The serum resistome of a globally disseminated multidrug resistant uropathogenic Escherichia coli Clone

Escherichia coli ST131 is a globally disseminated, multidrug resistant clone responsible for a high proportion of urinary tract and bloodstream infections. The rapid emergence and successful spread of E. coli ST131 is strongly associated with antibiotic resistance; however, this phenotype alone is unlikely to explain its dominance amongst multidrug resistant uropathogens circulating worldwide in hospitals and the community. Thus, a greater understanding of the molecular mechanisms that underpin the fitness of E. coli ST131 is required. In this study, we employed hyper-saturated transposon mutagenesis in combination with multiplexed transposon directed insertion-site sequencing to define the essential genes required for in vitro growth and the serum resistome (i.e. genes required for resistance to human serum) of E. coli EC958, a representative of the predominant E. coli ST131 clonal lineage. We identified 315 essential genes in E. coli EC958, 231 (73%) of which were also essential in E. coli K-12. The serum resistome comprised 56 genes, the majority of which encode membrane proteins or factors involved in lipopolysaccharide (LPS) biosynthesis. Targeted mutagenesis confirmed a role in serum resistance for 46 (82%) of these genes. The murein lipoprotein Lpp, along with two lipid A-core biosynthesis enzymes WaaP and WaaG, were most strongly associated with serum resistance. While LPS was the main resistance mechanism defined for E. coli EC958 in serum, the enterobacterial common antigen and colanic acid also impacted on this phenotype. Our analysis also identified a novel function for two genes, hyxA and hyxR, as minor regulators of O-antigen chain length. This study offers novel insight into the genetic make-up of E. coli ST131, and provides a framework for future research on E. coli and other Gram-negative pathogens to define their essential gene repertoire and to dissect the molecular mechanisms that enable them to survive in the bloodstream and cause disease.

Molecular characterization of Escherichia coli strains that cause symptomatic and asymptomatic urinary tract infections

The differences between Escherichia coli strains associated with symptomatic and asymptomatic urinary tract infections (UTIs) remain to be properly determined. Here we examined the prevalence of plasmid types and bacteriocins, as well as genetic relatedness, in a defined collection of E. coli strains that cause UTIs. Comparative analysis identified a subgroup of strains with a high number of virulence genes (VGs) and microcins M/H47. We also identified associations between microcin genes, VGs, and specific plasmid types.

Molecular analysis of type 3 fimbrial genes from Escherichia coli, Klebsiella and Citrobacter species

Background Catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) is the most common nosocomial infection in the United States and is caused by a range of uropathogens. Biofilm formation by uropathogens that cause CAUTI is often mediated by cell surface structures such as fimbriae. In this study, we characterised the genes encoding type 3 fimbriae from CAUTI strains of Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Klebsiella oxytoca, Citrobacter koseri and Citrobacter freundii. Results Phylogenetic analysis of the type 3 fimbrial genes (mrkABCD) from 39 strains revealed they clustered into five distinct clades (A-E) ranging from one to twenty-three members. The majority of sequences grouped in clade A, which was represented by the mrk gene cluster from the genome sequenced K. pneumoniae MGH78578. The E. coli and K. pneumoniae mrkABCD gene sequences clustered together in two distinct clades, supporting previous evidence for the occurrence of inter-genera lateral gene transfer. All of the strains examined caused type 3 fimbriae mediated agglutination of tannic acid treated human erythrocytes despite sequence variation in the mrkD-encoding adhesin gene. Type 3 fimbriae deletion mutants were constructed in 13 representative strains and were used to demonstrate a direct role for type 3 fimbriae in biofilm formation. Conclusions The expression of functional type 3 fimbriae is common to many Gram-negative pathogens that cause CAUTI and is strongly associated with biofilm growth. Our data provides additional evidence for the spread of type 3 fimbrial genes by lateral gene transfer. Further work is now required to substantiate the clade structure reported here by examining more strains as well as other bacterial genera that make type 3 fimbriae and cause CAUTI.

Author response to : Brough et al. in response to the recently published article : Lottering,N., MacGregor,D.M.,Barry,M.D.,Reynolds,M.S., Gregory,L.S., 2014. Introducing standardized protocols for anthropological measurement of virtual sub-adult crania using computed tomography 2(1),34–38

Firstly, we would like to thank Ms. Alison Brough and her colleagues for their positive commentary on our published work [1] and their appraisal of our utility of the “off-set plane” protocol for anthropometric analysis. The standardized protocols described in our manuscript have wide applications, ranging from forensic anthropology and paleodemographic research to clinical settings such as paediatric practice and orthopaedic surgical design. We affirm that the use of geometrically based reference tools commonly found in computer aided design (CAD) programs such as Geomagic Design X® are imperative for more automated and precise measurement protocols for quantitative skeletal analysis. Therefore we stand by our recommendation of the use of software such as Amira and Geomagic Design X® in the contexts described in our manuscript...

Boosting the effects of a curriculum based injury prevention program through a school connectedness intervention : final report to NRMA-ACT Road Safety Trust

Injury is the leading cause of death among young people (AIHW, 2008). A primary contributing factor to injury among adolescents is risk taking behaviour, including road related risks such as risky bicycle and motorcycle use and riding with dangerous or drink-drivers. Injury rates increase dramatically throughout adolescence, at the same time as adolescents are becoming more involved in risk taking behaviour. Also throughout this period, adolescents‟ connectedness to school is decreasing (Monahan, Oesterle & Hawkins, 2010; Whitlock, 2004). School connectedness refers to „the extent to which students feel personally accepted, respected, included, and supported by others in the school‟ (Goodenow, 1993, p. 80), and has been repeatedly shown to be a critical protective factor in adolescent development. For example, school connectedness has been shown to be associated with decreased risk taking behaviour, including violence and alcohol and other drug use (e.g., Resnick et al., 1997), as well as with decreased transport risk taking and vehicle related injuries (Chapman et al., accepted April 2011). This project involved the pilot evaluation of a school connectedness intervention (a professional development program for teachers) to reduce adolescent risk taking behaviour and injury. This intervention has been developed for use as a component of the Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) curriculum based injury prevention program for early adolescents. The objectives of this research were to: 1. Implement a trial School Connectedness intervention (professional development program for teachers) in ACT high schools, and evaluate using comparison high schools. 2. Determine whether the School Connectedness program impacts on adolescent risk taking behaviour and associated injuries (particularly transport risks and injuries). 3. Evaluate the process effectiveness of the School Connectedness program.

Meta-analysis of microarray data identifies GAS6 expression as an independent predictor of poor survival in ovarian cancer

Seeking new biomarkers for epithelial ovarian cancer, the fifth most common cause of death from all cancers in women and the leading cause of death from gynaecological malignancies, we performed a meta-analysis of three independent studies and compared the results in regard to clinicopathological parameters. This analysis revealed that GAS6 was highly expressed in ovarian cancer and therefore was selected as our candidate of choice. GAS6 encodes a secreted protein involved in physiological processes including cell proliferation, chemotaxis, and cell survival. We performed immunohistochemistry on various ovarian cancer tissues and found that GAS6 expression was elevated in tumour tissue samples compared to healthy control samples (P < 0.0001). In addition, GAS6 expression was also higher in tumours from patients with residual disease compared to those without. Our data propose GAS6 as an independent predictor of poor survival, suggesting GAS6, both on the mRNA and on the protein level, as a potential biomarker for ovarian cancer. In clinical practice, the staining of a tumour biopsy for GAS6 may be useful to assess cancer prognosis and/or to monitor disease progression.

The quik fix study : a randomised controlled trial of brief interventions for young people with alcohol-related injuries and illnesses accessing emergency department and crisis support care

Background: Alcohol is a major preventable cause of injury, disability and death in young people. Large numbers of young people with alcohol-related injuries and medical conditions present to hospital emergency departments (EDs). Access to brief, efficacious, accessible and cost effective treatment is an international health priority within this age group. While there is growing evidence for the efficacy of brief motivational interviewing (MI) for reducing alcohol use in young people, there is significant scope to increase its impact, and determine if it is the most efficacious and cost effective type of brief intervention available. The efficacy of personality-targeted interventions (PIs) for alcohol misuse delivered individually to young people is yet to be determined or compared to MI, despite growing evidence for school-based PIs. This study protocol describes a randomized controlled trial comparing the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of telephone-delivered MI, PI and an Assessment Feedback/Information (AF/I) only control for reducing alcohol use and related harm in young people. Methods/design: Participants will be 390 young people aged 16 to 25 years presenting to a crisis support service or ED with alcohol-related injuries and illnesses (including severe alcohol intoxication). This single blinded superiority trial randomized young people to (i) 2 sessions of MI; (ii) 2 sessions of a new PI or (iii) a 1 session AF/I only control. Participants are reassessed at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months on the primary outcomes of alcohol use and related problems and secondary outcomes of mental health symptoms, functioning, severity of problematic alcohol use, alcohol injuries, alcohol-related knowledge, coping self-efficacy to resist using alcohol, and cost effectiveness. Discussion: This study will identify the most efficacious and cost-effective telephone-delivered brief intervention for reducing alcohol misuse and related problems in young people presenting to crisis support services or EDs. We expect efficacy will be greatest for PI, followed by MI, and then AF/I at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months on the primary and secondary outcome variables. Telephone-delivered brief interventions could provide a youth-friendly, accessible, efficacious, cost-effective and easily disseminated treatment for addressing the significant public health issue of alcohol misuse and related harm in young people. Trial registration: This trial is registered with the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12613000108718.

Canagliflozin : something new for type 2 diabetes, but is it safe and efficacious?

Evaluation of Inagaki N, Kondo K, Yoshinari T, et al. Efficacy and safety of canagliflozin in Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 12-week study. Diabetes Obes Metab 2013. [Epub ahead of print] and Cefalu WT, Leiter LA, Yoon KH, et al. Efficacy and safety of canagliflozin versus glimepiride in patients with type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled with metformin (CANTATA-SU): 52 week results from a randomized, double-blind, phase 3 non-inferiority trial. Lancet 2013;382:941-50 INTRODUCTION Inhibition of the sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), to promote the excretion of glucose, is a new paradigm in the treatment of type 2 diabetes. AREAS COVERED Canagliflozin is an SGLT2 inhibitor, which has been the subject of two recent clinical trials, which are evaluated. EXPERT OPINION Studies with canagliflozin, in subjects with type 2 diabetes, have shown that its use is associated with reductions in HbA1c and body weight and small reductions in blood pressure and triglycerides, while increasing high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. As monotherapy in Japanese subjects, or in comparison with glimepiride in CANTATA-SU (CANagliflozin Treatment and Trial Analysis versus SUlphonylurea), canagliflozin causes a low incidence of hypoglycemia, and this is an advantage over glimepiride. However, one of the disadvantages with canagliflozin, which was also highlighted in CANTATA-SU, is that canagliflozin can cause urogenital infections, which are not observed with other antidiabetic drugs. The Federal Drug Administration has recently approved canagliflozin for use in type 2 diabetes, while directing that a clinical outcome safety trial be undertaken. We are concerned that canagliflozin has been approved for use in type 2 diabetes prior to a clinical outcome study of efficacy being undertaken and without the outcome of further safety testing.

Heartbeat and economic decisions : observing mental stress among proposers and responders in the ultimatum bargaining game

The ultimatum bargaining game (UBG), a widely used method in experimental economics, clearly demonstrates that motives other than pure monetary reward play a role in human economic decision making. In this study, we explore the behaviour and physiological reactions of both responders and proposers in an ultimatum bargaining game using heart rate variability (HRV), a small and nonintrusive technology that allows observation of both sides of an interaction in a normal experimental economics laboratory environment. We find that low offers by a proposer cause signs of mental stress in both the proposer and the responder; that is, both exhibit high ratios of low to high frequency activity in the HRV spectrum.

The role of university research centres in building road safety capacity : implications for China

In recent decades, highly motorised countries, such as Australia, have witnessed significant improvements in population health through reductions in fatalities and injuries from road traffic crashes. In Australia, concerted efforts have been made to reduce the road trauma burden since road fatalities reached their highest level in in the early 1970s. Since that time, many improvements have been made drawing on various disciplines to reduce the trauma burden (e.g., road and vehicle design, road user education, traffic law enforcement practices and enforcement technologies). While road fatalities have declined significantly since the mid-1970s, road trauma remains a serious public health concern in Australia. China has recently become the largest car market in the world (Ma, Li, Zhou, Duan, & Bishai, 2012). This rapid motorisation has been accompanied by substantial expansion of the road network as well as a large road trauma burden. Road traffic injuries are a major cause of death in China, reported as accounting for one third of all injury-deaths between 2002 and 2006 (Ma et al., 2012). In common with Australia, China has experienced a reported decline in fatalities since 2002 (see Hu, Wen & Baker, 2008). However, there remains a strong need for action in this area as rates of motorisation continue to climb in China. In Australia, a wide range of organisations have contributed to the improvements in road safety including government agencies, professional organisations, advocacy groups and research centres. In particular, Australia has several highly regarded and multi-disciplinary, university-based research centres that work across a range of road safety fields, including engineering, intelligent transportation systems, the psychology of road user behaviour, and traffic law enforcement. Besides conducting high-quality research, these centres fulfil an important advocacy role in promoting safer road use and facilitating collaborations with government and other agencies, at both the national and international level. To illustrate the role of these centres, an overview will be provided of the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety-Queensland (CARRS-Q), which was established in 1996 and has gone on to become a recognised world-leader in road safety and injury prevention research. The Centre’s research findings are used to provide evidence-based recommendations to government and have directly contributed to promoting safer road use in Australia. Since 2006, CARRS-Q has also developed strong collaborative links with various universities and organisations in China to assist in building understanding, connections and capacity to assist in reducing the road trauma burden. References Hu, G., Wen, M., Baker, T. D., & Baker, S. P. (2008). Road-traffic deaths in China, 1985–2005: threat and opportunity. Injury Prevention, 14, 149-153. Ma, S., Li, Q., Zhou, M., Duan, L., & Bishai, D. (2012). Road Traffic Injury in China: A Review of National Data Sources. Traffic Injury Prevention, 13(S1), 57-63.

Burden of depressive disorders by country, sex, age, and year : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Depressive disorders were a leading cause of burden in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990 and 2000 studies. Here, we analyze the burden of depressive disorders in GBD 2010 and present severity proportions, burden by country, region, age, sex, and year, as well as burden of depressive disorders as a risk factor for suicide and ischemic heart disease. Methods and Findings Burden was calculated for major depressive disorder (MDD) and dysthymia. A systematic review of epidemiological data was conducted. The data were pooled using a Bayesian meta-regression. Disability weights from population survey data quantified the severity of health loss from depressive disorders. These weights were used to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Separate DALYs were estimated for suicide and ischemic heart disease attributable to depressive disorders.Depressive disorders were the second leading cause of YLDs in 2010. MDD accounted for 8.2% (5.9%-10.8%) of global YLDs and dysthymia for 1.4% (0.9%-2.0%). Depressive disorders were a leading cause of DALYs even though no mortality was attributed to them as the underlying cause. MDD accounted for 2.5% (1.9%-3.2%) of global DALYs and dysthymia for 0.5% (0.3%-0.6%). There was more regional variation in burden for MDD than for dysthymia; with higher estimates in females, and adults of working age. Whilst burden increased by 37.5% between 1990 and 2010, this was due to population growth and ageing. MDD explained 16 million suicide DALYs and almost 4 million ischemic heart disease DALYs. This attributable burden would increase the overall burden of depressive disorders from 3.0% (2.2%-3.8%) to 3.8% (3.0%-4.7%) of global DALYs. Conclusions GBD 2010 identified depressive disorders as a leading cause of burden. MDD was also a contributor of burden allocated to suicide and ischemic heart disease. These findings emphasize the importance of including depressive disorders as a public-health priority and implementing cost-effective interventions to reduce its burden.Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The burden attributable to mental and substance use disorders as risk factors for suicide : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) identified mental and substance use disorders as the 5th leading contributor of burden in 2010, measured by disability adjusted life years (DALYs). This estimate was incomplete as it excluded burden resulting from the increased risk of suicide captured elsewhere in GBD 2010's mutually exclusive list of diseases and injuries. Here, we estimate suicide DALYs attributable to mental and substance use disorders. Methods Relative-risk estimates of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders and the global prevalence of each disorder were used to estimate population attributable fractions. These were adjusted for global differences in the proportion of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders compared to other causes then multiplied by suicide DALYs reported in GBD 2010 to estimate attributable DALYs (with 95% uncertainty). Results Mental and substance use disorders were responsible for 22.5 million (14.8-29.8 million) of the 36.2 million (26.5-44.3 million) DALYs allocated to suicide in 2010. Depression was responsible for the largest proportion of suicide DALYs (46.1% (28.0%-60.8%)) and anorexia nervosa the lowest (0.2% (0.02%-0.5%)). DALYs occurred throughout the lifespan, with the largest proportion found in Eastern Europe and Asia, and males aged 20-30 years. The inclusion of attributable suicide DALYs would have increased the overall burden of mental and substance use disorders (assigned to them in GBD 2010 as a direct cause) from 7.4% (6.2%-8.6%) to 8.3% (7.1%-9.6%) of global DALYs, and would have changed the global ranking from 5th to 3rd leading cause of burden. Conclusions Capturing the suicide burden attributable to mental and substance use disorders allows for more accurate estimates of burden. More consideration needs to be given to interventions targeted to populations with, or at risk for, mental and substance use disorders as an effective strategy for suicide prevention.

The influence of injury cause, contact-sport participation, and personal knowledge on expectation of outcome from mild traumatic brain injury

Objective: This study investigated the influence of injury cause, contact-sport participation, and prior knowledge of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) on injury beliefs and chronic symptom expectations of mTBI. Method: A total of 185 non-contact-sport players (non-CSPs) and 59 contact-sport players (CSPs) with no history of mTBI were randomly allocated to one of two conditions in which they read either a vignette depicting a sport-related mTBI (mTBIsport) or a motor-vehicle-accident-related mTBI (mTBIMVA). The vignettes were otherwise standardized to convey the same injury parameters (e.g., duration of loss of consciousness). After reading a vignette, participants reported their injury beliefs (i.e., perceptions of injury undesirability, chronicity, and consequences) and their expectations of chronic postconcussion syndrome (PCS) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. Results: Non-CSPs held significantly more negative beliefs and expected greater PTSD symptomatology and greater PCS affective symptomatology from an mTBIMVA vignette thann mTBIsport vignette, but this difference was not found for CSPs. Unlike CSPs, non-CSPs who personally knew someone who had sustained an mTBI expected significantly less PCS symptomatology than those who did not. Despite these different results for non-CSPs and CSPs, overall, contact-sport participation did not significantly affect injury beliefs and symptom expectations from an mTBIsport. Conclusions: Expectations of persistent problems after an mTBI are influenced by factors such as injury cause even when injury parameters are held constant. Personal knowledge of mTBI, but not contact sport participation, may account for some variability in mTBI beliefs and expectations. These factors require consideration when assessing mTBI outcome.

Interpersonal violence : an important risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa

Background Burden of disease estimates for South Africa have highlighted the particularly high rates of injuries related to interpersonal violence compared with other regions of the world, but these figures tell only part of the story. In addition to direct physical injury, violence survivors are at an increased risk of a wide range of psychological and behavioral problems. This study aimed to comprehensively quantify the excess disease burden attributable to exposure to interpersonal violence as a risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa. Methods The World Health Organization framework of interpersonal violence was adapted. Physical injury mortality and disability were categorically attributed to interpersonal violence. In addition, exposure to child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence, subcategories of interpersonal violence, were treated as risk factors for disease and injury using counterfactual estimation and comparative risk assessment methods. Adjustments were made to account for the combined exposure state of having experienced both child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence. Results Of the 17 risk factors included in the South African Comparative Risk Assessment study, interpersonal violence was the second leading cause of healthy years of life lost, after unsafe sex, accounting for 1.7 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) or 10.5% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval: 8.5%-12.5%) in 2000. In women, intimate partner violence accounted for 50% and child sexual abuse for 32% of the total attributable DALYs. Conclusions The implications of our findings are that estimates that include only the direct injury burden seriously underrepresent the full health impact of interpersonal violence. Violence is an important direct and indirect cause of health loss and should be recognized as a priority health problem as well as a human rights and social issue. This study highlights the difficulties in measuring the disease burden from interpersonal violence as a risk factor and the need to improve the epidemiological data on the prevalence and risks for the different forms of interpersonal violence to complete the picture. Given the extent of the burden, it is essential that innovative research be supported to identify social policy and other interventions that address both the individual and societal aspects of violence.

Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.