Elicitator : a user-friendly, interactive tool to support scenario-based elicitation of expert knowledge

Expert elicitation is the process of determining what expert knowledge is relevant to support a quantitative analysis and then eliciting this information in a form that supports analysis or decision-making. The credibility of the overall analysis, therefore, relies on the credibility of the elicited knowledge. This, in turn, is determined by the rigor of the design and execution of the elicitation methodology, as well as by its clear communication to ensure transparency and repeatability. It is difficult to establish rigor when the elicitation methods are not documented, as often occurs in ecological research. In this chapter, we describe software that can be combined with a well-structured elicitation process to improve the rigor of expert elicitation and documentation of the results

The ecological dynamics of decision-making in sailing

Competitive sailing is characterised by continuous interdependencies of decisions and actions. All actions imply a permanent monitoring of the environmental conditions, such as intensity and direction of the wind, sea characteristics, and the behaviour of the opponent sailors. These constraints on sailors’ behavior are in constant change implying continuous adjustments in sailors’ actions and decisions. Among the different parts of a regatta, tactics and strategy at the start are particularly relevant. Among coaches there is an adage that says that “the start is 50% of a regatta” (Houghton, 1984; Saltonstall, 1983/1986). Olympic sailing regattas are performed with boats of the same class, by one, two or three sailors, depending on the boat class. Normally before the start, sailors visit the racing venue and analyse wind and sea characteristics, in order to fine- tune their boats accordingly. Then, five minutes before the start, sailors initiate starting procedures in order to be in a favourable position at the starting line (at the “second zero”). This position is selected during the start period according to wind shifts tendencies and the actions of other boats (Figure 11.1). Only after the start signal can the boats cross the imaginary starting line between the race committee signal boat “A” and the pin end boat. The start takes place against the wind (upwind), and the boats start racing in the direction of mark 1. Based on the evaluation of the sea and wind characteristics (e.g. if the wind is stronger at a particular place on the course), sailors re- adjust their strategy for the regatta. This strategy may change during the regatta, according to wind changes and adversary actions. More to the point, strategic decisions constrain and are constrained by on- line decisions during the regatta.

Variables governing the dynamics of attacker-defender systems in team sport

This project was a step forward in the examination and identification of key variables on the perception, decision making and action of team sport athletes through theoretical insights provided by the ecological dynamics perspective. The methodology drew on experiential knowledge of elite coaches to drive further empirical investigation into the specific task, environmental and personal constraints that shape the behaviour of athletes in specific performance contexts. The thesis has provided an effective rationale for further investigation into the emergent perception, decision making and action demanded of athletes in these unpredictable, fluent, fast-paced environments.

Dynamics of railway wagons subjected to braking torques on defective tracks

It is well known that track defects cause profound effects to the dynamics of railway wagons; normally such problems are examined for cases of wagons running at a constant speed. Brake/traction torques affect the speed profile due to the wheel–rail contact characteristics but most of the wagon–track interaction models do not explicitly consider them in simulation. The authors have recently published a model for the dynamics of wagons subject to braking traction torques on a perfect track by explicitly considering the pitch degree of freedom for wheelsets. The model is extended for cases of lateral and vertical track geometry defects and worn railhead and wheel profiles. This paper presents the results of the analyses carried out using the model extended to the dynamics of wagons containing less ideal wheel profiles running on tracks with geometry defects and worn rails.

Doorway to research : Issues in the development of an interactive website for international graduate students

This paper describes results of a study evaluating the content, functionality and design features of an innovative online website called the Doorway to Research (http://rsc.acid.net.au/Main.aspx) , which was developed to support international graduate students studying at universities in Australia. First, the key features of the website are described. Second, the result of a pilot study involving 12 students and faculty members who tested key aspects of the design, content and functionality of the website and provided written and oral feedback base on task-based questions and focus group discussions are explored. Finally, recommendations for future development are presented. Results of the study indicate general student satisfaction with the website and its design, content and functionality, with specific areas identified for further development.

Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Dynamics of attacker–defender dyads in Association Football : parameters influencing decision-making

Previous work on pattern-forming dynamics of team sports has investigated sub-phases of basketball and rugby union by focussing on one-versus-one (1v1) attacker-defender dyads. This body of work has identified the role of candidate control parameters, interpersonal distance and relative velocity, in predicting the outcomes of team player interactions. These two control parameters have been described as functioning in a nested relationship where relative velocity between players comes to the fore within a critical range of interpersonal distance. The critical influence of constraints on the intentionality of player behaviour has also been identified through the study of 1v1 attacker-defender dyads. This thesis draws from previous work adopting an ecological dynamics approach, which encompasses both Dynamical Systems Theory and Ecological Psychology concepts, to describe attacker-defender interactions in 1v1 dyads in association football. Twelve male youth association football players (average age 15.3 ± 0.5 yrs) performed as both attackers and defenders in 1v1 dyads in three field positions in an experimental manipulation of the proximity to goal and the role of players. Player and ball motion was tracked using TACTO 8.0 software (Fernandes & Caixinha, 2003) to produce two-dimensional (2D) trajectories of players and the ball on the ground. Significant differences were found for player-to-ball interactions depending on proximity to goal manipulations, indicating how key reference points in the environment such as the location of the goal may act as a constraint that shapes decision-making behaviour. Results also revealed that interpersonal distance and relative velocity alone were insufficient for accurately predicting the outcome of a dyad in association football. Instead, combined values of interpersonal distance, ball-to-defender distance, attacker-to-ball distance, attacker-to-ball relative velocity and relative angles were found to indicate the state of dyad outcomes.

Learning object dynamics for smooth tracking of moving lip contours

A new technique is proposed for learning the dynamic characteristics of a deformable object, applied in particular to the problem of lip-tracking. Experimental results are given which demonstrate that the use of dynamic models allows the system to track more robustly under adverse conditions and to correct spurious, poorly tracked frames

Visceral hedonic rhetoric : exploring the design of interactive products

Blurb: This empirical study analysed consumer emotional responses towards interactive products, specifically looking at properties that persuasively induce the pursuit of pleasure at an instinctual level of cognition, now known as ‘visceral hedonic rhetoric'. By analysing three different types of interactive products results found hierarchical and inter-relatable attributes with the potential to provide a positive consumer-product relationship that is more meaningful, less disposable and more sustainable in the future.