Using internet search queries for infectious disease surveillance: screening diseases for suitability

Background Internet-based surveillance systems provide a novel approach to monitoring infectious diseases. Surveillance systems built on internet data are economically, logistically and epidemiologically appealing and have shown significant promise. The potential for these systems has increased with increased internet availability and shifts in health-related information seeking behaviour. This approach to monitoring infectious diseases has, however, only been applied to single or small groups of select diseases. This study aims to systematically investigate the potential for developing surveillance and early warning systems using internet search data, for a wide range of infectious diseases. Methods Official notifications for 64 infectious diseases in Australia were downloaded and correlated with frequencies for 164 internet search terms for the period 2009–13 using Spearman’s rank correlations. Time series cross correlations were performed to assess the potential for search terms to be used in construction of early warning systems. Results Notifications for 17 infectious diseases (26.6%) were found to be significantly correlated with a selected search term. The use of internet metrics as a means of surveillance has not previously been described for 12 (70.6%) of these diseases. The majority of diseases identified were vaccine-preventable, vector-borne or sexually transmissible; cross correlations, however, indicated that vector-borne and vaccine preventable diseases are best suited for development of early warning systems. Conclusions The findings of this study suggest that internet-based surveillance systems have broader applicability to monitoring infectious diseases than has previously been recognised. Furthermore, internet-based surveillance systems have a potential role in forecasting emerging infectious disease events, especially for vaccine-preventable and vector-borne diseases

The high price of drug patents: Australia, patent law, pharmaceutical drugs and the Trans-Pacific Partnership

This week, the secrecy surrounding an independent Australian report on patent law and pharmaceutical drugs has been lifted, and the work has been published to great acclaim...

Price and trade: World no tobacco day 2015

This special issue of Tobacco Control for World No Tobacco Day is focused on the theme of Price and Trade.

When the price is not right: Technology price gouging in Australia

Apple Inc. has often portrayed itself as the champion of consumers, with its advertising campaigns on “1984”, “Think Different”, and “Rip, Mix, Burn”. However, this reputation has been called into question after Apple refused to appear before the Parliament’s inquiry into IT Pricing in Australia and explain its pricing policies in Australia.

Infrastructure Disputes Shape Future of Streaming Media

In November 2010, tension between Internet infrastructure companies boiled over in a dispute between content distribution network (CDN) Level 3 and Internet service provider (ISP) Comcast. Level 3, a distribution partner of Netflix, accused Comcast of violating the principles of net neutrality when the ISP increased distribution fees for carrying high bandwidth services. Comcast justified its actions by stating that the price increase was standard practice and argued Level 3 was trying to avoid paying its fair share. The dispute exemplifies the growing concern over the rising costs of streaming media services. The companies facing these inflated infrastructure costs are CDNs (Level 3, Equinix, Limelight, Akamai, and Voxel), companies that host streaming media content on server farms and distribute the content to a variety of carriers, and ISPs (Comcast, Time Warner, Cox, and AT&T), the cable and phone companies that provide “last mile” service to paying customers. Both CDNs and ISPs are lobbying government regulators to keep their costs at a minimum. The outcome of these disputes will influence the cost, quality, and legal status of streaming media.

Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes

Abnormally high price spikes in spot electricity markets represent a significant risk to market participants. As such, a literature has developed that focuses on forecasting the probability of such spike events, moving beyond simply forecasting the level of price. Many univariate time series models have been proposed to dealwith spikes within an individual market region. This paper is the first to develop a multivariate self-exciting point process model for dealing with price spikes across connected regions in the Australian National Electricity Market. The importance of the physical infrastructure connecting the regions on the transmission of spikes is examined. It is found that spikes are transmitted between the regions, and the size of spikes is influenced by the available transmission capacity. It is also found that improved risk estimates are obtained when inter-regional linkages are taken into account.

Methods for constructing uncertainty intervals for queries of Bayesian nets

In this paper the issue of finding uncertainty intervals for queries in a Bayesian Network is reconsidered. The investigation focuses on Bayesian Nets with discrete nodes and finite populations. An earlier asymptotic approach is compared with a simulation-based approach, together with further alternatives, one based on a single sample of the Bayesian Net of a particular finite population size, and another which uses expected population sizes together with exact probabilities. We conclude that a query of a Bayesian Net should be expressed as a probability embedded in an uncertainty interval. Based on an investigation of two Bayesian Net structures, the preferred method is the simulation method. However, both the single sample method and the expected sample size methods may be useful and are simpler to compute. Any method at all is more useful than none, when assessing a Bayesian Net under development, or when drawing conclusions from an ‘expert’ system.

Estimating the parameters of stochastic volatility models using option price data

This article describes a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of the standard square-root stochastic volatility model and a variant of the model that includes jumps in equity prices. The model is fitted to data on the S&P 500 Index and the prices of vanilla options written on the index, for the period 1990 to 2011. The method is able to estimate both the parameters of the physical measure (associated with the index) and the parameters of the risk-neutral measure (associated with the options), including the volatility and jump risk premia. The estimation is implemented using a particle filter whose efficacy is demonstrated under simulation. The computational load of this estimation method, which previously has been prohibitive, is managed by the effective use of parallel computing using graphics processing units (GPUs). The empirical results indicate that the parameters of the models are reliably estimated and consistent with values reported in previous work. In particular, both the volatility risk premium and the jump risk premium are found to be significant.

Fusion transcript loci share many genomic features with non-fusion loci

Background Fusion transcripts are found in many tissues and have the potential to create novel functional products. Here, we investigate the genomic sequences around fusion junctions to better understand the transcriptional mechanisms mediating fusion transcription/splicing. We analyzed data from prostate (cancer) cells as previous studies have shown extensively that these cells readily undergo fusion transcription. Results We used the FusionMap program to identify high-confidence fusion transcripts from RNAseq data. The RNAseq datasets were from our (N = 8) and other (N = 14) clinical prostate tumors with adjacent non-cancer cells, and from the LNCaP prostate cancer cell line that were mock-, androgen- (DHT), and anti-androgen- (bicalutamide, enzalutamide) treated. In total, 185 fusion transcripts were identified from all RNAseq datasets. The majority (76 %) of these fusion transcripts were ‘read-through chimeras’ derived from adjacent genes in the genome. Characterization of sequences at fusion loci were carried out using a combination of the FusionMap program, custom Perl scripts, and the RNAfold program. Our computational analysis indicated that most fusion junctions (76 %) use the consensus GT-AG intron donor-acceptor splice site, and most fusion transcripts (85 %) maintained the open reading frame. We assessed whether parental genes of fusion transcripts have the potential to form complementary base pairing between parental genes which might bring them into physical proximity. Our computational analysis of sequences flanking fusion junctions at parental loci indicate that these loci have a similar propensity as non-fusion loci to hybridize. The abundance of repetitive sequences at fusion and non-fusion loci was also investigated given that SINE repeats are involved in aberrant gene transcription. We found few instances of repetitive sequences at both fusion and non-fusion junctions. Finally, RT-qPCR was performed on RNA from both clinical prostate tumors and adjacent non-cancer cells (N = 7), and LNCaP cells treated as above to validate the expression of seven fusion transcripts and their respective parental genes. We reveal that fusion transcript expression is similar to the expression of parental genes. Conclusions Fusion transcripts maintain the open reading frame, and likely use the same transcriptional machinery as non-fusion transcripts as they share many genomic features at splice/fusion junctions.

Predicting the last brand standing in the supermarket price wars

On January 26, 2011, grocery retailer Coles fired the first salvo in what would soon be dubbed the “supermarket price wars” by reducing the price of its own-brand milk to A$1 per litre. Woolworths immediately responded. In the three years since, grocery prices have been tumbling, with 85 cent bread being the latest “sacrificial lamb”. This period of intense competition has brought about not just lower grocery prices, but a senate enquiry, and increasing media and analyst interest.

Head motion and Inattention/Hyperactivity share common genetic influences: Implications for fMRI studies of ADHD

Head motion (HM) is a well known confound in analyses of functional MRI (fMRI) data. Neuroimaging researchers therefore typically treat HM as a nuisance covariate in their analyses. Even so, it is possible that HM shares a common genetic influence with the trait of interest. Here we investigate the extent to which this relationship is due to shared genetic factors, using HM extracted from resting-state fMRI and maternal and self report measures of Inattention and Hyperactivity-Impulsivity from the Strengths and Weaknesses of ADHD Symptoms and Normal Behaviour (SWAN) scales. Our sample consisted of healthy young adult twins (N = 627 (63% females) including 95 MZ and 144 DZ twin pairs, mean age 22, who had mother-reported SWAN; N = 725 (58% females) including 101 MZ and 156 DZ pairs, mean age 25, with self reported SWAN). This design enabled us to distinguish genetic from environmental factors in the association between head movement and ADHD scales. HM was moderately correlated with maternal reports of Inattention (r = 0.17, p-value = 7.4E-5) and Hyperactivity-Impulsivity (r = 0.16, p-value = 2.9E-4), and these associations were mainly due to pleiotropic genetic factors with genetic correlations [95% CIs] of rg = 0.24 [0.02, 0.43] and rg = 0.23 [0.07, 0.39]. Correlations between self-reports and HM were not significant, due largely to increased measurement error. These results indicate that treating HM as a nuisance covariate in neuroimaging studies of ADHD will likely reduce power to detect between-group effects, as the implicit assumption of independence between HM and Inattention or Hyperactivity-Impulsivity is not warranted. The implications of this finding are problematic for fMRI studies of ADHD, as failing to apply HM correction is known to increase the likelihood of false positives. We discuss two ways to circumvent this problem: censoring the motion contaminated frames of the RS-fMRI scan or explicitly modeling the relationship between HM and Inattention or Hyperactivity-Impulsivity

Food price and affordability update

This presentation outlines recent achievements in development of tools, protocols and methods to monitoring and benchmark food prices and affordability globally under International Network for Food and Obesity/non-communicable diseases Research, Monitoring and Action Support(INFORMAS)

Economics of tourism & growth for small island countries

We theoretically analyze the impact of changes in foreign income from tourism source countries on the growth of tourism dependent small island economies. Using a general theoretical construct, we attempt to answer the question of how price elasticity of demand, income elasticity of tourist and the degree of competition in the service sector influence the economic development of small economies. One of the main results is that politicians may consider applying policies which lead to a competitive environment in the service sector to maximize growth and the consequent labor income share.

Sign and share: What influences our participation in online microvolunteering

Microvolunteering is bite-size volunteering with no commitment to repeat and minimum formality, involving short and specific actions. Online microvolunteering occurs through an internet-connected device. University students' online microvolunteering decisions were investigated using an extended theory of planned behavior (TPB) comprising attitudes and normative and control perceptions, with the additional variables of moral norm and group norm. Participants (N = 303) completed the main TPB questionnaire and 1-month follow-up survey (N = 171) assessing engagement in online microvolunteering. Results generally supported standard and additional TPB constructs predicting intention. Intention predicted behavior. The findings suggest an important role for attitudes and moral considerations in understanding what influences this increasingly popular form of online activity.