Unstructured strategic decision-making processes : CRE decision-making in the Italian consulting industry

This thesis aims at developing a better understanding of unstructured strategic decision making processes and the conditions for achieving successful decision outcomes. Specifically it focuses on the processes used to make CRE (Corporate Real Estate) decisions. The starting point for this thesis is that our knowledge of such processes is incomplete. A comprehensive study of the most recent CRE literature together with Behavioural Organization Theory has provided a research framework for the exploration of CRE recommended =best practice‘, and of how organizational variables impact on and shape these practices. To reveal the fundamental differences between CRE decision-making in practice and the prescriptive =best practice‘ advocated in the CRE literature, a study of seven Italian management consulting firms was undertaken addressing the aspects of content and process of decisions. This thesis makes its primary contribution by identifying the importance and difficulty of finding the right balance between problem complexity, process richness and cohesion to ensure a decision-making process that is sufficiently rich and yet quick enough to deliver a prompt outcome. While doing so, this research also provides more empirical evidence to some of the most established theories of decision-making while reinterpreting their mono-dimensional arguments in a multi-dimensional model of successful decision-making.

Developing an integrated decision model for the enhancement of sustainability deliverables for Australian road infrastructure projects

Road and highway infrastructure provides the backbone for a nation's economic growth. The versatile dispersion of population in Australia, from sparsely settled communities in remote areas to regenerated inner city suburbs with high density living in metropolitans, calls for continuing development and improvement on roads infrastructure under the current federal government policies and state governments' strategic plans. As road infrastructure projects involve large resources and mechanism, achieving sustainability not only in economic scales but also through environmental and social responsibility becomes a crucial issue. Current efforts are often impeded by different interpretation on sustainability agenda by stakeholders involved in these types of projects. As a result, sustainability deliverables at the project level is not often as transparent and measurable, compared to promises in project briefs and designs. This paper reviews the past studies on sustainable infrastructure construction, focusing on roads and highway projects. Through literature study and consultation with the industry, key sustainability indicators specific to road infrastructure projects have been identified. Based on these findings, this paper introduces an on-going research project aimed at identifying and integrating the different perceptions and priority needs of the stakeholders, and issues that impact on the gap between sustainability foci and its actual realization at project end level. The exploration helps generate an integrated decision-making model for sustainable road infrastructure projects. The research will promote to the industry more systematic and integrated approaches to decision-making on the implementation of sustainability strategies to achieve deliverable goals throughout the development and delivery process of road infrastructure projects in Australia.

Setting hospital infection control policy : a decision-making framework incorporating health economics and healthcare epidemiology

Background: Reducing rates of healthcare acquired infection has been identified by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care as a national priority. One of the goals is the prevention of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). At least 3,500 cases of CR-BSI occur annually in Australian hospitals, resulting in unnecessary deaths and costs to the healthcare system between $25.7 and $95.3 million. Two approaches to preventing these infections have been proposed: use of antimicrobial catheters (A-CVCs); or a catheter care and management ‘bundle’. Given finite healthcare budgets, decisions about the optimal infection control policy require consideration of the effectiveness and value for money of each approach. Objectives: The aim of this research is to use a rational economic framework to inform efficient infection control policy relating to the prevention of CR-BSI in the intensive care unit. It addresses three questions relating to decision-making in this area: 1. Is additional investment in activities aimed at preventing CR-BSI an efficient use of healthcare resources? 2. What is the optimal infection control strategy from amongst the two major approaches that have been proposed to prevent CR-BSI? 3. What uncertainty is there in this decision and can a research agenda to improve decision-making in this area be identified? Methods: A decision analytic model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify an efficient approach to preventing CR-BSI in Queensland Health intensive care units. A Markov model was developed in conjunction with a panel of clinical experts which described the epidemiology and prognosis of CR-BSI. The model was parameterised using data systematically identified from the published literature and extracted from routine databases. The quality of data used in the model and its validity to clinical experts and sensitivity to modelling assumptions was assessed. Two separate economic evaluations were conducted. The first evaluation compared all commercially available A-CVCs alongside uncoated catheters to identify which was cost-effective for routine use. The uncertainty in this decision was estimated along with the value of collecting further information to inform the decision. The second evaluation compared the use of A-CVCs to a catheter care bundle. We were unable to estimate the cost of the bundle because it is unclear what the full resource requirements are for its implementation, and what the value of these would be in an Australian context. As such we undertook a threshold analysis to identify the cost and effectiveness thresholds at which a hypothetical bundle would dominate the use of A-CVCs under various clinical scenarios. Results: In the first evaluation of A-CVCs, the findings from the baseline analysis, in which uncertainty is not considered, show that the use of any of the four A-CVCs will result in health gains accompanied by cost-savings. The MR catheters dominate the baseline analysis generating 1.64 QALYs and cost-savings of $130,289 per 1.000 catheters. With uncertainty, and based on current information, the MR catheters remain the optimal decision and return the highest average net monetary benefits ($948 per catheter) relative to all other catheter types. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested, however, the probability of error in this conclusion is high, 62% in the baseline scenario. Using a value of $40,000 per QALY, the expected value of perfect information associated with this decision is $7.3 million. An analysis of the expected value of perfect information for individual parameters suggests that it may be worthwhile for future research to focus on providing better estimates of the mortality attributable to CR-BSI and the effectiveness of both SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters. In the second evaluation of the catheter care bundle relative to A-CVCs, the results which do not consider uncertainty indicate that a bundle must achieve a relative risk of CR-BSI of at least 0.45 to be cost-effective relative to MR catheters. If the bundle can reduce rates of infection from 2.5% to effectively zero, it is cost-effective relative to MR catheters if national implementation costs are less than $2.6 million ($56,610 per ICU). If the bundle can achieve a relative risk of 0.34 (comparable to that reported in the literature) it is cost-effective, relative to MR catheters, if costs over an 18 month period are below $613,795 nationally ($13,343 per ICU). Once uncertainty in the decision is considered, the cost threshold for the bundle increases to $2.2 million. Therefore, if each of the 46 Level III ICUs could implement an 18 month catheter care bundle for less than $47,826 each, this approach would be cost effective relative to A-CVCs. However, the uncertainty is substantial and the probability of error in concluding that the bundle is the cost-effective approach at a cost of $2.2 million is 89%. Conclusions: This work highlights that infection control to prevent CR-BSI is an efficient use of healthcare resources in the Australian context. If there is no further investment in infection control, an opportunity cost is incurred, which is the potential for a more efficient healthcare system. Minocycline/rifampicin catheters are the optimal choice of antimicrobial catheter for routine use in Australian Level III ICUs, however, if a catheter care bundle implemented in Australia was as effective as those used in the large studies in the United States it would be preferred over the catheters if it was able to be implemented for less than $47,826 per Level III ICU. Uncertainty is very high in this decision and arises from multiple sources. There are likely greater costs to this uncertainty for A-CVCs, which may carry hidden costs, than there are for a catheter care bundle, which is more likely to provide indirect benefits to clinical practice and patient safety. Research into the mortality attributable to CR-BSI, the effectiveness of SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters and the cost and effectiveness of a catheter care bundle in Australia should be prioritised to reduce uncertainty in this decision. This thesis provides the economic evidence to inform one area of infection control, but there are many other infection control decisions for which information about the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions does not exist. This work highlights some of the challenges and benefits to generating and using economic evidence for infection control decision-making and provides support for commissioning more research into the cost-effectiveness of infection control.

Open standards-based system integration for asset management decision support

Over the last decade, system integration has grown in popularity as it allows organisations to streamline business processes. Traditionally, system integration has been conducted through point-to-point solutions – as a new integration scenario requirement arises, a custom solution is built between the relevant systems. Bus-based solutions are now preferred, whereby all systems communicate via an intermediary system such as an enterprise service bus, using a common data exchange model. This research investigates the use of a common data exchange model based on open standards, specifically MIMOSA OSA-EAI, for asset management system integration. A case study is conducted that involves the integration of processes between a SCADA, maintenance decision support and work management system. A diverse number of software platforms are employed in developing the final solution, all tied together through MIMOSA OSA-EAI-based XML web services. The lessons learned from the exercise are presented throughout the paper.

Defining the public interests in airport development decision-making

Residents, businesses, local, state and national government stakeholders all want to have their say when airports expand or develop. While stakeholder engagement is increasingly a strategy employed for managing the tensions attracted to airport development, different stakeholders have different expectations and demands of airports. This requires different approaches to stakeholder engagement. Identifying the public interests that are at stake in developing airports provides an initial step towards building a platform for selecting and applying stakeholder engagement strategies in airport and more general infrastructure contexts. This paper uses the existing literature of public interests and values to build a general typology of public values for the stakeholders of airport development. A range of semi-privatised and state owned airport case studies from Europe have been used to demonstrate the universal nature of the identified values. The result is a framework that identifies both the substantive and procedural values, separated into local, state/regional and national levels of interest. The typology provides a generalised view of public interests in airport development; however, the public interests identified may be limited to more western oriented societies due to the skew of airport cases reviewed. Contributions are made to the literature with a typology of public values derived from existing knowledge and explored using empirical case examples. The provided typology enables research of airport development decision-making to delineate public interests both within and between stakeholder groups, and helps to explain the different perspectives that stakeholders have towards airport development. Future research may focus on refining the typology for different types of airport governance structures, such as differences between public values in state and market-led airport development; include more airport cases from eastern societies to draw parallels or differences between western and eastern societies; or utilise the typology as a framework for analysing changes in public interests of airports over time.

Sustainable housing implementation through mutual benefits to stakeholders : a decision making approach

Improved public awareness and strong sentiments towards environmental issues will continue to create increasing demand for sustainable housing (SH) in the coming years. Despite this potential, the up-take rate of sustainable housing in new build and through home renovation is not as high as expected within the housing industry. This is in contrast to the influx of emerging building technologies, new materials and innovative designs seen in exemplar homes built worldwide. How we should use the increasing awareness of SH and emerging technologies as an impetus to change the un-sustainable designs and practices of the building industry is high on the agenda of the government and majority of the stakeholders involved. This warrants the study of multifaceted strategies that meet the needs of multiple stakeholders and integrated seamlessly into housing development processes. Specifically, the different perceptions, roles and incentives of stakeholders, who inevitably need to ensure their benefits and commercial returns, should be highlighted and acted upon. ----- This paper discusses the preliminary findings of a research project that aims to promote SH implementation by identifying and materializing the mutual benefits among key stakeholders. The aim is to be achieved through questionnaire surveys, structural equation modelling, interviews and case studies with seven major stakeholders within the Australian housing industry. This research identifies the influence and relationship of relevant factors, investigates preferences, similarities and differences between stakeholders on perceived benefits and in turn explores the mutual-benefit strategy package that facilitates decision making towards sustainable housing development.

SCAPE sustainable urban design simulation

SCAPE is an interactive simulation that allows teachers and students to experiment with sustainable urban design. The project is based on the Kelvin Grove Urban Village, Brisbane. Groups of students role play as political, retail, elderly, student, council and builder characters to negotiate on game decisions around land use, density, housing types and transport in order to design a sustainable urban community. As they do so, the 3D simulation reacts in real time to illustrate what the village would look like as well as provide statistical information about the community they are creating. SCAPE brings together education, urban professional and technology expertise, helping it achieve educational outcomes, reflect real-world scenarios and include sophisticated logic and decision making processes and effects.---------- The research methodology was primarily practice led underpinned by action research methods resulting in innovative approaches and techniques in adapting digital games and simulation technologies to create dynamic and engaging experiences in pedagogical contexts. It also illustrates the possibilities for urban designers to engage a variety of communities in the processes, complexities and possibilities of urban development and sustainability.

Wireless channel modelling for indoor populated environments : statistical characterization of narrowband channels at 2.45 Ghz and 5.2 Ghz

The recent development of indoor wireless local area network (WLAN) standards at 2.45 GHz and 5 GHz has led to increased interest in propagation studies at these frequency bands. Within the indoor environment, human body effects can strongly reduce the quality of wireless communication systems. Human body effects can cause temporal variations and shadowing due to pedestrian movement and antenna- body interaction with portable terminals. This book presents a statistical characterisation, based on measurements, of human body effects on indoor narrowband channels at 2.45 GHz and at 5.2 GHz. A novel cumulative distribution function (CDF) that models the 5 GHz narrowband channel in populated indoor environments is proposed. This novel CDF describes the received envelope in terms of pedestrian traffic. In addition, a novel channel model for the populated indoor environment is proposed for the Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) narrowband channel in presence of pedestrians at 2.45 GHz. Results suggest that practical MIMO systems must be sufficiently adaptive if they are to benefit from the capacity enhancement caused by pedestrian movement.

Towards a model of understanding strategic decision-making in micro-firms : exploring the Australian information technology sector

This study explores strategic decision-making (SDM) in micro-firms, an economically significant business subsector. As extant large- and small-firm literature currently proffers an incomplete characterization of SDM in very small enterprises, a multiple-case methodology was used to investigate how these firms make strategic decisions. Eleven Australian Information Technology service micro-firms participated in the study. Using an information-processing lens, the study uncovered patterns of SDM in micro-firms and derived a theoretical micro-firm SDM model. This research also identifies several implications for micro-firm management and directions for future research, contributing to the understanding of micro-firm SDM in both theory and practice.

Farm it right : the sustainable farming simulation

Farm It Right is an innovative creative work that simulates sustainable farming techniques using ecological models prepared by academics at Bradford University (School of Life Sciences). This interactive work simulates the farming conditions and options of our ancestors and demonstrates the direct impact their actions had on their environment and on the ’future of their cultures’ (Schmidt 2008). Specifically, the simulation allows users to explore and experiment with the complex relationships between environmental factors and human decision making within the harsh conditions of an early (9th century) Nordic farm. The simulation interface displays both statistical and graphical feedback in response to the users selections regarding animal reproduction rates, shelter provisions, food supplies etc. as well as demonstrating resulting impacts to soil erosion, water supply, animal population sizes etc.---------- 'Farm It Right' is now used at Bradford University (School of Life Sciences) as a dynamic e-Learning resource for incorporating environmental archaeology with sustainable development education, improving the engagement with complex data and the appreciation of human impacts on the environment and the future of their cultures. 'Farm It Right' is also demonstrated as an exemplar case study for interaction design students at Queensland University of Technology.

Latent variable models in statistical genetics

Understanding the complexities that are involved in the genetics of multifactorial diseases is still a monumental task. In addition to environmental factors that can influence the risk of disease, there is also a number of other complicating factors. Genetic variants associated with age of disease onset may be different from those variants associated with overall risk of disease, and variants may be located in positions that are not consistent with the traditional protein coding genetic paradigm. Latent Variable Models are well suited for the analysis of genetic data. A latent variable is one that we do not directly observe, but which is believed to exist or is included for computational or analytic convenience in a model. This thesis presents a mixture of methodological developments utilising latent variables, and results from case studies in genetic epidemiology and comparative genomics. Epidemiological studies have identified a number of environmental risk factors for appendicitis, but the disease aetiology of this oft thought useless vestige remains largely a mystery. The effects of smoking on other gastrointestinal disorders are well documented, and in light of this, the thesis investigates the association between smoking and appendicitis through the use of latent variables. By utilising data from a large Australian twin study questionnaire as both cohort and case-control, evidence is found for the association between tobacco smoking and appendicitis. Twin and family studies have also found evidence for the role of heredity in the risk of appendicitis. Results from previous studies are extended here to estimate the heritability of age-at-onset and account for the eect of smoking. This thesis presents a novel approach for performing a genome-wide variance components linkage analysis on transformed residuals from a Cox regression. This method finds evidence for a dierent subset of genes responsible for variation in age at onset than those associated with overall risk of appendicitis. Motivated by increasing evidence of functional activity in regions of the genome once thought of as evolutionary graveyards, this thesis develops a generalisation to the Bayesian multiple changepoint model on aligned DNA sequences for more than two species. This sensitive technique is applied to evaluating the distributions of evolutionary rates, with the finding that they are much more complex than previously apparent. We show strong evidence for at least 9 well-resolved evolutionary rate classes in an alignment of four Drosophila species and at least 7 classes in an alignment of four mammals, including human. A pattern of enrichment and depletion of genic regions in the profiled segments suggests they are functionally significant, and most likely consist of various functional classes. Furthermore, a method of incorporating alignment characteristics representative of function such as GC content and type of mutation into the segmentation model is developed within this thesis. Evidence of fine-structured segmental variation is presented.

Building a successful partnership to increase affordable rental housing supply in Queensland

Accessibility to housing for low to moderate income groups in Australia has been experiencing a severe decline since 2001. On the supply side, the public sector has been reducing its commitment to the direct provision of public housing. Despite high demand for affordable housing, there has been limited supply generated by non-government housing providers. One possible solution to promote an increase in affordable housing supply, like other infrastructure, is through the development of multi-stakeholder partnerships and private financing. This research aims to identify current issues underlying decision-making criteria for building multi-stakeholder partnerships to deliver affordable housing projects. It also investigates strategies for minimising risk and ensuring the financial outcomes of these partnership arrangements. A mix of qualitative in-depth interviews and quantitative surveys has been used as the main method to explore stakeholder experiences regarding their involvement in partnership arrangements in the affordable housing sector in Queensland. Two sets of interviews were conducted following an exploratory pilot study: one set in 2003-2004 and the other in 2007-2008. There were nineteen respondents representing government, private and not-for-profit organisations in the first stage interviews and surveys. The second stage interviews were focussed on twenty-two housing providers in South East Queensland. Initial analyses have been conducted using thematic and statistical analyses. This study extends the use of existing decision making tools and combines the use of a Soft System Framework to analyse the ideal state questionnaires using qualitative thematic analysis. Soft System Methodology (SSM) has been used to analyse this unstructured complex problem by using systematic thinking to develop a conceptual model and carrying it to the real world situations to solve the problem. This research found that the diversity of stakeholder capability and their level of risk acceptance will allow partnerships to develop the best synergies and a degree of collaboration which achieves the required financial return within acceptable risk parameters. However, some of the negativity attached to future commitment to such partnerships has been found to be the anticipation of a worse outcome than that expected from independent action. Many interviewees agree that housing providers' fear of financial risk and community rejection has been central to dampening their enthusiasm for entering such investment projects. The creation of a mixed-use development structure will mitigate both risk and return as the commercial income will subsidise the affordable housing development and will normalise concentration of marginalised low-income people who live in a prime location with an award winning design. In addition, tenant support schemes and rent-to-buy incentive programs will encourage them to secure their tenancies and significantly reduce the risk of rent arrears and property damage. There is also a breakthrough investment vehicle offered by the social developer which sells the non-physical but financial product to individual and institutional investors to mitigate further financial risk. Finally, this study recommends modification of the current value-for-money framework in favour of broader partnership arrangements which are more closely aligned with risk minimisation strategies.