Homegardening as a panacea : a case study of South Tarawa

The Republic of Kiribati is a small, highly infertile Pacific Island nation and is one of the most challenging locations to attempt to support dense urban populations. Kiribati, like other nations in the Pacific, faces an urban future where food insecurity, unemployment, waste management and malnutrition will become increasing issues. Homegardening is suggested as one way to address many of these problems. However, the most recent study on agriculture production in urban centres in Kiribati shows that, in general, intensive cultivation of homegardens is not a common practice. This disparity between theory and practice creates an opportunity to re-examine homegardening in Kiribati and, more broadly, in the Pacific. This paper examines the practice of homegardening in urban centres in Kiribati and explores reasons why change has or has not occurred through interviews with homegardeners and government/donor representives. Results show that homegardening has increased significantly in the past five years, largely because of the promotion of homegardens and organic composting systems by donor organisations. While findings further endorse homegardening as an excellent theoretical solution to many of the problems that confront urban settlements in Kiribati and the Pacific, it raises additional questions regarding the continuation of homegarden schemes beyond donor support programmes.

A multiple-control fuzzy vault

We introduce multiple-control fuzzy vaults allowing generalised threshold, compartmented and multilevel access structure. The presented schemes enable many useful applications employing multiple users and/or multiple locking sets. Introducing the original single control fuzzy vault of Juels and Sudan we identify several similarities and differences between their vault and secret sharing schemes which influence how best to obtain working generalisations. We design multiple-control fuzzy vaults suggesting applications using biometric credentials as locking and unlocking values. Furthermore we assess the security of our obtained generalisations for insider/ outsider attacks and examine the access-complexity for legitimate vault owners.

Econometric analysis of stuctural systems with permanent and transitory shocks

This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identification of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the influential work of Blanchard and Quah [1989. The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. The American Economic Review 79, 655–673], and shows that structural equations with known permanent shocks cannot contain error correction terms, thereby freeing up the latter to be used as instruments in estimating their parameters. The approach is illustrated by a re-examination of the identification schemes used by Wickens and Motto [2001. Estimating shocks and impulse response functions. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 371–387], Shapiro and Watson [1988. Sources of business cycle fluctuations. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 3, 111–148], King et al. [1991. Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations. American Economic Review 81, 819–840], Gali [1992. How well does the ISLM model fit postwar US data? Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 709–735; 1999. Technology, employment, and the business cycle: Do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations? American Economic Review 89, 249–271] and Fisher [2006. The dynamic effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks. Journal of Political Economy 114, 413–451].

Droop control of converter interfaced micro sources in rural distributed generation

This paper proposes new droop control methods for load sharing in a rural area with distributed generation. Highly resistive lines, typical of rural low voltage networks, always create a big challenge for conventional droop control. To overcome the conflict between higher feedback gain for better power sharing and system stability in angle droop, two control methods have been proposed. The first method considers no communication among the distributed generators (DGs) and regulates the converter output voltage and angle ensuring proper sharing of load in a system having strong coupling between real and reactive power due to high line resistance. The second method, based on a smattering of communication, modifies the reference output volt-age angle of the DGs depending on the active and reactive power flow in the lines connected to point of common coupling (PCC). It is shown that with the second proposed control method, an economical and minimum communication system can achieve significant improvement in load sharing. The difference in error margin between proposed control schemes and a more costly high bandwidth communication system is small and the later may not be justified considering the increase in cost. The proposed control shows stable operation of the system for a range of operating conditions while ensuring satisfactory load sharing.

Multi-sensor tracking using a scalable condensation filter

Surveillance and tracking systems typically use a single colour modality for their input. These systems work well in controlled conditions but often fail with low lighting, shadowing, smoke, dust, unstable backgrounds or when the foreground object is of similar colouring to the background. With advances in technology and manufacturing techniques, sensors that allow us to see into the thermal infrared spectrum are becoming more affordable. By using modalities from both the visible and thermal infrared spectra, we are able to obtain more information from a scene and overcome the problems associated with using visible light only for surveillance and tracking. Thermal images are not affected by lighting or shadowing and are not overtly affected by smoke, dust or unstable backgrounds. We propose and evaluate three approaches for fusing visual and thermal images for person tracking. We also propose a modified condensation filter to track and aid in the fusion of the modalities. We compare the proposed fusion schemes with using the visual and thermal domains on their own, and demonstrate that significant improvements can be achieved by using multiple modalities.

Multi-spectral fusion for surveillance systems

Surveillance systems such as object tracking and abandoned object detection systems typically rely on a single modality of colour video for their input. These systems work well in controlled conditions but often fail when low lighting, shadowing, smoke, dust or unstable backgrounds are present, or when the objects of interest are a similar colour to the background. Thermal images are not affected by lighting changes or shadowing, and are not overtly affected by smoke, dust or unstable backgrounds. However, thermal images lack colour information which makes distinguishing between different people or objects of interest within the same scene difficult. ----- By using modalities from both the visible and thermal infrared spectra, we are able to obtain more information from a scene and overcome the problems associated with using either modality individually. We evaluate four approaches for fusing visual and thermal images for use in a person tracking system (two early fusion methods, one mid fusion and one late fusion method), in order to determine the most appropriate method for fusing multiple modalities. We also evaluate two of these approaches for use in abandoned object detection, and propose an abandoned object detection routine that utilises multiple modalities. To aid in the tracking and fusion of the modalities we propose a modified condensation filter that can dynamically change the particle count and features used according to the needs of the system. ----- We compare tracking and abandoned object detection performance for the proposed fusion schemes and the visual and thermal domains on their own. Testing is conducted using the OTCBVS database to evaluate object tracking, and data captured in-house to evaluate the abandoned object detection. Our results show that significant improvement can be achieved, and that a middle fusion scheme is most effective.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles UAVs attitude, height, motion estimation and control using visual systems

This paper presents an implementation of an aircraft pose and motion estimator using visual systems as the principal sensor for controlling an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) or as a redundant system for an Inertial Measure Unit (IMU) and gyros sensors. First, we explore the applications of the unified theory for central catadioptric cameras for attitude and heading estimation, explaining how the skyline is projected on the catadioptric image and how it is segmented and used to calculate the UAV’s attitude. Then we use appearance images to obtain a visual compass, and we calculate the relative rotation and heading of the aerial vehicle. Additionally, we show the use of a stereo system to calculate the aircraft height and to measure the UAV’s motion. Finally, we present a visual tracking system based on Fuzzy controllers working in both a UAV and a camera pan and tilt platform. Every part is tested using the UAV COLIBRI platform to validate the different approaches, which include comparison of the estimated data with the inertial values measured onboard the helicopter platform and the validation of the tracking schemes on real flights.

A proposed qualitative framework for heterogeneous burning of metallic materials : the 'melting rate triangle'

This paper presents a proposed qualitative framework to discuss the heterogeneous burning of metallic materials, through parameters and factors that influence the melting rate of the solid metallic fuel (either in a standard test or in service). During burning, the melting rate is related to the burning rate and is therefore an important parameter for describing and understanding the burning process, especially since the melting rate is commonly recorded during standard flammability testing for metallic materials and is incorporated into many relative flammability ranking schemes. However, whilst the factors that influence melting rate (such as oxygen pressure or specimen diameter) have been well characterized, there is a need for an improved understanding of how these parameters interact as part of the overall melting and burning of the system. Proposed here is the ‘Melting Rate Triangle’, which aims to provide this focus through a conceptual framework for understanding how the melting rate (of solid fuel) is determined and regulated during heterogeneous burning. In the paper, the proposed conceptual model is shown to be both (a) consistent with known trends and previously observed results, and (b)capable of being expanded to incorporate new data. Also shown are examples of how the Melting Rate Triangle can improve the interpretation of flammability test results. Slusser and Miller previously published an ‘Extended Fire Triangle’ as a useful conceptual model of ignition and the factors affecting ignition, providing industry with a framework for discussion. In this paper it is shown that a ‘Melting Rate Triangle’ provides a similar qualitative framework for burning, leading to an improved understanding of the factors affecting fire propagation and extinguishment.

Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

Building a successful partnership to increase affordable rental housing supply in Queensland

Accessibility to housing for low to moderate income groups in Australia has been experiencing a severe decline since 2001. On the supply side, the public sector has been reducing its commitment to the direct provision of public housing. Despite high demand for affordable housing, there has been limited supply generated by non-government housing providers. One possible solution to promote an increase in affordable housing supply, like other infrastructure, is through the development of multi-stakeholder partnerships and private financing. This research aims to identify current issues underlying decision-making criteria for building multi-stakeholder partnerships to deliver affordable housing projects. It also investigates strategies for minimising risk and ensuring the financial outcomes of these partnership arrangements. A mix of qualitative in-depth interviews and quantitative surveys has been used as the main method to explore stakeholder experiences regarding their involvement in partnership arrangements in the affordable housing sector in Queensland. Two sets of interviews were conducted following an exploratory pilot study: one set in 2003-2004 and the other in 2007-2008. There were nineteen respondents representing government, private and not-for-profit organisations in the first stage interviews and surveys. The second stage interviews were focussed on twenty-two housing providers in South East Queensland. Initial analyses have been conducted using thematic and statistical analyses. This study extends the use of existing decision making tools and combines the use of a Soft System Framework to analyse the ideal state questionnaires using qualitative thematic analysis. Soft System Methodology (SSM) has been used to analyse this unstructured complex problem by using systematic thinking to develop a conceptual model and carrying it to the real world situations to solve the problem. This research found that the diversity of stakeholder capability and their level of risk acceptance will allow partnerships to develop the best synergies and a degree of collaboration which achieves the required financial return within acceptable risk parameters. However, some of the negativity attached to future commitment to such partnerships has been found to be the anticipation of a worse outcome than that expected from independent action. Many interviewees agree that housing providers' fear of financial risk and community rejection has been central to dampening their enthusiasm for entering such investment projects. The creation of a mixed-use development structure will mitigate both risk and return as the commercial income will subsidise the affordable housing development and will normalise concentration of marginalised low-income people who live in a prime location with an award winning design. In addition, tenant support schemes and rent-to-buy incentive programs will encourage them to secure their tenancies and significantly reduce the risk of rent arrears and property damage. There is also a breakthrough investment vehicle offered by the social developer which sells the non-physical but financial product to individual and institutional investors to mitigate further financial risk. Finally, this study recommends modification of the current value-for-money framework in favour of broader partnership arrangements which are more closely aligned with risk minimisation strategies.

A multicast routing scheme for efficient safety message dissemination in VANET

Vehicular ad hoc network (VANET) is a wireless ad hoc network that operates in a vehicular environment to provide communication between vehicles. VANET can be used by a diverse range of applications to improve road safety. Cooperative collision warning system (CCWS) is one of the safety applications that can provide situational awareness and warning to drivers by exchanging safety messages between cooperative vehicles. Currently, the routing strategies for safety message dissemination in CCWS are scoped broadcast. However, the broadcast schemes are not efficient as a warning message is sent to a large number of vehicles in the area, rather than only the endangered vehicles. They also cannot prioritize the receivers based on their critical time to avoid collision. This paper presents a more efficient multicast routing scheme that can reduce unnecessary transmissions and also use adaptive transmission range. The multicast scheme involves methods to identify an abnormal vehicle, the vehicles that may be endangered by the abnormal vehicle, and the latest time for each endangered vehicle to receive the warning message in order to avoid the danger. We transform this multicast routing problem into a delay-constrained minimum Steiner tree problem. Therefore, we can use existing algorithms to solve the problem. The advantages of our multicast routing scheme are mainly its potential to support various road traffic scenarios, to optimize the wireless channel utilization, and to prioritize the receivers.

On the usage of labels and icons in business process modeling

The value of business process models is dependent not only on the choice of graphical elements in the model, but also on their annotation with additional textual and graphical information. This research discusses the use of text and icons for labeling the graphical constructs in a process model. We use two established verb classification schemes to examine the choice of activity labels in process modeling practice. Based on our findings, we synthesize a set of twenty-five activity label categories. We propose a systematic approach for graphically representing these label categories through the use of graphical icons, such that the resulting process models are easier and more readily understandable by end users. Our findings contribute to an ongoing stream of research investigating the practice of process modeling and thereby contribute to the body of knowledge about conceptual modeling quality overall.

Sequential decision fusion for controlled detection errors

Information fusion in biometrics has received considerable attention. The architecture proposed here is based on the sequential integration of multi-instance and multi-sample fusion schemes. This method is analytically shown to improve the performance and allow a controlled trade-off between false alarms and false rejects when the classifier decisions are statistically independent. Equations developed for detection error rates are experimentally evaluated by considering the proposed architecture for text dependent speaker verification using HMM based digit dependent speaker models. The tuning of parameters, n classifiers and m attempts/samples, is investigated and the resultant detection error trade-off performance is evaluated on individual digits. Results show that performance improvement can be achieved even for weaker classifiers (FRR-19.6%, FAR-16.7%). The architectures investigated apply to speaker verification from spoken digit strings such as credit card numbers in telephone or VOIP or internet based applications.

An evaluation of current and future botnet defenses

Botnets are large networks of compromised machines under the control of a bot master. These botnets constantly evolve their defences to allow the continuation of their malicious activities. The constant development of new botnet mitigation strategies and their subsequent defensive countermeasures has lead to a technological arms race, one which the bot masters have significant incentives to win. This dissertation analyzes the current and future states of the botnet arms race by introducing a taxonomy of botnet defences and a simulation framework for evaluating botnet techniques. The taxonomy covers current botnet techniques and highlights possible future techniques for further analysis under the simulation framework. This framework allows the evaluation of the effect techniques such as reputation systems and proof of work schemes have on the resources required to disable a peer-to-peer botnet. Given the increase in the resources required, our results suggest that the prospects of eliminating the botnet threat are limited.

Fuzzy associative memory for humanoid robot joint control

Traditional approaches to joint control required accurate modelling of the system dynamic of the plant in question. Fuzzy Associative Memory (FAM) control schemes allow adequate control without a model of the system to be controlled. This paper presents a FAM based joint controller implemented on a humanoid robot. An empirically tuned PI velocity control loop is augmented with this feed forward FAM, with considerable reduction in joint position error achieved online and with minimal additional computational overhead.