Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

Characterising metal build-up on urban road surfaces

Reliable approaches for predicting pollutant build-up are essential for accurate urban stormwater quality modelling. Based on the in-depth investigation of metal build-up on residential road surfaces, this paper presents empirical models for predicting metal loads on these surfaces. The study investigated metals commonly present in the urban environment. Analysis undertaken found that the build-up process for metals primarily originating from anthropogenic (copper and zinc) and geogenic (aluminium, calcium, iron and manganese) sources were different. Chromium and nickel were below detection limits. Lead was primarily associated with geogenic sources, but also exhibited a significant relationship with anthropogenic sources. The empirical prediction models developed were validated using an independent data set and found to have relative prediction errors of 12-50%, which is generally acceptable for complex systems such as urban road surfaces. Also, the predicted values were very close to the observed values and well within 95% prediction interval.

Intercalation of kaolins by alkaline earth metal salts

A suite of new materials, based on chemical modification of kaolins, has been successfully prepared via manipulation of the kaolin structure and subsequent intercalation by CaCl2 and MgCl2. A standard kaolinite(KGa-1)and a commercially available halloysite (New Zealand china clay) were used for this study. The kaolins are given several cycles of intercalation and deintercalation using a common intercalant such as potassium acetate. The number of cycles given depends on the type of kaolin. After this treatment, both kaolinite and halloysite hydrate show considerable broadening of the (00l) reflections which indicate extensive exfoliation of the layers. In the case of kaolinite, exfoliated layers roll to form tubes similar to proper halloysite. Kaolins modified by the above treatment readily intercalate MgCl2 and CaCl2 from saturated solutions of these salts. On intercalation with CaCl2 and MgCl2, kaolinite layers expand to 10A and 9.8A, and those of halloysite to 12.8A and 15.5A, respectively. To our knowledge, this is the first report of successful intercalation of alkaline-earth halides by kaolins.

Infrared and Raman spectroscopic characterization of the phosphate mineral kosnarite KZr2(PO4)3 in comparison with other pegmatitic phosphates

In this research, we have used vibrational spectroscopy to study the phosphate mineral kosnarite KZr2(PO4)3. Interest in this mineral rests with the ability of zirconium phosphates (ZP) to lock in radioactive elements. ZP have the capacity to concentrate and immobilize the actinide fraction of radioactive phases in homogeneous zirconium phosphate phases. The Raman spectrum of kosnarite is characterized by a very intense band at 1,026 cm−1 assigned to the symmetric stretching vibration of the PO4 3− ν1 symmetric stretching vibration. The series of bands at 561, 595 and 638 cm−1 are assigned to the ν4 out-of-plane bending modes of the PO4 3− units. The intense band at 437 cm−1 with other bands of lower wavenumber at 387, 405 and 421 cm−1 is assigned to the ν2 in-plane bending modes of the PO4 3− units. The number of bands in the antisymmetric stretching region supports the concept that the symmetry of the phosphate anion in the kosnarite structure is preserved. The width of the infrared spectral profile and its complexity in contrast to the well-resolved Raman spectrum show that the pegmatitic phosphates are better studied with Raman spectroscopy.

First-principles prediction of metal-free magnetism and intrinsic half-metallicity in graphitic carbon nitride

Transition metal-free magnetism and half-metallicity recently has been the subject of intense research activity due to its potential in spintronics application. Here we, for the first time, demonstrate via density functional theory that the most recently experimentally realized graphitic carbon nitride (g-C4N3) displays a ferromagnetic ground state. Furthermore, this novel material is predicted to possess an intrinsic half-metallicity never reported to date. Our results highlight a new promising material toward realistic metal-free spintronics application.

Evaluation of plastic deformation ability of Cu/Ni/W metallic multilayers

Plastic deformation behavior of Cu/Ni/Wmetallicmultilayers with individual layer thickness ranging from 5 nm to 300 nm is investigated by nanoindentation testing. The experimental results reveal that the composite still exhibits indentation-induced plastic deformation instability and the loss of strain hardening ability at the nanometer scale even if the composite contains two kinds of layer interfaces (face centered cubic(FCC)/FCC and FCC/ body centered cubic) simultaneously. Plastic deformation behavior of the nanolayered material was evaluated and analyzed.

Nanoporous Graphitic-C3N4@Carbon Metal-Free Electrocatalysts for Highly Efficient Oxygen Reduction

Based on theoretical prediction, a g-C3N4@carbon metal-free oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) electrocatalyst was designed and synthesized by uniform incorporation of g-C3N4 into a mesoporous carbon to enhance the electron transfer efficiency of g-C3N4. The resulting g-C3N4@carbon composite exhibited competitive catalytic activity (11.3 mA cm–2 kinetic-limiting current density at −0.6 V) and superior methanol tolerance compared to a commercial Pt/C catalyst. Furthermore, it demonstrated significantly higher catalytic efficiency (nearly 100% of four-electron ORR process selectivity) than a Pt/C catalyst. The proposed synthesis route is facile and low-cost, providing a feasible method for the development of highly efficient electrocatalysts.

Binocular rivalry and visuospatial ability in individuals with schizophrenia

Visual abnormalities, both at the sensory input and the higher interpretive levels, have been associated with many of the symptoms of schizophrenia. Individuals with schizophrenia typically experience distortions of sensory perception, resulting in perceptual hallucinations and delusions that are related to the observed visual deficits. Disorganised speech, thinking and behaviour are commonly experienced by sufferers of the disorder, and have also been attributed to perceptual disturbances associated with anomalies in visual processing. Compounding these issues are marked deficits in cognitive functioning that are observed in approximately 80% of those with schizophrenia. Cognitive impairments associated with schizophrenia include: difficulty with concentration and memory (i.e. working, visual and verbal), an impaired ability to process complex information, response inhibition and deficits in speed of processing, visual and verbal learning. Deficits in sustained attention or vigilance, poor executive functioning such as poor reasoning, problem solving, and social cognition, are all influenced by impaired visual processing. These symptoms impact on the internal perceptual world of those with schizophrenia, and hamper their ability to navigate their external environment. Visual processing abnormalities in schizophrenia are likely to worsen personal, social and occupational functioning. Binocular rivalry provides a unique opportunity to investigate the processes involved in visual awareness and visual perception. Binocular rivalry is the alternation of perceptual images that occurs when conflicting visual stimuli are presented to each eye in the same retinal location. The observer perceives the opposing images in an alternating fashion, despite the sensory input to each eye remaining constant. Binocular rivalry tasks have been developed to investigate specific parts of the visual system. The research presented in this Thesis provides an explorative investigation into binocular rivalry in schizophrenia, using the method of Pettigrew and Miller (1998) and comparing individuals with schizophrenia to healthy controls. This method allows manipulations to the spatial and temporal frequency, luminance contrast and chromaticity of the visual stimuli. Manipulations to the rival stimuli affect the rate of binocular rivalry alternations and the time spent perceiving each image (dominance duration). Binocular rivalry rate and dominance durations provide useful measures to investigate aspects of visual neural processing that lead to the perceptual disturbances and cognitive dysfunction attributed to schizophrenia. However, despite this promise the binocular rivalry phenomenon has not been extensively explored in schizophrenia to date. Following a review of the literature, the research in this Thesis examined individual variation in binocular rivalry. The initial study (Chapter 2) explored the effect of systematically altering the properties of the stimuli (i.e. spatial and temporal frequency, luminance contrast and chromaticity) on binocular rivalry rate and dominance durations in healthy individuals (n=20). The findings showed that altering the stimuli with respect to temporal frequency and luminance contrast significantly affected rate. This is significant as processing of temporal frequency and luminance contrast have consistently been demonstrated to be abnormal in schizophrenia. The current research then explored binocular rivalry in schizophrenia. The primary research question was, "Are binocular rivalry rates and dominance durations recorded in participants with schizophrenia different to those of the controls?" In this second study binocular rivalry data that were collected using low- and highstrength binocular rivalry were compared to alternations recorded during a monocular rivalry task, the Necker Cube task to replicate and advance the work of Miller et al., (2003). Participants with schizophrenia (n=20) recorded fewer alternations (i.e. slower alternation rates) than control participants (n=20) on both binocular rivalry tasks, however no difference was observed between the groups on the Necker cube task. Magnocellular and parvocellular visual pathways, thought to be abnormal in schizophrenia, were also investigated in binocular rivalry. The binocular rivalry stimuli used in this third study (Chapter 4) were altered to bias the task for one of these two pathways. Participants with schizophrenia recorded slower binocular rivalry rates than controls in both binocular rivalry tasks. Using a ‘within subject design’, binocular rivalry data were compared to data collected from a backwardmasking task widely accepted to bias both these pathways. Based on these data, a model of binocular rivalry, based on the magnocellular and parvocellular pathways that contribute to the dorsal and ventral visual streams, was developed. Binocular rivalry rates were compared with performance on the Benton’s Judgment of Line Orientation task, in individuals with schizophrenia compared to healthy controls (Chapter 5). The Benton’s Judgment of Line Orientation task is widely accepted to be processed within the right cerebral hemisphere, making it an appropriate task to investigate the role of the cerebral hemispheres in binocular rivalry, and to investigate the inter-hemispheric switching hypothesis of binocular rivalry proposed by Pettigrew and Miller (1998, 2003). The data were suggestive of intra-hemispheric rather than an inter-hemispheric visual processing in binocular rivalry. Neurotransmitter involvement in binocular rivalry, backward masking and Judgment of Line Orientation in schizophrenia were investigated using a genetic indicator of dopamine receptor distribution and functioning; the presence of the Taq1 allele of the dopamine D2 receptor (DRD2) receptor gene. This final study (Chapter 6) explored whether the presence of the Taq1 allele of the DRD2 receptor gene, and thus, by inference the distribution of dopamine receptors and dopamine function, accounted for the large individual variation in binocular rivalry. The presence of the Taq1 allele was associated with slower binocular rivalry rates or poorer performance in the backward masking and Judgment of Line Orientation tasks seen in the group with schizophrenia. This Thesis has contributed to what is known about binocular rivalry in schizophrenia. Consistently slower binocular rivalry rates were observed in participants with schizophrenia, indicating abnormally-slow visual processing in this group. These data support previous studies reporting visual processing abnormalities in schizophrenia and suggest that a slow binocular rivalry rate is not a feature specific to bipolar disorder, but may be a feature of disorders with psychotic features generally. The contributions of the magnocellular or dorsal pathways and parvocellular or ventral pathways to binocular rivalry, and therefore to perceptual awareness, were investigated. The data presented supported the view that the magnocellular system initiates perceptual awareness of an image and the parvocellular system maintains the perception of the image, making it available to higher level processing occurring within the cortical hemispheres. Abnormal magnocellular and parvocellular processing may both contribute to perceptual disturbances that ultimately contribute to the cognitive dysfunction associated with schizophrenia. An alternative model of binocular rivalry based on these observations was proposed.

CASNS - A heuristic algorithm for the nesting of irregular-shaped sheet-metal blanks

This article reports on the design and implementation of a computer-aided sheet nesting system (CASNS) for the nesting of two-dimensional irregular-shaped sheet-metal blanks on a given sheet stock or coil stock. The system is designed by considering several constraints of sheet-metal stamping operations, such as bridge width and grain orientation, and design requirements such as maximizing the strength of the part hen subsequent bending is involved, minimization of scrap, and economic justification for'a single or multiple station operation. Through many practical case studies, the system proves its efficiency, effectiveness and usefulness.

CADDS: an automated die design system for sheet-metal blanking

This article reports on the design and implementation of a Computer-Aided Die Design System (CADDS) for sheet-metal blanks. The system is designed by considering several factors, such as the complexity of blank geometry, reduction in scrap material, production requirements, availability of press equipment and standard parts, punch profile complexity, and tool elements manufacturing method. The interaction among these parameters and how they affect designers' decision patterns is described. The system is implemented by interfacing AutoCAD with the higher level languages FORTRAN 77 and AutoLISP. A database of standard die elements is created by parametric programming, which is an enhanced feature of AutoCAD. The greatest advantage achieved by the system is the rapid generation of the most efficient strip and die layouts, including information about the tool configuration.

(Adipato-2O,O')diaqua[bis(pyridin-2-yl-N)amine]cobalt(II) trihydrate

In the monomeric title complex, [Co(C6H8O4)(C10H9N3)(H2O)2]·3H2O, the distorted octahedral CoN2O4 coordination environment comprises two N-atom donors from the bidentate dipyridyldiamine ligand, two O-atom donors from one of the carboxylate groups of the bidentate chelating adipate ligand and two water molecules. In addition, there are three solvent water molecules which are involved in both intra- and inter-unit O-HO hydrogen-bonding interactions, which together with an amine-water N-HO hydrogen bond produce a three-dimensional framework.

Importance of bearing porosity in engineering and natural lubrication

The multilamellar structure of phospholipids, i.e. the surface amorphous layer (SAL) that covers the natural surface of articular cartilage, and hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN) on the surface of metal porous bearings are two prominent examples of the family of layered materials that possess the ability to deliver lamellar lubrication. This chapter presents the friction study that was conducted on the surfaces of cartilage and the metal porous bearing impregnated with oil (first generation) and with oil + h-BN (second generation). The porosity of cartilage is around 75% and those of metal porous bearings were 15–28 wt%. It is concluded that porosity is a critical factor in facilitating the excellent tribological properties of both articular cartilage and the porous metal bearings studied.