A hidden Markov model and relative entropy rate approach to vision-based dim target detection for UAV sense-and-avoid

Uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAVs) are a cutting-edge technology that is at the forefront of aviation/aerospace research and development worldwide. Many consider their current military and defence applications as just a token of their enormous potential. Unlocking and fully exploiting this potential will see UAVs in a multitude of civilian applications and routinely operating alongside piloted aircraft. The key to realising the full potential of UAVs lies in addressing a host of regulatory, public relation, and technological challenges never encountered be- fore. Aircraft collision avoidance is considered to be one of the most important issues to be addressed, given its safety critical nature. The collision avoidance problem can be roughly organised into three areas: 1) Sense; 2) Detect; and 3) Avoid. Sensing is concerned with obtaining accurate and reliable information about other aircraft in the air; detection involves identifying potential collision threats based on available information; avoidance deals with the formulation and execution of appropriate manoeuvres to maintain safe separation. This thesis tackles the detection aspect of collision avoidance, via the development of a target detection algorithm that is capable of real-time operation onboard a UAV platform. One of the key challenges of the detection problem is the need to provide early warning. This translates to detecting potential threats whilst they are still far away, when their presence is likely to be obscured and hidden by noise. Another important consideration is the choice of sensors to capture target information, which has implications for the design and practical implementation of the detection algorithm. The main contributions of the thesis are: 1) the proposal of a dim target detection algorithm combining image morphology and hidden Markov model (HMM) filtering approaches; 2) the novel use of relative entropy rate (RER) concepts for HMM filter design; 3) the characterisation of algorithm detection performance based on simulated data as well as real in-flight target image data; and 4) the demonstration of the proposed algorithm's capacity for real-time target detection. We also consider the extension of HMM filtering techniques and the application of RER concepts for target heading angle estimation. In this thesis we propose a computer-vision based detection solution, due to the commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) availability of camera hardware and the hardware's relatively low cost, power, and size requirements. The proposed target detection algorithm adopts a two-stage processing paradigm that begins with an image enhancement pre-processing stage followed by a track-before-detect (TBD) temporal processing stage that has been shown to be effective in dim target detection. We compare the performance of two candidate morphological filters for the image pre-processing stage, and propose a multiple hidden Markov model (MHMM) filter for the TBD temporal processing stage. The role of the morphological pre-processing stage is to exploit the spatial features of potential collision threats, while the MHMM filter serves to exploit the temporal characteristics or dynamics. The problem of optimising our proposed MHMM filter has been examined in detail. Our investigation has produced a novel design process for the MHMM filter that exploits information theory and entropy related concepts. The filter design process is posed as a mini-max optimisation problem based on a joint RER cost criterion. We provide proof that this joint RER cost criterion provides a bound on the conditional mean estimate (CME) performance of our MHMM filter, and this in turn establishes a strong theoretical basis connecting our filter design process to filter performance. Through this connection we can intelligently compare and optimise candidate filter models at the design stage, rather than having to resort to time consuming Monte Carlo simulations to gauge the relative performance of candidate designs. Moreover, the underlying entropy concepts are not constrained to any particular model type. This suggests that the RER concepts established here may be generalised to provide a useful design criterion for multiple model filtering approaches outside the class of HMM filters. In this thesis we also evaluate the performance of our proposed target detection algorithm under realistic operation conditions, and give consideration to the practical deployment of the detection algorithm onboard a UAV platform. Two fixed-wing UAVs were engaged to recreate various collision-course scenarios to capture highly realistic vision (from an onboard camera perspective) of the moments leading up to a collision. Based on this collected data, our proposed detection approach was able to detect targets out to distances ranging from about 400m to 900m. These distances, (with some assumptions about closing speeds and aircraft trajectories) translate to an advanced warning ahead of impact that approaches the 12.5 second response time recommended for human pilots. Furthermore, readily available graphic processing unit (GPU) based hardware is exploited for its parallel computing capabilities to demonstrate the practical feasibility of the proposed target detection algorithm. A prototype hardware-in- the-loop system has been found to be capable of achieving data processing rates sufficient for real-time operation. There is also scope for further improvement in performance through code optimisations. Overall, our proposed image-based target detection algorithm offers UAVs a cost-effective real-time target detection capability that is a step forward in ad- dressing the collision avoidance issue that is currently one of the most significant obstacles preventing widespread civilian applications of uninhabited aircraft. We also highlight that the algorithm development process has led to the discovery of a powerful multiple HMM filtering approach and a novel RER-based multiple filter design process. The utility of our multiple HMM filtering approach and RER concepts, however, extend beyond the target detection problem. This is demonstrated by our application of HMM filters and RER concepts to a heading angle estimation problem.

Towards a game theoretic authorisation model

Authorised users (insiders) are behind the majority of security incidents with high financial impacts. Because authorisation is the process of controlling users’ access to resources, improving authorisation techniques may mitigate the insider threat. Current approaches to authorisation suffer from the assumption that users will (can) not depart from the expected behaviour implicit in the authorisation policy. In reality however, users can and do depart from the canonical behaviour. This paper argues that the conflict of interest between insiders and authorisation mechanisms is analogous to the subset of problems formally studied in the field of game theory. It proposes a game theoretic authorisation model that can ensure users’ potential misuse of a resource is explicitly considered while making an authorisation decision. The resulting authorisation model is dynamic in the sense that its access decisions vary according to the changes in explicit factors that influence the cost of misuse for both the authorisation mechanism and the insider.

A prototype system for the digital lodgement of spatial data

This dissertation develops the model of a prototype system for the digital lodgement of spatial data sets with statutory bodies responsible for the registration and approval of land related actions under the Torrens Title system. Spatial data pertain to the location of geographical entities together with their spatial dimensions and are classified as point, line, area or surface. This dissertation deals with a sub-set of spatial data, land boundary data that result from the activities performed by surveying and mapping organisations for the development of land parcels. The prototype system has been developed, utilising an event-driven paradigm for the user-interface, to exploit the potential of digital spatial data being generated from the utilisation of electronic techniques. The system provides for the creation of a digital model of the cadastral network and dependent data sets for an area of interest from hard copy records. This initial model is calibrated on registered control and updated by field survey to produce an amended model. The field-calibrated model then is electronically validated to ensure it complies with standards of format and content. The prototype system was designed specifically to create a database of land boundary data for subsequent retrieval by land professionals for surveying, mapping and related activities. Data extracted from this database are utilised for subsequent field survey operations without the need to create an initial digital model of an area of interest. Statistical reporting of differences resulting when subsequent initial and calibrated models are compared, replaces the traditional checking operations of spatial data performed by a land registry office. Digital lodgement of survey data is fundamental to the creation of the database of accurate land boundary data. This creation of the database is fundamental also to the efficient integration of accurate spatial data about land being generated by modem technology such as global positioning systems, and remote sensing and imaging, with land boundary information and other information held in Government databases. The prototype system developed provides for the delivery of accurate, digital land boundary data for the land registration process to ensure the continued maintenance of the integrity of the cadastre. Such data should meet also the more general and encompassing requirements of, and prove to be of tangible, longer term benefit to the developing, electronic land information industry.

Modelling photochemical production of fine particulates in a toluene/NOx/water vapour system

This work investigates the computer modelling of the photochemical formation of smog products such as ozone and aerosol, in a system containing toluene, NOx and water vapour. In particular, the problem of modelling this process in the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) smog chambers, which utilize outdoor exposure, is addressed. The primary requirement for such modelling is a knowledge of the photolytic rate coefficients. Photolytic rate coefficients of species other than N02 are often related to JNo2 (rate coefficient for the photolysis ofN02) by a simple factor, but for outdoor chambers, this method is prone to error as the diurnal profiles may not be similar in shape. Three methods for the calculation of diurnal JNo2 are investigated. The most suitable method for incorporation into a general model, is found to be one which determines the photolytic rate coefficients for N02, as well as several other species, from actinic flux, absorption cross section and quantum yields. A computer model was developed, based on this method, to calculate in-chamber photolysis rate coefficients for the CSIRO smog chambers, in which ex-chamber rate coefficients are adjusted by accounting for variation in light intensity by transmittance through the Teflon walls, albedo from the chamber floor and radiation attenuation due to clouds. The photochemical formation of secondary aerosol is investigated in a series of toluene-NOx experiments, which were performed in the CSIRO smog chambers. Three stages of aerosol formation, in plots of total particulate volume versus time, are identified: a delay period in which no significant mass of aerosol is formed, a regime of rapid aerosol formation (regime 1) and a second regime of slowed aerosol formation (regime 2). Two models are presented which were developed from the experimental data. One model is empirically based on observations of discrete stages of aerosol formation and readily allows aerosol growth profiles to be calculated. The second model is based on an adaptation of published toluene photooxidation mechanisms and provides some chemical information about the oxidation products. Both models compare favorably against the experimental data. The gross effects of precursor concentrations (toluene, NOx and H20) and ambient conditions (temperature, photolysis rate) on the formation of secondary aerosol are also investigated, primarily using the mechanism model. An increase in [NOx]o results in increased delay time, rate of aerosol formation in regime 1 and volume of aerosol formed in regime 1. This is due to increased formation of dinitrocresol and furanone products. An increase in toluene results in a decrease in the delay time and an increase in the rate of aerosol formation in regime 1, due to enhanced reactivity from the toluene products, such as the radicals from the photolysis of benzaldehyde. Water vapor has very little effect on the formation of aerosol volume, except that rates are slightly increased due to more OH radicals from reaction with 0(1D) from ozone photolysis. Increased temperature results in increased volume of aerosol formed in regime 1 (increased dinitrocresol formation), while increased photolysis rate results in increased rate of aerosol formation in regime 1. Both the rate and volume of aerosol formed in regime 2 are increased by increased temperature or photolysis rate. Both models indicate that the yield of secondary particulates from hydrocarbons (mass concentration aerosol formed/mass concentration hydrocarbon precursor) is proportional to the ratio [NOx]0/[hydrocarbon]0

Torsional Interaction Studies on a Power System Compensated by SSSC and Fixed Capacitor

In this paper, a static synchronous series compensator (SSSC), along with a fixed capacitor, is used to avoid torsional mode instability in a series compensated transmission system. A 48-step harmonic neutralized inverter is used for the realization of the SSSC. The system under consideration is the IEEE first benchmark model on SSR analysis. The system stability is studied both through eigenvalue analysis and EMTDC/PSCAD simulation studies. It is shown that the combination of the SSSC and the fixed capacitor improves the synchronizing power coefficient. The presence of the fixed capacitor ensures increased damping of small signal oscillations. At higher levels of fixed capacitor compensation, a damping controller is required to stabilize the torsional modes of SSR.

Repair of calvarial defects with customized tissue-engineered bone grafts - I. Evaluation of osteogenesis in a three-dimensional culture system

Bone generation by autogenous cell transplantation in combination with a biodegradable scaffold is one of the most promising techniques being developed in craniofacial surgery. The objective of this combined in vitro and in vivo study was to evaluate the morphology and osteogenic differentiation of bone marrow derived mesenchymal progenitor cells and calvarial osteoblasts in a two-dimensional (2-D) and three-dimensional (3-D) culture environment (Part I of this study) and their potential in combination with a biodegradable scaffold to reconstruct critical-size calvarial defects in an autologous animal model [Part II of this study; see Schantz, J.T., et al. Tissue Eng. 2003;9(Suppl. 1):S-127-S-139; this issue]. New Zealand White rabbits were used to isolate osteoblasts from calvarial bone chips and bone marrow stromal cells from iliac crest bone marrow aspirates. Multilineage differentiation potential was evaluated in a 2-D culture setting. After amplification, the cells were seeded within a fibrin matrix into a 3-D polycaprolactone (PCL) scaffold system. The constructs were cultured for up to 3 weeks in vitro and assayed for cell attachment and proliferation using phase-contrast light, confocal laser, and scanning electron microscopy and the MTS cell metabolic assay. Osteogenic differentiation was analyzed by determining the expression of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and osteocalcin. The bone marrow-derived progenitor cells demonstrated the potential to be induced to the osteogenic, adipogenic, and chondrogenic pathways. In a 3-D environment, cell-seeded PCL scaffolds evaluated by confocal laser microscopy revealed continuous cell proliferation and homogeneous cell distribution within the PCL scaffolds. On osteogenic induction mesenchymal progenitor cells (12 U/L) produce significantly higher (p < 0.05) ALP activity than do osteoblasts (2 U/L); however, no significant differences were found in osteocalcin expression. In conclusion, this study showed that the combination of a mechanically stable synthetic framework (PCL scaffolds) and a biomimetic hydrogel (fibrin glue) provides a potential matrix for bone tissue-engineering applications. Comparison of osteogenic differentiation between the two mesenchymal cell sources revealed a similar pattern.

Direct writing of chitosan scaffolds using a robotic system

Purpose – This paper aims to present a novel rapid prototyping (RP) fabrication methods and preliminary characterization for chitosan scaffolds. Design – A desktop rapid prototyping robot dispensing (RPBOD) system has been developed to fabricate scaffolds for tissue engineering (TE) applications. The system is a computer-controlled four-axis machine with a multiple-dispenser head. Neutralization of the acetic acid by the sodium hydroxide results in a precipitate to form a gel-like chitosan strand. The scaffold properties were characterized by scanning electron microscopy, porosity calculation and compression test. An example of fabrication of a freeform hydrogel scaffold is demonstrated. The required geometric data for the freeform scaffold were obtained from CT-scan images and the dispensing path control data were converted form its volume model. The applications of the scaffolds are discussed based on its potential for TE. Findings – It is shown that the RPBOD system can be interfaced with imaging techniques and computational modeling to produce scaffolds which can be customized in overall size and shape allowing tissue-engineered grafts to be tailored to specific applications or even for individual patients. Research limitations/implications – Important challenges for further research are the incorporation of growth factors, as well as cell seeding into the 3D dispensing plotting materials. Improvements regarding the mechanical properties of the scaffolds are also necessary. Originality/value – One of the important aspects of TE is the design scaffolds. For customized TE, it is essential to be able to fabricate 3D scaffolds of various geometric shapes, in order to repair tissue defects. RP or solid free-form fabrication techniques hold great promise for designing 3D customized scaffolds; yet traditional cell-seeding techniques may not provide enough cell mass for larger constructs. This paper presents a novel attempt to fabricate 3D scaffolds, using hydrogels which in the future can be combined with cells.

Empirical investigation of interactive highway safety design model accident prediction algorithm : Rural intersections

One major gap in transportation system safety management is the ability to assess the safety ramifications of design changes for both new road projects and modifications to existing roads. To fulfill this need, FHWA and its many partners are developing a safety forecasting tool, the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The tool will be used by roadway design engineers, safety analysts, and planners throughout the United States. As such, the statistical models embedded in IHSDM will need to be able to forecast safety impacts under a wide range of roadway configurations and environmental conditions for a wide range of driver populations and will need to be able to capture elements of driving risk across states. One of the IHSDM algorithms developed by FHWA and its contractors is for forecasting accidents on rural road segments and rural intersections. The methodological approach is to use predictive models for specific base conditions, with traffic volume information as the sole explanatory variable for crashes, and then to apply regional or state calibration factors and accident modification factors (AMFs) to estimate the impact on accidents of geometric characteristics that differ from the base model conditions. In the majority of past approaches, AMFs are derived from parameter estimates associated with the explanatory variables. A recent study for FHWA used a multistate database to examine in detail the use of the algorithm with the base model-AMF approach and explored alternative base model forms as well as the use of full models that included nontraffic-related variables and other approaches to estimate AMFs. That research effort is reported. The results support the IHSDM methodology.

On model typing

Where object-oriented languages deal with objects as described by classes, model-driven development uses models, as graphs of interconnected objects, described by metamodels. A number of new languages have been and continue to be developed for this model- based paradigm, both for model transformation and for general programming using models. Many of these use single-object approaches to typing, derived from solutions found in object-oriented systems, while others use metamodels as model types, but without a clear notion of polymorphism. Both of these approaches lead to brittle and overly restrictive reuse characteristics. In this paper we propose a simple extension to object-oriented typing to better cater for a model-oriented context, including a simple strategy for typing models as a collection of interconnected objects. We suggest extensions to existing type system formalisms to support these concepts and their manipulation. Using a simple example we show how this extended approach permits more flexible reuse, while preserving type safety.

An alginate-based hybrid system for growth factor delivery in the functional repair of large bone defects

The treatment of challenging fractures and large osseous defects presents a formidable problem for orthopaedic surgeons. Tissue engineering/regenerative medicine approaches seek to solve this problem by delivering osteogenic signals within scaffolding biomaterials. In this study, we introduce a hybrid growth factor delivery system that consists of an electrospun nanofiber mesh tube for guiding bone regeneration combined with peptide-modified alginate hydrogel injected inside the tube for sustained growth factor release. We tested the ability of this system to deliver recombinant bone morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2) for the repair of critically-sized segmental bone defects in a rat model. Longitudinal [mu]-CT analysis and torsional testing provided quantitative assessment of bone regeneration. Our results indicate that the hybrid delivery system resulted in consistent bony bridging of the challenging bone defects. However, in the absence of rhBMP-2, the use of nanofiber mesh tube and alginate did not result in substantial bone formation. Perforations in the nanofiber mesh accelerated the rhBMP-2 mediated bone repair, and resulted in functional restoration of the regenerated bone. [mu]-CT based angiography indicated that perforations did not significantly affect the revascularization of defects, suggesting that some other interaction with the tissue surrounding the defect such as improved infiltration of osteoprogenitor cells contributed to the observed differences in repair. Overall, our results indicate that the hybrid alginate/nanofiber mesh system is a promising growth factor delivery strategy for the repair of challenging bone injuries.

Validation of the MEASURE automobile emissions model : a statistical analysis

The Mobile Emissions Assessment System for Urban and Regional Evaluation (MEASURE) model provides an external validation capability for hot stabilized option; the model is one of several new modal emissions models designed to predict hot stabilized emission rates for various motor vehicle groups as a function of the conditions under which the vehicles are operating. The validation of aggregate measurements, such as speed and acceleration profile, is performed on an independent data set using three statistical criteria. The MEASURE algorithms have proved to provide significant improvements in both average emission estimates and explanatory power over some earlier models for pollutants across almost every operating cycle tested.

Intelligent negotiation behaviour model for an open railway access market

In an open railway access market, the provisions of railway infrastructures and train services are separated and independent. Negotiations between the track owner and train service providers are thus required for the allocation of the track capacity and the formulation of the services timetables, in which each party, i.e. a stakeholder, exhibits intelligence from the previous negotiation experience to obtain the favourable terms and conditions for the track access. In order to analyse the realistic interacting behaviour among the stakeholders in the open railway access market schedule negotiations, intelligent learning capability should be included in the behaviour modelling. This paper presents a reinforcement learning approach on modelling the intelligent negotiation behaviour. The effectiveness of incorporating learning capability in the stakeholder negotiation behaviour is then demonstrated through simulation.

Conflict resolution through negotiation in a railway open access market : a multi-agent system approach

Open access reforms to railway regulations allow multiple train operators to provide rail services on a common infrastructure. As railway operations are now independently managed by different stakeholders, conflicts in operations may arise, and there have been attempts to derive an effective access charge regime so that these conflicts may be resolved. One approach is by direct negotiation between the infrastructure manager and the train service providers. Despite the substantial literature on the topic, few consider the benefits of employing computer simulation as an evaluation tool for railway operational activities such as access pricing. This article proposes a multi-agent system (MAS) framework for the railway open market and demonstrates its feasibility by modelling the negotiation between an infrastructure provider and a train service operator. Empirical results show that the model is capable of resolving operational conflicts according to market demand.

Modelling issues on the railway resource management process using multi-agent system

Many infrastructure and necessity systems such as electricity and telecommunication in Europe and the Northern America were used to be operated as monopolies, if not state-owned. However, they have now been disintegrated into a group of smaller companies managed by different stakeholders. Railways are no exceptions. Since the early 1980s, there have been reforms in the shape of restructuring of the national railways in different parts of the world. Continuous refinements are still conducted to allow better utilisation of railway resources and quality of service. There has been a growing interest for the industry to understand the impacts of these reforms on the operation efficiency and constraints. A number of post-evaluations have been conducted by analysing the performance of the stakeholders on their profits (Crompton and Jupe 2003), quality of train service (Shaw 2001) and engineering operations (Watson 2001). Results from these studies are valuable for future improvement in the system, followed by a new cycle of post-evaluations. However, direct implementation of these changes is often costly and the consequences take a long period of time (e.g. years) to surface. With the advance of fast computing technologies, computer simulation is a cost-effective means to evaluate a hypothetical change in a system prior to actual implementation. For example, simulation suites have been developed to study a variety of traffic control strategies according to sophisticated models of train dynamics, traction and power systems (Goodman, Siu and Ho 1998, Ho and Yeung 2001). Unfortunately, under the restructured railway environment, it is by no means easy to model the complex behaviour of the stakeholders and the interactions between them. Multi-agent system (MAS) is a recently developed modelling technique which may be useful in assisting the railway industry to conduct simulations on the restructured railway system. In MAS, a real-world entity is modelled as a software agent that is autonomous, reactive to changes, able to initiate proactive actions and social communicative acts. It has been applied in the areas of supply-chain management processes (García-Flores, Wang and Goltz 2000, Jennings et al. 2000a, b) and e-commerce activities (Au, Ngai and Parameswaran 2003, Liu and You 2003), in which the objectives and behaviour of the buyers and sellers are captured by software agents. It is therefore beneficial to investigate the suitability or feasibility of applying agent modelling in railways and the extent to which it might help in developing better resource management strategies. This paper sets out to examine the benefits of using MAS to model the resource management process in railways. Section 2 first describes the business environment after the railway 2 Modelling issues on the railway resource management process using MAS reforms. Then the problems emerge from the restructuring process are identified in section 3. Section 4 describes the realisation of a MAS for railway resource management under the restructured scheme and the feasible studies expected from the model.