Varianza analitica y aproximada del costo total de un proyecto

La varianza estadística del costo total de un proyecto usualmente se estima por medio de la simulación de Monte Carlo, bajo el supuesto de que los acercamientos analíticos son demasiado complicados. Este artículo analiza este supuesto y muestra que, contrario a lo esperado, la solución analítica es relativamente directa. También se muestra que el coeficiente de variación no se ve afectado por el tamaño (área superficial) del proyecto cuando se usan los costos de los componentes estandarizados. Se provee un caso de estudio en el cual se analizan los costos reales de los componentes para obtener la varianza del costo total requerida. Los resultados confirman trabajos previos al mostrar que la aproximación del segundo momento (varianza) bajo el supuesto de independencia subestima considerablemente el valor exacto. El análisis continua examinando los efectos del juicio profesional y con los datos simulados utilizados, la aproximación resulta razonablemente exacta - el juicio profesional absorbe la mayor parte de las intercorrelaciones involucradas. También se da un ejemplo en el cual las cantidades de los componentes unitarios son valoradas por sus costos unitarios promedios y muestra, una vez más, que la aproximación es cercana al valor real. Finalmente, el trabajo se extiende mostrando cómo obtener, para cada proyecto, las varianzas exactas del costo total.

Towards determining soft tissue properties for modelling spine surgery : current progress and challenges

Current complication rates for adolescent scoliosis surgery necessitate the development of better surgical planning tools to improve outcomes. Here we present our approach to developing finite element models of the thoracolumbar spine for deformity surgery simulation, with patient-specific model anatomy based on low-dose pre-operative computed tomography scans. In a first step towards defining patient-specific tissue properties, an initial 'benchmark' set of properties were used to simulate a clinically performed pre-operative spinal flexibility assessment, the fulcrum bending radiograph. Clinical data for ten patients were compared with the simulated results for this assessment and in cases where these data differed by more than 10%, soft tissue properties for the costo-vertebral joint (CVJt) were altered to achieve better agreement. Results from these analyses showed that changing the CVJt stiffness resulted in acceptable agreement between clinical and simulated flexibility in two of the six cases. In light of these results and those of our previous studies in this area, it is suggested that spinal flexibility in the fulcrum bending test is not governed by any single soft tissue structure acting in isolation. More detailed biomechanical characterisation of the fulcrum bending test is required to provide better data for determination of patient-specific soft tissue properties.

Characterisation of flexural bond strength in thin bed concrete masonry

This paper presents an experimental investigation of the flexural bond strength of thin bed concrete masonry. Flexural bond strength of masonry depends upon the mortar type, the techniques of dispersion of mortar and the surface texture (roughness) of concrete blocks. There exists an abundance of literature on the conventional masonry bond containing 10mm thick mortar; however, the 2mm polymer flue mortar bond is not yet well researched. This paper reports a study on the examination of the effect of mortar compositions, dispersion methods and unit surface textures to the flexural bond strength of thin bed concrete masonry. Three types of polymer modified glue mortars, three surface textures and four techniques of mortar dispersion have been used in preparing 108 four point flexural test specimens. All mortar joints have been carefully prepared to ensure achievement of 2mm layer polymer mortar thickness on average. The results exhibit the flexural bond strength of thin bed concrete masonry much is higher than that of the conventional masonry; moreover the unit surface texture and the mortar dispersion methods are found to have significant influence on the flexural bond strength.