Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space–time SIR-based model

Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.

Quality of life after early enteral feeding versus standard care for proven or suspected advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: Results from a randomised trial

Background Malnutrition is common in patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), and is associated with impaired quality of life (QoL), longer hospital stay and higher risk of treatment-related adverse events. This phase III multi-centre randomised clinical trial tested early enteral feeding versus standard care on postoperative QoL. Methods From 2009 to 2013, 109 patients requiring surgery for suspected advanced EOC, moderately to severely malnourished were enrolled at five sites across Queensland and randomised to intervention (n = 53) or control (n = 56) groups. Intervention involved intraoperative nasojejunal tube placement and enteral feeding until adequate oral intake could be maintained. Despite being randomised to intervention, 20 patients did not receive feeds (13 did not receive the feeding tube; 7 had it removed early). Control involved postoperative diet as tolerated. QoL was measured at baseline, 6 weeks postoperatively and 30 days after the third cycle of chemotherapy. The primary outcome measure was the difference in QoL between the intervention and the control group. Secondary endpoints included treatment-related adverse event occurrence, length of stay, postoperative services use, and nutritional status. Results Baseline characteristics were comparable between treatment groups. No significant difference in QoL was found between the groups at any time point. There was a trend towards better nutritional status in patients who received the intervention but the differences did not reach statistical significance except for the intention-to-treat analysis at 7 days postoperatively (11.8 intervention vs. 13.8 control, p 0.04). Conclusion Early enteral feeding did not significantly improve patients' QoL compared to standard of care but may improve nutritional status.

A pilot education on heart failure self-management and introduction of the teach-back method to cardiac nurses in Vietnam

It is recognised that patients with chronic disease are unable to remembercorrectly information provided by health care profesionals. The teach-back method is acknowledgedas a technique to improve patients’ understanding. Yet it is not used in nursing practice in Vietnam. Objectives This study sought to examine knowledge background of heart failure among cardiac nurses, introduce a education about heart failure self-management and the teach-back method to assist teaching patients on self-care. The study also wanted to explore if a short education could benefit nurses’ knowledge so they would be qualified to deliver education to patients. Methods A pre/post-test design was employed. Cardiac nurses from 3 hospitals (Vietnam National Heart Institute, E Hospital, Huu Nghi Hospital) were invited to attend a six-hour educational session which covered both the teach-back method and heart failure self-management. Role-play with scenarios were used to reinforce educational contents. The Dutch Heart Failure Knowledge Scale was used to assess nurses’ knowledge of heart failure at baseline and after the educational session. Results 20 nurses from3 selected hospitals participated. Average age was 34.5±7.9 years and years of nursing experience was 11.6±8.3. Heart failure knowledge score at the baseline was 12.7±1.2 and post education was 13.8±1.0. There was deficiency of nurses knowledge regarding fluid restriction among heart failure people, causes of worsening heart failure. Heart failure knowledge improved significantly following the workshop (p < 0.001). All nurses achieved an overall adequate knowledge score (≥11 of the maximum 15) at the end. 100% of nurses agreed that the teach-back method was effective and could be used to educate patients about heart failure self-management. Conclusions The results of this study have shown the effectiveness of the piloteducaiton in increasing nurses’ knowledge of heart failure. The teach-back method is accepted for Vietnamese nurses to use in routine cardiac practice.

Changes in energy efficiency in Australia: A decomposition of aggregate energy intensity using logarithmic mean Divisia approach

This paper provides an empirical estimation of energy efficiency and other proximate factors that explain energy intensity in Australia for the period 1978-2009. The analysis is performed by decomposing the changes in energy intensity by means of energy efficiency, fuel mix and structural changes using sectoral and sub-sectoral levels of data. The results show that the driving forces behind the decrease in energy intensity in Australia are efficiency effect and sectoral composition effect, where the former is found to be more prominent than the latter. Moreover, the favourable impact of the composition effect has slowed consistently in recent years. A perfect positive association characterizes the relationship between energy intensity and carbon intensity in Australia. The decomposition results indicate that Australia needs to improve energy efficiency further to reduce energy intensity and carbon emissions. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Reducing tariffs according to WTO accession rules: The case of Vietnam

When Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007 it was granted an accession period up to 2014. During this period tariffs would have to fall according to the accession agreement. This paper evaluates this 2007–2014 trade liberalization by building an applied general equilibrium model and calibrating it to the Vietnamese data. The model pays careful attention to the fact that Vietnam has many state-owned enterprises. The model simulations show that the WTO tariff reductions will reduce overall welfare. Moreover, the biggest loss will take place among the poor rural households in Vietnam. This paper proposes other tariff reforms that will both raise overall welfare and reduce income inequality.

A preliminary analysis of Australian Government’s Indigenous reform agenda ‘Closing the Gap’ and corporate accountability

This chapter provides a preliminary analysis of Australian Government’s reform agenda popularly known as ‘Closing the Gap’.” Closing the Gap” sets a commitment by all Australian governments to improve the lives of Indigenous Australians, and in particular provide a better future for indigenous children. This article discusses how the coalition of Australian Governments prepared this agenda and how this program involves Australian corporations in this task. Our observations suggest that another reform is required for the government to mandate corporate involvement and contribution to this reform agenda.

Deregulation of miR-126 expression in colorectal cancer pathogenesis and its clinical significance

In this study, we investigated the expression profiles and clinicopathological significance of miR-126 in large cohort of patients with colorectal cancers as well the cellular repercussions of miR-126 in colon cancer cells along with its targets in-vitro. Down regulation of miR-126 expression was associated with histological subtypes, peri-neural tumour infiltration, microsatellite instability and pathological staging of colorectal cancers (p<0.05). Low miR-126 expression was also associated with poorer survival in patients with colorectal cancer. Analysis of matched tissues from the same patient revealed that approximately 70% of the tested patients had similar levels of expression of miR-126 in primary cancer and cancer metastases in both lymph node and distant metastases. In addition, induced overexpression of miR-126 showed reduced cell proliferation, increased apoptosis and decreased accumulation of cells in the G0-G1 phase of the colon cancer cells. Furthermore, SW480(+miR-126) cells showed reduced BCL-2 and increased P53 protein expression. To conclude, deregulation of miR-126 in colorectal cancer at the tissue and cellular levels as well as its correlation with various clinicopathological parameters confirm the cancer suppressive role of miR-126 in colorectal cancer.

Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.