Mathematical modelling of gas production and compositional shift of a CSG (coal seam gas) field: Local model development

In this work we discuss the development of a mathematical model to predict the shift in gas composition observed over time from a producing CSG (coal seam gas) well, and investigate the effect that physical properties of the coal seam have on gas production. A detailed (local) one-dimensional, two-scale mathematical model of a coal seam has been developed. The model describes the competitive adsorption and desorption of three gas species (CH4, CO2 and N2) within a microscopic, porous coal matrix structure. The (diffusive) flux of these gases between the coal matrices (microscale) and a cleat network (macroscale) is accounted for in the model. The cleat network is modelled as a one-dimensional, volume averaged, porous domain that extends radially from a central well. Diffusive and advective transport of the gases occurs within the cleat network, which also contains liquid water that can be advectively transported. The water and gas phases are assumed to be immiscible. The driving force for the advection in the gas and liquid phases is taken to be a pressure gradient with capillarity also accounted for. In addition, the relative permeabilities of the water and gas phases are considered as functions of the degree of water saturation.

Interleukin-23 mediates the intestinal response to microbial β-1,3-glucan and the development of spondyloarthritis pathology in SKG mice

Objective Spondyloarthritides (SpA) occur in 1% of the population and include ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and arthropathy of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), with characteristic spondylitis, arthritis, enthesitis, and IBD. Genetic studies implicate interleukin-23 (IL-23) receptor signaling in the development of SpA and IBD, and IL-23 overexpression in mice is sufficient for enthesitis, driven by entheseal-resident T cells. However, in genetically prone individuals, it is not clear where IL-23 is produced and how it drives the SpA syndrome, including IBD or subclinical gut inflammation of AS. Moreover, it is unclear why specific tissue involvement varies between patients with SpA. We undertook this study to determine the location of IL-23 production and its role in SpA pathogenesis in BALB/c ZAP-70W163C-mutant (SKG) mice injected intraperitoneally with β-1,3-glucan (curdlan). Methods Eight weeks after curdlan injection in wild-type or IL-17A-/- SKG or BALB/c mice, pathology was scored in tissue sections. Mice were treated with anti-IL-23 or anti-IL-22. Cytokine production and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress were determined in affected organs. Results In curdlan-treated SKG mice, arthritis, enthesitis, and ileitis were IL-23 dependent. Enthesitis was specifically dependent on IL-17A and IL-22. IL-23 was induced in the ileum, where it amplified ER stress, goblet cell dysfunction, and proinflammatory cytokine production. IL-17A was pathogenic, while IL-22 was protective against ileitis. IL-22+CD3- innate-like cells were increased in lamina propria mononuclear cells of ileitis-resistant BALB/c mice, which developed ileitis after curdlan injection and anti-IL-22. Conclusion In response to systemic β-1,3-glucan, intestinal IL-23 provokes local mucosal dysregulation and cytokines driving the SpA syndrome, including IL-17/IL-22-dependent enthesitis. Innate IL-22 production promotes ileal tolerance.

Mathematical modeling for improved greenhouse gas balances, agro-ecosystems, and policy development: Lessons from the Australian experience

If the land sector is to make significant contributions to mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in coming decades, it must do so while concurrently expanding production of food and fiber. In our view, mathematical modeling will be required to provide scientific guidance to meet this challenge. In order to be useful in GHG mitigation policy measures, models must simultaneously meet scientific, software engineering, and human capacity requirements. They can be used to understand GHG fluxes, to evaluate proposed GHG mitigation actions, and to predict and monitor the effects of specific actions; the latter applications require a change in mindset that has parallels with the shift from research modeling to decision support. We compare and contrast 6 agro-ecosystem models (FullCAM, DayCent, DNDC, APSIM, WNMM, and AgMod), chosen because they are used in Australian agriculture and forestry. Underlying structural similarities in the representations of carbon flows though plants and soils in these models are complemented by a diverse range of emphases and approaches to the subprocesses within the agro-ecosystem. None of these agro-ecosystem models handles all land sector GHG fluxes, and considerable model-based uncertainty exists for soil C fluxes and enteric methane emissions. The models also show diverse approaches to the initialisation of model simulations, software implementation, distribution, licensing, and software quality assurance; each of these will differentially affect their usefulness for policy-driven GHG mitigation prediction and monitoring. Specific requirements imposed on the use of models by Australian mitigation policy settings are discussed, and areas for further scientific development of agro-ecosystem models for use in GHG mitigation policy are proposed.

Development and validation of a multilevel model for predicting workload under routine and nonroutine conditions in an air traffic management center

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a model capable of predicting variability in the mental workload experienced by frontline operators under routine and nonroutine conditions. Background: Excess workload is a risk that needs to be managed in safety-critical industries. Predictive models are needed to manage this risk effectively yet are difficult to develop. Much of the difficulty stems from the fact that workload prediction is a multilevel problem. Method: A multilevel workload model was developed in Study 1 with data collected from an en route air traffic management center. Dynamic density metrics were used to predict variability in workload within and between work units while controlling for variability among raters. The model was cross-validated in Studies 2 and 3 with the use of a high-fidelity simulator. Results: Reported workload generally remained within the bounds of the 90% prediction interval in Studies 2 and 3. Workload crossed the upper bound of the prediction interval only under nonroutine conditions. Qualitative analyses suggest that nonroutine events caused workload to cross the upper bound of the prediction interval because the controllers could not manage their workload strategically. Conclusion: The model performed well under both routine and nonroutine conditions and over different patterns of workload variation. Application: Workload prediction models can be used to support both strategic and tactical workload management. Strategic uses include the analysis of historical and projected workflows and the assessment of staffing needs. Tactical uses include the dynamic reallocation of resources to meet changes in demand.

Development of a novel experimental model to investigate the influence of mechanics on bone healing

This dissertation proposed a novel experimental model combining a defect configuration with an active instrumented fixation device to investigate the influence of mechanics on bone healing. The proposed defect configuration aimed to minimise physiological loading within an experimental fracture gap and the instrumented fixator was used for the application of controlled displacements and in vivo stiffness monitoring of the healing process. This thesis has provided a novel approach to advance current knowledge and understanding of mechanobiology, which has been limited in previous experimental models.

Psychiatric design : Using a salutogenic model for the development and management of mental health facilities

The prevailing model of psychiatric facility design does not fulfil its potential in supporting the healing process. A salutogenic approach can improve coherence and foster meaning, will actually improve mental health outcomes, not only manage patient behaviour.

Development of a transient gradient enhanced non local continuum damage mechanics model for masonry

Due to the advent of varied types of masonry systems a comprehensive failure mechanism of masonry essential for the understanding of its behaviour is impossible to be determined from experimental testing. As masonry is predominantly used in wall structures a biaxial stress state dominates its failure mechanism. Biaxial testing will therefore be necessary for each type of masonry, which is expensive and time consuming. A computational method would be advantageous; however masonry is complex to model which requires advanced computational modelling methods. This thesis has formulated a damage mechanics inspired modelling method and has shown that the method effectively determines the failure mechanisms and deformation characteristics of masonry under biaxial states of loading.

Inflammation-driven bone formation in a mouse model of ankylosing spondylitis: Sequential not parallel processes

Background Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is an immune-mediated arthritis particularly targeting the spine and pelvis and is characterised by inflammation, osteoproliferation and frequently ankylosis. Current treatments that predominately target inflammatory pathways have disappointing efficacy in slowing disease progression. Thus, a better understanding of the causal association and pathological progression from inflammation to bone formation, particularly whether inflammation directly initiates osteoproliferation, is required. Methods The proteoglycan-induced spondylitis (PGISp) mouse model of AS was used to histopathologically map the progressive axial disease events, assess molecular changes during disease progression and define disease progression using unbiased clustering of semi-quantitative histology. PGISp mice were followed over a 24-week time course. Spinal disease was assessed using a novel semi-quantitative histological scoring system that independently evaluated the breadth of pathological features associated with PGISp axial disease, including inflammation, joint destruction and excessive tissue formation (osteoproliferation). Matrix components were identified using immunohistochemistry. Results Disease initiated with inflammation at the periphery of the intervertebral disc (IVD) adjacent to the longitudinal ligament, reminiscent of enthesitis, and was associated with upregulated tumor necrosis factor and metalloproteinases. After a lag phase, established inflammation was temporospatially associated with destruction of IVDs, cartilage and bone. At later time points, advanced disease was characterised by substantially reduced inflammation, excessive tissue formation and ectopic chondrocyte expansion. These distinct features differentiated affected mice into early, intermediate and advanced disease stages. Excessive tissue formation was observed in vertebral joints only if the IVD was destroyed as a consequence of the early inflammation. Ectopic excessive tissue was predominantly chondroidal with chondrocyte-like cells embedded within collagen type II- and X-rich matrix. This corresponded with upregulation of mRNA for cartilage markers Col2a1, sox9 and Comp. Osteophytes, though infrequent, were more prevalent in later disease. Conclusions The inflammation-driven IVD destruction was shown to be a prerequisite for axial disease progression to osteoproliferation in the PGISp mouse. Osteoproliferation led to vertebral body deformity and fusion but was never seen concurrent with persistent inflammation, suggesting a sequential process. The findings support that early intervention with anti-inflammatory therapies will be needed to limit destructive processes and consequently prevent progression of AS.