Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

Too young to drink but old enough to drive under the influence : a study of underage offenders as seen in substance abuse treatment in Texas

Driving under the influence (DUI) is a major road safety problem. Historically, alcohol has been assumed to play a larger role in crashes and DUI education programs have reflected this assumption, although recent evidence suggests that younger drivers are becoming more likely to drive drugged than to drive drunk. This is a study of 7096 Texas clients under age 21 who were admitted to state-funded treatment programs between 1997 and 2007 with a past-year DUI arrest, DUI probation, or DUI referral. Data were obtained from the State’s administrative dataset. Multivariate logistic regressions models were used to understand the differences between those minors entering treatment as a DUI as compared to a non-DUI as well as the risks for completing treatment and for being abstinent in the month prior to follow-up. A major finding was that over time, the primary problem for underage DUI drivers changed from alcohol to marijuana. Being abstinent in the month prior to discharge, having a primary problem with alcohol rather than another drug, and having more family involved were the strongest predictors of treatment completion. Living in a household where the client was exposed to alcohol abuse or drug use, having been in residential treatment, and having more drug and alcohol and family problems were the strongest predictors of not being abstinent at follow-up. As a result, there is a need to direct more attention towards meeting the needs of the young DUI population through programs that address drug as well as alcohol consumption problems.

Advertising education in Australia: Looking back to the future

In Australia, advertising is a $13 billion industry which needs a supply of suitably skilled employees. Over the years, advertising education has developed from vocational based courses to degree courses across the country. This paper uses diffusion theory and various secondary sources and interviews to observe the development of advertising education in Australia from its early past, to its current day tertiary offerings, to discussing the issues that are arising in the near future. Six critical issues are identified, along with observations about the challenges and opportunities within Australia advertising education. By looking back to the future, it is hoped that this historical review provides lessons for other countries of similar educational structure or background, or even other marketing communication disciplines on a similar evolutionary path.

The city, self, and connections : transyouth and urban social networking in Seoul

The end of the Korean War in 1953 marked the beginning of Seoul’s transformation from the shattered capital city of South Korea to one of the most connected, populous, and fast-changing hubs of global economy. Seoul’s technosocial development has been celebrated nationally and internationally. To the outside, young Koreans’ swift and extensive adoption and adaptation to digital technologies has been a subject of exotification; to adults in Korea, it has been a subject of criticism (see Yoon in this volume). With the understanding that ‘the city is connections,’ it is crucial to study not only the macro-level design of the city as a network (through policy, for example), but also its micro-level construction at the intersection of people, place, and technology. Accordingly, this chapter explores this exact intersection to comprehensively portray the constant renewal of the city as imagined and experienced by young Koreans. The chapter is based on fieldwork conducted in Seoul, South Korea, from 2007 to 2008 as part of a research project on the mobile play culture of Seoul transyouth, the transitional demographic situated between youth and adulthood, and the pioneers of the Korean ‘broadband miracle’ (Hazlett, 2004). The study draws upon transdisciplinary research data including interviews, questionnaires, diaries, and Shared Visual Ethnography (SVE) to render the everyday urban social networking of young Seoulites with and through which they interact to constantly (re)create the city and the self.

The entrepreneurial vlogger : participatory culture beyond the professional-amateur divide

In this chapter, we frame YouTube as an example of “co-creative” culture – whatever YouTube is, it is produced dynamically (that is, as an ongoing process, over time) as a result of many interconnected instances of participation, by many different people. In order to understand these co-creative relationships, it is important not to focus exclusively on how the “ordinary consumer” or “amateur producer,” are participating in YouTube; rather, we argue it is necessary to include the activities of “traditional media” companies and media professionals, and more importantly, the new models of media entrepreneurialism that are grounded in YouTube’s “grassroots” culture. Hence, this chapter focuses the role that “YouTube stars” – highly visible and successful “homegrown” performers and producers – play in modelling and negotiating these co-creative relationships within the context of YouTube’s social network; and the new models of entrepreneurship within participatory culture that they represent.

Technological barriers to learning : designing hybrid pedagogy to minimise cognitive load and maximise understanding

Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) provide great promise for the future of education. In the Asia-Pacific region, many nations have started working towards the comprehensive development of infrastructure to enable the development of strong networked educational systems. In Queensland there have been significant initiatives in the past decade to support the integration of technology in classrooms and to set the conditions for the enhancement of teaching and learning with technology. One of the great challenges is to develop our classrooms to make the most of these technologies for the benefit of student learning. Recent research and theory into cognitive load, suggests that complex information environments may well impose a barrier on student learning. Further, it suggests that teachers have the capacity to mitigate against cognitive load through the way they prepare and support students engaging with complex information environments. This chapter compares student learning at different levels of cognitive load to show that learning is enhanced when integrating pedagogies are employed to mitigate against high-load information environments. This suggests that a mature policy framework for ICTs in education needs to consider carefully the development of professional capacities to effectively design and integrate technologies for learning.

Students' and teachers' perceptions of adolescents' problems and coping strategies

In an investigation of the problems and coping strategies of Australian high school students, comparisons were made between the responses of 1664 students enrolled in years 8 to 12 in 1988, 1620 students enrolled in the same year levels in 1993, and 178 high school teachers in 1993. The subjects completed the High School Stressors Scale and the Adolescent Coping Strategies Scale. Data analyses using MANOVAs, ANOVAs, and t- tests revealed close similarities between the responses of the 1993 students and those of the 1988 students, but a considerable amount of incongruence between the responses of the students and those of the teachers. In particular, the teachers generally seemed to regard their students' problems as being more serious than was acknowledged by the students, and the teachers generally seemed to project a less positive view of adolescents' coping strategies than did the students. These discrepancies are discussed in terms of the different orientations that students and teachers bring to the student- teacher relationship. It is suggested that teachers and counsellors need to take cognisance of the differences between adolescents' perspectives and their own if they are going to be effective in assisting students to develop positive coping strategies and in creating more positive learning environments.

Measuring behavioural indicators of self-esteem in the classroom

This study aimed to develop and validate an instrument to be used by teachers to measure the frequency of behaviors indicative of self-esteem and then to evaluate the instruments' reliability and concurrent validity. The Behavioral Indicators of Self-Esteem (BIOS) Scale proved to be a reliable and valid measure.