135 resultados para hybrid prediction method
Resumo:
A hybrid nano-urchin structure consisting of spherical onion-like carbon and MnO2 nanosheets is synthesized by a facile and environmentally-friendly hydrothermal method. Lithium-ion batteries incorporating the hybrid nano-urchin anode exhibit reversible lithium storage with superior specific capacity, enhanced rate capability, stable cycling performance, and nearly 100% Coulombic efficiency. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of designing hybrid nano-architectures with uniform and isotropic structure, high loading of electrochemically-active materials, and good conductivity for the dramatic improvement of lithium storage.
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This project recognized lack of data analysis and travel time prediction on arterials as the main gap in the current literature. For this purpose it first investigated reliability of data gathered by Bluetooth technology as a new cost effective method for data collection on arterial roads. Then by considering the similarity among varieties of daily travel time on different arterial routes, created a SARIMA model to predict future travel time values. Based on this research outcome, the created model can be applied for online short term travel time prediction in future.
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Outdoor robots such as planetary rovers must be able to navigate safely and reliably in order to successfully perform missions in remote or hostile environments. Mobility prediction is critical to achieving this goal due to the inherent control uncertainty faced by robots traversing natural terrain. We propose a novel algorithm for stochastic mobility prediction based on multi-output Gaussian process regression. Our algorithm considers the correlation between heading and distance uncertainty and provides a predictive model that can easily be exploited by motion planning algorithms. We evaluate our method experimentally and report results from over 30 trials in a Mars-analogue environment that demonstrate the effectiveness of our method and illustrate the importance of mobility prediction in navigating challenging terrain.
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Battery-supercapacitor hybrid energy storage systems are becoming popular in the renewable energy sector due to their improved power and energy performances. These hybrid systems require separate dc-dc converters, or at least one dc-dc converter for the supercapacitor bank, to connect them to the dc-link of the grid interfacing inverter. These additional dc-dc converters increase power losses, complexity and cost. Therefore, possibility of their direct connection is investigated in this paper. The inverter system used in this study is formed by cascading two 3-level inverters, named as the “main inverter” and the “auxiliary inverter”, through a coupling transformer. In the test system the main inverter is connected with the rectified output of a wind generator while the auxiliary inverter is directly attached to a battery and a supercapacitor bank. The major issues with this approach are the dynamic changes in dc-link voltages and inevitable imbalances in the auxiliary inverter voltages, which results in unevenly distributed space vectors. A modified SVM technique is proposed to solve this issue. A PWM based time sharing method is proposed for power sharing between the battery and the supercapacitor. Simulation results are presented to verify the efficacy of the proposed modulation and control techniques.
Resumo:
The axial coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) of various carbon nanotubes (CNTs), i.e., single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs), and some multi-wall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs), were predicted using molecular dynamics (MDs) simulations. The effects of two parameters, i.e., temperature and the CNT diameter, on CTE were investigated extensively. For all SWCNTs and MWCNTs, the obtained results clearly revealed that within a wide low temperature range, their axial CTEs are negative. As the diameter of CNTs decreases, this temperature range for negative axial CTEs becomes narrow, and positive axial CTEs appear in high temperature range. It was found that the axial CTEs vary nonlinearly with the temperature, however, they decrease linearly as the CNT diameter increases. Moreover, within a wide temperature range, a set of empirical formulations was proposed for evaluating the axial CTEs of armchair and zigzag SWCNTs using the above two parameters. Finally, it was found that the absolute value of the negative axial CTE of any MWCNT is much smaller than those of its constituent SWCNTs, and the average value of the CTEs of its constituent SWCNTs. The present fundamental study is very important for understanding the thermal behaviors of CNTs in such as nanocomposite temperature sensors, or nanoelectronics devices using CNTs.
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This paper presents a grid-side inverter based supercapacitor direct integration scheme for wind power systems. The inverter used in this study consists of a conventional two-level inverter and three H-bridge modules. Three supercapacitor banks are directly connected to the dc-links of H-bridge modules. This approach eliminates the need for interfacing dc-dc converters and thus considerably improves the overall efficiency. However, for the maximum utilization of super capacitors their voltages should be allowed to vary. As a result of this variable voltage space vectors of the hybrid inverter get distributed unevenly. To handle this issue, a modified PWM method and a space vector modulation method are proposed and they can generate undistorted current even in the presence of unevenly distributed space vectors. A supercapacitor voltage balancing method is also presented in this paper. Simulation results are presented to validate the efficacy of the proposed scheme, modulation methods and control techniques.
Resumo:
A hybrid energy storage system (HESS) consisting of battery and supercapacitor (SC) is proposed for use in a wind farm in order to achieve power dispatchability. In the designed scheme, the rate of charging/discharging powers of the battery is controlled while the faster wind power transients are diverted to the SC. This enhances the lifetime of the battery. Furthermore, by taking into consideration the random nature of the wind power, a statistical design method is developed to determine the capacities of the HESS needed to achieve specified confidence level in the power dispatch. The proposed approach is useful in the planning of the wind farm-HESS scheme and the coordination of the power flows between the battery and SC.
Resumo:
Battery-supercapacitor hybrid energy storage systems can achieve better power and energy performances compared to their individual use. These hybrid systems require separate dc-dc converters, or at least one dc-dc converter for the supercapacitor bank, to connect them to the dc-link of the grid connecting inverter. However, the use of such dc-dc converters introduces additional cost and power losses. Therefore, the possibility of direct connection of energy storage systems, to the dc-link of a diode clamped 3-level inverter is investigated in this paper. Even though the proposed topology does not use dc-dc converters, a vector selection method is proposed to produce a similar control flexibility that is found in the separate dc-dc converter topology. The major issue with the proposed system is the imminent imbalance of the neutral point potential. A PWM technique with modified carriers is used to solve this problem. Simulations are carried out using MATLAB/SIMULINK to verify the efficacy of the proposed system.
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The work presented in this report is aimed to implement a cost-effective offline mission path planner for aerial inspection tasks of large linear infrastructures. Like most real-world optimisation problems, mission path planning involves a number of objectives which ideally should be minimised simultaneously. Understandably, the objectives of a practical optimisation problem are conflicting each other and the minimisation of one of them necessarily implies the impossibility to minimise the other ones. This leads to the need to find a set of optimal solutions for the problem; once such a set of available options is produced, the mission planning problem is reduced to a decision making problem for the mission specialists, who will choose the solution which best fit the requirements of the mission. The goal of this work is then to develop a Multi-Objective optimisation tool able to provide the mission specialists a set of optimal solutions for the inspection task amongst which the final trajectory will be chosen, given the environment data, the mission requirements and the definition of the objectives to minimise. All the possible optimal solutions of a Multi-Objective optimisation problem are said to form the Pareto-optimal front of the problem. For any of the Pareto-optimal solutions, it is impossible to improve one objective without worsening at least another one. Amongst a set of Pareto-optimal solutions, no solution is absolutely better than another and the final choice must be a trade-off of the objectives of the problem. Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) are recognised to be a convenient method for exploring the Pareto-optimal front of Multi-Objective optimization problems. Their efficiency is due to their parallelism architecture which allows to find several optimal solutions at each time
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Partial shading and rapidly changing irradiance conditions significantly impact on the performance of photovoltaic (PV) systems. These impacts are particularly severe in tropical regions where the climatic conditions result in very large and rapid changes in irradiance. In this paper, a hybrid maximum power point (MPP) tracking (MPPT) technique for PV systems operating under partially shaded conditions witapid irradiance change is proposed. It combines a conventional MPPT and an artificial neural network (ANN)-based MPPT. A low cost method is proposed to predict the global MPP region when expensive irradiance sensors are not available or are not justifiable for cost reasons. It samples the operating point on the stairs of I–V curve and uses a combination of the measured current value at each stair to predict the global MPP region. The conventional MPPT is then used to search within the classified region to get the global MPP. The effectiveness of the proposed MPPT is demonstrated using both simulations and an experimental setup. Experimental comparisons with four existing MPPTs are performed. The results show that the proposed MPPT produces more energy than the other techniques and can effectively track the global MPP with a fast tracking speed under various shading patterns.
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This paper presents a novel framework for the modelling of passenger facilitation in a complex environment. The research is motivated by the challenges in the airport complex system, where there are multiple stakeholders, differing operational objectives and complex interactions and interdependencies between different parts of the airport system. Traditional methods for airport terminal modelling do not explicitly address the need for understanding causal relationships in a dynamic environment. Additionally, existing Bayesian Network (BN) models, which provide a means for capturing causal relationships, only present a static snapshot of a system. A method to integrate a BN complex systems model with stochastic queuing theory is developed based on the properties of the Poisson and exponential distributions. The resultant Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) framework enables the simulation of arbitrary factors, their relationships, and their effects on passenger flow and vice versa. A case study implementation of the framework is demonstrated on the inbound passenger facilitation process at Brisbane International Airport. The predicted outputs of the model, in terms of cumulative passenger flow at intermediary and end points in the inbound process, are found to have an R2 goodness of fit of 0.9994 and 0.9982 respectively over a 10 h test period. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on a number of usage scenarios including causal analysis and ‘what-if’ analysis. This framework provides the ability to analyse and simulate a dynamic complex system, and can be applied to other socio-technical systems such as hospitals.
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Most standard algorithms for prediction with expert advice depend on a parameter called the learning rate. This learning rate needs to be large enough to fit the data well, but small enough to prevent overfitting. For the exponential weights algorithm, a sequence of prior work has established theoretical guarantees for higher and higher data-dependent tunings of the learning rate, which allow for increasingly aggressive learning. But in practice such theoretical tunings often still perform worse (as measured by their regret) than ad hoc tuning with an even higher learning rate. To close the gap between theory and practice we introduce an approach to learn the learning rate. Up to a factor that is at most (poly)logarithmic in the number of experts and the inverse of the learning rate, our method performs as well as if we would know the empirically best learning rate from a large range that includes both conservative small values and values that are much higher than those for which formal guarantees were previously available. Our method employs a grid of learning rates, yet runs in linear time regardless of the size of the grid.
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Nowadays, demand for automated Gas metal arc welding (GMAW) is growing and consequently need for intelligent systems is increased to ensure the accuracy of the procedure. To date, welding pool geometry has been the most used factor in quality assessment of intelligent welding systems. But, it has recently been found that Mahalanobis Distance (MD) not only can be used for this purpose but also is more efficient. In the present paper, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) has been used for prediction of MD parameter. However, advantages and disadvantages of other methods have been discussed. The Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm was found to be the most effective algorithm for GMAW process. It is known that the number of neurons plays an important role in optimal network design. In this work, using trial and error method, it has been found that 30 is the optimal number of neurons. The model has been investigated with different number of layers in Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) architecture and has been shown that for the aim of this work the optimal result is obtained when using MLP with one layer. Robustness of the system has been evaluated by adding noise into the input data and studying the effect of the noise in prediction capability of the network. The experiments for this study were conducted in an automated GMAW setup that was integrated with data acquisition system and prepared in a laboratory for welding of steel plate with 12 mm in thickness. The accuracy of the network was evaluated by Root Mean Squared (RMS) error between the measured and the estimated values. The low error value (about 0.008) reflects the good accuracy of the model. Also the comparison of the predicted results by ANN and the test data set showed very good agreement that reveals the predictive power of the model. Therefore, the ANN model offered in here for GMA welding process can be used effectively for prediction goals.
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Heavy metal pollution of sediments is a growing concern in most parts of the world, and numerous studies focussed on identifying contaminated sediments by using a range of digestion methods and pollution indices to estimate sediment contamination have been described in the literature. The current work provides a critical review of the more commonly used sediment digestion methods and identifies that weak acid digestion is more likely to provide guidance on elements that are likely to be bioavailable than other traditional methods of digestion. This work also reviews common pollution indices and identifies the Nemerow Pollution Index as the most appropriate method for establishing overall sediment quality. Consequently, a modified Pollution Index that can lead to a more reliable understanding of whole sediment quality is proposed. This modified pollution index is then tested against a number of existing studies and demonstrated to give a reliable and rapid estimate of sediment contamination and quality.
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With the extensive use of rating systems in the web, and their significance in decision making process by users, the need for more accurate aggregation methods has emerged. The Naïve aggregation method, using the simple mean, is not adequate anymore in providing accurate reputation scores for items [6 ], hence, several researches where conducted in order to provide more accurate alternative aggregation methods. Most of the current reputation models do not consider the distribution of ratings across the different possible ratings values. In this paper, we propose a novel reputation model, which generates more accurate reputation scores for items by deploying the normal distribution over ratings. Experiments show promising results for our proposed model over state-of-the-art ones on sparse and dense datasets.