards implementation of the Post Hyogo Framework of Action. Nepal has identified priority areas: community resilience, sustainable development and climate change induced disaster risk reduction. However, one gap between policy and action lies in the ability of Nepal to act effectively in accordance with an appropriate framework for media activities. Supporting media agencies include the Press Council, Federation of Nepalese Journalists, Nepal Television, Radio Nepal and Telecommunications Authority and community based organizations. The challenge lies in further strengthening traditional and new media to undertake systematic work supported by government bodies and the National Risk Reduction Consortium (NRRC). Within this context, the ideal role for media is one that is proactive where journalists pay attention to a range of appropriate angles or frames when preparing and disseminating information. It is important to develop policy for effective information collection, sharing and dissemination in collaboration with Telecommunication, Media and Journalists. The aim of this paper is to describe the developments in disaster management in Nepal and their implications for media management. This study provides lessons for government, community and the media to help improve the framing of disaster messages. Significantly, the research highlights the prominence that should be given to flood, landslides, lightning and earthquakes.

Is Aldi’s move to woo cashed-up shoppers a risk?

While Aldi’s launch of their new “trial” stores may seem to be an attempt to capture middle income shoppers, it may end in disaster. Aldi’s four new trial stores located in Queensland, NSW, ACT and Victoria, will offer improved lighting, larger layouts and an expanded offering of fresh food including extending produce ranges, in-house bakeries and premium brands. Employing Nielsen’s 2014 Homescan Report, Aldi have determined that only 30% of their customers were now considered “low-income shoppers”. Some 34.4% were from middle-income households and the remaining 35.6% now had household incomes greater than AUD$90,000 a year - a segment which has grown by 6.7% since 2011. So this probably the reason for Aldi’s foray into new stores and ranges. However, such a move is considered risky.

Mapping the risk of soil-transmitted helminthic infections in the Philippines

Background In order to increase the efficient allocation of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) disease control resources in the Philippines, we aimed to describe for the first time the spatial variation in the prevalence of A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura and hookworm across the country, quantify the association between the physical environment and spatial variation of STH infection and develop predictive risk maps for each infection. Methodology/Principal Findings Data on STH infection from 35,573 individuals across the country were geolocated at the barangay level and included in the analysis. The analysis was stratified geographically in two major regions: 1) Luzon and the Visayas and 2) Mindanao. Bayesian geostatistical models of STH prevalence were developed, including age and sex of individuals and environmental variables (rainfall, land surface temperature and distance to inland water bodies) as predictors, and diagnostic uncertainty was incorporated. The role of environmental variables was different between regions of the Philippines. This analysis revealed that while A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura infections were widespread and highly endemic, hookworm infections were more circumscribed to smaller foci in the Visayas and Mindanao. Conclusions/Significance This analysis revealed significant spatial variation in STH infection prevalence within provinces of the Philippines. This suggests that a spatially targeted approach to STH interventions, including mass drug administration, is warranted. When financially possible, additional STH surveys should be prioritized to high-risk areas identified by our study in Luzon.