A Framework for Adaptation of Australian Households to Heat Waves

Climate change is leading to an increased frequency and severity of heat waves. Spells of several consecutive days of unusually high temperatures have led to increased mortality rates for the more vulnerable in the community. The problem is compounded by the escalating energy costs and increasing peak electrical demand as people become more reliant on air conditioning. Domestic air conditioning is the primary determinant of peak power demand which has been a major driver of higher electricity costs. This report presents the findings of multidisciplinary research which develops a national framework to evaluate the potential impacts of heat waves. It presents a technical, social and economic approach to adapt Australian residential buildings to ameliorate the impact of heat waves in the community and reduce the risk of its adverse outcomes. Through the development of a methodology for estimating the impact of global warming on key weather parameters in 2030 and 2050, it is possible to re-evaluate the size and anticipated energy consumption of air conditioners in future years for various climate zones in Australia. Over the coming decades it is likely that mainland Australia will require more cooling than heating. While in some parts the total electricity usage for heating and cooling may remain unchanged, there is an overall significant increase in peak electricity demand, likely to further drive electricity prices. Through monitoring groups of households in South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland, the impact of heat waves on both thermal comfort sensation and energy consumption for air conditioning has been evaluated. The results show that households are likely to be able to tolerate slightly increased temperature levels indoors during periods of high outside temperatures. The research identified that household electricity costs are likely to rise above what is currently projected due to the impact of climate change. Through a number of regulatory changes to both household design and air conditioners, this impact can be minimised. A number of proposed retrofit and design measures are provided, which can readily reduce electricity usage for cooling at minimal cost to the household. Using a number of social research instruments, it is evident that households are willing to change behaviour rather than to spend money. Those on lower income and elderly individuals are the least able to afford the use of air conditioning and should be a priority for interventions and assistance. Increasing community awareness of cost effective strategies to manage comfort and health during heat waves is a high priority recommended action. Overall, the research showed that a combined approach including behaviour change, dwelling modification and improved air conditioner selection can readily adapt Australian households to the impact of heat waves, reducing the risk of heat related deaths and household energy costs.

The effect of MC1R variants and sunscreen on the response of human melanocytes in vivo to ultraviolet radiation and implications for melanoma.

We conducted a clinical trial to compare the molecular and cellular responses of human melanocytes and keratinocytes in vivo to solar-simulated ultraviolet radiation (SSUVR) in 57 Caucasian participants grouped according to MC1R genotype. We found that, on average, the density of epidermal melanocytes 14 days after exposure to 2 minimal erythemal dose (MED) SSUVR was twofold higher than baseline (unirradiated) skin. However, the change in epidermal melanocyte counts among people carrying germline MC1R variants (97% increase) was significantly less than those with wild-type MC1R (164% increase; P = 0.01). We also found that sunscreen applied to the skin before exposure to 2 MED SSUVR completely blocked the effects of DNA damage, p53 induction, and cellular proliferation in both melanocytes and keratinocytes.

Familial recurrence risks for multiple sclerosis in Australia

BACKGROUND: Genetic susceptibility to multiple sclerosis (MS) has been recognised for many years. Considerable data exist from the northern hemisphere regarding the familial recurrence risks for MS, but there are few data for the southern hemisphere and regions at lower latitude such as Australia. To investigate the interaction between environmental and genetic causative factors in MS, the authors undertook a familial recurrence risk study in three latitudinally distinct regions of Australia. METHODS: Immediate and extended family pedigrees have been collected for three cohorts of people with MS in Queensland, Victoria and Tasmania spanning 15° of latitude. Age of onset data from Queensland were utilised to estimate age-adjusted recurrence rates. RESULTS: Recurrence risks in Australia were significantly lower than in studies from northern hemisphere populations. The age-adjusted risk for siblings across Australia was 2.13% compared with 3.5% for the northern hemisphere. A similar pattern was seen for other relatives. The risks to relatives were proportional to the population risks for each site, and hence the sibling recurrence-risk ratio (λ(s)) was similar across all sites. DISCUSSION: The familial recurrence risk of MS in Australia is lower than in previously reported studies. This is directly related to the lower population prevalence of MS. The overall genetic susceptibility in Australia as measured by the λ(s) is similar to the northern hemisphere, suggesting that the difference in population risk is explained largely by environmental factors rather than by genetic admixture.

Examining the stability of transport behaviours for high-risk early adolescents

Transport related injury is a leading cause of death and disability for adolescents and represents a substantial burden on public health and the community as a whole. Adolescents appear to have a growing risk of harm due to the co-existence of increasing alcohol use and engagement in risky transport behaviours. Understanding more about the development and stability of these behaviours by young adolescents over time could be beneficial in targeting transport injury prevention interventions for high-risk adolescents. In Australia alcohol use begins to increase significantly through the early and middle adolescent years even though the majority of these young people are still in school. Aim This paper reports on changes over a six month period in alcohol use, anger management experiences and transport risk taking behaviours including riding a bicycle without a helmet and under-age driving for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk early adolescents. Year 9 students (N=1,005) from 20 schools in Queensland, Australia completed a baseline survey in the first half of 2012 and at a six month follow up. Respondents at both times were asked about their engagement in risk taking behaviours measured by Mak’s adolescent delinquency scale, which included five transport related items. They were also asked to rate their alcohol use for the preceding three month period. The stability of these risk taking indicators was measured by comparing baseline results with the six month follow up. Results High-risk adolescents were more likely to report change in their alcohol use and transport behaviours when compared with non high-risk adolescents over a six month period. There were no significant changes in control of anger for either group. Demographic characteristics were not shown to have any significant effect on the stability of risk indicators for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk adolescents. Differences were found in the stability of risk taking indicators for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk adolescents. The findings of this paper have implications in targeting transport risk behaviour change interventions to meet the needs of high-risk adolescents.

Genome-wide association study identifies new multiple sclerosis susceptibility loci on chromosomes 12 and 20

To identify multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility loci, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 1,618 cases and used shared data for 3,413 controls. We performed replication in an independent set of 2,256 cases and 2,310 controls, for a total of 3,874 cases and 5,723 controls. We identified risk-associated SNPs on chromosome 12q13-14 (rs703842, P = 5.4 x 10(-11); rs10876994, P = 2.7 x 10(-10); rs12368653, P = 1.0 x 10(-7)) and upstream of CD40 on chromosome 20q13 (rs6074022, P = 1.3 x 10(-7); rs1569723, P = 2.9 x 10(-7)). Both loci are also associated with other autoimmune diseases. We also replicated several known MS associations (HLA-DR15, P = 7.0 x 10(-184); CD58, P = 9.6 x 10(-8); EVI5-RPL5, P = 2.5 x 10(-6); IL2RA, P = 7.4 x 10(-6); CLEC16A, P = 1.1 x 10(-4); IL7R, P = 1.3 x 10(-3); TYK2, P = 3.5 x 10(-3)) and observed a statistical interaction between SNPs in EVI5-RPL5 and HLA-DR15 (P = 0.001).

Mutations in cardiac T-Box Factor gene TBX20 are associated with diverse cardiac pathologies, including defects of septation and valvulogenesis and cardiomyopathy

The T-box family transcription factor gene TBX20 acts in a conserved regulatory network, guiding heart formation and patterning in diverse species. Mouse Tbx20 is expressed in cardiac progenitor cells, differentiating cardiomyocytes, and developing valvular tissue, and its deletion or RNA interference-mediated knockdown is catastrophic for heart development. TBX20 interacts physically, functionally, and genetically with other cardiac transcription factors, including NKX2-5, GATA4, and TBX5, mutations of which cause congenital heart disease (CHD). Here, we report nonsense (Q195X) and missense (I152M) germline mutations within the T-box DNA-binding domain of human TBX20 that were associated with a family history of CHD and a complex spectrum of developmental anomalies, including defects in septation, chamber growth, and valvulogenesis. Biophysical characterization of wild-type and mutant proteins indicated how the missense mutation disrupts the structure and function of the TBX20 T-box. Dilated cardiomyopathy was a feature of the TBX20 mutant phenotype in humans and mice, suggesting that mutations in developmental transcription factors can provide a sensitized template for adult-onset heart disease. Our findings are the first to link TBX20 mutations to human pathology. They provide insights into how mutation of different genes in an interactive regulatory circuit lead to diverse clinical phenotypes, with implications for diagnosis, genetic screening, and patient follow-up.

Multi-gene phylogenetic analysis of south-east Asian pest members of the Bactrocera dorsalis species complex (Diptera: Tephritidae) does not support current taxonomy

Bactrocera dorsalis sensu stricto, B. papayae, B. philippinensis and B. carambolae are serious pest fruit fly species of the B. dorsalis complex that predominantly occur in south-east Asia and the Pacific. Identifying molecular diagnostics has proven problematic for these four taxa, a situation that cofounds biosecurity and quarantine efforts and which may be the result of at least some of these taxa representing the same biological species. We therefore conducted a phylogenetic study of these four species (and closely related outgroup taxa) based on the individuals collected from a wide geographic range; sequencing six loci (cox1, nad4-3′, CAD, period, ITS1, ITS2) for approximately 20 individuals from each of 16 sample sites. Data were analysed within maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic frameworks for individual loci and concatenated data sets for which we applied multiple monophyly and species delimitation tests. Species monophyly was measured by clade support, posterior probability or bootstrap resampling for Bayesian and likelihood analyses respectively, Rosenberg's reciprocal monophyly measure, P(AB), Rodrigo's (P(RD)) and the genealogical sorting index, gsi. We specifically tested whether there was phylogenetic support for the four 'ingroup' pest species using a data set of multiple individuals sampled from a number of populations. Based on our combined data set, Bactrocera carambolae emerges as a distinct monophyletic clade, whereas B. dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis are unresolved. These data add to the growing body of evidence that B. dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis are the same biological species, which poses consequences for quarantine, trade and pest management.

Developing targets and strategies for school-based injury prevention programs to reduce alcohol associated transport risks

Background There is considerable and ongoing debate about the role and effectiveness of school-based injury prevention programs in reducing students’ later involvement in alcohol associated transport injuries. Most relevant literature is concerned with pre-driving and licensing programs for middle age range adolescents (15-17 years). This research team is concerned with prevention at an earlier stage by targeting interventions to young adolescents (13-14 years). There is strong evidence that young adolescents who engage in unsafe and illegal alcohol associated transport risks are significantly likely to incur serious related injuries in longitudinal follow up. For example, a state-wide representative sample of male adolescents (mean age 14.5 years) who reported being passengers of drink drivers were significantly more likely to have incurred a hospitalised injury related to traffic events at a 20 year follow up. Aim This paper reports on first aid training integrated with peer protection and school connectedness within the Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) program. A component of the intervention is concerned with providing strategies to reduce the likelihood of being a passenger of a drink driver and effectiveness is followed up at six months post-intervention. Method In early 2012 the study was undertaken in 35 high schools throughout Queensland that were randomly assigned to intervention and control conditions. A total of 2,521 Year 9 students (mean age 13.5years, 43% male) completed surveys prior to the intervention. Results Of these students 316 (13.7%) reported having ridden in a car with someone who has been drinking. This is a traffic safety behaviour that is particularly relevant to a peer protection intervention and the findings of the six month follow up will be reported. Discussion and conclusions This research will provide evidence as to whether this approach to the introduction of first aid skills within a school-based health education curriculum has traffic safety implications.

In their own words : adolescents strategies to prevent friend's risk taking

Injury is a significant public health problem among youth. A primary cause of adolescent injury is risk-taking behavior, including alcohol use, interpersonal violence and road-related risks. A novel approach to prevention is building on friendships by encouraging adolescents to intervene into their friends’ risk taking. Fifty-one early adolescents (13-14 years) and 44 older adolescents (16-17 years) from two Australian schools participated in focus groups, aiming to explore stories of intervening. Findings showed preference for talking to friends; however, participants also spoke to adults, monitored friends’ behavior and planned ahead. Close friendships, perceived harm, and self-efficacy influenced the likelihood of intervening. These findings have implications for the design of risk and injury prevention programs, by suggesting strategies to promote adolescents’ communicative ability for risk reduction. The findings also highlight the language and dialogue of adolescents and suggest that methods for increasing intervening behavior should focus on building social connectedness and increasing self-efficacy.

The effects of risk factors and protective factors on influencing engagement in risky behaviours and injury experiences for high-risk adolescents

High-risk adolescents are most vulnerable to the negative outcomes of risk taking behaviour, such as injury. It has been theorised by Jessor (1987) that adolescent risk behaviours (e.g. violence, alcohol use) can be predicted by assessing the risk factors (e.g. peer models for violence) and protective factors (e.g. school connectedness) in a young person’s life. The aim of this research is to examine the influence of risk factors and protective factors on the proneness of high-risk adolescents to engage in risky behaviour. 2,521 Grade 9 students (13-14 years of age) from 35 schools in Queensland, Australia participated in this study. The findings examine the influence of risk factors and protective factors on self-reported risky behaviour and injury experiences for adolescents who have been categorized as high-risk. Thereby, providing insight that may be used to target preventive interventions aimed at high-risk adolescents.

An efficient algorithm for the detection of Eden

In this paper, a polynomial time algorithm is presented for solving the Eden problem for graph cellular automata. The algorithm is based on our neighborhood elimination operation which removes local neighborhood configurations which cannot be used in a pre-image of a given configuration. This paper presents a detailed derivation of our algorithm from first principles, and a detailed complexity and accuracy analysis is also given. In the case of time complexity, it is shown that the average case time complexity of the algorithm is \Theta(n^2), and the best and worst cases are \Omega(n) and O(n^3) respectively. This represents a vast improvement in the upper bound over current methods, without compromising average case performance.

Development of school connectedness as a component of an injury prevention program for early adolescents

The current program of research addresses the need for multi-level programs to target the major increase in injury rates that occurs throughout adolescence. Specifically, it involves the investigation of school connectedness as a protective factor for adolescent injury, and the development of school connectedness as a component of an injury prevention program. To date, school-based risk taking and injury prevention has frequently been limited to addressing adolescents' knowledge and attitudes to risk behaviours, and has largely overlooked the importance of the wider school social context as a protective factor in adolescent development. Additionally, school connectedness has been primarily studied in terms of its impact on student achievement, wellbeing and risk taking behaviour, and research has not yet addressed possible links with injury. Further, school connectedness intervention programs have targeted risk taking behaviours without evaluating their potential impact on injury outcomes. This is the first reported research to develop strategies to increase school connectedness as part of a school-based injury prevention program. The research program was conceptualised as three distinct stages. The development of these research stages was informed by a comprehensive review of the literature on adolescent risk taking, injury and school-based prevention, as well as on school connectedness and its importance in adolescence. A review of the school connectedness literature indicated that students' connectedness is largely influenced by relationships within the school context including with teachers and other school staff, and is therefore a potentially modifiable factor that may be targeted in school-based programs. Overall, the literature shows school connectedness to be a key protective factor in adolescent development. This review established a foundation from which the current program of research was designed. The first stage of the research involved an empirical investigation of the relationship between adolescent risk taking-related injuries and school connectedness. Stage one incorporated two studies. The first involved the development of a measure of adolescent injury, the Extended Adolescent Injury Checklist (E-AIC), for use in the current research as well as in future school-based studies and program evaluation. The results of this study also highlighted the extent of the problem of risk-related injury in adolescence. The second study in Stage one examined the relationship between students' reports of school connectedness, risk taking behaviour and risk taking-related injuries on the E-AIC. The results of this study showed significant relationships between increased school connectedness and reduced reported engagement in transport and violence risk taking, and fewer associated injuries. This study therefore suggested the potential for school-based injury prevention programs to incorporate strategies targeting increased adolescent connectedness to school. The second stage of this research involved the compilation of an evidence base to inform the design of a school connectedness intervention. Stage two also incorporated two studies. The first study in Stage two involved a systematic review of programs that have targeted school connectedness for reduced risk taking and injury. The results of this study revealed that interventions targeting school connectedness can be effective in reducing adolescent risk taking behaviour, and also provided an evidence base for the design of the current school connectedness intervention. The second study in Stage two examined teachers' understanding and perceptions of school connectedness. This qualitative study indicated that teachers consider students' connectedness to be an important factor that relates to their risk taking behaviour; and also provided directions and content for the intervention design stage. The third stage of this research built upon the findings of each of the previous studies, and involved the design, implementation and evaluation of a school connectedness intervention as a component of an adolescent injury prevention program, Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY). This connectedness intervention was designed as a professional development workshop for teachers of 13 to 14 year old adolescents, and was developed as a complementary component to the curriculum-based SPIY program. The SPIY connectedness component was implemented and evaluated using process and six-month impact evaluation methodologies. The results of this study revealed that teachers saw value in the program and made use of the strategies presented, and that program school students' self-reported violence risk behaviour was reduced at six-month follow-up. Despite these promising findings, the results of this study did not demonstrate a significant impact of the program on change in students' connectedness to school, relative to comparison schools. The positive impact on self-reported violence risk behaviour was however replicated in additional analyses comparing students participating in the connectedness version of SPIY with students participating in an earlier curriculumonly version of the program. This finding indicated that the connectedness component has additional benefits relating to reduction in violence risks, over and above a curriculum-only version of the program. This research was the first reported to address the relationship between school connectedness and adolescent injury outcomes, and to develop school connectedness as a component of an adolescent injury prevention program. Overall, the results of this program of research have demonstrated the importance of incorporating strategies targeting the wider school social context, including school connectedness, in adolescent injury prevention programs. This research has important implications for future research and practice in adolescent injury prevention.

HLA-DRB1 associations with disease susceptibility and clinical course in Australians with multiple sclerosis

Human leucocyte antigen (HLA)-DRB1*1501 and other class II alleles influence susceptibility to multiple sclerosis (MS), but their contribution if any to the clinical course of MS remains uncertain. Here, we have investigated DRB1 alleles in a large sample of 1230 Australian MS cases, with some enrichment for subjects with primary progressive (PPMS) disease (n = 246) and 1210 healthy controls. Using logistic regression, we found that DRB1*1501 was strongly associated with risk (P = 7 x 10-45), as expected, and after adjusting for DRB1*1501, a predisposing effect was also observed for DRB1*03 (P = 5 x 10-7). Individuals homozygous for either DRB1*15 or DRB1*03 were considerably more at risk of MS than heterozygotes and non-carriers. Both the DRB1*04 and the DRB1*01/DRB1*15 genotype combination, respectively, protected against PPMS in comparison to subjects with relapsing disease. Together, these data provide further evidence of heterogeneity at the DRB1 locus and confirm the importance of HLA variants in the phenotypic expression of MS.

A high-throughput panel for identifying clinically relevant mutation profiles in melanoma

Success with molecular-based targeted drugs in the treatment of cancer has ignited extensive research efforts within the field of personalized therapeutics. However, successful application of such therapies is dependent on the presence or absence of mutations within the patient's tumor that can confer clinical efficacy or drug resistance. Building on these findings, we developed a high-throughput mutation panel for the identification of frequently occurring and clinically relevant mutations in melanoma. An extensive literature search and interrogation of the Catalogue of Somatic Mutations in Cancer database identified more than 1,000 melanoma mutations. Applying a filtering strategy to focus on mutations amenable to the development of targeted drugs, we initially screened 120 known mutations in 271 samples using the Sequenom MassARRAY system. A total of 252 mutations were detected in 17 genes, the highest frequency occurred in BRAF (n = 154, 57%), NRAS (n = 55, 20%), CDK4 (n = 8, 3%), PTK2B (n = 7, 2.5%), and ERBB4 (n = 5, 2%). Based on this initial discovery screen, a total of 46 assays interrogating 39 mutations in 20 genes were designed to develop a melanoma-specific panel. These assays were distributed in multiplexes over 8 wells using strict assay design parameters optimized for sensitive mutation detection. The final melanoma-specific mutation panel is a cost effective, sensitive, high-throughput approach for identifying mutations of clinical relevance to molecular-based therapeutics for the treatment of melanoma. When used in a clinical research setting, the panel may rapidly and accurately identify potentially effective treatment strategies using novel or existing molecularly targeted drugs

Exome sequencing identifies recurrent somatic RAC1 mutations in melanoma

We characterized the mutational landscape of melanoma, the form of skin cancer with the highest mortality rate, by sequencing the exomes of 147 melanomas. Sun-exposed melanomas had markedly more ultraviolet (UV)-like C>T somatic mutations compared to sun-shielded acral, mucosal and uveal melanomas. Among the newly identified cancer genes was PPP6C, encoding a serine/threonine phosphatase, which harbored mutations that clustered in the active site in 12% of sun-exposed melanomas, exclusively in tumors with mutations in BRAF or NRAS. Notably, we identified a recurrent UV-signature, an activating mutation in RAC1 in 9.2% of sun-exposed melanomas. This activating mutation, the third most frequent in our cohort of sun-exposed melanoma after those of BRAF and NRAS, changes Pro29 to serine (RAC1P29S) in the highly conserved switch I domain. Crystal structures, and biochemical and functional studies of RAC1P29S showed that the alteration releases the conformational restraint conferred by the conserved proline, causes an increased binding of the protein to downstream effectors, and promotes melanocyte proliferation and migration. These findings raise the possibility that pharmacological inhibition of downstream effectors of RAC1 signaling could be of therapeutic benefit.