Important omitted spatial variables in safety models: Understanding contributing crash causes at intersections

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causation—rests upon the pursuit of numerous lines of inquiry. The research community has focused on analytical methods development (negative binomial specifications, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might think of different lines of inquiry in terms of ‘low lying fruit’—areas of inquiry that might provide significant improvements in understanding crash causation. It is the contention of this research that omitted variable bias caused by the exclusion of important variables is an important line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant ability to better understand contributing factors to crashes. This study—believed to represent a unique contribution to the safety literature—develops and examines the role of a sizeable set of spatial variables in intersection crash occurrence. In addition to commonly considered traffic and geometric variables, examined spatial factors include local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools. The results indicate that inclusion of these factors results in significant improvement in model explanatory power, and the results also generally agree with expectation. The research illuminates the importance of spatial variables in safety research and also the negative consequences of their omissions.

A simultaneous equations model of crash frequency by collision type for rural intersections

Safety at roadway intersections is of significant interest to transportation professionals due to the large number of intersections in transportation networks, the complexity of traffic movements at these locations that leads to large numbers of conflicts, and the wide variety of geometric and operational features that define them. A variety of collision types including head-on, sideswipe, rear-end, and angle crashes occur at intersections. While intersection crash totals may not reveal a site deficiency, over exposure of a specific crash type may reveal otherwise undetected deficiencies. Thus, there is a need to be able to model the expected frequency of crashes by collision type at intersections to enable the detection of problems and the implementation of effective design strategies and countermeasures. Statistically, it is important to consider modeling collision type frequencies simultaneously to account for the possibility of common unobserved factors affecting crash frequencies across crash types. In this paper, a simultaneous equations model of crash frequencies by collision type is developed and presented using crash data for rural intersections in Georgia. The model estimation results support the notion of the presence of significant common unobserved factors across crash types, although the impact of these factors on parameter estimates is found to be rather modest.

Non-linear oscillations assessment of the distribution static compensator operating in voltage control mode

This article deals with the non-linear oscillations assessment of a distribution static comensator ooperating in voltage control mode using the bifurcation theory. A mathematical model of the distribution static compensator in the voltage control mode to carry out the bifurcation analysis is derived. The stabiity regions in the Thevein equivalent plane are computed. In addition, the stability regions in the control gains space, as well as the contour lines for different Floquet multipliers are computed. The AC and DC capacitor impacts on the stability are analyzed through the bifurcation theory. The observations are verified through simulaation studies. The computation of the stability region allows the assessment of the stable operating zones for a power system that includes a distribution static compensator operating in the voltage mode.

Parallel linear system solution and its application to railway power network simulation

The Streaming SIMD extension (SSE) is a special feature embedded in the Intel Pentium III and IV classes of microprocessors. It enables the execution of SIMD type operations to exploit data parallelism. This article presents improving computation performance of a railway network simulator by means of SSE. Voltage and current at various points of the supply system to an electrified railway line are crucial for design, daily operation and planning. With computer simulation, their time-variations can be attained by solving a matrix equation, whose size mainly depends upon the number of trains present in the system. A large coefficient matrix, as a result of congested railway line, inevitably leads to heavier computational demand and hence jeopardizes the simulation speed. With the special architectural features of the latest processors on PC platforms, significant speed-up in computations can be achieved.

A parallel computation of power system equations

Streaming SIMD Extensions (SSE) is a unique feature embedded in the Pentium III and P4 classes of microprocessors. By fully exploiting SSE, parallel algorithms can be implemented on a standard personal computer and a theoretical speedup of four can be achieved. In this paper, we demonstrate the implementation of a parallel LU matrix decomposition algorithm for solving power systems network equations with SSE and discuss advantages and disadvantages of this approach.

SSE based parallel solution for power systems network equations

Streaming SIMD Extensions (SSE) is a unique feature embedded in the Pentium III class of microprocessors. By fully exploiting SSE, parallel algorithms can be implemented on a standard personal computer and a theoretical speedup of four can be achieved. In this paper, we demonstrate the implementation of a parallel LU matrix decomposition algorithm for solving power systems network equations with SSE and discuss advantages and disadvantages of this approach.

A parallel solution to linear systems

Streaming SIMD Extensions (SSE) is a unique feature embedded in the Pentium III and IV classes of microprocessors. By fully exploiting SSE, parallel algorithms can be implemented on a standard personal computer and a theoretical speedup of four can be achieved. In this paper, we demonstrate the implementation of a parallel LU matrix decomposition algorithm for solving linear systems with SSE and discuss advantages and disadvantages of this approach based on our experimental study.

Wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods for complex process models

Many industrial processes and systems can be modelled mathematically by a set of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). Finding a solution to such a PDF model is essential for system design, simulation, and process control purpose. However, major difficulties appear when solving PDEs with singularity. Traditional numerical methods, such as finite difference, finite element, and polynomial based orthogonal collocation, not only have limitations to fully capture the process dynamics but also demand enormous computation power due to the large number of elements or mesh points for accommodation of sharp variations. To tackle this challenging problem, wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods have been recently developed with successful applications to a fixedbed adsorption column model. Our investigation has shown that recent advances in wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods have the potential to be adopted for solving more complicated dynamic system models. This chapter will highlight the successful applications of these new methods in solving complex models of simulated-moving-bed (SMB) chromatographic processes. A SMB process is a distributed parameter system and can be mathematically described by a set of partial/ordinary differential equations and algebraic equations. These equations are highly coupled; experience wave propagations with steep front, and require significant numerical effort to solve. To demonstrate the numerical computing power of the wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods, a single column chromatographic process modelled by a Transport-Dispersive-Equilibrium linear model is investigated first. Numerical solutions from the upwind-1 finite difference, wavelet-collocation, and high resolution methods are evaluated by quantitative comparisons with the analytical solution for a range of Peclet numbers. After that, the advantages of the wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods are further demonstrated through applications to a dynamic SMB model for an enantiomers separation process. This research has revealed that for a PDE system with a low Peclet number, all existing numerical methods work well, but the upwind finite difference method consumes the most time for the same degree of accuracy of the numerical solution. The high resolution method provides an accurate numerical solution for a PDE system with a medium Peclet number. The wavelet collocation method is capable of catching up steep changes in the solution, and thus can be used for solving PDE models with high singularity. For the complex SMB system models under consideration, both the wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods are good candidates in terms of computation demand and prediction accuracy on the steep front. The high resolution methods have shown better stability in achieving steady state in the specific case studied in this Chapter.

Parallel solution for railway power network simulation

The Streaming SIMD extension (SSE) is a special feature that is available in the Intel Pentium III and P4 classes of microprocessors. As its name implies, SSE enables the execution of SIMD (Single Instruction Multiple Data) operations upon 32-bit floating-point data therefore, performance of floating-point algorithms can be improved. In electrified railway system simulation, the computation involves the solving of a huge set of simultaneous linear equations, which represent the electrical characteristic of the railway network at a particular time-step and a fast solution for the equations is desirable in order to simulate the system in real-time. In this paper, we present how SSE is being applied to the railway network simulation.

Comparing charge transport predictions for a ternary electrolyte using the Maxwell–Stefan and Nernst–Planck equations

In this work, we investigate and compare the Maxwell–Stefan and Nernst–Planck equations for modeling multicomponent charge transport in liquid electrolytes. Specifically, we consider charge transport in the Li+/I−/I3−/ACN ternary electrolyte originally found in dye-sensitized solar cells. We employ molecular dynamics simulations to obtain the Maxwell–Stefan diffusivities for this electrolyte. These simulated diffusion coefficients are used in a multicomponent charge transport model based on the Maxwell– Stefan equations, and this is compared to a Nernst–Planck based model which employs binary diffusion coefficients sourced from the literature. We show that significant differences between the electrolyte concentrations at electrode interfaces, as predicted by the Maxwell–Stefan and Nernst–Planck models, can occur. We find that these differences are driven by a pressure term that appears in the Maxwell–Stefan equations. We also investigate what effects the Maxwell–Stefan diffusivities have on the simulated charge transport. By incorporating binary diffusivities found in the literature into the Maxwell–Stefan framework, we show that the simulated transient concentration profiles depend on the diffusivities; however, the simulated equilibrium profiles remain unaffected.

An enriched radial point interpolation method (e-RPIM) for analysis of crack tip fields

In this paper, an enriched radial point interpolation method (e-RPIM) is developed the for the determination of crack tip fields. In e-RPIM, the conventional RBF interpolation is novelly augmented by the suitable trigonometric basis functions to reflect the properties of stresses for the crack tip fields. The performance of the enriched RBF meshfree shape functions is firstly investigated to fit different surfaces. The surface fitting results have proven that, comparing with the conventional RBF shape function, the enriched RBF shape function has: (1) a similar accuracy to fit a polynomial surface; (2) a much better accuracy to fit a trigonometric surface; and (3) a similar interpolation stability without increase of the condition number of the RBF interpolation matrix. Therefore, it has proven that the enriched RBF shape function will not only possess all advantages of the conventional RBF shape function, but also can accurately reflect the properties of stresses for the crack tip fields. The system of equations for the crack analysis is then derived based on the enriched RBF meshfree shape function and the meshfree weak-form. Several problems of linear fracture mechanics are simulated using this newlydeveloped e-RPIM method. It has demonstrated that the present e-RPIM is very accurate and stable, and it has a good potential to develop a practical simulation tool for fracture mechanics problems.

Linear stern waves in finite depth channels

This paper formulates an analytically tractable problem for the wake generated by a long flat bottom ship by considering the steady free surface flow of an inviscid, incompressible fluid emerging from beneath a semi-infinite rigid plate. The flow is considered to be irrotational and two-dimensional so that classical potential flow methods can be exploited. In addition, it is assumed that the draft of the plate is small compared to the depth of the channel. The linearised problem is solved exactly using a Fourier transform and the Wiener-Hopf technique, and it is shown that there is a family of subcritical solutions characterised by a train of sinusoidal waves on the downstream free surface. The amplitude of these waves decreases as the Froude number increases. Supercritical solutions are also obtained, but, in general, these have infinite vertical velocities at the trailing edge of the plate. Consideration of further terms in the expansions suggests a way of canceling the singularity for certain values of the Froude number.

An enriched radial point interpolation method (e-RPIM) for analysis of crack tip fields

In this paper, an enriched radial point interpolation method (e-RPIM) is developed the for the determination of crack tip fields. In e-RPIM, the conventional RBF interpolation is novelly augmented by the suitable trigonometric basis functions to reflect the properties of stresses for the crack tip fields. The performance of the enriched RBF meshfree shape functions is firstly investigated to fit different surfaces. The surface fitting results have proven that, comparing with the conventional RBF shape function, the enriched RBF shape function has: (1) a similar accuracy to fit a polynomial surface; (2) a much better accuracy to fit a trigonometric surface; and (3) a similar interpolation stability without increase of the condition number of the RBF interpolation matrix. Therefore, it has proven that the enriched RBF shape function will not only possess all advantages of the conventional RBF shape function, but also can accurately reflect the properties of stresses for the crack tip fields. The system of equations for the crack analysis is then derived based on the enriched RBF meshfree shape function and the meshfree weak-form. Several problems of linear fracture mechanics are simulated using this newlydeveloped e-RPIM method. It has demonstrated that the present e-RPIM is very accurate and stable, and it has a good potential to develop a practical simulation tool for fracture mechanics problems.

Validation Gating for Non-Linear Non-Gaussian Target Tracking

This paper develops a general theory of validation gating for non-linear non-Gaussian mod- els. Validation gates are used in target tracking to cull very unlikely measurement-to-track associa- tions, before remaining association ambiguities are handled by a more comprehensive (and expensive) data association scheme. The essential property of a gate is to accept a high percentage of correct associ- ations, thus maximising track accuracy, but provide a su±ciently tight bound to minimise the number of ambiguous associations. For linear Gaussian systems, the ellipsoidal vali- dation gate is standard, and possesses the statistical property whereby a given threshold will accept a cer- tain percentage of true associations. This property does not hold for non-linear non-Gaussian models. As a system departs from linear-Gaussian, the ellip- soid gate tends to reject a higher than expected pro- portion of correct associations and permit an excess of false ones. In this paper, the concept of the ellip- soidal gate is extended to permit correct statistics for the non-linear non-Gaussian case. The new gate is demonstrated by a bearing-only tracking example.

Asset life prediction and maintenance decision-making using a non-linear non-Gaussian state space model

Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.