A safety adapted car following model for traffic safety studies

Traffic safety studies demand more than what current micro-simulation models can provide as they presume that all drivers exhibit safe behaviors. All the microscopic traffic simulation models include a car following model. This paper highlights the limitations of the Gipps car following model ability to emulate driver behavior for safety study purposes. A safety adapted car following model based on the Gipps car following model is proposed to simulate unsafe vehicle movements, with safety indicators below critical thresholds. The modifications are based on the observations of driver behavior in real data and also psychophysical notions. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the new model and short following headways and Time To Collision are employed to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. Risky events are extracted from available NGSIM data to evaluate the modified model against them. The results from simulation tests illustrate that the proposed model can predict the safety metrics better than the generic Gipps model. The outcome of this paper can potentially facilitate assessing and predicting traffic safety using microscopic simulation.

The social car : new interactive vehicular applications derived from social media and urban informatics

Digital information that is place- and time-specific, is increasingly becoming available on all aspects of the urban landscape. People (cf. the Social Web), places (cf. the Geo Web), and physical objects (cf. ubiquitous computing, the Internet of Things) are increasingly infused with sensors, actuators, and tagged with a wealth of digital information. Urban informatics research explores these emerging digital layers of the city at the intersection of people, place and technology. However, little is known about the challenges and new opportunities that these digital layers may offer to road users driving through today’s mega cities. We argue that this aspect is worth exploring in particular with regards to Auto-UI’s overarching goal of making cars both safer and more enjoyable. This paper presents the findings of a pilot study, which included 14 urban informatics research experts participating in a guided ideation (idea creation) workshop within a simulated environment. They were immersed into different driving scenarios to imagine novel urban informatics type of applications specific to the driving context.

The use of amenities in high density neighbourhoods by older urban Australians residents

Like other major cities, Brisbane (Australia) has adopted policies to increase residential densities to meet the liveability goal of decreasing car dependence. This objective hinges on urban neighbourhoods being amenity-rich spaces, reducing the need for residents to leave their neighbourhood for everyday living. While older people are attracted to urban settings, there has been little empirical evidence linking liveability satisfaction with older people's use of urban neighbourhoods. Using a case study approach employing qualitative (diaries, in-depth interviews) and quantitative (Global Positioning Systems and Geographical Information Systems mapping) methods,this paper explores the effect of the neighbourhood environment and its influence on liveability for older urban people. Reliance on motor vehicles and issues with availability and access to local amenities inhibit local participation for older people. Highlighting these issues furthers our understanding of the landscape planning and design factors that make urban neighbourhoods more liveable for older residents.

The relationship between Bayesian motor unit number estimation and histological measurements of motor neurons in wild-type and SOD1 G93A mice

Objective: To assess the relationship between Bayesian MUNE and histological motor neuron counts in wild-type mice and in an animal model of ALS. Methods: We performed Bayesian MUNE paired with histological counts of motor neurons in the lumbar spinal cord of wild-type mice and transgenic SOD1 G93A mice that show progressive weakness over time. We evaluated the number of acetylcholine endplates that were innervated by a presynaptic nerve. Results: In wild-type mice, the motor unit number in the gastrocnemius muscle estimated by Bayesian MUNE was approximately half the number of motor neurons in the region of the spinal cord that contains the cell bodies of the motor neurons supplying the hindlimb crural flexor muscles. In SOD1 G93A mice, motor neuron numbers declined over time. This was associated with motor endplate denervation at the end-stage of disease. Conclusion: The number of motor neurons in the spinal cord of wild-type mice is proportional to the number of motor units estimated by Bayesian MUNE. In SOD1 G93A mice, there is a lower number of estimated motor units compared to the number of spinal cord motor neurons at the end-stage of disease, and this is associated with disruption of the neuromuscular junction. Significance: Our finding that the Bayesian MUNE method gives estimates of motor unit numbers that are proportional to the numbers of motor neurons in the spinal cord supports the clinical use of Bayesian MUNE in monitoring motor unit loss in ALS patients. © 2012 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology.

Quantitative studies of lower motor neuron degeneration in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis : Evidence for exponential decay of motor unit numbers and greatest rate of loss at the site of onset

Objective: To use our Bayesian method of motor unit number estimation (MUNE) to evaluate lower motor neuron degeneration in ALS. Methods: In subjects with ALS we performed serial MUNE studies. We examined the repeatability of the test and then determined whether the loss of MUs was fitted by an exponential or Weibull distribution. Results: The decline in motor unit (MU) numbers was well-fitted by an exponential decay curve. We calculated the half life of MUs in the abductor digiti minimi (ADM), abductor pollicis brevis (APB) and/or extensor digitorum brevis (EDB) muscles. The mean half life of the MUs of ADM muscle was greater than those of the APB or EDB muscles. The half-life of MUs was less in the ADM muscle of subjects with upper limb than in those with lower limb onset. Conclusions: The rate of loss of lower motor neurons in ALS is exponential, the motor units of the APB decay more quickly than those of the ADM muscle and the rate of loss of motor units is greater at the site of onset of disease. Significance: This shows that the Bayesian MUNE method is useful in following the course and exploring the clinical features of ALS. 2012 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology.

Evaluation of the GHR car following model for traffic safety studies

Traffic safety studies mandate more than what existing micro-simulation models can offer as they postulate that every driver exhibits a safe behaviour. All the microscopic traffic simulation models are consisting of a car-following model and the Gazis–Herman–Rothery (GHR) car-following model is a widely used model. This paper highlights the limitations of the GHR car-following model capability to model longitudinal driving behaviour for safety study purposes. This study reviews and compares different version of the GHR model. To empower the GHR model on precise metrics reproduction a new set of car-following model parameters is offered to simulate unsafe vehicle conflicts. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the new model and short following headways and Time to Collision are employed to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. Risky events are extracted from available NGSIM data to evaluate the modified model against the generic versions of the GHR model. The results from simulation tests illustrate that the proposed model does predict the safety metrics better than the generic GHR model. Additionally it can potentially facilitate assessing and predicting traffic facilities’ safety using microscopic simulation. The new model can predict Near-miss rear-end crashes.

A spatiotemporal analysis of gait freezing and the impact of pedunculopontine nucleus stimulation

Gait freezing is an episodic arrest of locomotion due to an inability to take normal steps. Pedunculopontine nucleus stimulation is an emerging therapy proposed to improve gait freezing, even where refractory to medication. However, the efficacy and precise effects of pedunculopontine nucleus stimulation on Parkinsonian gait disturbance are not established. The clinical application of this new therapy is controversial and it is unknown if bilateral stimulation is more effective than unilateral. Here, in a double-blinded study using objective spatiotemporal gait analysis, we assessed the impact of unilateral and bilateral pedunculopontine nucleus stimulation on triggered episodes of gait freezing and on background deficits of unconstrained gait in Parkinson’s disease. Under experimental conditions, while OFF medication, Parkinsonian patients with severe gait freezing implanted with pedunculopontine nucleus stimulators below the pontomesencephalic junction were assessed during three conditions; off stimulation, unilateral stimulation and bilateral stimulation. Results were compared to Parkinsonian patients without gait freezing matched for disease severity and healthy controls. Pedunculopontine nucleus stimulation improved objective measures of gait freezing, with bilateral stimulation more effective than unilateral. During unconstrained walking, Parkinsonian patients who experience gait freezing had reduced step length and increased step length variability compared to patients without gait freezing; however, these deficits were unchanged by pedunculopontine nucleus stimulation. Chronic pedunculopontine nucleus stimulation improved Freezing of Gait Questionnaire scores, reflecting a reduction of the freezing encountered in patients’ usual environments and medication states. This study provides objective, double-blinded evidence that in a specific subgroup of Parkinsonian patients, stimulation of a caudal pedunculopontine nucleus region selectively improves gait freezing but not background deficits in step length. Bilateral stimulation was more effective than unilateral.

Assembly line balancing the comparison of COMSOAL and MSNSH technique in Motorcycle manufacturing company

Today’s highly competitive market influences the manufacturing industry to improve their production systems to become the optimal system in the shortest cycle time as possible. One of most common problems in manufacturing systems is the assembly line balancing problem. The assembly line balancing problem involves task assignments to workstations with optimum line efficiency. The line balancing technique, namely “COMSOAL”, is an abbreviation of “Computer Method for Sequencing Operations for Assembly Lines”. Arcus initially developed the COMSOAL technique in 1966 [1], and it has been mainly applied to solve assembly line balancing problems [6]. The most common purposes of COMSOAL are to minimise idle time, optimise production line efficiency, and minimise the number of workstations. Therefore, this project will implement COMSOAL to balance an assembly line in the motorcycle industry. The new solution by COMSOAL will be used to compare with the previous solution that was developed by Multi‐Started Neighborhood Search Heuristic (MSNSH), which will result in five aspects including cycle time, total idle time, line efficiency, average daily productivity rate, and the workload balance. The journal name “Optimising and simulating the assembly line balancing problem in a motorcycle manufacturing company: a case study” will be used as the case study for this project [5].

A case-control study of ambient heat exposure and urolithiasis among outdoor workers in a shipbuilding company, Guangzhou, China

Higher ambient temperatures will increase heat stress on workers, leading to impacts upon their individual health and productivity. In particular, research has indicated that higher ambient temperatures can increase the prevalence of urolithiasis. This thesis examines the relationship between ambient heat exposure and urolithiasis among outdoor workers in a shipbuilding company in Guangzhou, China, and makes recommendations for minimising the possible impacts of high ambient temperatures on urolithiasis. A retrospective 1:4 matched case-control study was performed to investigate the association between ambient heat exposure and urolithiasis. Ambient heat exposure was characterised by total exposure time, type of work, department and length of service. The data were obtained from the affiliated hospital of the shipbuilding company under study for the period 2003 to 2010. A conditional logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between heat exposure and urolithiasis. This study found that the odds ratio (OR) of urolithiasis for total exposure time was 1.5 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2–1.8). Eight types of work in the shipbuilding company were investigated, including welder, assembler, production security and quality inspector, planing machine operator, spray painter, gas-cutting worker and indoor employee. Five out of eight types of work had significantly higher risks for urolithiasis, and four of the five mainly consisted of outdoors work with ORs of 4.4 (95% CI: 1.7–11.4) for spray painter, 3.8 (95% CI: 1.9–7.2) for welder, 2.7 (95% CI: 1.4–5.0) for production security and quality inspector, and 2.2 (95% CI: 1.1–4.3) for assembler, compared to the reference group (indoor employee). Workers with abnormal blood pressure (hypertension) were more likely to have urolithiasis with an OR of 1.6 (95% CI: 1.0–2.5) compared to those without hypertension. This study contributes to the understanding of the association between ambient heat exposure and urolithiasis among outdoor workers in China. In the context of global climate change, this is particularly important because rising temperatures are expected to increase the prevalence of urolithiasis among outdoor workers, putting greater pressure on productivity, occupational health management and health care systems. The results of this study have clear implications for public health policy and planning, as they indicate that more attention is required to protect outdoor workers from heat-related urolithiasis.

Marginal reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo with application to motor unit number estimation

Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is a method which aims to provide a quantitative indicator of progression of diseases that lead to loss of motor units, such as motor neurone disease. However the development of a reliable, repeatable and fast real-time MUNE method has proved elusive hitherto. Ridall et al. (2007) implement a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm to produce a posterior distribution for the number of motor units using a Bayesian hierarchical model that takes into account biological information about motor unit activation. However we find that the approach can be unreliable for some datasets since it can suffer from poor cross-dimensional mixing. Here we focus on improved inference by marginalising over latent variables to create the likelihood. In particular we explore how this can improve the RJMCMC mixing and investigate alternative approaches that utilise the likelihood (e.g. DIC (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002)). For this model the marginalisation is over latent variables which, for a larger number of motor units, is an intractable summation over all combinations of a set of latent binary variables whose joint sample space increases exponentially with the number of motor units. We provide a tractable and accurate approximation for this quantity and also investigate simulation approaches incorporated into RJMCMC using results of Andrieu and Roberts (2009).

I just want to design a sexy flying car! Teaching design-led innovation to designers

Many international management programs have capitalised on the value design can have upon potential business solutions and strategies (Martin, 2009 & Brown, 2008) as well as many international design programs introducing designers to business theory and curriculum (Manzini & Rizzo, 2011). This paper presents the findings from structured interviews with undergraduate design students and design industry professionals. Current literature surrounding design led innovation and the role designers’ play within it is also discussed and the challenges facing designers in this emerging design era are presented. The findings from this study indicate that most designers enter an undergraduate program not wanting to become the business leaders of tomorrow. Instead, they enter in the hope they can humbly help people and to make a difference in the world. There are contentions with this perspective, felt by industry, academia and students around why designers need to be taught business theory content. This paper provides the first step to overcoming this challenge by providing insight into the attitudes, perceptions and challenges designers are facing with this new design era.

Understanding process behaviours in a large insurance company in Australia : a case study

Having a reliable understanding about the behaviours, problems, and performance of existing processes is important in enabling a targeted process improvement initiative. Recently, there has been an increase in the application of innovative process mining techniques to facilitate evidence-based understanding about organizations' business processes. Nevertheless, the application of these techniques in the domain of finance in Australia is, at best, scarce. This paper details a 6-month case study on the application of process mining in one of the largest insurance companies in Australia. In particular, the challenges encountered, the lessons learned, and the results obtained from this case study are detailed. Through this case study, we not only validated existing `lessons learned' from other similar case studies, but also added new insights that can be beneficial to other practitioners in applying process mining in their respective fields.

Motorcycle Safety Research Project Interim Summary Report Research Deliverable 1: Investigate and Develop a Pre-learner Motorcycle Licensing Package

Motorcycle trauma is a serious road safety issue in Queensland and throughout Australia. In 2009, Queensland Transport (later Transport and Main Roads or TMR) appointed CARRS-Q to provide a three-year program of Road Safety Research Services for Motorcycle Rider Safety. Funding for this research originated from the Motor Accident Insurance Commission. This program of research was undertaken to produce knowledge to assist TMR to improve motorcycle safety by further strengthening the licensing and training system to make learner riders safer by developing a pre-learner package (Deliverable 1 which is the focus of this report), and by evaluating the Q-Ride CAP program to ensure that it is maximally effective and contributes to the best possible training for new riders (Deliverable 2), which is the focus of this report. Deliverable 3 of the program identified potential new licensing components that will reduce the incidence of risky riding and improve higher-order cognitive skills in new riders. While fatality and injury rates for learner car drivers are typically lower than for those with intermediate licences, this pattern is not found for learner motorcycle riders. Learner riders cannot be supervised as effectively as learner car drivers and errors are more likely to result in injury for learner riders than learner drivers. It is therefore imperative to improve safety for learner riders. Deliverable 1 examines the potential for improving the motorcycle learner and licence scheme by introducing a pre-learner motorcycle licensing and training scheme within Queensland. The tasks undertaken for Deliverable 1 were a literature review, analysis of learner motorcyclist crash and licensing data, and the development of a potential pre-learner motorcycle rider program.

On the commonly accepted assumptions regarding observed motor vehicle crash counts at transport system locations

Readily accepted knowledge regarding crash causation is consistently omitted from efforts to model and subsequently understand motor vehicle crash occurrence and their contributing factors. For instance, distracted and impaired driving accounts for a significant proportion of crash occurrence, yet is rarely modeled explicitly. In addition, spatially allocated influences such as local law enforcement efforts, proximity to bars and schools, and roadside chronic distractions (advertising, pedestrians, etc.) play a role in contributing to crash occurrence and yet are routinely absent from crash models. By and large, these well-established omitted effects are simply assumed to contribute to model error, with predominant focus on modeling the engineering and operational effects of transportation facilities (e.g. AADT, number of lanes, speed limits, width of lanes, etc.) The typical analytical approach—with a variety of statistical enhancements—has been to model crashes that occur at system locations as negative binomial (NB) distributed events that arise from a singular, underlying crash generating process. These models and their statistical kin dominate the literature; however, it is argued in this paper that these models fail to capture the underlying complexity of motor vehicle crash causes, and thus thwart deeper insights regarding crash causation and prevention. This paper first describes hypothetical scenarios that collectively illustrate why current models mislead highway safety researchers and engineers. It is argued that current model shortcomings are significant, and will lead to poor decision-making. Exploiting our current state of knowledge of crash causation, crash counts are postulated to arise from three processes: observed network features, unobserved spatial effects, and ‘apparent’ random influences that reflect largely behavioral influences of drivers. It is argued; furthermore, that these three processes in theory can be modeled separately to gain deeper insight into crash causes, and that the model represents a more realistic depiction of reality than the state of practice NB regression. An admittedly imperfect empirical model that mixes three independent crash occurrence processes is shown to outperform the classical NB model. The questioning of current modeling assumptions and implications of the latent mixture model to current practice are the most important contributions of this paper, with an initial but rather vulnerable attempt to model the latent mixtures as a secondary contribution.

Systematic variation of the severity of motor vehicle accident-related traumatic brain injury vignettes produces different post-concussion symptom reports

This study investigated the specificity of the post-concussion syndrome (PCS) expectation-as-etiology hypothesis. Undergraduate students (n = 551) were randomly allocated to one of three vignette conditions. Vignettes depicted either a very mild (VMI), mild (MI), or moderate-to-severe (MSI) motor vehicle-related traumatic brain injury (TBI). Participants reported the PCS and PTSD symptoms that they imagined the depicted injury would produce. Secondary outcomes (knowledge of mild TBI, and the perceived undesirability of TBI) were also assessed. After data screening, the distribution of participants by condition was: VMI (n = 100), MI (n = 96), and MSI (n = 71). There was a significant effect of condition on PCS symptomatology, F(2, 264) = 16.55, p < .001. Significantly greater PCS symptomatology was expected in the MSI condition compared to the other conditions (MSI > VMI; medium effect, r = .33; MSI > MI; small-to-medium effect, r = .22). The same pattern of group differences was found for PTSD symptoms, F(2, 264) = 17.12, p < .001. Knowledge of mild TBI was not related to differences in expected PCS symptoms by condition; and the perceived undesirability of TBI was only associated with reported PCS symptomatology in the MSI condition. Systematic variation in the severity of a depicted TBI produces different PCS and PTSD symptom expectations. Even a very mild TBI vignette can elicit expectations of PCS symptoms.