119 resultados para UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE
Resumo:
Engineers and asset managers must often make decisions on how to best allocate limited resources amongst different interrelated activities, including repair, renewal, inspection, and procurement of new assets. The presence of project interdependencies and the lack of sufficient information on the true value of an activity often produce complex problems and leave the decision maker guessing about the quality and robustness of their decision. In this paper, a decision support framework for uncertain interrelated activities is presented. The framework employs a methodology for multi-criteria ranking in the presence of uncertainty, detailing the effect that uncertain valuations may have on the priority of a particular activity. The framework employs employing semi-quantitative risk measures that can be tailored to an organisation and enable a transparent and simple-to-use uncertainty specification by the decision maker. The framework is then demonstrated on a real world project set from a major Australian utility provider.
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A teaching laboratory experiment is described that uses Archimedes’ principle to precisely investigate the effect of global warming on the oceans. A large component of sea level rise is due to the increase in the volume of water due to the decrease in water density with increasing temperature. Water close to 0 °C is placed in a beaker and a glass marble hung from an electronic balance immersed in the water. As the water warms, the weight of the marble increases as the water is less buoyant due to the decrease in density. In the experiment performed in this paper a balance with a precision of 0.1 mg was used with a marble 40.0 cm3 and mass of 99.3 g, yielding water density measurements with an average error of -0.008 ± 0.011%.
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In this paper the issue of finding uncertainty intervals for queries in a Bayesian Network is reconsidered. The investigation focuses on Bayesian Nets with discrete nodes and finite populations. An earlier asymptotic approach is compared with a simulation-based approach, together with further alternatives, one based on a single sample of the Bayesian Net of a particular finite population size, and another which uses expected population sizes together with exact probabilities. We conclude that a query of a Bayesian Net should be expressed as a probability embedded in an uncertainty interval. Based on an investigation of two Bayesian Net structures, the preferred method is the simulation method. However, both the single sample method and the expected sample size methods may be useful and are simpler to compute. Any method at all is more useful than none, when assessing a Bayesian Net under development, or when drawing conclusions from an ‘expert’ system.
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This paper demonstrates the procedures for probabilistic assessment of a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, to elucidate the modeling uncertainty using the Monte Carlo technique. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the influence of herbicide characteristics and related soil properties on model outputs using four popular rice herbicides: mefenacet, pretilachlor, bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron. Uncertainty quantification showed that the simulated concentrations in paddy water varied more than those of paddy soil. This tendency decreased as the simulation proceeded to a later period but remained important for herbicides having either high solubility or a high 1st-order dissolution rate. The sensitivity analysis indicated that PCPF-1 parameters requiring careful determination are primarily those involve with herbicide adsorption (the organic carbon content, the bulk density and the volumetric saturated water content), secondary parameters related with herbicide mass distribution between paddy water and soil (1st-order desorption and dissolution rates) and lastly, those involving herbicide degradations. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.
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This report provides an evaluation of the implementation of the Polluter Pays Principle (PPP) – a principle of international environmental law – in the context of pollution from sugarcane farming affecting Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The research was part of an experiment to test methods for evaluating the effectiveness of environmental laws. Overall, we found that whilst the PPP is reflected to a limited extent in Australian law (more so in Queensland law, than at the national level), the behaviour one might expect in terms of implementing the principle was largely inadequate. Evidence of a longer term, explicit commitment to the PPP was particularly weak.
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This article addresses the need of an implementation mechanism for the protection of refugees’ rights. However, it is contended that the principle forms part of Customary International Law, under which it is binding on all states irrespective of whether or not they are parties to the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees 1951 or its Protocol 1967. Since last decade, U.S and its allies have been fighting to curve terrorism which has raised many issues such as human rights violation, deportation, expulsion, extradition, rendition and many more. Pakistan has played a very critical role in War against Terrorism, particularly in reference of war in Afghanistan. Particular concern of this article is the violation of refugees’ rights in Pakistan in 2008 and 2010. This article would highlight the legislation regarding non-expulsion of Afghan refugees from Pakistan to a territory where they have well founded fear of persecution. Article is divided into three parts, the first one deals with “Principle of Non-Refoulement”, the second one deals with “exceptions to the principle” whereas the last one discusses the violation of the very principle in Pakistan with reference to Afghan refugees.
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In this paper we tackle the problem of efficient video event detection. We argue that linear detection functions should be preferred in this regard due to their scalability and efficiency during estimation and evaluation. A popular approach in this regard is to represent a sequence using a bag of words (BOW) representation due to its: (i) fixed dimensionality irrespective of the sequence length, and (ii) its ability to compactly model the statistics in the sequence. A drawback to the BOW representation, however, is the intrinsic destruction of the temporal ordering information. In this paper we propose a new representation that leverages the uncertainty in relative temporal alignments between pairs of sequences while not destroying temporal ordering. Our representation, like BOW, is of a fixed dimensionality making it easily integrated with a linear detection function. Extensive experiments on CK+, 6DMG, and UvA-NEMO databases show significant performance improvements across both isolated and continuous event detection tasks.
Resumo:
The rule of law is understood to be a core aspect in achieving a stable economy and an ordered society. Without the elements that are inherent in this principle the possibilities of anarchy, unfairness and uncertainty are amplified, which in turn can result in an economy with dramatic fluctuations. In this regard, commentators do not always agree that the rule of law is strictly adhered to in the international legal context. Therefore, this paper will explore one aspect of international regulation and consider whether the UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross-border Insolvency (1997) (‘Model Law’) and its associated Guide to Enactment and Interpretation (2013) contribute to the promotion of the key elements of the rule of law.
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This report is the result of a small-scale experiment looking at improving methods for evaluating environmental laws. The objective in this research was to evaluate the effectiveness of the precautionary principle – an accepted principle of international environmental law – in the context of Australia’s endangered species. Two case studies were selected by our team: the (Great) White Shark and an endangered native Australian plant known as Tylophora Linearis.
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The aim of this paper is to propose design principles for ambient intelligence (AmI) environments. The question we are investigating is how these environments can be designed to support a group to be able to carry out common goal-oriented activities. The approach we are taking in answering this question is informed by the concept of collective intelligence (CI). We are applying the concept of CI to AmI as we have found it works well in biological and social systems. Examples from nature demonstrate the power of CI stimulated by implicit cues in the environment. We use these examples to derive design principles for AmI environments. By applying these design principles to a concrete scenario, we are able to propose ways to help decrease environmental pollution within urban areas.
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Assessing build-up and wash-off process uncertainty is important for accurate interpretation of model outcomes to facilitate informed decision making for developing effective stormwater pollution mitigation strategies. Uncertainty inherent to pollutant build-up and wash-off processes influences the variations in pollutant loads entrained in stormwater runoff from urban catchments. However, build-up and wash-off predictions from stormwater quality models do not adequately represent such variations due to poor characterisation of the variability of these processes in mathematical models. The changes to the mathematical form of current models with the incorporation of process variability, facilitates accounting for process uncertainty without significantly affecting the model prediction performance. Moreover, the investigation of uncertainty propagation from build-up to wash-off confirmed that uncertainty in build-up process significantly influences wash-off process uncertainty. Specifically, the behaviour of particles <150µm during build-up primarily influences uncertainty propagation, resulting in appreciable variations in the pollutant load and composition during a wash-off event.
Resumo:
Uncertainty inherent to heavy metal build-up and wash-off stems from process variability. This results in inaccurate interpretation of stormwater quality model predictions. The research study has characterised the variability in heavy metal build-up and wash-off processes based on the temporal variations in particle-bound heavy metals commonly found on urban roads. The study outcomes found that the distribution of Al, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb were consistent over particle size fractions <150µm and >150µm, with most metals concentrated in the particle size fraction <150µm. When build-up and wash-off are considered as independent processes, the temporal variations in these processes in relation to the heavy metals load are consistent with variations in the particulate load. However, the temporal variations in the load in build-up and wash-off of heavy metals and particulates are not consistent for consecutive build-up and wash-off events that occur on a continuous timeline. These inconsistencies are attributed to interactions between heavy metals and particulates <150µm and >150µm, which are influenced by particle characteristics such as organic matter content. The behavioural variability of particles determines the variations in the heavy metals load entrained in stormwater runoff. Accordingly, the variability in build-up and wash-off of particle-bound pollutants needs to be characterised in the description of pollutant attachment to particulates in stormwater quality modelling. This will ensure the accounting of process uncertainty, and thereby enhancing the interpretation of the outcomes derived from modelling studies.
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There are some scenarios in which Unmmaned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) navigation becomes a challenge due to the occlusion of GPS systems signal, the presence of obstacles and constraints in the space in which a UAV operates. An additional challenge is presented when a target whose location is unknown must be found within a confined space. In this paper we present a UAV navigation and target finding mission, modelled as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) using a state-of-the-art online solver in a real scenario using a low cost commercial multi rotor UAV and a modular system architecture running under the Robotic Operative System (ROS). Using POMDP has several advantages to conventional approaches as they take into account uncertainties in sensor information. We present a framework for testing the mission with simulation tests and real flight tests in which we model the system dynamics and motion and perception uncertainties. The system uses a quad-copter aircraft with an board downwards looking camera without the need of GPS systems while avoiding obstacles within a confined area. Results indicate that the system has 100% success rate in simulation and 80% rate during flight test for finding targets located at different locations.
Resumo:
There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.