Developing a research method to test a new first-order decision making model for the procurement of public sector major infrastructure

Given global demand for new infrastructure, governments face substantial challenges in funding new infrastructure and simultaneously delivering Value for Money (VfM). The paper begins with an update on a key development in a new early/first-order procurement decision making model that deploys production cost/benefit theory and theories concerning transaction costs from the New Institutional Economics, in order to identify a procurement mode that is likely to deliver the best ratio of production costs and transaction costs to production benefits, and therefore deliver superior VfM relative to alternative procurement modes. In doing so, the new procurement model is also able to address the uncertainty concerning the relative merits of Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) and non-PPP procurement approaches. The main aim of the paper is to develop competition as a dependent variable/proxy for VfM and a hypothesis (overarching proposition), as well as developing a research method to test the new procurement model. Competition reflects both production costs and benefits (absolute level of competition) and transaction costs (level of realised competition) and is a key proxy for VfM. Using competition as a proxy for VfM, the overarching proposition is given as: When the actual procurement mode matches the predicted (theoretical) procurement mode (informed by the new procurement model), then actual competition is expected to match potential competition (based on actual capacity). To collect data to test this proposition, the research method that is developed in this paper combines a survey and case study approach. More specifically, data collection instruments for the surveys to collect data on actual procurement, actual competition and potential competition are outlined. Finally, plans for analysing this survey data are briefly mentioned, along with noting the planned use of analytical pattern matching in deploying the new procurement model and in order to develop the predicted (theoretical) procurement mode.

Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation

Gradient-based approaches to direct policy search in reinforcement learning have received much recent attention as a means to solve problems of partial observability and to avoid some of the problems associated with policy degradation in value-function methods. In this paper we introduce GPOMDP, a simulation-based algorithm for generating a biased estimate of the gradient of the average reward in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) controlled by parameterized stochastic policies. A similar algorithm was proposed by Kimura, Yamamura, and Kobayashi (1995). The algorithm's chief advantages are that it requires storage of only twice the number of policy parameters, uses one free parameter β ∈ [0,1) (which has a natural interpretation in terms of bias-variance trade-off), and requires no knowledge of the underlying state. We prove convergence of GPOMDP, and show how the correct choice of the parameter β is related to the mixing time of the controlled POMDP. We briefly describe extensions of GPOMDP to controlled Markov chains, continuous state, observation and control spaces, multiple-agents, higher-order derivatives, and a version for training stochastic policies with internal states. In a companion paper (Baxter, Bartlett, & Weaver, 2001) we show how the gradient estimates generated by GPOMDP can be used in both a traditional stochastic gradient algorithm and a conjugate-gradient procedure to find local optima of the average reward. ©2001 AI Access Foundation and Morgan Kaufmann Publishers. All rights reserved.

Bounded parameter Markov Decision Processes with average reward criterion

Bounded parameter Markov Decision Processes (BMDPs) address the issue of dealing with uncertainty in the parameters of a Markov Decision Process (MDP). Unlike the case of an MDP, the notion of an optimal policy for a BMDP is not entirely straightforward. We consider two notions of optimality based on optimistic and pessimistic criteria. These have been analyzed for discounted BMDPs. Here we provide results for average reward BMDPs. We establish a fundamental relationship between the discounted and the average reward problems, prove the existence of Blackwell optimal policies and, for both notions of optimality, derive algorithms that converge to the optimal value function.

Robust designs for Poisson regression models

We consider the problem of how to construct robust designs for Poisson regression models. An analytical expression is derived for robust designs for first-order Poisson regression models where uncertainty exists in the prior parameter estimates. Given certain constraints in the methodology, it may be necessary to extend the robust designs for implementation in practical experiments. With these extensions, our methodology constructs designs which perform similarly, in terms of estimation, to current techniques, and offers the solution in a more timely manner. We further apply this analytic result to cases where uncertainty exists in the linear predictor. The application of this methodology to practical design problems such as screening experiments is explored. Given the minimal prior knowledge that is usually available when conducting such experiments, it is recommended to derive designs robust across a variety of systems. However, incorporating such uncertainty into the design process can be a computationally intense exercise. Hence, our analytic approach is explored as an alternative.

Numerical methods for second-order stochastic differential equations

We seek numerical methods for second‐order stochastic differential equations that reproduce the stationary density accurately for all values of damping. A complete analysis is possible for scalar linear second‐order equations (damped harmonic oscillators with additive noise), where the statistics are Gaussian and can be calculated exactly in the continuous‐time and discrete‐time cases. A matrix equation is given for the stationary variances and correlation for methods using one Gaussian random variable per timestep. The only Runge–Kutta method with a nonsingular tableau matrix that gives the exact steady state density for all values of damping is the implicit midpoint rule. Numerical experiments, comparing the implicit midpoint rule with Heun and leapfrog methods on nonlinear equations with additive or multiplicative noise, produce behavior similar to the linear case.

Application of higher order spectra to identify epileptic EEG

Epilepsy is characterized by the spontaneous and seemingly unforeseeable occurrence of seizures, during which the perception or behavior of patients is disturbed. An automatic system that detects seizure onsets would allow patients or the people near them to take appropriate precautions, and could provide more insight into this phenomenon. Various methods have been proposed to predict the onset of seizures based on EEG recordings. The use of nonlinear features motivated by the higher order spectra (HOS) has been reported to be a promising approach to differentiate between normal, background (pre-ictal) and epileptic EEG signals. In this work, we made a comparative study of the performance of Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers using the features derived from HOS and from the power spectrum. Results show that the selected HOS based features achieve 93.11% classification accuracy compared to 88.78% with features derived from the power spectrum for a GMM classifier. The SVM classifier achieves an improvement from 86.89% with features based on the power spectrum to 92.56% with features based on the bispectrum.

Pattern recognition using invariants defined from higher order spectra : 2-D image inputs

A new algorithm for extracting features from images for object recognition is described. The algorithm uses higher order spectra to provide desirable invariance properties, to provide noise immunity, and to incorporate nonlinearity into the feature extraction procedure thereby allowing the use of simple classifiers. An image can be reduced to a set of 1D functions via the Radon transform, or alternatively, the Fourier transform of each 1D projection can be obtained from a radial slice of the 2D Fourier transform of the image according to the Fourier slice theorem. A triple product of Fourier coefficients, referred to as the deterministic bispectrum, is computed for each 1D function and is integrated along radial lines in bifrequency space. Phases of the integrated bispectra are shown to be translation- and scale-invariant. Rotation invariance is achieved by a regrouping of these invariants at a constant radius followed by a second stage of invariant extraction. Rotation invariance is thus converted to translation invariance in the second step. Results using synthetic and actual images show that isolated, compact clusters are formed in feature space. These clusters are linearly separable, indicating that the nonlinearity required in the mapping from the input space to the classification space is incorporated well into the feature extraction stage. The use of higher order spectra results in good noise immunity, as verified with synthetic and real images. Classification of images using the higher order spectra-based algorithm compares favorably to classification using the method of moment invariants

Shape discrimination using invariants defined from higher-order spectra

An approach to pattern recognition using invariant parameters based on higher-order spectra is presented. In particular, bispectral invariants are used to classify one-dimensional shapes. The bispectrum, which is translation invariant, is integrated along straight lines passing through the origin in bifrequency space. The phase of the integrated bispectrum is shown to be scale- and amplification-invariant. A minimal set of these invariants is selected as the feature vector for pattern classification. Pattern recognition using higher-order spectral invariants is fast, suited for parallel implementation, and works for signals corrupted by Gaussian noise. The classification technique is shown to distinguish two similar but different bolts given their one-dimensional profiles

A general procedure for the derivation of principal domains of higher-order spectra

A general procedure to determine the principal domain (i.e., nonredundant region of computation) of any higher-order spectrum is presented, using the bispectrum as an example. The procedure is then applied to derive the principal domain of the trispectrum of a real-valued, stationary time series. These results are easily extended to compute the principal domains of other higher-order spectra

Position, rotation, and scale invariant recognition of images using higher-order spectra

A new approach to recognition of images using invariant features based on higher-order spectra is presented. Higher-order spectra are translation invariant because translation produces linear phase shifts which cancel. Scale and amplification invariance are satisfied by the phase of the integral of a higher-order spectrum along a radial line in higher-order frequency space because the contour of integration maps onto itself and both the real and imaginary parts are affected equally by the transformation. Rotation invariance is introduced by deriving invariants from the Radon transform of the image and using the cyclic-shift invariance property of the discrete Fourier transform magnitude. Results on synthetic and actual images show isolated, compact clusters in feature space and high classification accuracies