Application of a Bayesian Network complex system model to a successful community electricity demand reduction program

Utilities worldwide are focused on supplying peak electricity demand reliably and cost effectively, requiring a thorough understanding of all the factors influencing residential electricity use at peak times. An electricity demand reduction project based on comprehensive residential consumer engagement was established within an Australian community in 2008, and by 2011, peak demand had decreased to below pre-intervention levels. This paper applied field data discovered through qualitative in-depth interviews of 22 residential households at the community to a Bayesian Network complex system model to examine whether the system model could explain successful peak demand reduction in the case study location. The knowledge and understanding acquired through insights into the major influential factors and the potential impact of changes to these factors on peak demand would underpin demand reduction intervention strategies for a wider target group.

Identifying relationships between symptom clusters and quality of life in adults with chronic mixed venous and arterial leg ulcers

The objective of this study was to identify symptom clusters and their effect on quality of life (QOL) of adults with chronic leg ulcers of mixed venous and arterial aetiology. A secondary analysis of data from four existing prospective longitudinal studies conducted by a wound healing research group in Australia was undertaken. A total of 110 patients who met the inclusion criteria were selected for this study. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was used to identify symptom clusters and correlational analyses to examine relationships between the identified symptom clusters and QOL. The EFA identified two distinct symptom clusters: a 'systemic symptom cluster' consisting of pain, fatigue and depressive symptoms; and a 'localised-leg symptom cluster' including pain, fatigue, oedema, lower limb inflammation and exudate. Physical QOL correlated significantly with the systemic symptom cluster (r = -0·055, P < 0·0001) and the localised-leg symptom cluster (r = -0·054, P < 0·0001), whereas mental QOL was associated only with the systemic symptom cluster (r = -0·038, P = 0·01). The results suggest that appropriate intervention strategies targeting specific symptom clusters should be developed. Targeting patients with symptom clusters is particularly important because they are at high risk and the most vulnerable for reduced QOL.

Child protection training for professionals to improve reporting of child abuse and neglect (Protocol)

Child abuse and neglect results in significant costs for children and communities. As a core public health strategy, diverse professional groups are required by law and policy in many jurisdictions to report suspected cases. Numerous different training initiatives appear to have been developed and implemented for professionals but there is little evidence regarding the precise training components and mechanisms that improve reporting of child abuse and neglect both generally, for specific professions, and for distinct types of child abuse and neglect. To enhance reporting practice, designers of training programmes require detailed information about what programme features will offer greatest benefit. A systematic review which identifies the effectiveness of different training approaches will advance the evidence base and develop a clearer understanding of optimal training content and methods. In addition, it will provide policymakers with a means by which to assess whether current training interventions are congruent with what is demonstrated to be effective. It will also inform future research, public policy, and professional practice in this field.

Assessment of flood-related mental illness in Bangladesh

This thesis assessed the mental health impacts of flooding and explored the key determinants of flood-related mental illness in the coastal region of Bangladesh. This study found significant increase in the prevalence of mental illness after flooding. Flood-exposure and socio-economic factors were significantly associated with post-flood mental illness. These findings may help the policy-makers to improve the early intervention and screening programs and may also have significant public health implications in the control and prevention of flood-related mental illness in Bangladesh.

Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

The window of opportunity: A relevant concept for axial spondyloarthritis

The window of opportunity is a concept critical to rheumatoid arthritis treatment. Early treatment changes the outcome of rheumatoid arthritis treatment, in that response rates are higher with earlier disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug treatment and damage is substantially reduced. Axial spondyloarthritis is an inflammatory axial disease encompassing both nonradiographic axial spondyloarthritis and established ankylosing spondylitis. In axial spondyloarthritis, studies of magnetic resonance imaging as well as tumor necrosis factor inhibitor treatment and withdrawal studies all suggest that early effective suppression of inflammation has the potential to reduce radiographic damage. This potential would suggest that the concept of a window of opportunity is relevant not only to rheumatoid arthritis but also to axial spondyloarthritis. The challenge now remains to identify high-risk patients early and to commence treatment without delay. Developments in risk stratification include new classification criteria, identification of clinical risk factors, biomarkers, genetic associations, potential antibody associations and an ankylosing spondylitis-specific microbiome signature. Further research needs to focus on the evidence for early intervention and the early identification of high-risk individuals.

The ASAS criteria for axial spondyloarthritis: Strengths, weaknesses, and proposals for a way forward

Classification criteria should facilitate selection of similar patients for clinical and epidemiologic studies, therapeutic trials, and research on etiopathogenesis to enable comparison of results across studies from different centers. We critically appraise the validity and performance of the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS) classification criteria for axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). It is still debatable whether all patients fulfilling these criteria should be considered as having true axSpA. Patients with radiographically evident disease by the ASAS criteria are not necessarily identical with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) as classified by the modified New York criteria. The complex multi-arm selection design of the ASAS criteria induces considerable heterogeneity among patients so classified, and applying them in settings with a low prevalence of axial spondyloarthritis (SpA) greatly increases the proportion of subjects falsely classified as suffering from axial SpA. One of the unmet needs in non-radiographic form of axial SpA is to have reliable markers that can identify individuals at risk for progression to AS and thereby facilitate early intervention trials designed to prevent such progression. We suggest needed improvements of the ASAS criteria for axSpA, as all criteria sets should be regarded as dynamic concepts open to modifications or updates as our knowledge advances.

An investigation into the effectiveness of sensory modulation in reducing seclusion within an acute mental health unit

In this paper we report the findings from an evaluation of the introduction of sensory modulation (SM) in an acute mental health inpatient unit. It was expected that SM could be used to help settle patients experiencing high levels of disturbance and that as a result, there would be less need for use of more restrictive seclusion practices. The evaluation took place in a hospital in south-east Queensland, Australia. SM was introduced in one acute unit while the other served as a control. The evaluation comprised two studies. In the first study we aimed to determine whether SM reduced the level of disturbance among patients given the opportunity to use it. In the second study we aimed to find out whether the introduction of SM reduced the frequency and duration of seclusion. In study 1, we found that most patients reported marked reduction in disturbance after using SM and there was a very large effect size for the group as a whole. In study 2, we found that frequency of seclusion dropped dramatically in the unit that introduced SM but rose slightly in the unit that did not have access to SM. The change in seclusion rate was highly significant (χ2 = 49.1, df = 1, p < 0.001). Results are discussed, having reference to the limitations inherent in a naturalistic study.

Illicit drug use between an annual key holiday and a control period: Wastewater analysis in a semi-rural, an urban and a vacation area

Introduction and Aims: Holiday periods are potentially a time for increased substance use as social events and private parties are more common. Data on community illicit drug consumption during holiday periods are limited. Besides existing methods for determining drug use, such as population surveys, one emerging method is to measure illicit drugs and/or their metabolites in wastewater samples. This study examined the change in consumption of cannabis, methamphetamine, cocaine and 3,4- methylenedioxymethamphetamine in three different types of areas (an inland semi-rural area, a coastal urban area and a vacation island) with respect to holiday times. Design and Methods: Samples were collected at the inlet of the major wastewater treatment plant in each area during a key annual holiday (i.e. the summer holiday including Christmas and New Year) and control period. Illicit drug residues in the daily composited samples were measured by liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. Results: Drug use varied substantially among the three areas within each monitoring period as well as between the holiday and control period within each area. Use consistently increased and peaked over New Year particularly for cocaine and 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine whereas cannabis and methamphetamine were relatively less subjected to holiday times in all the areas. Discussion and Conclusions: Wastewater sampling and analysis provides higher spatio-temporal resolution than national surveys and supplements drug epidemiology studies originating primary in metropolitan locations. Such data is essential for policy makers to plan potential intervention strategies associated with these illicit substances in regional areas and other settings besides urban areas in the future.

Estimating daily and diurnal variations of illicit drug use in Hong Kong: A pilot study of using wastewater analysis in an Asian metropolitan city

The measurement of illicit drug metabolites in raw wastewater is increasingly being adopted as an approach to objectively monitor population-level drug use, and is an effective complement to traditional epidemiological methods. As such, it has been widely applied in western countries. In this study, we utilised this approach to assess drug use patterns over nine days during April 2011 in Hong Kong. Raw wastewater samples were collected from the largest wastewater treatment plant serving a community of approximately 3.5 million people and analysed for excreted drug residues including cocaine, ketamine, methamphetamine, 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) and key metabolites using liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. The overall drug use pattern determined by wastewater analysis was consistent with that have seen amongst people coming into contact with services in relation to substance use; among our target drugs, ketamine (estimated consumption: 1400–1600 mg/day/1000 people) was the predominant drug followed by methamphetamine (180–200 mg/day/1000 people), cocaine (160–180 mg/day/1000 people) and MDMA (not detected). The levels of these drugs were relatively steady throughout the monitoring period. Analysing samples at higher temporal resolution provided data on diurnal variations of drug residue loads. Elevated ratios of cocaine to benzoylecgonine were identified unexpectedly in three samples during the evening and night, providing evidence for potential dumping events of cocaine. This study provides the first application of wastewater analysis to quantitatively evaluate daily drug use in an Asian metropolitan community. Our data reinforces the benefit of wastewater monitoring to health and law enforcement authorities for strategic planning and evaluation of drug intervention strategies.

The long drive home: Control beliefs and commuting intentions of mine workers

Purpose: It is relatively common for many mine workers in Australia to drive an average of 250 kilometers to and from work following long shifts and shift blocks. Despite the long distances travelled following long shifts of 12- to 14-hours, there is evidence to suggest that these workers are not engaging in a break following their shift prior to driving home. This naturally raises issues of fatigue and sleepiness when driving. There is limited research in respect to commuting behaviours of mine workers and little is known about the factors that influence these workers to leave site immediately following their shift. Using the theory of planned behaviour, this paper examines individual control beliefs that encourage or prevent workers from leaving the site immediately following their shift block. Method: Data was collected using a cross-sectional survey. The survey instrument was developed following a series of in-depth interviews with workers from a Queensland coal mine (n=37). The quantitative written survey sample (n=461) was drawn from the same coal mine and consisted of workers from all levels of the organisation. Results: The results examine workers intentions to leave the work site and drive home immediately following a shift block. The results show differences in control beliefs between workers finishing night shifts compared with those finishing day shifts. Implications: An understanding of these control beliefs may potentially inform more targeted intervention strategies in the attempt to encourage a safer approach to driving home following shift blocks.

Tarsal tunnel syndrome: A narrative literature review

Background Tarsal tunnel syndrome is classified as a focal compressive neuropathy of the posterior tibial nerve or one of its associated branches individually or collectively. The tunnel courses deep to fascia, the flexor retinaculum and within the abductor hallucis muscle of the foot/ankle. The condition is rare and regularly under-diagnosed leading to a range of symptoms affecting the plantar margins of the foot. There are many intervention strategies for treating tarsal tunnel syndrome with limited robust evidence to guide the clinical management of this condition. The role of conservative versus surgical interventions at various stages of the disease process remains unclear, and there is a need for a structured, step-wise approach in treating patients with this syndrome based on derived empirical evidence. This narrative review attempts to scrutinize the literature to date by clarifying initial presentation, investigations and definitive treatment for the purpose of assisting future informed clinical decision and prospective research endeavours. Process The literature searches that have been incorporated in compiling a rigorous review of this condition have included: the Cochrane Neuromuscular Group's Specialized Register (Cochrane Library 2013), the databases of EMBASE, AMED, MEDLINE, CINAHL, Physiotherapy evidence database (PEDRO), Biomed Central, Science Direct and Trip Database (1972 to the present). Reference listings of located articles were also searched and scrutinized. Authors and experts within the field of lower-limb orthopaedics were contacted to discuss applicable data. Subject-specific criteria searches utilizing the following key terms were performed across all databases: tarsal tunnel syndrome, tibial neuralgia, compression neuropathy syndromes, tibial nerve impingement, tarsal tunnel neuropathy, entrapment tibial nerve, posterior tibial neuropathy. These search strategies were modified with differing databases, adopting specific sensitivity-searching tools and functions unique to each. This search strategy identified 88 journal articles of relevance for this narrative literature review. Findings This literature review has appraised the clinical significance of tarsal tunnel syndrome, whilst assessing varied management interventions (non-surgical and surgical) for the treatment of this condition in both adults and children. According to our review, there is limited high-level robust evidence to guide and refine the clinical management of tarsal tunnel syndrome. Requirements for small-scaled randomized controlled trials in groups with homogenous aetiology are needed to analyse the effectiveness of specific treatment modalities. Conclusions It is necessary that further research endeavours be pursued for the clinical understanding, assessment and treatment of tarsal tunnel syndrome. Accordingly, a structured approach to managing patients who have been correctly diagnosed with this condition should be formulated on the basis of empirical evidence where possible.

Developing a best practice pathway to support improvements in Indigenous Australians' mental health and well-being: A qualitative study

Objective: There is a need to adapt pathways to care to promote access to mental health services for Indigenous people in Australia. This study explored Indigenous community and service provider perspectives of well-being and ways to promote access to care for Indigenous people at risk of depressive illness. Design: A participatory action research framework was used to inform the development of an agreed early intervention pathway; thematic analysis Setting: 2 remote communities in the Northern Territory. Participants: Using snowball and purposive sampling, 27 service providers and community members with knowledge of the local context and the diverse needs of those at risk of depression were interviewed. 30% of participants were Indigenous. The proposed pathway to care was adapted in response to participant feedback. Results: The study found that Indigenous mental health and well-being is perceived as multifaceted and strongly linked to cultural identity. It also confirms that there is broad support for promotion of a clear pathway to early intervention. Key identified components of this pathway were the health centre, visiting and community-based services, and local community resources including elders, cultural activities and families. Enablers to early intervention were reported. Significant barriers to the detection and treatment of those at risk of depression were identified, including insufficient resources, negative attitudes and stigma, and limited awareness of support options. Conclusions: Successful early intervention for wellbeing concerns requires improved understanding of Indigenous well-being perspectives and a systematic change in service delivery that promotes integration, flexibility and collaboration between services and the community, and recognises the importance of social determinants in health promotion and the healing process. Such changes require policy support, targeted training and education, and ongoing promotion.

Current CAPE-15: A measure of recent psychotic-like experiences and associated distress

Aim Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) are common in young people and are associated with both distress and adverse outcomes. The Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences-Positive Scale (CAPE-P) provides a 20-item measure of lifetime PLEs. A 15-item revision of this scale was recently published (CAPE-P15). Although the CAPE-P has been used to assess PLEs in the last 12 months, there is no version of the CAPE for assessing more recent PLEs (e.g. 3 months). This study aimed to determine the reliability and validity of the current CAPE-P15 and assess its relationship with current distress. Method A cross-sectional online survey of 489 university students (17–25 years) assessed lifetime and current substance use, current distress, and lifetime and 3-month PLEs on the CAPE-P15. Results Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the current CAPE-P15 retained the same three-factor structure as the lifetime version consisting of persecutory ideation, bizarre experiences and perceptual abnormalities. The total score of the current version was lower than the lifetime version, but the two were strongly correlated (r = .64). The current version was highly predictive of generalized distress (r = .52) and indices that combined symptom frequency with associated distress did not confer greater predictive power than frequency alone. Conclusion This study provided preliminary data that the current CAPE-P15 provides a valid and reliable measure of current PLEs. The current CAPE-P15 is likely to have substantial practical utility if it is later shown to be sensitive to change, especially in prevention and early intervention for mental disorders in young people.

The other country: A father's journey with autism

The memoir The Other Country and the essay Inspiration is Power examine i) contemporary experiences of autism and ii) the representation of autism disorder in scientific and autobiographical writing. The Other Country is a memoir of four years in the life of its author Michael Whelan, and his family, in the care of his son, Charlie. In February 1998, Charlie was diagnosed with autism, and in that moment Michael and his family's lives changed. The memoir describes in four parts a four-year journey through a father?s experiences: - Part 1, Welcome to Holland, the family's feelings of fear, grief and dislocation following diagnosis; - Part 2, Look at Me, the chaotic process of research and treatment, and intense early intervention programs; - Part 3, The Enchanted Cottage, the slow process of recovery that the family went through, and; - Part 4, The Long Way Home, the transformation of Charlie, Michael and his family and notions of home and normalcy. The title, The Other Country, in this context refers to the largely invisible parallel society inhabited by anyone who lives outside the mainstream. The accompanying critical essay, Inspiration is Power, examines the influence of the discourses of biomedical science and parental pathology on the representation and understanding of autism. Specifically, among autism narratives, the medical voice has an overwhelming authority and power in characterizing autistic disorder and experience for the lay reader. This discourse contests the moral authority of parental autobiographical writing, which, by contrast, characterizes autism as a personalized invading other and thief of their child. Through a critique of specific aspects of identity, narrative, evidence and authority, the essay suggests a register of rhetorical moves that may be employed to influence, and consequently empower, the reader of autism narratives.