Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For example, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously. These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency. ©2006 Society for Conservation Biology.

Costs and benefits of ivory-billed woodpecker re-discovery

Several years ago, the purported re-discovery of the ivory-billed woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) in eastern Arkansas generated lively discussion in renowned scientific journals. The debate concerned both the central question of whether the bird videotaped in April 2004 really was an ivorybilled woodpecker (eg Fitzpatrick et al. 2005; Sibley et al. 2006) and the controversy around the resulting species recovery plan and its costs (McKelvey et al. 2008; Dalton 2010): was $14 million pointlessly spent?

A model-framed evaluation of elephant effects on tree and fire dynamics in African savannas

There is a concern that high densities of elephants in southern Africa could lead to the overall reduction of other forms of biodiversity. We present a grid-based model of elephant-savanna dynamics, which differs from previous elephant-vegetation models by accounting for woody plant demographics, tree-grass interactions, stochastic environmental variables (fire and rainfall), and spatial contagion of fire and tree recruitment. The model projects changes in height structure and spatial pattern of trees over periods of centuries. The vegetation component of the model produces long-term tree-grass coexistence, and the emergent fire frequencies match those reported for southern African savannas. Including elephants in the savanna model had the expected effect of reducing woody plant cover, mainly via increased adult tree mortality, although at an elephant density of 1.0 elephant/km2, woody plants still persisted for over a century. We tested three different scenarios in addition to our default assumptions. (1) Reducing mortality of adult trees after elephant use, mimicking a more browsing-tolerant tree species, mitigated the detrimental effect of elephants on the woody population. (2) Coupling germination success (increased seedling recruitment) to elephant browsing further increased tree persistence, and (3) a faster growing woody component allowed some woody plant persistence for at least a century at a density of 3 elephants/km2. Quantitative models of the kind presented here provide a valuable tool for exploring the consequences of management decisions involving the manipulation of elephant population densities. © 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Optimal allocation of conservation effort among subpopulations of a threatened species: How important is patch quality?

Money is often a limiting factor in conservation, and attempting to conserve endangered species can be costly. Consequently, a framework for optimizing fiscally constrained conservation decisions for a single species is needed. In this paper we find the optimal budget allocation among isolated subpopulations of a threatened species to minimize local extinction probability. We solve the problem using stochastic dynamic programming, derive a useful and simple alternative guideline for allocating funds, and test its performance using forward simulation. The model considers subpopulations that persist in habitat patches of differing quality, which in our model is reflected in different relationships between money invested and extinction risk. We discover that, in most cases, subpopulations that are less efficient to manage should receive more money than those that are more efficient to manage, due to higher investment needed to reduce extinction risk. Our simple investment guideline performs almost as well as the exact optimal strategy. We illustrate our approach with a case study of the management of the Sumatran tiger, Panthera tigris sumatrae, in Kerinci Seblat National Park (KSNP), Indonesia. We find that different budgets should be allocated to the separate tiger subpopulations in KSNP. The subpopulation that is not at risk of extinction does not require any management investment. Based on the combination of risks of extinction and habitat quality, the optimal allocation for these particular tiger subpopulations is an unusual case: subpopulations that occur in higher-quality habitat (more efficient to manage) should receive more funds than the remaining subpopulation that is in lower-quality habitat. Because the yearly budget allocated to the KSNP for tiger conservation is small, to guarantee the persistence of all the subpopulations that are currently under threat we need to prioritize those that are easier to save. When allocating resources among subpopulations of a threatened species, the combined effects of differences in habitat quality, cost of action, and current subpopulation probability of extinction need to be integrated. We provide a useful guideline for allocating resources among isolated subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Effect and process evaluations of an early childhood obesity prevention intervention

The thesis develops a summative evaluation framework of the NOURISH Randomised Controlled Trial, and applies this to a selection of maternal feeding choice outcomes of the programme. The research is based on an ecological model of the complex set of factors that need to be acted upon to address childhood obesity. The novel approach extends the standard RCT effect evaluation, while also conducting an in-depth evaluation of the process of programme development and implementation. Research findings identify adaptations of intervention delivery that could improve its effectiveness and translatability, in a new cycle of the programme.

Genetic variants underlying risk of endometriosis: Insights from meta-analysis of eight genome-wide association and replication datasets

BACKGROUND Endometriosis is a heritable common gynaecological condition influenced by multiple genetic and environmental factors. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have proved successful in identifying common genetic variants of moderate effects for various complex diseases. To date, eight GWAS and replication studies from multiple populations have been published on endometriosis. In this review, we investigate the consistency and heterogeneity of the results across all the studies and their implications for an improved understanding of the aetiology of the condition. METHODS Meta-analyses were conducted on four GWASs and four replication studies including a total of 11 506 cases and 32 678 controls, and on the subset of studies that investigated associations for revised American Fertility Society (rAFS) Stage III/IV including 2859 cases. The datasets included 9039 cases and 27 343 controls of European (Australia, Belgium, Italy, UK, USA) and 2467 cases and 5335 controls of Japanese ancestry. Fixed and Han and Elkin random-effects models, and heterogeneity statistics (Cochran's Q test), were used to investigate the evidence of the nine reported genome-wide significant loci across datasets and populations. RESULTS Meta-analysis showed that seven out of nine loci had consistent directions of effect across studies and populations, and six out of nine remained genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10(-8)), including rs12700667 on 7p15.2 (P = 1.6 × 10(-9)), rs7521902 near WNT4 (P = 1.8 × 10(-15)), rs10859871 near VEZT (P = 4.7 × 10(-15)), rs1537377 near CDKN2B-AS1 (P = 1.5 × 10(-8)), rs7739264 near ID4 (P = 6.2 × 10(-10)) and rs13394619 in GREB1 (P = 4.5 × 10(-8)). In addition to the six loci, two showed borderline genome-wide significant associations with Stage III/IV endometriosis, including rs1250248 in FN1 (P = 8 × 10(-8)) and rs4141819 on 2p14 (P = 9.2 × 10(-8)). Two independent inter-genic loci, rs4141819 and rs6734792 on chromosome 2, showed significant evidence of heterogeneity across datasets (P < 0.005). Eight of the nine loci had stronger effect sizes among Stage III/IV cases, implying that they are likely to be implicated in the development of moderate to severe, or ovarian, disease. While three out of nine loci were inter-genic, the remaining were in or near genes with known functions of biological relevance to endometriosis, varying from roles in developmental pathways to cellular growth/carcinogenesis. CONCLUSIONS Our meta-analysis shows remarkable consistency in endometriosis GWAS results across studies, with little evidence of population-based heterogeneity. They also show that the phenotypic classifications used in GWAS to date have been limited. Stronger associations with Stage III/IV disease observed for most loci emphasize the importance for future studies to include detailed sub-phenotype information. Functional studies in relevant tissues are needed to understand the effect of the variants on downstream biological pathways.

A taste of best practice in engineering sustainable solutions

This paper asks the question to what scale and speed does society need to reduce its ecological footprint and improve resource productivity to prevent further overshoot and return within the ecological limits of the earth’s ecological life support systems? How fast do these changes need to be achieved? The paper shows that now a large range of studies find that engineering sustainable solutions need to be roughly an order or magnitude resource productivity improvement (sometimes called a Factor of 10, or a 90% reduction) by 2050 to achieve real and lasting ecological sustainability. This marks a significant challenge for engineers – indeed all designers and architects, where best practice in engineering sustainable solutions will need to achieve large resource productivity targets. The paper brings together examples of best practice in achieving these large targets from around the world. The paper also highlights key resources and texts for engineers who wish to learn how to do it. But engineers need to be realistic and patient. Significant barriers exist to achieving Factor 4-10 such as the fact that infrastructure and technology rollover and replacement is often slow. This slow rollover of the built environment and technology is the context within which most engineers work, making the goal of achieving Factor 10 all the more challenging. However, the paper demonstrates that by using best practice in engineering sustainable solutions and by addressing the necessary market, information and institutional failures it is possible to achieve Factor 10 over the next 50 years. This paper draws on recent publications by The Natural Edge Project (TNEP) and partners, including Hargroves, K. Smith, M. (Eds) (2005) The Natural Advantage of Nations: Business Opportunities, Innovation and Governance for the 21st Century, and the TNEP Engineering Sustainable Solutions Program - Critical Literacies for Engineers Portfolio. Both projects have the significant support of Engineers Australia. its College of Environmental Engineers and the Society of Sustainability and Environmental Engineering.

What is the available evidence concerning relative performance of different designs of mixed-species plantings for smallholder and community forestry in the tropics? A systematic map protocol

Background There has been growing interest in mixed species plantation systems because of their potential to provide a range of socio-economic and bio-physical benefits which can be matched to the diverse needs of smallholders and communities. Potential benefits include the production of a range of forest products for home and commercial use; improved soil fertility especially when nitrogen fixing species are included; improved survival rates and greater productivity of species; a reduction in the amount of damage from pests or disease; and improved biodiversity and wildlife habitats. Despite these documented services and growing interest in mixed species plantation systems, the actual planting areas in the tropics are low, and monocultures are still preferred for industrial plantings and many reforestation programs because of perceived higher economic returns and readily available information about the species and their silviculture. In contrast, there are few guidelines for the design and management of mixed-species systems, including the social and ecological factors of successful mixed species plantings. Methods This protocol explains the methodology used to investigate the following question: What is the available evidence for the relative performance of different designs of mixed-species plantings for smallholder and community forestry in the tropics? This study will systematically search, identify and describe studies related to mixed species plantings across tropical and temperate zones to identify the social and ecological factors that affect polyculture systems. The objectives of this study are first to identify the evidence of biophysical or socio-economic factors that have been considered when designing mixed species systems for community and smallholder forestry in the tropics; and second, to identify gaps in research of mixed species plantations. Results of the study will help create guidelines that can assist practitioners, scientists and farmers to better design mixed species plantation systems for smallholders in the tropics.

A tensor-based morphometry study of genetic influences on brain structure using a new fluid registration method

We incorporated a new Riemannian fluid registration algorithm into a general MRI analysis method called tensor-based morphometry to map the heritability of brain morphology in MR images from 23 monozygotic and 23 dizygotic twin pairs. All 92 3D scans were fluidly registered to a common template. Voxelwise Jacobian determinants were computed from the deformation fields to assess local volumetric differences across subjects. Heritability maps were computed from the intraclass correlations and their significance was assessed using voxelwise permutation tests. Lobar volume heritability was also studied using the ACE genetic model. The performance of this Riemannian algorithm was compared to a more standard fluid registration algorithm: 3D maps from both registration techniques displayed similar heritability patterns throughout the brain. Power improvements were quantified by comparing the cumulative distribution functions of the p-values generated from both competing methods. The Riemannian algorithm outperformed the standard fluid registration.

The presence of executive deficits in patients with Obstructive Sleep Apnoea

Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) is a chronic condition in which the upper airways collapse repeatedly during sleep, completely or partially obstructing breathing. This obstruction leads to chronic intermittent hypoxia and severe sleep fragmentation, disrupting the restorative functions of sleep. Beebe and Gozal (2002)a developed a theory which hypothesises that disruption of the restorative functions of sleep lead to a chronic low level brain damage most evident in executive functions (EF). Neuropsychological testing of EF, volumetric MRI, magnetic resonance spectroscopy, event related potentials and CSF biomarkers all provide support for this theory. Little research has been done to explore the nature of the subjective complaint and it’s impact on the activities of daily living.

Mathematical modelling of gas production and compositional shift of a CSG (coal seam gas) field: Local model development

In this work we discuss the development of a mathematical model to predict the shift in gas composition observed over time from a producing CSG (coal seam gas) well, and investigate the effect that physical properties of the coal seam have on gas production. A detailed (local) one-dimensional, two-scale mathematical model of a coal seam has been developed. The model describes the competitive adsorption and desorption of three gas species (CH4, CO2 and N2) within a microscopic, porous coal matrix structure. The (diffusive) flux of these gases between the coal matrices (microscale) and a cleat network (macroscale) is accounted for in the model. The cleat network is modelled as a one-dimensional, volume averaged, porous domain that extends radially from a central well. Diffusive and advective transport of the gases occurs within the cleat network, which also contains liquid water that can be advectively transported. The water and gas phases are assumed to be immiscible. The driving force for the advection in the gas and liquid phases is taken to be a pressure gradient with capillarity also accounted for. In addition, the relative permeabilities of the water and gas phases are considered as functions of the degree of water saturation.

Ecologies of housing and underlying assumptions of vulnerability

Purpose This paper is informed by a study that aimed to understand the difficulties in implementing models of housing, and to help address the lack of accessible and affordable private housing for people with disability in Australia. In responding to this aim, the study formulated an ecological map of housing models, which are examined in this paper in terms of their underlying assumptions of vulnerability. Design/methodology/approach The study involved explanation building, using a multiple case study approach, informed theoretically by an ecological framework. It included organisations, families and individuals with disability. Findings For the purpose of this paper, the study revealed a direct relationship between the nature of the housing models proposed, and assumptions of vulnerability. In the context of the study findings, the paper suggests that attempts to address individual housing needs are more likely to achieve a positive outcome when they are person driven, from a premise of ability rather than disability. Overall, it invites a ‘universalistic’ way of conceptualising housing issues for people with disability that has international relevance. Practical implications This paper highlights how assumptions of vulnerability shape environmental responses, such as housing, for people with disability. Originality/value This paper is based on a study that reconciled a person-centred philosophy with an ecological appreciation of the external and internal factors impacting housing choice for people with disability.

The MS risk allele of CD40 is associated with reduced cell-membrane bound expression in antigen presenting cells: Implications for gene function

Human genetic and animal studies have implicated the costimulatory molecule CD40 in the development of multiple sclerosis (MS). We investigated the cell specific gene and protein expression variation controlled by the CD40 genetic variant(s) associated with MS, i.e. the T-allele at rs1883832. Previously we had shown that the risk allele is expressed at a lower level in whole blood, especially in people with MS. Here, we have defined the immune cell subsets responsible for genotype and disease effects on CD40 expression at the mRNA and protein level. In cell subsets in which CD40 is most highly expressed, B lymphocytes and dendritic cells, the MS-associated risk variant is associated with reduced CD40 cell-surface protein expression. In monocytes and dendritic cells, the risk allele additionally reduces the ratio of expression of full-length versus truncated CD40 mRNA, the latter encoding secreted CD40. We additionally show that MS patients, regardless of genotype, express significantly lower levels of CD40 cell-surface protein compared to unaffected controls in B lymphocytes. Thus, both genotype-dependent and independent down-regulation of cell-surface CD40 is a feature of MS. Lower expression of a co-stimulator of T cell activation, CD40, is therefore associated with increased MS risk despite the same CD40 variant being associated with reduced risk of other inflammatory autoimmune diseases. Our results highlight the complexity and likely individuality of autoimmune pathogenesis, and could be consistent with antiviral and/or immunoregulatory functions of CD40 playing an important role in protection from MS. © 2015 Field et al.

Flow evaluation and hemolysis analysis of BVAD centrifugal blood pump by computational fluids dynamics

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and particle image velocimetry (PIV) are commonly used techniques to evaluate the flow characteristics in the development stage of blood pumps. CFD technique allows rapid change to pump parameters to optimize the pump performance without having to construct a costly prototype model. These techniques are used in the construction of a bi-ventricular assist device (BVAD) which combines the functions of LVAD and RVAD in a compact unit. The BVAD construction consists of two separate chambers with similar impellers, volutes, inlet and output sections. To achieve the required flow characteristics of an average flow rate of 5 l/min and different pressure heads (left – 100mmHg and right – 20mmHg), the impellers were set at different rotating speeds. From the CFD results, a six-blade impeller design was adopted for the development of the BVAD. It was also observed that the fluid can flow smoothly through the pump with minimum shear stress and area of stagnation which are related to haemolysis and thrombosis. Based on the compatible Reynolds number the flow through the model was calculated for the left and the right pumps. As it was not possible to have both the left and right chambers in the experimental model, the left and right pumps were tested separately.

Genetic, functional, and histopathological evaluation of two C-terminal BRCA1 missense variants

Background: The vast majority of BRCA1 missense sequence variants remain uncharacterised for their possible effect on protein expression and function, and therefore are unclassified in terms of their pathogenicity. BRCA1 plays diverse cellular roles and it is unlikely that any single functional assay will accurately reflect the total cellular implications of missense mutations in this gene. Objective: To elucidate the effect of two BRCA1 variants, 5236G>C (G1706A) and 5242C>A (A1708E) on BRCA1 function, and to survey the relative usefulness of several assays to direct the characterisation of other unclassified variants in BRCA genes. Methods and Results: Data from a range of bioinformatic, genetic, and histopathological analyses, and in vitro functional assays indicated that the 1708E variant was associated with the disruption of different cellular functions of BRCA1. In transient transfection experiments in T47D and 293T cells, the 1708E product was mislocalised to the cytoplasm and induced centrosome amplification in 293T cells. The 1708E variant also failed to transactivate transcription of reporter constructs in mammalian transcriptional transactivation assays. In contrast, the 1706A variant displayed a phenotype comparable to wildtype BRCA1 in these assays. Consistent with functional data, tumours from 1708E carriers showed typical BRCA1 pathology, while tumour material from 1706A carriers displayed few histopathological features associated with BRCA1 related tumours. Conclusions: A comprehensive range of genetic, bioinformatic, and functional analyses have been combined for the characterisation of BRCA1 unclassified sequence variants. Consistent with the functional analyses, the combined odds of causality calculated for the 1706A variant after multifactorial likelihood analysis (1:142) indicates a definitive classification of this variant as "benign". In contrast, functional assays of the 1708E variant indicate that it is pathogenic, possibly through subcellular mislocalisation. However, the combined odds of 262:1 in favour of causality of this variant does not meet the minimal ratio of 1000:1 for classification as pathogenic, and A1708E remains formally designated as unclassified. Our findings highlight the importance of comprehensive genetic information, together with detailed functional analysis for the definitive categorisation of unclassified sequence variants. This combination of analyses may have direct application to the characterisation of other unclassified variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2.