Comparison of scoring systems for invasive pests using ROC analysis and Monte Carlo simulation

Different international plant protection organisations advocate different schemes for conducting pest risk assessments. Most of these schemes use structured questionnaire in which experts are asked to score several items using an ordinal scale. The scores are then combined using a range of procedures, such as simple arithmetic mean, weighted averages, multiplication of scores, and cumulative sums. The most useful schemes will correctly identify harmful pests and identify ones that are not. As the quality of a pest risk assessment can depend on the characteristics of the scoring system used by the risk assessors (i.e., on the number of points of the scale and on the method used for combining the component scores), it is important to assess and compare the performance of different scoring systems. In this article, we proposed a new method for assessing scoring systems. Its principle is to simulate virtual data using a stochastic model and, then, to estimate sensitivity and specificity values from these data for different scoring systems. The interest of our approach was illustrated in a case study where several scoring systems were compared. Data for this analysis were generated using a probabilistic model describing the pest introduction process. The generated data were then used to simulate the outcome of scoring systems and to assess the accuracy of the decisions about positive and negative introduction. The results showed that ordinal scales with at most 5 or 6 points were sufficient and that the multiplication-based scoring systems performed better than their sum-based counterparts. The proposed method could be used in the future to assess a great diversity of scoring systems.

Population variation in biomonitoring data for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) : an examination of multiple population-based datasets for application to Australian pooled biomonitoring data

Background Australian national biomonitoring for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) relies upon age-specific pooled serum samples to characterize central tendencies of concentrations but does not provide estimates of upper bound concentrations. This analysis compares population variation from biomonitoring datasets from the US, Canada, Germany, Spain, and Belgium to identify and test patterns potentially useful for estimating population upper bound reference values for the Australian population. Methods Arithmetic means and the ratio of the 95th percentile to the arithmetic mean (P95:mean) were assessed by survey for defined age subgroups for three polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs 138, 153, and 180), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), p,p-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), 2,2′,4,4′ tetrabrominated diphenylether (PBDE 47), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS). Results Arithmetic mean concentrations of each analyte varied widely across surveys and age groups. However, P95:mean ratios differed to a limited extent, with no systematic variation across ages. The average P95:mean ratios were 2.2 for the three PCBs and HCB; 3.0 for DDE; 2.0 and 2.3 for PFOA and PFOS, respectively. The P95:mean ratio for PBDE 47 was more variable among age groups, ranging from 2.7 to 4.8. The average P95:mean ratios accurately estimated age group-specific P95s in the Flemish Environmental Health Survey II and were used to estimate the P95s for the Australian population by age group from the pooled biomonitoring data. Conclusions Similar population variation patterns for POPs were observed across multiple surveys, even when absolute concentrations differed widely. These patterns can be used to estimate population upper bounds when only pooled sampling data are available.

Exposure to bioaerosols in the school environment in Brisbane, Australia

Introduction: Exposure to bioaerosols in indoor environments has been linked to various adverse health effects, such as airway disorders and upper respiratory tract symptoms. The aim of this study was to assess exposure to bioaerosols in the school environment in Brisbane, Australia. Methods: Culturable fungi and endotoxin measurements were conducted in six schools between October 2010 and May 2011. Culturable fungi (2 indoor air and 1-2 outdoor air samples per school) were assessed using a Biotest RCS High Flow Air Sampler, with a flow rate of either 50L/min or 20L/min. A rose pengar agar was used for recovery, which was incubated prior to counting and partial identification. Endotoxins were sampled (8h, 2L/min) using SKC glass fibre filters (4 indoor air samples per school) and analysed using an endpoint chromogenic LAL assay. Results: The arithmetic mean for fungi concentration in indoor and outdoor air was 710 cfu/m3(125- 1900 cfu/m3) and 524 cfu/m3 (140-1250 cfu/m3), respectively. The most frequently isolated fungal genus from the outdoor air was Cladosporium (over 40 %), followed by isolated Penicillium (21%) and Aspergillus (12%). The percent of Penicillium, Cladosporium and Aspergillus in indoor air samples was 32%, 32% and 8%, respectively. The aritmetic mean of endotoxin concentration was 0.59 EU/m3 (0-2,2 EU/m3). Discussion: The results of the current study are in agreement with previously reported studies, in that airborne fungi and endotoxin concentrations varied extensively, and were mostly dependent on climatic conditions. In addition, the indoor air mycoflora largely reflected the fungal flora present in the outdoor air, with Cladosporium being the most common in both outdoor and indoor (with Penicillium) air. In indoor air, unusually high endotoxin levels, over 1 EU/m3, were detected at 2 schools. Although these schools were not affected by the recent Brisbane floods, persistent rain prior to and during the study perios could explain the results.

A fully Bayesian approach to inference for Coxian phase-type distributions with covariate dependent mean

Phase-type distributions represent the time to absorption for a finite state Markov chain in continuous time, generalising the exponential distribution and providing a flexible and useful modelling tool. We present a new reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for performing a fully Bayesian analysis of the popular Coxian subclass of phase-type models; the convenient Coxian representation involves fewer parameters than a more general phase-type model. The key novelty of our approach is that we model covariate dependence in the mean whilst using the Coxian phase-type model as a very general residual distribution. Such incorporation of covariates into the model has not previously been attempted in the Bayesian literature. A further novelty is that we also propose a reversible jump scheme for investigating structural changes to the model brought about by the introduction of Erlang phases. Our approach addresses more questions of inference than previous Bayesian treatments of this model and is automatic in nature. We analyse an example dataset comprising lengths of hospital stays of a sample of patients collected from two Australian hospitals to produce a model for a patient's expected length of stay which incorporates the effects of several covariates. This leads to interesting conclusions about what contributes to length of hospital stay with implications for hospital planning. We compare our results with an alternative classical analysis of these data.

Avoiding full extension field arithmetic in pairing computations

The most costly operations encountered in pairing computations are those that take place in the full extension field Fpk . At high levels of security, the complexity of operations in Fpk dominates the complexity of the operations that occur in the lower degree subfields. Consequently, full extension field operations have the greatest effect on the runtime of Miller’s algorithm. Many recent optimizations in the literature have focussed on improving the overall operation count by presenting new explicit formulas that reduce the number of subfield operations encountered throughout an iteration of Miller’s algorithm. Unfortunately, almost all of these improvements tend to suffer for larger embedding degrees where the expensive extension field operations far outweigh the operations in the smaller subfields. In this paper, we propose a new way of carrying out Miller’s algorithm that involves new explicit formulas which reduce the number of full extension field operations that occur in an iteration of the Miller loop, resulting in significant speed ups in most practical situations of between 5 and 30 percent.

Spatial information infrastructure : what can it possibly mean?

Investment begins with imagining that doing something new in the present will lead to a better future. Investment can vary from incidental improvements as safe and beneficial side-effects of current activity through to a more dedicated and riskier disinvestment in current methods of operation and reinvestment in new processes and products. The role of government has an underlying continuity determined by its constitution that authorises a parliament to legislate for peace, order and good government. ‘Good government’ is usually interpreted as improving the living standards of its citizens. The requirements for social order and social cohesion suggest that improvements should be shared fairly by all citizens through all of their lives. Arguably, the need to maintain an individual’s metabolism has a social counterpart in the ‘collective metabolism’ of a sustainable and productive society.

What do IPAQ questions mean to older adults? Lessons from cognitive interviews

Background Most questionnaires used for physical activity (PA) surveillance have been developed for adults aged ≤65 years. Given the health benefits of PA for older adults and the aging of the population, it is important to include adults aged 65+ years in PA surveillance. However, few studies have examined how well older adults understand PA surveillance questionnaires. This study aimed to document older adults’ understanding of questions from the International PA Questionnaire (IPAQ), which is used worldwide for PA surveillance. Methods Participants were 41 community-dwelling adults aged 65-89 years. They each completed IPAQ in a face-to-face semi-structured interview, using the “think-aloud” method, in which they expressed their thoughts out loud as they answered IPAQ questions. Interviews were transcribed and coded according to a three-stage model: understanding the intent of the question; performing the primary task (conducting the mental operations required to formulate a response); and response formatting (mapping the response into pre-specified response options). Results Most difficulties occurred during the understanding and performing the primary task stages. Errors included recalling PA in an “average” week, not in the previous 7 days; including PA lasting ≤10 minutes/session; reporting the same PA twice or thrice; and including the total time of an activity for which only a part of that time was at the intensity specified in the question. Participants were unclear what activities fitted within a question’s scope and used a variety of strategies for determining the frequency and duration of their activities. Participants experienced more difficulties with the moderate-intensity PA and walking questions than with the vigorous-intensity PA questions. The sitting time question, particularly difficult for many participants, required the use of an answer strategy different from that used to answer questions about PA. Conclusions These findings indicate a need for caution in administering IPAQ to adults aged ≥65 years. Most errors resulted in over-reporting, although errors resulting in under-reporting were also noted. Given the nature of the errors made by participants, it is possible that similar errors occur when IPAQ is used in younger populations and that the errors identified could be minimized with small modifications to IPAQ.

Correcting mean-field approximations for birth-death-movement processes

On the microscale, migration, proliferation and death are crucial in the development, homeostasis and repair of an organism; on the macroscale, such effects are important in the sustainability of a population in its environment. Dependent on the relative rates of migration, proliferation and death, spatial heterogeneity may arise within an initially uniform field; this leads to the formation of spatial correlations and can have a negative impact upon population growth. Usually, such effects are neglected in modeling studies and simple phenomenological descriptions, such as the logistic model, are used to model population growth. In this work we outline some methods for analyzing exclusion processes which include agent proliferation, death and motility in two and three spatial dimensions with spatially homogeneous initial conditions. The mean-field description for these types of processes is of logistic form; we show that, under certain parameter conditions, such systems may display large deviations from the mean field, and suggest computationally tractable methods to correct the logistic-type description.