Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Executive coaching : investigating effects of leader-empowering behaviours and psychological empowerment

Executive coaching is a rapidly expanding approach to leadership development which has grown at a rate that warrants extensive examination of its effects (Wasylyshyn, 2003). This thesis has therefore examined both behavioural and psychological effects based on a nine month executive coaching intervention within a large not-for-profit organisation. The intervention was a part of a larger ongoing integrated organisational strategy to create an organisational coaching culture. In order to examine the effectiveness of the nine month executive coaching intervention two studies were conducted. A quantitative study used a pre and post questionnaire to examine leaders and their team members‘ responses before and after the coaching intervention. The research examined leader-empowering behaviours, psychological empowerment, job satisfaction and affective commitment. Significant results were demonstrated from leaders‘ self-reports on leader-empowering behaviours and their team members‘ self-reports revealed a significant flow on effect of psychological empowerment. The second part of the investigation involved a qualitative study which explored the developmental nature of psychological empowerment through executive coaching. The examination dissected psychological empowerment into its widely accepted four facets of meaning, impact, competency and self-determination and investigated, through semi-structured interviews, leaders‘ perspectives of the effect of executive coaching upon them (Spreitzer, 1992). It was discovered that a number of the common practices within executive coaching, including goal-setting, accountability and action-reflection, contributed to the production of outcomes that developed higher levels of psychological empowerment. Careful attention was also given to organisational context and its influence upon the outcomes.

The experience of being a peer outreach volunteer: Benefits and challenges

Peer outreach is an emerging form of non-professional consumer-delivered service in the context of psychiatric rehabilitation. This study identified the benefits and challenges of outreach provision as identified by a group of volunteer outreach workers. One on one semi-structured interviews were carried out with twelve members trained as peer outreach volunteers. Interview transcripts were analysed using a consensual qualitative research approach. Outreach workers typically experienced peer outreach as a positive experience both for themselves and for the recipients. Most found the training and support provided to be appropriate and sufficient. Nonetheless, peer outreach workers did encounter difficulties and sometimes felt need for more training and support. The findings have implications for the development of future peer outreach programs. There is scope for enhanced training and/or supervision and a need for further research to investigate ways to optimise peer outreach.

Stepping stones : teacher lesson plans : year 1

"ORIGO Stepping Stones gives mathematics teachers the best of both worlds by delivering lessons and teacher guides on a digital platform blended with the more traditional printed student journals." -- Publisher website

Sky high and back again : the evolution of simulation-based design from aerospace to construction

Emerging from the challenge to reduce energy consumption in buildings is a need for research and development into the more effective use of simulation as a decision-support tool. Despite significant research, persistent limitations in process and software inhibit the integration of energy simulation in early architectural design. This paper presents a green star case study to highlight the obstacles commonly encountered with current integration strategies. It then examines simulation-based design in the aerospace industry, which has overcome similar limitations. Finally, it proposes a design system based on this contrasting approach, coupling parametric modelling and energy simulation software for rapid and iterative performance assessment of early design options.

A formative evaluation of the Stronger Smarter Learning Communities Project. 2011 report.

This report is a formative evaluation of the operations of the DEEWR funded Stronger Smarter Learning Community (SSLC) project from September 2009 to July 2011. It is undertaken by an independent team of researchers from Queensland University of Technology, the University of Newcastle and Harvard University. It reports on findings from: documentary analysis; qualitative case studies of SSLC Hub schools; descriptive, multivariate and multilevel analysis of survey data from school leaders and teachers from SSLC Hub and Affiliate schools and from a control group of non-SSLC schools; and multilevel analysis of school-level data on SSLC Hubs, Affiliates and ACARA like-schools. Key findings from this work are that: • SSLC school leaders and teachers are reporting progress in changing school ethos around issues of: recognition of Indigenous identity, Indigenous leadership, innovative approaches to staffing and school models, Indigenous community engagement and high expectations leadership; • Many Stronger Smarter messages are reportedly having better uptake in schools with high percentages of Indigenous students; • There are no major or consistent patterns of differences between SSLC and non-SSLC schools in teacher and school leader self-reports of curriculum and pedagogy practices; and • There is no evidence to date that SSLC Hubs and Affiliates have increased attendance or increased achievement gains compared to ACARA like-schools. Twenty-one months is relatively early in this school reform project. Hence the major focus of subsequent reports will be on the documentation of comparative longitudinal gains in achievement tests and improved attendance. The 2011 and 2012 research also will model the relationships between change in school ethos/climate, changed Indigenous community relations, improved curriculum/pedagogy, and gains in Indigenous student achievement, attendance and outcomes. The key challenge for SSLC and the Stronger Smarter approach will be whether it can systematically generate change and reform in curriculum and pedagogy practices that can be empirically linked to improved student outcomes.

Stepping Stones A world-Class Mathematics program for the Australian Curriculum Year 1 (Student Journal)

ORIGO Stepping Stones gives mathematics teachers the best of both worlds by delivering lessons and teacher guides on a digital platform blended with the more traditional printed student journals. This uniquely interactive program allows students to participate in exciting learning activites whilst still allowing the teacher to maintain control of learning outcomes. It is the first program in Australia to give teachers activities to differentiate instruction within each lesson and across school years. Written by a team of Australia's leading mathematics educators, this program integrates key research findings in a practical sequence of modules and lessons providing schools with a step-by-step approach to the new curriculum. Click links on the right to explore the program.

Stepping stones : teacher lesson plans : year 2

"ORIGO Stepping Stones gives mathematics teachers the best of both worlds by delivering lessons and teacher guides on a digital platform blended with the more traditional printed student journals." -- Publisher website

Stepping stones : student journal : year 2

"ORIGO Stepping Stones gives mathematics teachers the best of both worlds by delivering lessons and teacher guides on a digital platform blended with the more traditional printed student journals." -- Publisher website

Stepping stones : student guide : year 3

"ORIGO Stepping Stones gives mathematics teachers the best of both worlds by delivering lessons and teacher guides on a digital platform blended with the more traditional printed student journals." -- Publisher website