Navigational safety in port waters: Techniques for modeling collision risk

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Continuing growth of shipping traffic in number and sizes is likely to result in increased number of traffic movements, which consequently could result higher risk of collisions in these restricted waters. This continually increasing safety concern warrants a comprehensive technique for modeling collision risk in port waters, particularly for modeling the probability of collision events and the associated consequences (i.e., injuries and fatalities). A number of techniques have been utilized for modeling the risk qualitatively, semi-quantitatively and quantitatively. These traditional techniques mostly rely on historical collision data, often in conjunction with expert judgments. However, these techniques are hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of collision occurrence leading to obtaining insufficient number of collision counts for a sound statistical analysis, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these shortcomings is the navigational traffic conflict technique (NTCT), which uses traffic conflicts as an alternative to the collisions for modeling the probability of collision events quantitatively. This article explores the existing techniques for modeling collision risk in port waters. In particular, it identifies the advantages and limitations of the traditional techniques and highlights the potentials of the NTCT in overcoming the limitations. In view of the principles of the NTCT, a structured method for managing collision risk is proposed. This risk management method allows safety analysts to diagnose safety deficiencies in a proactive manner, which consequently has great potential for managing collision risk in a fast, reliable and efficient manner.

Aspect oriented business process modeling with precedence

Complexity is a major concern which is aimed to be overcome by people through modeling. One way of reducing complexity is separation of concerns, e.g. separation of business process from applications. One sort of concerns are cross-cutting concerns i.e. concerns which are scattered and tangled through one of several models. In business process management, examples of such concerns are security and privacy policies. To deal with these cross-cutting concerns, the aspect orientated approach was introduced in the software development area and recently also in the business process management area. The work presented in this paper elaborates on aspect oriented process modelling. It extends earlier work by defining a mechanism for capturing multiple concerns and specifying a precedence order according to which they should be handled in a process. A formal syntax of the notation is presented precisely capturing the extended concepts and mechanisms. Finally, the relevant of the approach is demonstrated through a case study.

Mixed-dimensional consistent coupling by multi-point constraint equations for efficient multi-scale modeling

Finding an appropriate linking method to connect different dimensional element types in a single finite element model is a key issue in the multi-scale modeling. This paper presents a mixed dimensional coupling method using multi-point constraint equations derived by equating the work done on either side of interface connecting beam elements and shell elements for constructing a finite element multiscale model. A typical steel truss frame structure is selected as case example and the reduced scale specimen of this truss section is then studied in the laboratory to measure its dynamic and static behavior in global truss and local welded details while the different analytical models are developed for numerical simulation. Comparison of dynamic and static response of the calculated results among different numerical models as well as the good agreement with those from experimental results indicates that the proposed multi-scale model is efficient and accurate.

Modeling and Analyzing the Carbon Footprint of Business Processes

Many corporations and individuals realize that environmental sustainability is an urgent problem to address. In this chapter, we contribute to the emerging academic discussion by proposing two innovative approaches for engaging in the development of environmentally sustainable business processes. Specifically, we describe an extended process modeling approach for capturing and documenting the dioxide emissions produced during the execution of a business process. For illustration, we apply this approach to the case of a governmental Shared Services provider. Second, we then introduce an analysis method for measuring the carbon dioxide emissions produced during the execution of a business process. To illustrative this approach, we apply it in the real-life case of an European airport and show how this information can be leveraged in the re-design of “green” busi-ness processes.

Modeling train delays in urban networks

The reliability of urban passenger trains is a critical performance measure for passenger satisfaction and ultimately market share. A delay to one train in a peak period can have a severe effect on the schedule adherence of other trains. This paper presents an analytically based model to quantify the expected positive delay for individual passenger trains and track links in an urban rail network. The model specifically addresses direct delay to trains, knock-on delays to other trains, and delays at scheduled connections. A solution to the resultant system of equations is found using an iterative refinement algorithm. Model validation, which is carried out using a real-life suburban train network consisting of 157 trains, shows the model estimates to be on average within 8% of those obtained from a large scale simulation. Also discussed, is the application of the model to assess the consequences of increased scheduled slack time as well as investment strategies designed to reduce delay.

Langevin dynamics modeling of the water diffusion tensor in partially aligned collagen networks

In this work, a Langevin dynamics model of the diffusion of water in articular cartilage was developed. Numerical simulations of the translational dynamics of water molecules and their interaction with collagen fibers were used to study the quantitative relationship between the organization of the collagen fiber network and the diffusion tensor of water in model cartilage. Langevin dynamics was used to simulate water diffusion in both ordered and partially disordered cartilage models. In addition, an analytical approach was developed to estimate the diffusion tensor for a network comprising a given distribution of fiber orientations. The key findings are that (1) an approximately linear relationship was observed between collagen volume fraction and the fractional anisotropy of the diffusion tensor in fiber networks of a given degree of alignment, (2) for any given fiber volume fraction, fractional anisotropy follows a fiber alignment dependency similar to the square of the second Legendre polynomial of cos(θ), with the minimum anisotropy occurring at approximately the magic angle (θMA), and (3) a decrease in the principal eigenvalue and an increase in the transverse eigenvalues is observed as the fiber orientation angle θ progresses from 0◦ to 90◦. The corresponding diffusion ellipsoids are prolate for θ < θMA, spherical for θ ≈ θMA, and oblate for θ > θMA. Expansion of the model to include discrimination between the combined effects of alignment disorder and collagen fiber volume fraction on the diffusion tensor is discussed.

Modeling resource management in the building design process by information constraint Petri nets

The effect of resource management on the building design process directly influences the development cycle time and success of construction projects. This paper presents the information constraint net (ICN) to represent the complex information constraint relations among design activities involved in the building design process. An algorithm is developed to transform the information constraints throughout the ICN into a Petri net model. A resource management model is developed using the ICN to simulate and optimize resource allocation in the design process. An example is provided to justify the proposed model through a simulation analysis of the CPN Tools platform in the detailed structural design. The result demonstrates that the proposed approach can obtain the resource management and optimization needed for shortening the development cycle and optimal allocation of resources.

Extending Web Modeling Language to exploit stigmergy : intentionally recording unintentional trails

Software development and Web site development techniques have evolved significantly over the past 20 years. The relatively young Web Application development area has borrowed heavily from traditional software development methodologies primarily due to the similarities in areas of data persistence and User Interface (UI) design. Recent developments in this area propose a new Web Modeling Language (WebML) to facilitate the nuances specific to Web development. WebML is one of a number of implementations designed to enable modeling of web site interaction flows while being extendable to accommodate new features in Web site development into the future. Our research aims to extend WebML with a focus on stigmergy which is a biological term originally used to describe coordination between insects. We see design features in existing Web sites that mimic stigmergic mechanisms as part of the UI. We believe that we can synthesize and embed stigmergy in Web 2.0 sites. This paper focuses on the sub-topic of site UI design and stigmergic mechanism designs required to achieve this.

Role of kilometer-scale weak circular heterogeneities on upper crustal deformation patterns: Evidence from scaled analogue modeling and the Sudbury Basin, Canada

The Sudbury Basin is a non-cylindrical fold basin occupying the central portion of the Sudbury Impact Structure. The impact structure lends itself excellently to explore the structural evolution of continental crust containing a circular region of long-term weakness. In a series of scaled analogue experiments various model crustal configurations were shortened horizontally at a constant rate. In mechanically weakened crust, model basins formed that mimic several first-order structural characteristics of the Sudbury Basin: (1) asymmetric, non-cylindrical folding of the Basin, (2) structures indicating concentric shortening around lateral basin termini and (3) the presence of a zone of strain concentration near the hinge zones of model basins. Geometrically and kinematically this zone corresponds to the South Range Shear Zone of the Sudbury Basin. According to our experiments, this shear zone is a direct mechanical consequence of basin formation, rather than the result of thrusting following folding. Overall, the models highlight the structurally anomalous character of the Sudbury Basin within the Paleoproterozoic Eastern Penokean Orogen. In particular, our models suggest that the Basin formed by pure shear thickening of crust, whereas transpressive deformation prevailed elsewhere in the orogen. The model basin is deformed by thickening and non-cylindrical synformal buckling, while conjugate transpressive shear zones propagated away from its lateral tips. This is consistent with pure shear deformation of a weak circular inclusion in a strong matrix. The models suggest that the Sudbury Basin formed as a consequence of long-term weakening of the upper crust by meteorite impact.

Modeling heat and mass transfer process during convection drying of fruit

Fruit drying is a process of removing moisture to preserve fruits by preventing microbial spoilage. It increases shelf life, reduce weight and volume thus minimize packing, storage, and transportation cost and enable storage of food under ambient environment. But, it is a complex process which involves combination of heat and mass transfer and physical property change and shrinkage of the material. In this background, the aim of this paper to develop a mathematical model to simulate coupled heat and mass transfer during convective drying of fruit. This model can be used predict the temperature and moisture distribution inside the fruits during drying. Two models were developed considering shrinkage dependent and temperature dependent moisture diffusivity and the results were compared. The governing equations of heat and mass transfer are solved and a parametric study has been done with Comsol Multiphysics 4.3. The predicted results were validated with experimental data.

Near-Wall Turbulent Pressure Diffusion Modeling and Influence in Three-Dimensional Secondary Flows

The purpose of this paper is to develop a second-moment closure with a near-wall turbulent pressure diffusion model for three-dimensional complex flows, and to evaluate the influence of the turbulent diffusion term on the prediction of detached and secondary flows. A complete turbulent diffusion model including a near-wall turbulent pressure diffusion closure for the slow part was developed based on the tensorial form of Lumley and included in a re-calibrated wall-normal-free Reynolds-stress model developed by Gerolymos and Vallet. The proposed model was validated against several one-, two, and three-dimensional complex flows.