Multilevel competing risk models to evaluate the risk of nosocomial infection

Introduction Risk factor analyses for nosocomial infections (NIs) are complex. First, due to competing events for NI, the association between risk factors of NI as measured using hazard rates may not coincide with the association using cumulative probability (risk). Second, patients from the same intensive care unit (ICU) who share the same environmental exposure are likely to be more similar with regard to risk factors predisposing to a NI than patients from different ICUs. We aimed to develop an analytical approach to account for both features and to use it to evaluate associations between patient- and ICU-level characteristics with both rates of NI and competing risks and with the cumulative probability of infection. Methods We considered a multicenter database of 159 intensive care units containing 109,216 admissions (813,739 admission-days) from the Spanish HELICS-ENVIN ICU network. We analyzed the data using two models: an etiologic model (rate based) and a predictive model (risk based). In both models, random effects (shared frailties) were introduced to assess heterogeneity. Death and discharge without NI are treated as competing events for NI. Results There was a large heterogeneity across ICUs in NI hazard rates, which remained after accounting for multilevel risk factors, meaning that there are remaining unobserved ICU-specific factors that influence NI occurrence. Heterogeneity across ICUs in terms of cumulative probability of NI was even more pronounced. Several risk factors had markedly different associations in the rate-based and risk-based models. For some, the associations differed in magnitude. For example, high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were associated with modest increases in the rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but large increases in the risk. Others differed in sign, for example respiratory vs cardiovascular diagnostic categories were associated with a reduced rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but an increased risk. Conclusions A combination of competing risks and multilevel models is required to understand direct and indirect risk factors for NI and distinguish patient-level from ICU-level factors.

Long-tailed bats' use of a Pinus radiata stand in Kinleith Forest : Recommendations for monitoring

Targeted monitoring of threatened species within plantations is becoming more important due to forest certification programmes’ requirement to consider protection of threatened species, and to increase knowledge of the distribution of species. To determine patterns of long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) activity in different habitat structures, with the aim of improving the likelihood of detection by targeting monitoring, we monitored one stand of 26 year-old Pinus radiata over seven months between December 2007 and June 2008 in Kinleith Forest, an exotic plantation forest centred around Tokoroa, South Waikato, New Zealand. Activity was determined by acoustic recording equipment, which is able to detect and record bats’ echolocation calls. We monitored activity from sunset to sunrise along a road through the stand, along stand edges, and in the interior of the stand. Bats were recorded on 80% of the 35 nights monitored. All activity throughout the monitoring period was detected on the edge of the stand or along the road. No bats were detected within the interior of the stand. Bat activity was highest along the road through the stand (40.4% of all passes), followed by an edge with stream running alongside (35.2%), along the road within a skidsite (19.8%), and along an edge without a stream (4.6%). There was a significant positive relationship between bat pass rate (bat passes h-1) and the feeding buzz rate (feeding buzzes h-1) indicating that bat activity was associated with feeding and not just commuting. Bat feeding activity was also highest along the road through the stand (59.2% of feeding buzzes), followed by the road within the skidsite (30.6%), and along the stream-side edge (10.2%). No feeding buzzes were recorded in either the interior or along the edge without the stream. Differences in overall feeding activity were significant only between the road and edge and between edges with and without a stream. Bat activity was detected each month and always by the second night of monitoring, and in this stand was highest during April. We recommend targeted monitoring for long-tailed bats be focused on road-side and stand edge habitat, and along streams, and that monitoring take place for at least three nights to maximise probability of detection.

On the Security of Two RFID Mutual Authentication Protocols

In this paper, the security of two recent RFID mutual authentication protocols are investigated. The first protocol is a scheme proposed by Huang et al. [7] and the second one by Huang, Lin and Li [6]. We show that these two protocols have several weaknesses. In Huang et al.’s scheme, an adversary can determine the 32-bit secret password with a probability of 2−2 , and in Huang-Lin-Li scheme, a passive adversary can recognize a target tag with a success probability of 1−2−4 and an active adversary can determine all 32 bits of Access password with success probability of 2−4 . The computational complexity of these attacks is negligible.

Sensorineural hearing loss after treatment for head and neck cancer : a review of the literature

Background Definitive cisplatin-based is increasingly delivered as the treatment of choice for patients with head and neck cancer. Sensorineural hearing loss is a significant long term side effect of cisplatin-based chemoradiation and is associated with potential major quality of life issues for patients. Purpose The purpose of this manuscript was to review the mechanism behind sensorineural hearing loss in patients treated with cisplatin-based chemoradiation, including incidence, the contributions of radiotherapy and cisplatin to sensorineural hearing loss and the impact of the toxicity on patient quality of life. Methods Database searches were conducted through PubMed (National Centre for Biotechnology Information) and OvidSP Medline via the Queensland University of Technology Library website. General article searches were conducted through the online search engine Google Scholar. Articles were excluded if the full-text was unavailable, they were not in English or if they were published prior to 1990. Keywords included hearing loss, ototoxicity, cancer, quality of life, cisplatin and radiotherapy. Results/Discussion The total number of journal articles accessed was 290. Due to exclusion criteria, 129 articles were deemed appropriated for review. Findings indicated that sensorineural hearing loss is a significant, long term complication for patients treated with cisplatin-based chemoradiation. Current literature recognises the ototoxic effects of cisplatin and cranial irradiation as separate entities, however the impact of combined modality therapy on sensorineural hearing loss is seldom reported. Multiple risk factors for hearing loss are described, however there are contradictory opinions on incidence and severity and the exact radiation dose threshold responsible for inducing hearing loss in patients receiving combined modality therapy. Sensorineural hearing loss creates a subset of complexities for patients with head and neck cancer and that these patients face significant quality of life impairment. Conclusion The literature review identified that sensorineural hearing loss is a major quality of life issue for patients treated with cisplatin-based chemoradiation for head and neck cancer. Further investigation evaluating the contribution of cisplatin-based chemoradiation to sensorineural hearing loss and the subsequent effect on patient quality of life is warranted.

Out-of-pocket expenditures for hospital care in Iran : who is at risk of incurring catastrophic payments?

Since the beginning of 1980s, the Iranian health care system has undergone several reforms designed to increase accessibility of health services. Notwithstanding these reforms, out-of-pocket payments which create a barrier to access health services contribute almost half of total health are financing in Iran. This study aimed to provide a greater understanding about the inequality and determinants of the out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) and the related catastrophic expenditure (CE) for hospital services in Iran using a nationwide survey data, the 2003 Utilisation of Health Services Survey (UHSS). The concentration index and the Heckman selection model were used to assess inequality and factors associated with these expenditures. Inequality analysis suggests that the CE is concentrated among households in lower socioeconomic levels. The results of the Heckman selection model indicate that factors such as length of stay, admission to a hospital owned by private sector or Ministry of Health and Medical Education, and living in remote areas are positively associated with higher OOPE. Results of the ordered-probit selection model demonstrate that length of stay, lower household wealth index, and admission to a private hospital are major factors contributing to the increase in the probability of CE. Also, we find that households living in East Azarbaijan, Kordestan and Sistan and Balochestan face a higher level of CE. Based on our findings, the current employer-sponsored health insurance system does not offer equal protection against hospital expenditure in Iran. It seems that a single universal health insurance scheme that covers health services for all Iranian—regardless of their employment status—can better protect households from catastrophic health spending.

Hospital care in Iran : an examination of national health system performance

This study examines hospital care system performance in Iran. We first briefly review hospital care delivery system in Iran. Then, the hospital care system in Iran has been investigated from financial, utilization, and quality perspectives. In particular, we examined the extent to which health care system in Iran protects people from the financial consequence of health care expenses and whether inpatient care distributed according to need. We also empirically analyzed the quality of hospital care in Iran using patient satisfaction information collected in a national health service survey. The Iranian health care system consists of unequal access to hospital care; mismatch between the distribution of services and inpatients' need; and high probability of financial catastrophe due to out-of-pocket payments for inpatient services. Our analysis indicates that the quality of hospital care among Iranian provinces favors patients residing in provinces with high numbers of hospital beds per capita such as Esfahan and Yazd. Patients living in provinces with low levels of accessibility to hospital care (e.g. Gilan, Kermanshah, Hamadan, Chahar Mahall and Bakhtiari, Khuzestan, and Sistan and Baluchestan) receive lower-quality services. These findings suggest that policymakers in Iran should work on several fronts including utilization, financing, and service quality to improve hospital care.

Cost-effective suppression and eradication of invasive predators

Introduced predators can have pronounced effects on naïve prey species; thus, predator control is often essential for conservation of threatened native species. Complete eradication of the predator, although desirable, may be elusive in budget-limited situations, whereas predator suppression is more feasible and may still achieve conservation goals. We used a stochastic predator-prey model based on a Lotka-Volterra system to investigate the cost-effectiveness of predator control to achieve prey conservation. We compared five control strategies: immediate eradication, removal of a constant number of predators (fixed-number control), removal of a constant proportion of predators (fixed-rate control), removal of predators that exceed a predetermined threshold (upper-trigger harvest), and removal of predators whenever their population falls below a lower predetermined threshold (lower-trigger harvest). We looked at the performance of these strategies when managers could always remove the full number of predators targeted by each strategy, subject to budget availability. Under this assumption immediate eradication reduced the threat to the prey population the most. We then examined the effect of reduced management success in meeting removal targets, assuming removal is more difficult at low predator densities. In this case there was a pronounced reduction in performance of the immediate eradication, fixed-number, and lower-trigger strategies. Although immediate eradication still yielded the highest expected minimum prey population size, upper-trigger harvest yielded the lowest probability of prey extinction and the greatest return on investment (as measured by improvement in expected minimum population size per amount spent). Upper-trigger harvest was relatively successful because it operated when predator density was highest, which is when predator removal targets can be more easily met and the effect of predators on the prey is most damaging. This suggests that controlling predators only when they are most abundant is the "best" strategy when financial resources are limited and eradication is unlikely. © 2008 Society for Conservation Biology.

Optimal allocation of conservation effort among subpopulations of a threatened species: How important is patch quality?

Money is often a limiting factor in conservation, and attempting to conserve endangered species can be costly. Consequently, a framework for optimizing fiscally constrained conservation decisions for a single species is needed. In this paper we find the optimal budget allocation among isolated subpopulations of a threatened species to minimize local extinction probability. We solve the problem using stochastic dynamic programming, derive a useful and simple alternative guideline for allocating funds, and test its performance using forward simulation. The model considers subpopulations that persist in habitat patches of differing quality, which in our model is reflected in different relationships between money invested and extinction risk. We discover that, in most cases, subpopulations that are less efficient to manage should receive more money than those that are more efficient to manage, due to higher investment needed to reduce extinction risk. Our simple investment guideline performs almost as well as the exact optimal strategy. We illustrate our approach with a case study of the management of the Sumatran tiger, Panthera tigris sumatrae, in Kerinci Seblat National Park (KSNP), Indonesia. We find that different budgets should be allocated to the separate tiger subpopulations in KSNP. The subpopulation that is not at risk of extinction does not require any management investment. Based on the combination of risks of extinction and habitat quality, the optimal allocation for these particular tiger subpopulations is an unusual case: subpopulations that occur in higher-quality habitat (more efficient to manage) should receive more funds than the remaining subpopulation that is in lower-quality habitat. Because the yearly budget allocated to the KSNP for tiger conservation is small, to guarantee the persistence of all the subpopulations that are currently under threat we need to prioritize those that are easier to save. When allocating resources among subpopulations of a threatened species, the combined effects of differences in habitat quality, cost of action, and current subpopulation probability of extinction need to be integrated. We provide a useful guideline for allocating resources among isolated subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Characteristics of a sample of first time drink driving offenders in Queensland - a qualitative analysis

Drink driving incidents in the Australian community continue to be a major road safety problem resulting in a third of all fatalities. Drink driving prevalence remains high; with the rate of Australians who self report drink driving remaining at 11%-12.1% [1,2]. The focus of research in the area to date has been with recidivist offenders who have a higher probability of reoffending, while there is comparatively limited research regarding first time offenders. An important and understudied area relates to the characteristics of first offenders and predictors of recidivism. This study examined the findings of in-depth focussed interviews with a sample of 20 individual first time drink driving offenders in Queensland recruited at the time of court mention.

Common psychotic symptoms can be explained by the theory of ecological perception

The symptoms of psychiatric illness are diverse, as are the causes of the illnesses that cause them. Yet, regardless of the heterogeneity of cause and presentation, a great deal of symptoms can be explained by the failure of a single perceptual function – the reprocessing of ecological perception. It is a central tenet of the ecological theory of perception that we perceive opportunities to act. It has also been found that perception automatically causes actions and thoughts to occur unless this primary action pathway is inhibited. Inhibition allows perceptions to be reprocessed into more appropriate alternative actions and thoughts. Reprocessing of this kind takes place over the entire frontal lobe and it renders action optional. Choice about what action to take (if any) is the basis for the feeling of autonomy and ultimately for the sense-of-self. When thoughts and actions occur automatically (without choice) they appear to originate outside of the self, thereby providing prima facie evidence for some of the bizarre delusions that define schizophrenia such as delusional misidentification, delusions of control and Cotard’s delusion. Automatic actions and thoughts are triggered by residual stimulation whenever reprocessing is insufficient to balance automatic excitatory cues (for whatever reason). These may not be noticed if they are neutral and therefore unimportant whereas actions and thoughts with a positive bias are desirable. Responses to negative stimulus, on the other hand, are always unwelcome, because the actions that are triggered will carry the negative bias. Automatic thoughts may include spontaneous positive feelings of love and joy, but automatic negative thoughts and visualisations are experienced as hallucinations. Not only do these feel like they emerge from elsewhere but they carry a negative bias (they are most commonly critical, rude and are irrationally paranoid). Automatic positive actions may include laughter and smiling and these are welcome. Automatic behaviours that carry a negative bias, however, are unwelcome and like hallucinations, occur without a sense of choice. These include crying, stereotypies, perseveration, ataxia, utilization and imitation behaviours and catatonia.

Robotic detection and tracking of Crown-Of-Thorns starfish

This paper presents a novel vision-based underwater robotic system for the identification and control of Crown-Of-Thorns starfish (COTS) in coral reef environments. COTS have been identified as one of the most significant threats to Australia's Great Barrier Reef. These starfish literally eat coral, impacting large areas of reef and the marine ecosystem that depends on it. Evidence has suggested that land-based nutrient runoff has accelerated recent outbreaks of COTS requiring extensive use of divers to manually inject biological agents into the starfish in an attempt to control population numbers. Facilitating this control program using robotics is the goal of our research. In this paper we introduce a vision-based COTS detection and tracking system based on a Random Forest Classifier (RFC) trained on images from underwater footage. To track COTS with a moving camera, we embed the RFC in a particle filter detector and tracker where the predicted class probability of the RFC is used as an observation probability to weight the particles, and we use a sparse optical flow estimation for the prediction step of the filter. The system is experimentally evaluated in a realistic laboratory setup using a robotic arm that moves a camera at different speeds and heights over a range of real-size images of COTS in a reef environment.

Decisions and actions of distracted drivers at the onset of yellow light

Driving on an approach to a signalized intersection while distracted is relatively risky, as potential vehicular conflicts and resulting angle collisions tend to be relatively more severe compared to other locations. Given the prevalence and importance of this particular scenario, the objective of this study was to examine the decisions and actions of distracted drivers during the onset of yellow lights. Driving simulator data were obtained from a sample of 69 drivers under baseline and handheld cell phone conditions at the University of Iowa – National Advanced Driving Simulator. Explanatory variables included age, gender, cell phone use, distance to stop-line, and speed. Although there is extensive research on drivers’ responses to yellow traffic signals, the examinations have been conducted from a traditional regression-based approach, which do not necessary provide the underlying relations and patterns among the sampled data. In this paper, we exploit the benefits of both classical statistical inference and data mining techniques to identify the a priori relationships among main effects, non-linearities, and interaction effects. Results suggest that the probability of yellow light running increases with the increase in driving speed at the onset of yellow. Both young (18–25 years) and middle-aged (30–45 years) drivers reveal reduced propensity for yellow light running whilst distracted across the entire speed range, exhibiting possible risk compensation during this critical driving situation. The propensity for yellow light running for both distracted male and female older (50–60 years) drivers is significantly higher. Driver experience captured by age interacts with distraction, resulting in their combined effect having slower physiological response and being distracted particularly risky.

Transferability of cupped oyster EST (Expressed Sequence Tag)-derived SNP (Single Nucleotide Polymorphism) markers to related crassostrea and ostrea species

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are widely acknowledged as the marker of choice for many genetic and genomic applications because they show co-dominant inheritance, are highly abundant across genomes and are suitable for high-throughput genotyping. Here we evaluated the applicability of SNP markers developed from Crassostrea gigas and C. virginica expressed sequence tags (ESTs) in closely related Crassostrea and Ostrea species. A total of 213 putative interspecific level SNPs were identified from re-sequencing data in six amplicons, yielding on average of one interspecific level SNP per seven bp. High polymorphism levels were observed and the high success rate of transferability show that genic EST-derived SNP markers provide an efficient method for rapid marker development and SNP discovery in closely related oyster species. The six EST-SNP markers identified here will provide useful molecular tools for addressing questions in molecular ecology and evolution studies including for stock analysis (pedigree monitoring) in related oyster taxa.

Whole exome sequencing is an efficient and sensitive method for detection of germline mutations in patients with phaeochromcytomas and paragangliomas

Background Genetic testing is recommended when the probability of a disease-associated germline mutation exceeds 10%. Germline mutations are found in approximately 25% of individuals with phaeochromcytoma (PCC) or paraganglioma (PGL); however, genetic heterogeneity for PCC/PGL means many genes may require sequencing. A phenotype-directed iterative approach may limit costs but may also delay diagnosis, and will not detect mutations in genes not previously associated with PCC/PGL. Objective To assess whether whole exome sequencing (WES) was efficient and sensitive for mutation detection in PCC/PGL. Methods Whole exome sequencing was performed on blinded samples from eleven individuals with PCC/PGL and known mutations. Illumina TruSeq™ (Illumina Inc, San Diego, CA, USA) was used for exome capture of seven samples, and NimbleGen SeqCap EZ v3.0 (Roche NimbleGen Inc, Basel, Switzerland) for five samples (one sample was repeated). Massive parallel sequencing was performed on multiplexed samples. Sequencing data were called using Genome Analysis Toolkit and annotated using annovar. Data were assessed for coding variants in RET, NF1, VHL, SDHD, SDHB, SDHC, SDHA, SDHAF2, KIF1B, TMEM127, EGLN1 and MAX. Target capture of five exome capture platforms was compared. Results Six of seven mutations were detected using Illumina TruSeq™ exome capture. All five mutations were detected using NimbleGen SeqCap EZ v3.0 platform, including the mutation missed using Illumina TruSeq™ capture. Target capture for exons in known PCC/PGL genes differs substantially between platforms. Exome sequencing was inexpensive (<$A800 per sample for reagents) and rapid (results <5 weeks from sample reception). Conclusion Whole exome sequencing is sensitive, rapid and efficient for detection of PCC/PGL germline mutations. However, capture platform selection is critical to maximize sensitivity.

Limited utility of exercise stress testing in the evaluation of suspected acute coronary syndrome in patients aged less than 40 years with intermediate risk features

Objective National guidelines for management of intermediate risk patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, in whom AMI has been excluded, advocate provocative testing to final risk stratify these patients into low risk (negative testing) or high risk (positive testing suggestive of unstable angina). Adults less than 40 years have a low pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome. The utility of exercise stress testing in young adults with chest pain suspected of acute coronary syndrome who have National Heart Foundation intermediate risk features was evaluated Methods A retrospective analysis of exercise stress testing performed on patients less than 40 years was evaluated. Patients were enrolled on a chest pain pathway and had negative serial ECGs and cardiac biomarkers before exercise stress testing to rule-out acute coronary syndrome. Chart review was completed on patients with positive stress tests. Results The 3987 patients with suspected intermediate risk acute coronary syndrome underwent exercise stress testing. One thousand and twenty-seven (25.8%) were aged less than 40 years (age 33.3 ± 4.8 years). Four of these 1027 patients had a positive exercise stress test (0.4% incidence of positive exercise stress testing). Of those, three patients had subsequent non-invasive functional testing that yielded a negative result. One patient declined further investigations. Assuming this was a true positive exercise stress test, the incidence of true positive exercise stress testing would have been 0.097% (95% confidence interval: 0.079–0.115%) (one of 1027 patients). Conclusions Routine exercise stress testing has limited value in the risk stratification of adults less than 40 years with suspected intermediate risk of acute coronary syndrome