Bayesian indirect inference using a parametric auxiliary model

Indirect inference (II) is a methodology for estimating the parameters of an intractable (generative) model on the basis of an alternative parametric (auxiliary) model that is both analytically and computationally easier to deal with. Such an approach has been well explored in the classical literature but has received substantially less attention in the Bayesian paradigm. The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast a collection of what we call parametric Bayesian indirect inference (pBII) methods. One class of pBII methods uses approximate Bayesian computation (referred to here as ABC II) where the summary statistic is formed on the basis of the auxiliary model, using ideas from II. Another approach proposed in the literature, referred to here as parametric Bayesian indirect likelihood (pBIL), we show to be a fundamentally different approach to ABC II. We devise new theoretical results for pBIL to give extra insights into its behaviour and also its differences with ABC II. Furthermore, we examine in more detail the assumptions required to use each pBII method. The results, insights and comparisons developed in this paper are illustrated on simple examples and two other substantive applications. The first of the substantive examples involves performing inference for complex quantile distributions based on simulated data while the second is for estimating the parameters of a trivariate stochastic process describing the evolution of macroparasites within a host based on real data. We create a novel framework called Bayesian indirect likelihood (BIL) which encompasses pBII as well as general ABC methods so that the connections between the methods can be established.

The role of decision-maker preferences in tenancy selection of CBD office accommodation – preliminary literature review

The literature and anecdotal evidence suggests that that there is more to tenancy selection (firm location) than the profit maximisation drive that traditional neo-classical economic location theory suggests. In the first instance these models assume property markets are rational and perfectly competitive; the CBD office market is clearly neither rational nor perfectly competitive. This fact alone relegates such models to the margins of usefulness for an industry that seeks to satisfy tenant demand in order to optimise returns on capital invested. Acknowledgment of property market imperfections are universally accepted to the extent that all contemporary texts discuss the lack of a coherent centralised market place and incomplete and poorly disseminated information processes as fundamental inadequacies which characterise the property market inefficiencies. Less well researched are the facets of the market which allow the observer to determine market activity to be significantly irrational. One such facet is that of ‘decision maker preferences’. The decision to locate a business operation at one location as opposed to another seems ostensibly a routine choice based on short, medium and long term business objectives. These objectives are derived from a process of strategic planning by one or more individuals whose goal is held to be to optimise outcomes which benefit the business (and presumably those employed within it). However the decision making processes appear bounded by how firms function, the institutional context in which they operate, as well as by opportunistic behaviour by individual decision makers who allow personal preferences to infiltrate and ‘corrupt’ the process. In this way, history, culture, geography, as well as institutions all become significant to the extent that these influence and shape individual behaviour which in turn determine the morphology of individual preferences, as well as providing a conduit for them to take effect. This paper exams historical and current literature on the impact of individual behaviour in the decision making process within organisations as a precursor to an investigation of the tenancy decision making process within the CBD office market. Literature on the topic falls within a number of research disciplines, philosophy, psychology and economics to name a few.

Is there an app for that? A case study of the potentials and limitations of the participator turn and networked publics for classical music audience engagement

The participatory turn, fuelled by discourses and rhetoric regarding social media, and in the aftermath of the dot.com crash of the early 2000s, enrols to some extent an idea of being able to deploy networks to achieve institutional aims. The arts and cultural sector in the UK, in the face of funding cuts, has been keen to engage with such ideas in order to demonstrate value for money; by improving the efficiency of their operations, improving their respective audience experience and ultimately increasing audience size and engagement. Drawing on a case study compiled via a collaborative research project with a UK-based symphony orchestra (UKSO) we interrogate the potentials of social media engagement for audience development work through participatory media and networked publics. We argue that the literature related to mobile phones and applications (‘apps’) has focused primarily on marketing for engagement where institutional contexts are concerned. In contrast, our analysis elucidates the broader potentials and limitations of social-media-enabled apps for audience development and engagement beyond a marketing paradigm. In the case of UKSO, it appears that the technologically deterministic discourses often associated with institutional enrolment of participatory media and networked publics may not necessarily apply due to classical music culture. More generally, this work raises the contradictory nature of networked publics and argues for increased critical engagement with the concept.

Perceptions of Integration: What the Literature Says and What Stakeholders See

This paper compares perceptions of integrated marketing communication (IMC) to establish whether consumers perceive integration in the same way as the literature. It begins by reviewing the literature to identify shared assumptions about integration and factors thought to contribute to the integration of marketing communication and, in an experiment, compares these with the perceptions of consumers. Many of the shared assumptions in the literature have been supported by the findings of this study. Integration has been demonstrated to be both a strategy and a tactic. The strategic side is part of a management process and is unable to be observed by consumers from the marketing communication output. Consumers can, however, identify the tactics and are able to recall a number of integration factors such as logo, corporate colours and image. Consumers in the total message integration groups perceived the messages they received as more integrated than those in partial integration or no integration groups.

Literature Review Value Alignment Process for Project Delivery

The objective of the project “Value Alignment Process for Project Delivery” is to provide a catalyst and tools for reform in the building and construction industry to transform business-as-usual performance into exceptional performance. The outcomes of this project will be beneficial to not only the construction industry, but to the community as a whole because a more sophisticated industry can deliver more effective use of assets, financing, operating and maintenance of facilities to suit the community’s needs. The research project consists of a study into best practice project delivery and the development of a suite of products, resources and services to guide project teams towards the best approach for a specific project. These resources will be focused on promoting the principles that underlie best practice project delivery, rather than on identifying a particular delivery system. The need for such tools and resources becomes more and more acute as the environment within which the construction industry operates becomes more and more complex, and as business and political imperatives shift to encompass or represent diverse stakeholder interests. To this end, this literature review looks at why it is essential to achieve transformation in the Australian construction industry in the context of its importance to the Australian economy. It seeks to investigate the concepts of ‘alignment’ and value’ as they pertain to construction industry processes and relationships. It comprehensively reviews drivers of project excellence and best practice project delivery principles and looks at how clients approach selection of project delivery systems. It critiques existing project delivery strategies and gives an overview of recent best practice initiatives. The literature review represents a milestone against the Project Agreement and forms a foundation document for this research project

Influences on construction innovation : a brief overview of recent literature

This report reviews the most recent literature on construction innovation with the aim of highlighting the primary influences on innovation in the building and construction industry.

Literature review

This research aims to improve the economic and environmental sustainability of the construction & demolition waste and precast concrete supply chains through the development, trial and evaluation of an innovative public sector supply chain management strategy. The long-term goals are to improve competitive behaviour and market sector performance and improve business process efficiency and effectiveness of public sector program delivery by influencing policy development, changing organisational behaviour and implementation development to achieve more economic and environmental sustainable markets.

Literature review

There are many studies that reveal the nature of design thinking and the nature of conceptual design as distinct from detailed or embodiment design. The results can assist in our understanding of how the process of design can be supported and how new technologies can be introduced into the workplace. Existing studies provide limited information about the nature of collaborative design as it takes place on the ground and in the actual working context. How to provide appropriate and effective of support for collaborative design information sharing across companies, countries and heterogeneous computer systems is a key issue. As data are passed between designers and the computer systems they employ, many exchanges are made. These exchanges may be used to establish measures of the benefits that new support systems can bring. Collaboration support tools represent a fast growing section of the commercial software market place and a reasonable range of products are available. Many of them offer significant application to design for the support of distributed meetings by the provision of video and audio communications and the sharing of information, including collaborative sketching. The tools that specifically support 3D models and other very design specific features are less common and many of those are in prototype stages of development. A key question is to find viable ways of combining design information visualisation support with the collaboration support technologies that can be seen today. When collaborating, different views will need to be accessible at different times to all the collaborators. The architects may want to explain some ideas on their model, the structural engineers on their model and so on. However, there are issues of ownership when the structural engineer wants to manipulate the architect’s model and vice versa. The modes of working, synchronous or asynchronous may have a bearing as in a synchronous session there is control of what is happening.

Generic skills in design teams : literature review

Recent developments in networked three dimensional (3D) virtual worlds, and the proliferation of high bandwidth communications technology, have the potential to dramatically improve collaboration in the construction industry. This research project focuses on the early stages of a construction project in which the models for the project are developed and revised. The project investigates three aspects of collaboration in virtual environments: 1. The processes that enable effective collaboration using high bandwidth information communication technology (ICT); 2. The models that allow for multiple disciplines to share their views in a synchronous virtual environment; 3. The generic skills used by individuals and teams when engaging with high bandwidth information communication technology. The third aspect of the project, listed above, led by the University of Newcastle, explores the domain of People and the extent to which they contribute to the effectiveness of virtual teams. This report relates, primarily, to this aspect.

Report : review of the literature : maintenance and rehabilitation costs for roads (Risk-based Analysis)

Realistic estimates of short- and long-term (strategic) budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation of road assessment management should consider the stochastic characteristics of asset conditions of the road networks so that the overall variability of road asset data conditions is taken into account. The probability theory has been used for assessing life-cycle costs for bridge infrastructures by Kong and Frangopol (2003), Zayed et.al. (2002), Kong and Frangopol (2003), Liu and Frangopol (2004), Noortwijk and Frangopol (2004), Novick (1993). Salem 2003 cited the importance of the collection and analysis of existing data on total costs for all life-cycle phases of existing infrastructure, including bridges, road etc., and the use of realistic methods for calculating the probable useful life of these infrastructures (Salem et. al. 2003). Zayed et. al. (2002) reported conflicting results in life-cycle cost analysis using deterministic and stochastic methods. Frangopol et. al. 2001 suggested that additional research was required to develop better life-cycle models and tools to quantify risks, and benefits associated with infrastructures. It is evident from the review of the literature that there is very limited information on the methodology that uses the stochastic characteristics of asset condition data for assessing budgets/costs for road maintenance and rehabilitation (Abaza 2002, Salem et. al. 2003, Zhao, et. al. 2004). Due to this limited information in the research literature, this report will describe and summarise the methodologies presented by each publication and also suggest a methodology for the current research project funded under the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation CRC CI project no 2003-029-C.