Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Can audio-visual speech recognition outperform acoustically enhanced speech recognition in automotive environment?

The use of visual features in the form of lip movements to improve the performance of acoustic speech recognition has been shown to work well, particularly in noisy acoustic conditions. However, whether this technique can outperform speech recognition incorporating well-known acoustic enhancement techniques, such as spectral subtraction, or multi-channel beamforming is not known. This is an important question to be answered especially in an automotive environment, for the design of an efficient human-vehicle computer interface. We perform a variety of speech recognition experiments on a challenging automotive speech dataset and results show that synchronous HMM-based audio-visual fusion can outperform traditional single as well as multi-channel acoustic speech enhancement techniques. We also show that further improvement in recognition performance can be obtained by fusing speech-enhanced audio with the visual modality, demonstrating the complementary nature of the two robust speech recognition approaches.

Attenuation of muscle damage by preconditioning with muscle hyperthermia

This study investigated the hypothesis that muscle damage would be attenuated in muscles subjected to passive hyperthermia 1 day prior to exercise. Fifteen male students performed 24 maximal eccentric actions of the elbow flexors with one arm; the opposite arm performed the same exercise 2-4 weeks later. The elbow flexors of one arm received a microwave diathermy treatment that increased muscle temperature to over 40°C, 16-20 h prior to the exercise. The contralateral arm acted as an untreated control. Maximal voluntary isometric contraction strength (MVC), range of motion (ROM), upper arm circumference, muscle soreness, plasma creatine kinase activity and myoglobin concentration were measured 1 day prior to exercise, immediately before and after exercise, and daily for 4 days following exercise. Changes in the criterion measures were compared between conditions (treatment vs. control) using a two-way repeated measures ANOVA with a significance level of P < 0.05. All measures changed significantly following exercise, but the treatment arm showed a significantly faster recovery of MVC, a smaller change in ROM, and less muscle soreness compared with the control arm. However, the protective effect conferred by the diathermy treatment was significantly less effective compared with that seen in the second bout performed 4-6 weeks after the initial bout by a subgroup of the subjects (n = 11) using the control arm. These results suggest that passive hyperthermia treatment 1 day prior to eccentric exercise-induced muscle damage has a prophylactic effect, but the effect is not as strong as the repeated bout effect. © Springer-Verlag 2006.

DEM test, visagraph eye movement recordings, and reading ability in children

Purpose. To determine how Developmental Eye Movement (DEM) test results relate to reading eye movement patterns recorded with the Visagraph in visually normal children, and whether DEM results and recorded eye movement patterns relate to standardized reading achievement scores. Methods. Fifty-nine school-age children (age = 9.7 ± 0.6 years) completed the DEM test and had eye movements recorded with the Visagraph III test while reading for comprehension. Monocular visual acuity in each eye and random dot stereoacuity were measured and standardized scores on independently administered reading comprehension tests [reading progress test (RPT)] were obtained. Results. Children with slower DEM horizontal and vertical adjusted times tended to have slower reading rates with the Visagraph (r = -0.547 and -0.414 respectively). Although a significant correlation was also found between the DEM ratio and Visagraph reading rate (r = -0.368), the strength of the relationship was less than that between DEM horizontal adjusted time and reading rate. DEM outcome scores were not significantly associated with RPT scores. When the relative contribution of reading ability (RPT) and DEM scores was accounted for in multivariate analysis, DEM outcomes were not significantly associated with Visagraph reading rate. RPT scores were associated with Visagraph outcomes of duration of fixations (r = -0.403) and calculated reading rate (r = 0.366) but not with DEM outcomes. Conclusions.DEM outcomes can identify children whose Visagraph recorded eye movement patterns show slow reading rates. However, when reading ability is accounted for, DEM outcomes are a poor predictor of reading rate. Visagraph outcomes of duration of fixation and reading rate relate to standardized reading achievement scores; however, DEM results do not. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Optometry.

Supermarket consumers and gender differences relating to their perceived importance levels of store characteristics

Family grocery shopping is the accepted domain of women; however, modern social and demographic movements challenge traditional gender roles with in the family structure. Men now engage in grocery shopping more freely and frequently, yet the essence of male shopping behaviour and beliefs present an opportunity for examination. This research identifies specific store characteristics, investigates the perceived importance of those characteristics and explores gender, age and income differences that may exist. A random sample collection methodology involving 280 male and female grocery shoppers was selected. Results indicated significant statistical differences between genders based on perceptions of importance of most store characteristics. Overall, male grocery shoppers considered supermarket store characteristics less important than female shoppers. Income did not affect shoppers’ level of associated importance; however respondents’ age, education and occupation influenced perceptions of price, promotions and cleanliness.

Visual voice activity detection using frontal versus profile views

Visual activity detection of lip movements can be used to overcome the poor performance of voice activity detection based solely in the audio domain, particularly in noisy acoustic conditions. However, most of the research conducted in visual voice activity detection (VVAD) has neglected addressing variabilities in the visual domain such as viewpoint variation. In this paper we investigate the effectiveness of the visual information from the speaker’s frontal and profile views (i.e left and right side views) for the task of VVAD. As far as we are aware, our work constitutes the first real attempt to study this problem. We describe our visual front end approach and the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) based VVAD framework, and report the experimental results using the freely available CUAVE database. The experimental results show that VVAD is indeed possible from profile views and we give a quantitative comparison of VVAD based on frontal and profile views The results presented are useful in the development of multi-modal Human Machine Interaction (HMI) using a single camera, where the speaker’s face may not always be frontal.

Thinking feeling

In “Thinking Feeling” a camera zooms in and around an animated constellation of words. There are ten words, each repeated one hundred times. The individual words independently pulse and orbit an invisible nucleus. The slow movements of the words and camera are reinforced by an airy, synthesised soundtrack. Over time, various phrasal combinations form and dissolve on screen. A bit like forcing oneself to sleep, “Thinking Feeling” picks at that fine line between controlling and letting go of thoughts. It creates small mantric loops that slip in and out of focus, playing with the liminal zones between the conscious and unconscious, between language and sensation, between gripping and releasing, and between calm and irritation.

Detecting gesture force peaks for intuitive interaction

With the release of the Nintendo Wii in 2006, the use of haptic force gestures has become a very popular form of input for interactive entertainment. However, current gesture recognition techniques utilised in Nintendo Wii games fall prey to a lack of control when it comes to recognising simple gestures. This paper presents a simple gesture recognition technique called Peak Testing which gives greater control over gesture interaction. This recognition technique locates force peaks in continuous force data (provided by a gesture device such as the Wiimote) and then cancels any peaks which are not meant for input. Peak Testing is therefore technically able to identify movements in any direction. This paper applies this recognition technique to control virtual instruments and investigates how users respond to this interaction. The technique is then explored as the basis for a robust way to navigate menus with a simple flick of the wrist. We propose that this flick-form of interaction could be a very intuitive way to navigate Nintendo Wii menus instead of the current pointer techniques implemented.

The global division of labour and the division in global labour

Since the 1980s the locus of manufacturing and some services have moved to countries of the Global South. Liberalization of trade and investment has added two billion people to world labour supply and brought workers everywhere into intense competition with each other. Under orthodox neoliberal and neoclassical approaches free trade and open investment should benefit all countries and lead to convergence. However considerable differences in wages and working hours exist between workers of the Global North and those of the Global South. The organising question for the thesis is why workers in different countries but the same industries get different wages. Empirical evidence reviewed in the thesis shows that productivity does not explain these wage differences and that workers in some parts of the South are more productive than workers in the North. Part of the thesis examines the usefulness of explanations drawn from Marxist, institutionalist and global commodity chain approaches. There is a long established argument in Marxist and neo-Marxist writings that differences between North and South result from imperialism and the exercise of power. This is the starting point to review ways of understanding divisions between workers as the outcome of a global class structure. In turn, a fault line is postulated between productive and unproductive labour that largely replicates the division between the Global North and the Global South. Workers and their organizations need shared actions if they are to resist global competition and wage disparities. Solidarity has been the clarion of progressive movements from the Internationals of the early C19th through to the current Global Unions and International Confederation of Trade Unions (ICTU). The thesis examines how nationalism and particular interests have undermined solidarity and reviews the major implications for current efforts to establish and advance a global labour position.

Quantification of particle emission characteristics and development of an emission model for use in transport microenvironments affected by traffic emissions

Vehicle emitted particles are of significant concern based on their potential to influence local air quality and human health. Transport microenvironments usually contain higher vehicle emission concentrations compared to other environments, and people spend a substantial amount of time in these microenvironments when commuting. Currently there is limited scientific knowledge on particle concentration, passenger exposure and the distribution of vehicle emissions in transport microenvironments, partially due to the fact that the instrumentation required to conduct such measurements is not available in many research centres. Information on passenger waiting time and location in such microenvironments has also not been investigated, which makes it difficult to evaluate a passenger’s spatial-temporal exposure to vehicle emissions. Furthermore, current emission models are incapable of rapidly predicting emission distribution, given the complexity of variations in emission rates that result from changes in driving conditions, as well as the time spent in driving condition within the transport microenvironment. In order to address these scientific gaps in knowledge, this work conducted, for the first time, a comprehensive statistical analysis of experimental data, along with multi-parameter assessment, exposure evaluation and comparison, and emission model development and application, in relation to traffic interrupted transport microenvironments. The work aimed to quantify and characterise particle emissions and human exposure in the transport microenvironments, with bus stations and a pedestrian crossing identified as suitable research locations representing a typical transport microenvironment. Firstly, two bus stations in Brisbane, Australia, with different designs, were selected to conduct measurements of particle number size distributions, particle number and PM2.5 concentrations during two different seasons. Simultaneous traffic and meteorological parameters were also monitored, aiming to quantify particle characteristics and investigate the impact of bus flow rate, station design and meteorological conditions on particle characteristics at stations. The results showed higher concentrations of PN20-30 at the station situated in an open area (open station), which is likely to be attributed to the lower average daily temperature compared to the station with a canyon structure (canyon station). During precipitation events, it was found that particle number concentration in the size range 25-250 nm decreased greatly, and that the average daily reduction in PM2.5 concentration on rainy days compared to fine days was 44.2 % and 22.6 % at the open and canyon station, respectively. The effect of ambient wind speeds on particle number concentrations was also examined, and no relationship was found between particle number concentration and wind speed for the entire measurement period. In addition, 33 pairs of average half-hourly PN7-3000 concentrations were calculated and identified at the two stations, during the same time of a day, and with the same ambient wind speeds and precipitation conditions. The results of a paired t-test showed that the average half-hourly PN7-3000 concentrations at the two stations were not significantly different at the 5% confidence level (t = 0.06, p = 0.96), which indicates that the different station designs were not a crucial factor for influencing PN7-3000 concentrations. A further assessment of passenger exposure to bus emissions on a platform was evaluated at another bus station in Brisbane, Australia. The sampling was conducted over seven weekdays to investigate spatial-temporal variations in size-fractionated particle number and PM2.5 concentrations, as well as human exposure on the platform. For the whole day, the average PN13-800 concentration was 1.3 x 104 and 1.0 x 104 particle/cm3 at the centre and end of the platform, respectively, of which PN50-100 accounted for the largest proportion to the total count. Furthermore, the contribution of exposure at the bus station to the overall daily exposure was assessed using two assumed scenarios of a school student and an office worker. It was found that, although the daily time fraction (the percentage of time spend at a location in a whole day) at the station was only 0.8 %, the daily exposure fractions (the percentage of exposures at a location accounting for the daily exposure) at the station were 2.7% and 2.8 % for exposure to PN13-800 and 2.7% and 3.5% for exposure to PM2.5 for the school student and the office worker, respectively. A new parameter, “exposure intensity” (the ratio of daily exposure fraction and the daily time fraction) was also defined and calculated at the station, with values of 3.3 and 3.4 for exposure to PN13-880, and 3.3 and 4.2 for exposure to PM2.5, for the school student and the office worker, respectively. In order to quantify the enhanced emissions at critical locations and define the emission distribution in further dispersion models for traffic interrupted transport microenvironments, a composite line source emission (CLSE) model was developed to specifically quantify exposure levels and describe the spatial variability of vehicle emissions in traffic interrupted microenvironments. This model took into account the complexity of vehicle movements in the queue, as well as different emission rates relevant to various driving conditions (cruise, decelerate, idle and accelerate), and it utilised multi-representative segments to capture the accurate emission distribution for real vehicle flow. This model does not only helped to quantify the enhanced emissions at critical locations, but it also helped to define the emission source distribution of the disrupted steady flow for further dispersion modelling. The model then was applied to estimate particle number emissions at a bidirectional bus station used by diesel and compressed natural gas fuelled buses. It was found that the acceleration distance was of critical importance when estimating particle number emission, since the highest emissions occurred in sections where most of the buses were accelerating and no significant increases were observed at locations where they idled. It was also shown that emissions at the front end of the platform were 43 times greater than at the rear of the platform. The CLSE model was also applied at a signalled pedestrian crossing, in order to assess increased particle number emissions from motor vehicles when forced to stop and accelerate from rest. The CLSE model was used to calculate the total emissions produced by a specific number and mix of light petrol cars and diesel passenger buses including 1 car travelling in 1 direction (/1 direction), 14 cars / 1 direction, 1 bus / 1 direction, 28 cars / 2 directions, 24 cars and 2 buses / 2 directions, and 20 cars and 4 buses / 2 directions. It was found that the total emissions produced during stopping on a red signal were significantly higher than when the traffic moved at a steady speed. Overall, total emissions due to the interruption of the traffic increased by a factor of 13, 11, 45, 11, 41, and 43 for the above 6 cases, respectively. In summary, this PhD thesis presents the results of a comprehensive study on particle number and mass concentration, together with particle size distribution, in a bus station transport microenvironment, influenced by bus flow rates, meteorological conditions and station design. Passenger spatial-temporal exposure to bus emitted particles was also assessed according to waiting time and location along the platform, as well as the contribution of exposure at the bus station to overall daily exposure. Due to the complexity of the interrupted traffic flow within the transport microenvironments, a unique CLSE model was also developed, which is capable of quantifying emission levels at critical locations within the transport microenvironment, for the purpose of evaluating passenger exposure and conducting simulations of vehicle emission dispersion. The application of the CLSE model at a pedestrian crossing also proved its applicability and simplicity for use in a real-world transport microenvironment.

The role of gender and framing in shaping community activists' perceptions of environmental risks

campaign to oppose projects proposed in their local community. The social constructionist perspective advocates that these motivations are driven by activists’ interpretation of reality, such that activists will assign multiple meanings to and frame environmental issues in a way that reflects their view of reality. Past research suggest that these are also influenced by patterns of shared meaning and interpretation that develop over time in protest movements that shape activists’ perceptions of the environmental risks and impacts associated with construction activity. This paper explores the role of gender distinctions in shaping perceptions of environmental risk and how this affects their framing of the environmental, social, cultural/ historical impacts associated with a construction project. Using Snow and Benford’s (1988) 3-prong analytical tool for framing: diagnostic framing, prognostic framing and motivational framing, this paper presents findings from the content analysis of in-depth interviews of 24 activists protesting against a highly controversial housing project in the greater Sydney metropolitan area. The research adopts a single case study approach, and is particularly significant as it investigates an extensive and on-going community-based protest campaign (dating back almost 20 years) that has generated the longest standing 24-hour community picket in Australia.

The effect of simulated astigmatic refractive error on reading performance

Background: Few studies have specifically investigated the functional effects of uncorrected astigmatism on measures of reading fluency. This information is important to provide evidence for the development of clinical guidelines for the correction of astigmatism. Methods: Participants included 30 visually normal, young adults (mean age 21.7 ± 3.4 years). Distance and near visual acuity and reading fluency were assessed with optimal spectacle correction (baseline) and for two levels of astigmatism, 1.00DC and 2.00DC, at two axes (90° and 180°) to induce both against-the-rule (ATR) and with-the-rule (WTR) astigmatism. Reading and eye movement fluency were assessed using standardized clinical measures including the test of Discrete Reading Rate (DRR), the Developmental Eye Movement (DEM) test and by recording eye movement patterns with the Visagraph (III) during reading for comprehension. Results: Both distance and near acuity were significantly decreased compared to baseline for all of the astigmatic lens conditions (p < 0.001). Reading speed with the DRR for N16 print size was significantly reduced for the 2.00DC ATR condition (a reduction of 10%), while for smaller text sizes reading speed was reduced by up to 24% for the 1.00DC ATR and 2.00DC condition in both axis directions (p<0.05). For the DEM, sub-test completion speeds were significantly impaired, with the 2.00DC condition affecting both vertical and horizontal times and the 1.00DC ATR condition affecting only horizontal times (p<0.05). Visagraph reading eye movements were not significantly affected by the induced astigmatism. Conclusions: Induced astigmatism impaired performance on selected tests of reading fluency, with ATR astigmatism having significantly greater effects on performance than did WTR, even for relatively small amounts of astigmatic blur of 1.00DC. These findings have implications for the minimal prescribing criteria for astigmatic refractive errors.

Clinical strategies for the alleviation of contractures from a predictive mathematical model of dermal repair

Hypertrophic scars arise when there is an overproduction of collagen during wound healing. These are often associated with poor regulation of the rate of programmed cell death(apoptosis) of the cells synthesizing the collagen or by an exuberant inflammatory response that prolongs collagen production and increases wound contraction. Severe contractures that occur, for example, after a deep burn can cause loss of function especially if the wound is over a joint such as the elbow or knee. Recently, we have developed a morphoelastic mathematical model for dermal repair that incorporates the chemical, cellular and mechanical aspects of dermal wound healing. Using this model, we examine pathological scarring in dermal repair by first assuming a smaller than usual apoptotic rate for myofibroblasts, and then considering a prolonged inflammatory response, in an attempt to determine a possible optimal intervention strategy to promote normal repair, or terminate the fibrotic scarring response. Our model predicts that in both cases it is best to apply the intervention strategy early in the wound healing response. Further, the earlier an intervention is made, the less aggressive the intervention required. Finally, if intervention is conducted at a late time during healing, a significant intervention is required; however, there is a threshold concentration of the drug or therapy applied, above which minimal further improvement to wound repair is obtained.

Using strategic movement to calibrate a neural compass : a spiking network for tracking head direction in rats and robots

The head direction (HD) system in mammals contains neurons that fire to represent the direction the animal is facing in its environment. The ability of these cells to reliably track head direction even after the removal of external sensory cues implies that the HD system is calibrated to function effectively using just internal (proprioceptive and vestibular) inputs. Rat pups and other infant mammals display stereotypical warm-up movements prior to locomotion in novel environments, and similar warm-up movements are seen in adult mammals with certain brain lesion-induced motor impairments. In this study we propose that synaptic learning mechanisms, in conjunction with appropriate movement strategies based on warm-up movements, can calibrate the HD system so that it functions effectively even in darkness. To examine the link between physical embodiment and neural control, and to determine that the system is robust to real-world phenomena, we implemented the synaptic mechanisms in a spiking neural network and tested it on a mobile robot platform. Results show that the combination of the synaptic learning mechanisms and warm-up movements are able to reliably calibrate the HD system so that it accurately tracks real-world head direction, and that calibration breaks down in systematic ways if certain movements are omitted. This work confirms that targeted, embodied behaviour can be used to calibrate neural systems, demonstrates that ‘grounding’ of modeled biological processes in the real world can reveal underlying functional principles (supporting the importance of robotics to biology), and proposes a functional role for stereotypical behaviours seen in infant mammals and those animals with certain motor deficits. We conjecture that these calibration principles may extend to the calibration of other neural systems involved in motion tracking and the representation of space, such as grid cells in entorhinal cortex.

Finitude (Mallee:Time)

An interactive installation with full body interface, digital projection, multi-touch sensitive screen surfaces, interactive 3D gaming software, motorised dioramas, 4.1 spatial sound & new furniture forms - investigating the cultural dimensions of sustainability through the lens of 'time'. “Time is change, time is finitude. Humans are a finite species. Every decision we make today brings that end closer, or alternatively pushes it further away. Nothing can be neutral”. Tony Fry DETAILS: Finitude (Mallee:Time) is a major new media/sculptural hybrid work premiered in 2011 in version 1 at the Ka-rama Motel for the Mildura Palimpsest #8 ('Collaborators and Saboteurs'). Each participant/viewer lies comfortably on their back on the double bed of Room 22. Directly above them, supported by a wooden structure, not unlike a house frame, is a semi-transparent Perspex screen that displays projected 3D imagery and is simultaneously sensitive to the lightest of finger touches. Depending upon the ever changing qualities of the projected image on this screen the participant can see through its surface to a series of physical dioramas suspended above, lit by subtle LED spotlighting. This diorama consists of a slowly rotating series of physical environments, which also include several animatronic components, allowing the realtime composition of whimsical ‘landscapes’ of both 'real' and 'virtual' media. Through subtle, non-didactic touch-sensitive interactivity the participant then has influence over both the 3D graphic imagery, the physical movements of the diorama and the 4.1 immersive soundscape, creating an uncanny blend of physical and virtual media. Five speakers positioned around the room deliver a rich interactive soundscape that responds both audibly and physically to interactions. VERSION 1, CONTEXT/THEORY: Finitude (Mallee: Time) is Version 1 of a series of presentations during 2012-14. This version has been inspired through a series of recent visits and residencies in the SW Victoria Mallee country. Further drawing on recent writings by post colonial author Paul Carter, the work is envisaged as an evolving ‘personal topography’ of place-discovery. By contrasting and melding readily available generalisations of the Mallee regions’ rational surfaces, climatic maps and ecological systems with what Carter calls “a fine capillary system of interconnected words, places, memories and sensations” generated through my own idiosyncratic research processes, Finitude (Mallee Time) invokes a “dark writing” of place through outside eyes - an approach that avoids concentration upon what 'everyone else knows', to instead imagine and develop a sense how things might be. This basis in re-imagining and re-invention becomes the vehicle for the work’s more fundamental intention - as a meditative re-imagination of 'time' (and region) as finite resources: Towards this end, every object, process and idea in the work is re-thought as having its own ‘time component’ or ‘residue’ that becomes deposited into our 'collective future'. Thought this way Finitude (Mallee Time) suggests the poverty of predominant images of time as ‘mechanism’ to instead envisage time as a plastic cyclical medium that we can each choose to ‘give to’ or ‘take away from’ our future. Put another way - time has become finitude.