The valuation accuracy of multiples in mergers and acquisitions, and their association with firm misvaluation

This study explores the accuracy and valuation implications of the application of a comprehensive list of equity multiples in the takeover context. Motivating the study is the prevalent use of equity multiples in practice, the observed long-run underperformance of acquirers following takeovers, and the scarcity of multiplesbased research in the merger and acquisition setting. In exploring the application of equity multiples in this context three research questions are addressed: (1) how accurate are equity multiples (RQ1); which equity multiples are more accurate in valuing the firm (RQ2); and which equity multiples are associated with greater misvaluation of the firm (RQ3). Following a comprehensive review of the extant multiples-based literature it is hypothesised that the accuracy of multiples in estimating stock market prices in the takeover context will rank as follows (from best to worst): (1) forecasted earnings multiples, (2) multiples closer to bottom line earnings, (3) multiples based on Net Cash Flow from Operations (NCFO) and trading revenue. The relative inaccuracies in multiples are expected to flow through to equity misvaluation (as measured by the ratio of estimated market capitalisation to residual income value, or P/V). Accordingly, it is hypothesised that greater overvaluation will be exhibited for multiples based on Trading Revenue, NCFO, Book Value (BV) and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) versus multiples based on bottom line earnings; and that multiples based on Intrinsic Value will display the least overvaluation. The hypotheses are tested using a sample of 147 acquirers and 129 targets involved in Australian takeover transactions announced between 1990 and 2005. The results show that first, the majority of computed multiples examined exhibit valuation errors within 30 percent of stock market values. Second, and consistent with expectations, the results provide support for the superiority of multiples based on forecasted earnings in valuing targets and acquirers engaged in takeover transactions. Although a gradual improvement in estimating stock market values is not entirely evident when moving down the Income Statement, historical earnings multiples perform better than multiples based on Trading Revenue or NCFO. Third, while multiples based on forecasted earnings have the highest valuation accuracy they, along with Trading Revenue multiples for targets, produce the most overvalued valuations for acquirers and targets. Consistent with predictions, greater overvaluation is exhibited for multiples based on Trading Revenue for targets, and NCFO and EBITDA for both acquirers and targets. Finally, as expected, multiples based Intrinsic Value (along with BV) are associated with the least overvaluation. Given the widespread usage of valuation multiples in takeover contexts these findings offer a unique insight into their relative effectiveness. Importantly, the findings add to the growing body of valuation accuracy literature, especially within Australia, and should assist market participants to better understand the relative accuracy and misvaluation consequences of various equity multiples used in takeover documentation and assist them in subsequent investment decision making.

Writing the oriental woman : an examination of the representation of Japanese women in contemporary Australian crime fiction

This study considers the challenges in representing women from other cultures in the crime fiction genre. The study is presented in two parts; an exegesis and a creative practice component consisting of a full length crime fiction novel, Batafurai. The exegesis examines the historical period of a section of the novel—post-war Japan—and how the area of research known as Occupation Studies provides an insight into the conditions of women during this period. The exegesis also examines selected postcolonial theory and its exposition of representations of the 'other' as a western construct designed to serve Eurocentric ends. The genre of crime fiction is reviewed, also, to determine how characters purportedly representing Oriental cultures are constricted by established stereotypes. Two case studies are examined to investigate whether these stereotypes are still apparent in contemporary Australian crime fiction. Finally, I discuss my own novel, Batafurai, to review how I represented people of Asian background, and whether my attempts to resist stereotype were successful. My conclusion illustrates how novels written in the crime fiction genre are reliant on strategies that are action-focused, rather than character-based, and thus often use easily recognizable types to quickly establish frameworks for their stories. As a sub-set of popular fiction, crime fiction has a tendency to replicate rather than challenge established stereotypes. Where it does challenge stereotypes, it reflects a territory that popular culture has already visited, such as the 'female', 'black' or 'gay' detective. Crime fiction also has, as one of its central concerns, an interest in examining and reinforcing the notion of societal order. It repeatedly demonstrates that crime either does not pay or should not pay. One of the ways it does this is to contrast what is 'good', known and understood with what is 'bad', unknown, foreign or beyond our normal comprehension. In western culture, the east has traditionally been employed as the site of difference, and has been constantly used as a setting of contrast, excitement or fear. Crime fiction conforms to this pattern, using the east to add a richness and depth to what otherwise might become a 'dry' tale. However, when used in such a way, what is variously eastern, 'other' or Oriental can never be paramount, always falling to secondary side of the binary opposites (good/evil, known/unknown, redeemed/doomed) at work. In an age of globalisation, the challenge for contemporary writers of popular fiction is to be responsive to an audience that demands respect for all cultures. Writers must demonstrate that they are sensitive to such concerns and can skillfully manage the tensions caused by the need to deliver work that operates within the parameters of the genre, and the desire to avoid offence to any cultural or ethnic group. In my work, my strategy to manage these tensions has been to create a back-story for my characters of Asian background, developing them above mere genre types, and to situate them with credibility in time and place through appropriate historical research.

Give some, get some: investigating the relationship between conspicuous donation behaviour on social media and customer value in a blood donation context

Previous research has questioned the role of altruism in charitable donation and suggests that such behaviour is also motivated by self-interest, such as public recognition or emotional satisfaction. Recognising this, not-for-profit organisations have developed strategies that allow individuals to donate conspicuously, and are at an embryonic stage of turning to social media to provide such recognition. Under investigation in this paper, is the relationship between conspicuous donation behaviour (CDB) on social media and customer value, in blood donation. Online survey results, from a sample of 186 Australian blood donors, support the proposed framework. Significant relationships between self-orientated CDB and emotional value, and other-orientated CDB and social value are demonstrated. The findings provide valuable insights into the use of conspicuous donation strategies on social media as a means to add value to the donation experience, and contribute to our understanding into the under-researched areas of CDB and customer value.

Peer review of teaching practice and resources : exploring new spaces to embrace cultural change

The implementation of systematic peer review as a professional development activity, and as a support for educational design activities is under-utilised in many Australian higher education institutions. This case study reports on the first stages of planning and implementation of an institution-wide project to enhance teaching and learning quality at a remote and regional university, where one of the major strategies for improvement is peer review. Through a systematic process of staff engagement in peer review, within and from outside the organisation, a substantial change in flexible learning is envisaged. A mix of new and different learning spaces are to be used in the project, including blended learning spaces for academic development. This paper describes the research framework that will guide the peer review process and examines the early findings of the design-based research. Leadership, awareness raising and development of a supportive community of inquiry are seen as key components for successful implementation of peer review. In addition, unique contextual elements add to the complexity of designing for transformative change within such a relatively new organization.

Validation of the interRAI Cognitive Performance Scale against independent clinical diagnosis and the Mini-Mental State Examination in older hospitalized patients

Objective To compare the diagnostic accuracy of the interRAI Acute Care (AC) Cognitive Performance Scale (CPS2) and the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), against independent clinical diagnosis for detecting dementia in older hospitalized patients. Design, Setting, and Participants The study was part of a prospective observational cohort study of patients aged ≥70 years admitted to four acute hospitals in Queensland, Australia, between 2008 and 2010. Recruitment was consecutive and patients expected to remain in hospital for ≥48 hours were eligible to participate. Data for 462 patients were available for this study. Measurements Trained research nurses completed comprehensive geriatric assessments and administered the interRAI AC and MMSE to patients. Two physicians independently reviewed patients’ medical records and assessments to establish the diagnosis of dementia. Indicators of diagnostic accuracy included sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios and areas under receiver (AUC) operating characteristic curves. Results 85 patients (18.4%) were considered to have dementia according to independent clinical diagnosis. The sensitivity of the CPS2 [0.68 (95%CI: 0.58–0.77)] was not statistically different to the MMSE [0.75 (0.64–0.83)] in predicting physician diagnosed dementia. The AUCs for the 2 instruments were also not statistically different: CPS2 AUC = 0.83 (95%CI: 0.78–0.89) and MMSE AUC = 0.87 (95%CI: 0.83–0.91), while the CPS2 demonstrated higher specificity [0.92 95%CI: 0.89–0.95)] than the MMSE [0.82 (0.77–0.85)]. Agreement between the CPS2 and clinical diagnosis was substantial (87.4%; κ=0.61). Conclusion The CPS2 appears to be a reliable screening tool for assessing cognitive impairment in acutely unwell older hospitalized patients. These findings add to the growing body of evidence supporting the utility of the interRAI AC, within which the CPS2 is embedded. The interRAI AC offers the advantage of being able to accurately screen for both dementia and delirium without the need to use additional assessments, thus increasing assessment efficiency.

Emergency Health Services (EHS) : demand and service delivery models. monograph 3 : patients’ reasons and perceptions

Executive Summary Emergency health is a critical component of Australia’s health system and emergency departments (EDs) are increasingly congested from growing demand and blocked access to inpatient beds. The Emergency Health Services Queensland (EHSQ) study aims to identify the factors driving increased demand for emergency health and to evaluate strategies which may safely reduce the future demand growth. This monograph addresses the perspectives of users of both ambulance services and EDs. The research reported here aimed to identify the perspectives of users of emergency health services, both ambulance services and public hospital Emergency Departments and to identify the factors that they took into consideration when exercising their choice of location for acute health care. A cross-sectional survey design was used involving a survey of patients or their carers presenting to the EDs of a stratified sample of eight hospitals. A specific purpose questionnaire was developed based on a novel theoretical model which had been derived from analysis of the literature (Monograph 1). Two survey versions were developed: one for adult patients (self-complete); and one for children (to be completed by parents/guardians). The questionnaires measured perceptions of social support, health status, illness severity, self-efficacy; beliefs and attitudes towards ED and ambulance services; reasons for using these services, and actions taken prior to the service request. The survey was conducted at a stratified sample of eight hospitals representing major cities (four), inner regional (two) and outer regional and remote (two). Due to practical limitations, data were collected for ambulance and ED users within hospital EDs, while patients were waiting for or under treatment. A sample size quota was determined for each ED based on their 2009/10 presentation volumes. The data collection was conducted by four members of the research team and a group of eight interviewers between March and May 2011 (corresponding to autumn season). Of the total of 1608 patients in all eight emergency departments the interviewers were able to approach 1361 (85%) patients and seek their consent to participate in the study. In total, 911 valid surveys were available for analysis (response rate= 67%). These studies demonstrate that patients elected to attend hospital EDs in a considered fashion after weighing up alternatives and there is no evidence of deliberate or ill-informed misuse. • Patients attending ED have high levels of social support and self-efficacy that speak to the considered and purposeful nature of the exercise of choice. • About one third of patients have new conditions while two thirds have chronic illnesses • More than half the attendees (53.1%) had consulted a healthcare professional prior to making the decision. • The decision to seek urgent care at an ED was mostly constructed around the patient’s perception of the urgency and severity of their illness, reinforced by a strong perception that the hospital ED was the correct location for them (better specialised staff, better care for my condition, other options not as suitable). • 33% of the respondent held private hospital insurance but nevertheless attended a public hospital ED. Similarly patients exercised considered and rational judgements in their choice to seek help from the ambulance service. • The decision to call for ambulance assistance was based on a strong perception about the severity of the illness (too severe to use other means of transport) and that other options were not considered appropriate. • The decision also appeared influenced by a perception that the ambulance provided appropriate access to the ED which was considered most appropriate for their particular condition (too severe to go elsewhere, all facilities in one spot, better specialised and better care). • In 43.8% of cases a health care professional advised use of the ambulance. • Only a small number of people perceived that ambulance should be freely available regardless of severity or appropriateness. These findings confirm a growing understanding that the choice of professional emergency health care services is not made lightly but rather made by reasonable people exercising a judgement which is influenced by public awareness of the risks of acute health and which is most often informed by health professionals. It is also made on the basis of a rational weighing up of alternatives and a deliberate and considered choice to seek assistance from a service which the patient perceived was most appropriate to their needs at that time. These findings add weight to dispensing with public perceptions that ED and ambulance congestion is a result of inappropriate choice by patients. The challenge for health services is to better understand the patient’s needs and to design and validate services that meet those needs. The failure of our health system to do so should not be grounds for blaming the patient, claiming inappropriate patient choices.

Educating for digital futures : what the learning strategies of digital content professionals can teach higher education

Beginning in the second half of the 20th century, ICTs transformed many societies from industrial societies in which manufacturing was the central focus, into knowledge societies in which dealing effectively with data and information has become a central element of work (Anderson, 2008). To meet the needs of the knowledge society, universities must reinvent their structures and processes, their curricula and pedagogic practices. In addition to this, of course higher education is itself subject to the sweeping influence of ICTs. But what might effective higher education look like in the 21st century? In designing higher education systems and learning experiences which are responsive to the learning needs of the future and exploit the possibilities offered by ICTs, we can learn much from the existing professional development strategies of people who are already successful in 21st century fields, such as digital media. In this study, I ask: (1) what are the learning challenges faced by digital media professionals in the 21st century? (2) what are the various roles of formal and informal education in their professional learning strategies at present? (3) how do they prefer to acquire needed capabilities? In-depth interviews were undertaken with successful Australian digital media professionals working in micro businesses and SMEs to answer these questions. The strongest thematic grouping that emerged from the interviews related to the need for continual learning and relearning because of the sheer rate of change in the digital media industries. Four dialectical relationships became apparent from the interviewees’ commentaries around the learning imperatives arising out of the immense and continual changes occurring in the digital content industries: (1) currency vs best practice (2) diversification vs specialisation of products and services (3) creative outputs vs commercial outcomes (4) more learning opportunities vs less opportunity to learn. These findings point to the importance of ‘learning how to learn’ as a 21st century capability. The interviewees were ambivalent about university courses as preparation for professional life in their fields. Higher education was described by several interviewees as having relatively little value-add beyond what one described as “really expensive credentialling services.” For all interviewees in this study, informal learning strategies were the preferred methods of acquiring the majority of knowledge and skills, both for ongoing and initial professional development. Informal learning has no ‘curriculum’ per se, and tends to be opportunistic, unstructured, pedagogically agile and far more self-directed than formal learning (Eraut, 2004). In an industry impacted by constant change, informal learning is clearly both essential and ubiquitous. Inspired by the professional development strategies of the digital media professionals in this study, I propose a 21st century model of the university as a broad, open learning ecology, which also includes industry, professionals, users, and university researchers. If created and managed appropriately, the university learning network becomes the conduit and knowledge integrator for the latest research and industry trends, which students and professionals alike can access as needed.

Factors influencing health professionals' response to victims of domestic violence

This thesis examined factors influencing health professional's response to victims of domestic violence in Vietnam. As this is the first time that this type of research has been conducted in Vietnam, it was expected that the results would contribute significantly to local knowledge and should add to global perspectives. Since it is the first questionnaire about this topic to be developed in Vietnam, the psychometric property of the questionnaire was primarily established, resulting in the questionnaire being recommended to use for further study. By explaining the factors that affect the intentions to respond of health workers, this project provides key data for authorities to design intervention strategies to improve the responses of health professionals to victims of domestic violence in Vietnam.

Carbonic anhydrase IX expression, a novel surrogate marker of tumor hypoxia, is associated with a poor prognosis in non-small-cell lung cancer

Purpose To evaluate carbonic anhydrase (CA) IX as a surrogate marker of hypoxia and investigate the prognostic significance of different patterns of expression in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods Standard immunohistochemical techniques were used to study CA IX expression in 175 resected NSCLC tumors. CA IX expression was determined by Western blotting in A549 cell lines grown under normoxic and hypoxic conditions. Measurements from microvessels to CA IX positivity were obtained. Results CA IX immunostaining was detected in 81.8% of patients. Membranous (m) (P = .005), cytoplasmic (c) (P = .018), and stromal (P < .001) CA IX expression correlated with the extent of tumor necrosis (TN). The mean distance from vascular endothelium to the start of tumor cell positivity was 90 μm, which equates to an oxygen pressure of 5.77 mmHg. The distance to blood vessels from individual tumor cells or tumor cell clusters was greater if they expressed mCA IX than if they did not (P < .001). Hypoxic exposure of A549 cells for 16 hours enhanced CAIX expression in the nuclear and cytosolic extracts. Perinuclear (p) CA IX (P = .035) was associated with a poor prognosis. In multivariate analysis, pCA IX (P = .004), stage (P = .001), platelet count (P = .011), sex (P = .027), and TN (P = .035) were independent poor prognostic factors. Conclusion These results add weight to the contention that mCA IX is a marker of tumor cell hypoxia. The absence of CA IX staining close to microvessels suggests that these vessels are functionally active. pCA IX expression is representative of an aggressive phenotype. © 2003 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Interactions between hypoxia and epidermal growth factor receptor in non-small-cell-lung cancer

Tumor hypoxia has been recognized to confer resistance to anticancer therapy since the early 20th century. More recently, its fundamental role in tumorigenesis has been established. Hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF)-1 has been identified as an important transcription factor that mediates the cellular response to hypoxia, promoting both cellular survival and apoptosis under different conditions. Increased tumor cell expression of this transcription factor promotes tumor growth In vivo and is associated with a worse prognosis in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) undergoing tumor resection. The epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) promotes tumor cell proliferation and anglogenesis and inhibits apoptosis. Epidermal growth factor receptor expression increases in a stepwise manner during tumorigenesis and is overexpressed in > 50% of NSCLC tumors. This review discusses the reciprocal relationship between tumor cell hypoxia and EGFR. Recent studies suggest that hypoxia induces expression of EGFR and its ligands. In return, EGFR might enhance the cellular response to hypoxia by increasing expression of HIF-1α, and so act as a survival factor for hypoxic cancer cells. Immunohistochemical studies on a series of resected NSCLC tumors add weight to this contention by demonstrating a close association between expression of EGFR, HIF-1α, and:1 of HIF-1's target proteins, carbonic anhydrase IX. In this article we discuss emerging treatment strategies for NSCLC that target HIF-1, HIF-1 transcriptional targets, and EGFR.

Inferring diffusion in single live cells at the single-molecule level

The movement of molecules inside living cells is a fundamental feature of biological processes. The ability to both observe and analyse the details of molecular diffusion in vivo at the single-molecule and single-cell level can add significant insight into understanding molecular architectures of diffus- ing molecules and the nanoscale environment in which the molecules diffuse. The tool of choice for monitoring dynamic molecular localization in live cells is fluorescence microscopy, especially so combining total internal reflection fluorescence with the use of fluorescent protein (FP) reporters in offering exceptional imaging contrast for dynamic processes in the cell mem- brane under relatively physiological conditions compared with competing single-molecule techniques. There exist several different complex modes of diffusion, and discriminating these from each other is challenging at the mol- ecular level owing to underlying stochastic behaviour. Analysis is traditionally performed using mean square displacements of tracked particles; however, this generally requires more data points than is typical for single FP tracks owing to photophysical instability. Presented here is a novel approach allowing robust Bayesian ranking of diffusion processes to dis-criminate multiple complex modes probabilistically. It is a computational approach that biologists can use to understand single-molecule features in live cells.

Physical activity and health-related quality of life among physiotherapists : a cross sectional survey in an Australian hospital and health service

Background Physiotherapists are a professional group with a high rate of attrition and at high risk of musculoskeletal disorders. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the physical activity levels and health-related quality of life of physiotherapists working in metropolitan clinical settings in an Australian hospital and health service. It was hypothesized that practicing physiotherapists would report excellent health-related quality of life and would already be physically active. Such a finding would add weight to a claim that general physical activity conditioning strategies may not be useful for preventing musculoskeletal disorders among active healthy physiotherapists, but rather, future investigations should focus on the development and evaluation of role specific conditioning strategies. Methods A questionnaire was completed by 44 physiotherapists from three inpatient units and three ambulatory clinics (63.7% response rate). Physical activity levels were reported using the Active Australia Survey. Health-related quality of life was examined using the EQ-5D instrument. Physical activity and EQ-5D data were examined using conventional descriptive statistics; with domain responses for the EQ-5D presented in a frequency histogram. Results The majority of physiotherapists in this sample were younger than 30 years of age (n = 25, 56.8%) consistent with the presence of a high attrition rate. Almost all respondents exceeded minimum recommended physical activity guidelines (n = 40, 90.9%). Overall the respondents engaged in more vigorous physical activity (median = 180 minutes) and walking (median = 135 minutes) than moderate exercise (median = 35 minutes) each week. Thirty-seven (84.1%) participants reported no pain or discomfort impacting their health-related quality of life, with most (n = 35,79.5%) being in full health. Conclusions Physical-conditioning based interventions for the prevention of musculoskeletal disorders among practicing physiotherapists may be better targeted to role or task specific conditioning rather than general physical conditioning among this physically active population. It is plausible that an inherent attrition of physiotherapists may occur among those not as active or healthy as therapists who cope with the physical demands of clinical practice. Extrapolation of findings from this study may be limited due to the sample characteristics. However, this investigation addressed the study objectives and has provided a foundation for larger scale longitudinal investigations in this field.

Power profiles of multifocal contact lenses and their interpretation

Purpose Many contact lens (CL) manufacturers produce simultaneous-image lenses in which power varies either smoothly or discontinuously with zonal radius. We present in vitro measurements of some recent CLs and discuss how power profiles might be approximated in terms of nominal distance corrections, near additions, and on-eye visual performance. Methods Fully hydrated soft, simultaneous-image CLs from four manufacturers (Air Optix AQUA, Alcon; PureVision multifocal, Bausch & Lomb; Acuvue OASYS for Presbyopia, Vistakon; Biofinity multifocal- ‘‘D’’ design, Cooper Vision) were measured with a Phase focus Lens Profiler (Phase Focus Ltd., Sheffield,UK) in a wet cell and powerswere corrected to powers in air. All lenses had zero labeled power for distance. Results Sagittal power profiles revealed that the ‘‘low’’ add PureVision and Air Optix lenses exhibit smooth (parabolic) profiles, corresponding to negative spherical aberration. The ‘‘mid’’ and ‘‘high’’ add PureVision and Air Optix lenses have biaspheric designs, leading to different rates of power change for the central and peripheral portions. All OASYS lenses display a series of concentric zones, separated by abrupt discontinuities; individual profiles can be constrained between two parabolically decreasing curves, each giving a valid description of the power changes over alternate annular zones. Biofinity lenses have constant power over the central circular region of radius 1.5 mm, followed by an annular zone where the power increases approximately linearly, the gradient increasing with the add power, and finally an outer zone showing a slow, linear increase in power with a gradient being almost independent of the add power. Conclusions The variation in power across the simultaneous-image lenses produces enhanced depth of focus. The throughfocusnature of the image, which influences the ‘‘best focus’’ (distance correction) and the reading addition, will vary with several factors, including lens centration, the wearer’s pupil diameter, and ocular aberrations, particularly spherical aberration; visual performance with some designs may show greater sensitivity to these factors.

Establishing sustainable and reliable smart grids

This paper addresses challenges part of the shift of paradigm taking place in the way we produce, transmit and use power related to what is known as smart grids. The aim of this paper is to explore present initiatives to establish smart grids as a sustainable and reliable power supply system. We argue that smart grids are not isolated to abstract conceptual models alone. We suggest that establishing sustainable and reliable smart grids depend on series of contributions including modeling and simulation projects, technological infrastructure pilots, systemic methods and training, and not least how these and other elements must interact to add reality to the conceptual models. We present and discuss three initiatives that illuminate smart grids from three very different positions. First, the new power grid simulator project in the electrical engineering PhD program at Queensland University of Technology (QUT). Second, the new smart grids infrastructure pilot run by the Norwegian Centers of Expertise Smart Energy Markets (NCE SMART). And third, the new systemic Master program on next generation energy technology at østfold University College (Hiø). These initiatives represent future threads in a mesh embedding smart grids in models, technology, infrastructure, education, skills and people.

Harm, responsibility, age and consent

This article explores the contradictory ways in which adolescents just under the age of consent are represented in illegal sexual relations with both men and women who are over the age of consent. We are specifically interested in the ways in which the gender of the adolescent and the adult affect public perceptions, legal responses and perceptions of harm of sexual relations. We argue that the development of an indiscriminate legal and policy narrative of child abuse which increasingly includes all aspects of adolescent sexuality, ‘erases’ adolescent subjectivity. By exploring the nuanced ways in which the historical construction of childhood as sexually innocent intersects with current cultural scripts of femininity and masculinity, this article hopes to add to the small but growing literature on the issue of sexual consent, sexual ethics and sexual citizenship for young people.