Spatio-temporal patterns of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Background Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis. Methods/Principal Findings We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (χ2 = 7587, df = 7327,p<0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. Conclusions/Significance This is the first study to examine spatial and temporal variation in the incidence rates of BFV disease across Queensland using GIS and geostatistics. The BFV transmission varied with age and gender, which may be due to exposure rates or behavioural risk factors. There are differences in the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease which may be related to local socio-ecological and environmental factors. These research findings may have implications in the BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Front page schools, back page schools : a case study of factors perceived to affect academic performance in five Papua New Guinea secondary schools

Papua New Guinea has reformed its colonial established education system and made huge investments with the help of donors to achieve equal access and quality education for all its citizens. Despite this national aspiration and these policy reforms and investments, secondary schools that enrol grade 9 students who are relatively equal in education ability show huge disparities in their grade 10 academic performances. This study examined perceptions of students, teachers and principals regarding factors affecting the disparity in academic performance in the context of a developing country. The central question for the study is: What are the perceptions of students and teachers of the factors that affect disparities in secondary schools' academic performance? This qualitative case study involved two high and three low academic performing secondary schools in Western Highlands Province of Papua New Guinea. Primary data were collected through focus groups and semi-structured interviews involving 112 participants. Students and teachers are key participants in this study, as it intends to find out the realities of schools, yet they are an under-researched group. A postcolonial and sense of community conceptual framework was developed for the analysis of the participants. perceptions. In addition, scholarship on school effectiveness and equity in education informed the interpretation of the findings. Three themes were evident in participants. views. First, participants expressed their view that differences in academic performance were related to the adequacy and equitability of resources. The inequities in resource inputs led some of them to coin the metaphor of .back page and front page. schools. Second, many expressed the view that deficiencies in implementing bilingual education, given the difficulty of catering for 800 vernacular languages, contribute to poor English proficiency and subsequent poor academic performance. Finally, participants believed that, in order to have a positive school culture, it is necessary for educators to recognise and respect contemporary students. identities, communal/tribal membership and needs. This study has implications for national education policy on resource allocation to address equality and equity, bilingual education and teacher education. Moreover, as the study found that high academic performance in this context is also influenced by intra-school social relationships, these relationships need to be nurtured. When appropriately nurtured, they become an important factor in sustaining quality education for all secondary school students. This thesis has laid the foundations for further research and invites further investigations into policy and implementation of school reforms aimed at improving academic achievement.

Secondary curve behavior in Lenke Type 1C adolescent idiopathic scoliosis after thoracoscopic selective anterior thoracic fusion

Study Design. Analysis of a case series of 24 Lenke 1C adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) patients receiving selective thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis correction. Objective. To report the behaviour of the compensatory lumbar curve in a group of Lenke IC AIS patients following thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis correction, and to compare the results of this study with previously published data. Summary of Background Data. Several prior studies have reported spontaneous lumbar curve correction for both anterior and posterior selective fusion in Lenke 1C/King-Moe II patients; however to our knowledge no previous studies have reported outcomes of thoracoscopic anterior correction for this curve type. Methods. All AIS patients with a curve classification of Lenke 1C and a minimum of 24 months follow-up were retrieved from a consecutive series of 190 AIS patients who underwent thoracoscopic anterior instrumented fusion. Cobb angles of the major curve, instrumented levels, compensatory lumbar curve, and T5-T12 kyphosis were recorded, as well as coronal spinal balance, T1 tilt angle and shoulder balance. All radiographic parameters were measured before surgery and at 2, 6, 12 and 24 months after surgery. Results. Twenty-four female patients with right thoracic curves had a mean thoracic Cobb angle of 53.0° before surgery, decreasing to 24.9° two years after surgery. The mean lumbar compensatory Cobb angle was 43.5° before surgery, spontaneously correcting to 25.4° two years after surgery, indicating balance between the thoracic and lumbar scoliotic curves. The lumbar correction achieved (41.8%) compares favourably to previous studies. Conclusions. Selective thoracoscopic anterior fusion allows spontaneous lumbar curve correction and achieves coronal balance of main thoracic and compensatory lumbar curves, good cosmesis and patient satisfaction. Correction and balance are maintained 24 months after surgery.

Combined VEGF and PDGF treatment reduces secondary degeneration after spinal cord injury

Trauma to the spinal cord creates an initial physical injury damaging neurons, glia, and blood vessels, which then induces a prolonged inflammatory response, leading to secondary degeneration of spinal cord tissue, and further loss of neurons and glia surrounding the initial site of injury. Angiogenesis is a critical step in tissue repair, but in the injured spinal cord angiogenesis fails; blood vessels formed initially later regress. Stabilizing the angiogenic response is therefore a potential target to improve recovery after spinal cord injury (SCI). Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) can initiate angiogenesis, but cannot sustain blood vessel maturation. Platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) can promote blood vessel stability and maturation. We therefore investigated a combined application of VEGF and PDGF as treatment for traumatic spinal cord injury, with the aim to reduce secondary degeneration by promotion of angiogenesis. Immediately after hemisection of the spinal cord in the rat we delivered VEGF and PDGF and to the injury site. One and 3 months later the size of the lesion was significantly smaller in the treated group compared to controls, and there was significantly reduced gliosis surrounding the lesion. There was no significant effect of the treatment on blood vessel density, although there was a significant reduction in the numbers of macrophages/microglia surrounding the lesion, and a shift in the distribution of morphological and immunological phenotypes of these inflammatory cells. VEGF and PDGF delivered singly exacerbated secondary degeneration, increasing the size of the lesion cavity. These results demonstrate a novel therapeutic intervention for SCI, and reveal an unanticipated synergy for these growth factors whereby they modulated inflammatory processes and created a microenvironment conducive to axon preservation/sprouting.

Leadership practices of Kuwaiti Secondary School Principals for embedding ICT

Globalisation and the emergence of knowledge-based economies have forced many countries to reform their education system. The enhancement of human capital to meet modern day demands of a knowledge economy, and equip the new generation with the capacity to meet the challenges of the 21st Century has become a priority. This change is particularly necessary in economies typical of countries, such as Kuwait, which have been dependent on the exploitation of non-renewable natural resources. Transiting from a resource-based economy to an economy based on knowledge and intellectual skills poses a key challenge for an education system. Significant in the development of this new economy has been the expansion of Information Communication Technology (ICT). In education, in particular, ICT is a tool for transforming the education setting. However, transformation is only successful where there are effective change management strategies and appropriate leadership. At the school level, rapid changes have affected the role that principals take particularly in relation to leading the change process. Therefore, this study investigated the leadership practices of school principals for embedding ICT into schools. The case study assessed two Kuwaiti secondary schools; both schools had well established ICT programs. The mode of data collection used a mixed-methods design, to address the purpose of the study, namely, to examine the leadership practices of school principals when managing the change processes associated with embedding ICT in the context of Kuwait. A theoretical model of principal leadership, developed, from the literature, documented and analysed the practices of the respective school principals. The study used the following five data sources: (a) face to face interviews (with each school principal), and two focus group interviews (with five teachers and five students, from each school); (b) school documents (related to the implementation and embedding of ICT); (c) one survey (of all teachers in each school); (d) an open-ended questionnaire (of participating principals and teachers); and (e) the observation of ICT activities (PD ICT activities and instruction meetings). The study revealed a range of strategies used by the principals and aligned with the theoretical perspective. However, these strategies needed to be refined and selectively used to fit the Kuwait context, both culturally and organisationally. The principals of Schools A and B employed three key strategies to maximise the impact on the teaching staff incorporating ICT into their teaching and learning practices. These strategies were: (a) encouragement for teaching staff to implement ICT in their teaching; (b) support to meet the material and human needs of teaching staff using ICT; and (c) provision of instructions and guidance for teaching staff in how and why such behaviours and practices should be performed. The strategies provided the basic leadership practices required to construct a successful ICT embedded implementation process. Hence, a revised model of leadership that has applicability in the adoption of ICT in Kuwait was developed. The findings provide a better understanding of how a school principal’s leadership practices impact upon the ICT embedding process. Hence, the outcome of this study informs emerging countries, which are also undergoing major change related to ICT, for example, other members of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf. From an educational perspective, this knowledge has the potential to support ICT-based learning environments that will help educational practitioners to effectively integrate ICT into teaching and learning that will facilitate students’ ICT engagement, and prepare them for the ICT development challenges that are associated with the new economy; this is achieved by increasing students’ knowledge and performance. Further, the study offers practical strategies that have been shown to work for school principals leading ICT implementation in Kuwait. These strategies include how to deal with the shortage in schools’ budgets, and the promotion of the ICT vision, as well as developing approaches to build collaborative culture in the schools.

Broadening horizons : an emerging research agenda modelling design led innovation across secondary education

A re-examination of design education at all levels is needed to ensure global economic competitiveness and social and environmental sustainment. This paper presents an emerging research agenda modelling design led innovation approaches from the business sector to secondary education curriculum. To do this, a review of literature is provided and current knowledge gaps surrounding design education are detailed. A regional secondary school design immersion program is outlined as a future research case study using action research. A framework and recommendations for developing and delivering pedagogical approaches for 21st century skill outcomes in secondary education are briefly introduced and future research objectives are overviewed and discussed.

An integrated approach to professional development in secondary schools

Following the implementation of the National Professional Standards for Teachers, all teachers in Australia will be required to undertake 30 hours per year of professional development (PD) to maintain their registration. However, defining what constitutes effective PD is complex and often contested. This paper looks at a case study in Queensland, Australia, where a high school worked collaboratively with a university lecturer to deliver effective whole-school professional development. The lecturer acted as an external change agent, working closely with the principal and staff to build a relationship of trust and to develop a strategy for the delivery of PD on-site. This case highlights how partnerships between teachers and teacher educators combined with a willing school leader can provide positive opportunities for collaborative, sustainable, professional growth and learning.

One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Near-Wall Turbulent Pressure Diffusion Modeling and Influence in Three-Dimensional Secondary Flows

The purpose of this paper is to develop a second-moment closure with a near-wall turbulent pressure diffusion model for three-dimensional complex flows, and to evaluate the influence of the turbulent diffusion term on the prediction of detached and secondary flows. A complete turbulent diffusion model including a near-wall turbulent pressure diffusion closure for the slow part was developed based on the tensorial form of Lumley and included in a re-calibrated wall-normal-free Reynolds-stress model developed by Gerolymos and Vallet. The proposed model was validated against several one-, two, and three-dimensional complex flows.