Benefit cost analysis applied to behavioral and engineering safety countermeasures in San Francisco, California

The state of the practice in safety has advanced rapidly in recent years with the emergence of new tools and processes for improving selection of the most cost-effective safety countermeasures. However, many challenges prevent fair and objective comparisons of countermeasures applied across safety disciplines (e.g. engineering, emergency services, and behavioral measures). These countermeasures operate at different spatial scales, are funded often by different financial sources and agencies, and have associated costs and benefits that are difficult to estimate. This research proposes a methodology by which both behavioral and engineering safety investments are considered and compared in a specific local context. The methodology involves a multi-stage process that enables the analyst to select countermeasures that yield high benefits to costs, are targeted for a particular project, and that may involve costs and benefits that accrue over varying spatial and temporal scales. The methodology is illustrated using a case study from the Geary Boulevard Corridor in San Francisco, California. The case study illustrates that: 1) The methodology enables the identification and assessment of a wide range of safety investment types at the project level; 2) The nature of crash histories lend themselves to the selection of both behavioral and engineering investments, requiring cooperation across agencies; and 3) The results of the cost-benefit analysis are highly sensitive to cost and benefit assumptions, and thus listing and justification of all assumptions is required. It is recommended that a sensitivity analyses be conducted when there is large uncertainty surrounding cost and benefit assumptions.

Thin-film elemental analyses for precise characterization of minerals

The Analytical Electron Microscope (AEM), with which secondary X-ray emission from a thin (<150nm), electron-transparent material is measured, has rapidly become a versatile instrument for qualitative and quantitative elemental analyses of many materials, including minerals. With due regard for sources of error in experimental procedures, it is possible to obtain high spatial resolution (~20nm diameter) and precise elemental analyses (~3% to 5% relative) from many silicate minerals. In addition, by utilizing the orientational dependence of X-ray emission for certain multi-substituted crystal structures, site occupancies for individual elements within a unit cell can be determined though with lower spatial resolution. The relative ease with which many of these compositional data may be obtained depends in part on the nature of the sample, but, in general, is comparable to other solid state analytical techniques such as X-ray diffraction and electron microprobe analysis. However, the improvement in spatial resolution obtained with the AEM (up to two orders of magnitude in analysis diameter) significantly enhances interpretation of fine-grained assemblages in many terrestrial or extraterrestrial rocks.

Microbeam analyses of stratospheric particles

Collections of solid particles from the Earth's stratosphere by high-flying aircraft have been reported since 1965, with the initial primary objective of understanding the nature of the aerosol layer that occurs in the lower stratosphere. With the advent of efficient collection procedures and sophisticated electron- and ion-beam techniques, the primary aim of current stratospheric collections has been to study specific particle types that are extraterrestrial in origin and have survived atmospheric entry processes. The collection program provided by NASA at Johnson Space Center (JSC) has conducted many flights over the past 4 years and retrieved a total of 99 collection surfaces (flags) suitable for detailed study. Most of these collections are part of dedicated flights and have occurred during volcanically quiescent periods, although solid particles from the El Chichon eruptions have also been collected. Over 800 individual particles (or representative samples from larger aggregates) have been picked from these flags, examined in a preliminary fashion by SEM and EDS, and cataloged in a manner suitable for selection and study by the wider scientific community.

Thin-film analyses of silicate standards at 200 kv : the effect of temperature on element loss

Preliminary data is presented on a detailed statistical analysis of k-factor determination for a single class of minerals (amphiboles) which contain a wide range of element concentrations. These amphiboles are homogeneous, contain few (if any) subsolidus microstructures and can be readily prepared for thin film analysis. In previous studies, element loss during the period of irradiation has been assumed negligible for the determination of k-factors. Since this phenomena may be significant for certain mineral systems, we also report on the effect of temperature on k-factor determination for various elements using small probe sizes (approx.20 nm).

A comparison of perceived crash risk among cyclists and drivers in Brisbane

The Queensland Government has implemented strategies promoting a shift from individual car use to active transport, a transition which requires drivers to adapt to sharing the road with increased numbers of people cycling through transport network. For this to occur safely, changes in both road infrastructure and road user expectations and behaviors will be needed. Creating separate cycle infrastructure does not remove the need for cyclists to commence, cross or finish travel on shared roads. Currently intersections are one of the predominant shared road spaces where crashes result in cyclists being injured or killed. This research investigates how Brisbane cyclists and drivers perceive risk when interacting with other road users at intersections. The current study replicates a French study conducted by co-authors Chaurand and Delhomme in 2011 and extends it to assess gender effects which have been reported in other Australian cycling research. An online survey was administered to experienced cyclists and drivers. Participants rated the level of risk they felt when imagining a number of different road situations. Based on the earlier French study it is expected that perceived crash risk will be influenced both by the participant’s mode of travel and the type of interacting vehicle and perceived risk will be greater when the interaction is with a car than a bicycle. It is predicted that risk perception will decrease as the level of experience increases and that male participants will have a higher perception of skill and lower perception of risk than females. The findings of this Queensland study will provide a valuable insight into perceived risk and the traffic behaviours of drivers and cyclists when interacting with other road users and results will be available for presentation at the Congress.

Mapping quantitative trait loci in a wild population using linkage and linkage disequilibrium analyses

Historical information can be used, in addition to pedigree, traits and genotypes, to map quantitative trait locus (QTL) in general populations via maximum likelihood estimation of variance components. This analysis is known as linkage disequilibrium (LD) and linkage mapping, because it exploits both linkage in families and LD at the population level. The search for QTL in the wild population of Soay sheep on St. Kilda is a proof of principle. We analysed the data from a previous study and confirmed some of the QTLs reported. The most striking result was the confirmation of a QTL affecting birth weight that had been reported using association tests but not when using linkage-based analyses. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2010.

A web application to perform linkage disequilibrium and linkage analyses on a computational grid

Motivation: Unravelling the genetic architecture of complex traits requires large amounts of data, sophisticated models and large computational resources. The lack of user-friendly software incorporating all these requisites is delaying progress in the analysis of complex traits. Methods: Linkage disequilibrium and linkage analysis (LDLA) is a high-resolution gene mapping approach based on sophisticated mixed linear models, applicable to any population structure. LDLA can use population history information in addition to pedigree and molecular markers to decompose traits into genetic components. Analyses are distributed in parallel over a large public grid of computers in the UK. Results: We have proven the performance of LDLA with analyses of simulated data. There are real gains in statistical power to detect quantitative trait loci when using historical information compared with traditional linkage analysis. Moreover, the use of a grid of computers significantly increases computational speed, hence allowing analyses that would have been prohibitive on a single computer. © The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Methodological issues in defining aggression for content analyses of sexually explicit material

There exists an important tradition of content analyses of aggression in sexually explicit material. The majority of these analyses use a definition of aggression that excludes consent. This article identifies three problems with this approach. First, it does not distinguish between aggression and some positive acts. Second, it excludes a key element of healthy sexuality. Third, it can lead to heteronormative definitions of healthy sexuality. It would be better to use a definition of aggression such as Baron and Richardson's (1994) in our content analyses, that includes a consideration of consent. A number of difficulties have been identified with attending to consent but this article offers solutions to each of these.

A comprehensive investigation of the risky driving behaviour of young novice drivers

Young novice drivers - that is, drivers aged 16-25 years who are relatively inexperienced in driving on the road and have a novice (Learner, Provisional) driver's licence - have been overrepresented in car crash, injury and fatality statistics around the world for decades. There are numerous persistent characteristics evident in young novice driver crashes, fatalities and offences, including variables relating to the young driver themselves, broader social influences which include their passengers, the car they drive, and when and how they drive, and their risky driving behaviour in particular. Moreover, there are a range of psychosocial factors influencing the behaviour of young novice drivers, including the social influences of parents and peers, and person-related factors such as age-related factors, attitudes, and sensation seeking. Historically, a range of approaches have been developed to manage the risky driving behaviour of young novice drivers. Traditional measures predominantly relying upon education have had limited success in regulating the risky driving behaviour of the young novice driver. In contrast, interventions such as graduated driver licensing (GDL) which acknowledges young novice drivers' limitations - principally pertaining to their chronological and developmental age, and their driving inexperience - have shown to be effective in ameliorating this pervasive public health problem. In practice, GDL is a risk management tool that is designed to reduce driving at risky times (e.g., at night) or in risky driving conditions (e.g., with passengers), while still enabling novice drivers to obtain experience. In this regard, the GDL program in Queensland, Australia, was considerably enhanced in July 2007, and major additions to the program include mandated Learner practice of 100 hours recorded in a logbook, and passenger limits during night driving in the Provisional phase. Road safety researchers have also continued to consider the influential role played by the young driver's psychosocial characteristics, including psychological traits and states. In addition, whilst the majority of road safety user research is epidemiological in nature, contemporary road safety research is increasingly applying psychological and criminological theories. Importantly, such theories not only can guide young novice driver research, they can also inform the development and evaluation of countermeasures targeting their risky driving behaviour. The research is thus designed to explore the self-reported behaviours - and the personal, psychosocial, and structural influences upon the behaviours - of young novice drivers This thesis incorporates three stages of predominantly quantitative research to undertake a comprehensive investigation of the risky driving behaviour of young novices. Risky driving behaviour increases the likelihood of the young novice driver being involved in a crash which may harm themselves or other road users, and deliberate risky driving such as driving in excess of the posted speed limits is the focus of the program of research. The extant literature examining the nature of the risky behaviour of the young novice driver - and the contributing factors for this behaviour - while comprehensive, has not led to the development of a reliable instrument designed specifically to measure the risky behaviour of the young novice driver. Therefore the development and application of such a tool (the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale, or BYNDS) was foremost in the program of research. In addition to describing the driving behaviours of the young novice, a central theme of this program of research was identifying, describing, and quantifying personal, behavioural, and environmental influences upon young novice driver risky behaviour. Accordingly the 11 papers developed from the three stages of research which comprise this thesis are framed within Bandura's reciprocal determinism model which explicitly considers the reciprocal relationship between the environment, the person, and their behaviour. Stage One comprised the foundation research and operationalised quantitative and qualitative methodologies to finalise the instrument used in Stages Two and Three. The first part of Stage One involved an online survey which was completed by 761 young novice drivers who attended tertiary education institutions across Queensland. A reliable instrument for measuring the risky driving behaviour of young novices was developed (the BYNDS) and is currently being operationalised in young novice driver research in progress at the Centre for Injury Research and Prevention in Philadelphia, USA. In addition, regression analyses revealed that psychological distress influenced risky driving behaviour, and the differential influence of depression, anxiety, sensitivity to punishments and rewards, and sensation seeking propensity were explored. Path model analyses revealed that punishment sensitivity was mediated by anxiety and depression; and the influence of depression, anxiety, reward sensitivity and sensation seeking propensity were moderated by the gender of the driver. Specifically, for males, sensation seeking propensity, depression, and reward sensitivity were predictive of self-reported risky driving, whilst for females anxiety was also influential. In the second part of Stage One, 21 young novice drivers participated in individual and small group interviews. The normative influences of parents, peers, and the Police were explicated. Content analysis supported four themes of influence through punishments, rewards, and the behaviours and attitudes of parents and friends. The Police were also influential upon the risky driving behaviour of young novices. The findings of both parts of Stage One informed the research of Stage Two. Stage Two was a comprehensive investigation of the pre-Licence and Learner experiences, attitudes, and behaviours, of young novice drivers. In this stage, 1170 young novice drivers from across Queensland completed an online or paper survey exploring their experiences, behaviours and attitudes as a pre- and Learner driver. The majority of novices did not drive before they were licensed (pre-Licence driving) or as an unsupervised Learner, submitted accurate logbooks, intended to follow the road rules as a Provisional driver, and reported practicing predominantly at the end of the Learner period. The experience of Learners in the enhanced-GDL program were also examined and compared to those of Learner drivers who progressed through the former-GDL program (data collected previously by Bates, Watson, & King, 2009a). Importantly, current-GDL Learners reported significantly more driving practice and a longer Learner period, less difficulty obtaining practice, and less offence detection and crash involvement than Learners in the former-GDL program. The findings of Stage Two informed the research of Stage Three. Stage Three was a comprehensive exploration of the driving experiences, attitudes and behaviours of young novice drivers during their first six months of Provisional 1 licensure. In this stage, 390 of the 1170 young novice drivers from Stage Two completed another survey, and data collected during Stages Two and Three allowed a longitudinal investigation of self-reported risky driving behaviours, such as GDL-specific and general road rule compliance; risky behaviour such as pre-Licence driving, crash involvement and offence detection; and vehicle ownership, paying attention to Police presence, and punishment avoidance. Whilst the majority of Learner and Provisional drivers reported compliance with GDL-specific and general road rules, 33% of Learners and 50% of Provisional drivers reported speeding by 10-20 km/hr at least occasionally. Twelve percent of Learner drivers reported pre-Licence driving, and these drivers were significantly more risky as Learner and Provisional drivers. Ten percent of males and females reported being involved in a crash, and 10% of females and 18% of males had been detected for an offence, within the first six months of independent driving. Additionally, 75% of young novice drivers reported owning their own car within six months of gaining their Provisional driver's licence. Vehicle owners reported significantly shorter Learner periods and more risky driving exposure as a Provisional driver. Paying attention to Police presence on the roads appeared normative for young novice drivers: 91% of Learners and 72% of Provisional drivers reported paying attention. Provisional drivers also reported they actively avoided the Police: 25% of males and 13% of females; 23% of rural drivers and 15% of urban drivers. Stage Three also allowed the refinement of the risky behaviour measurement tool (BYNDS) created in Stage One; the original reliable 44-item instrument was refined to a similarly reliable 36-item instrument. A longitudinal exploration of the influence of anxiety, depression, sensation seeking propensity and reward sensitivity upon the risky behaviour of the Provisional driver was also undertaken using data collected in Stages Two and Three. Consistent with the research of Stage One, structural equation modeling revealed anxiety, reward sensitivity and sensation seeking propensity predicted self-reported risky driving behaviour. Again, gender was a moderator, with only reward sensitivity predicting risky driving for males. A measurement model of Akers' social learning theory (SLT) was developed containing six subscales operationalising the four constructs of differential association, imitation, personal attitudes, and differential reinforcement, and the influence of parents and peers was captured within the items in a number of these constructs. Analyses exploring the nature and extent of the psychosocial influences of personal characteristics (step 1), Akers' SLT (step 2), and elements of the prototype/willingness model (PWM) (step 3) upon self-reported speeding by the Provisional driver in a hierarchical multiple regression model found the following significant predictors: gender (male), car ownership (own car), reward sensitivity (greater sensitivity), depression (greater depression), personal attitudes (more risky attitudes), and speeding (more speeding) as a Learner. The research findings have considerable implications for road safety researchers, policy-makers, mental health professionals and medical practitioners alike. A broad range of issues need to be considered when developing, implementing and evaluating interventions for both the intentional and unintentional risky driving behaviours of interest. While a variety of interventions have been historically utilised, including education, enforcement, rehabilitation and incentives, caution is warranted. A multi-faceted approach to improving novice road safety is more likely to be effective, and new and existing countermeasures should capitalise on the potential of parents, peers and Police to be a positive influence upon the risky behaviour of young novice drivers. However, the efficacy of some interventions remains undetermined at this time. Notwithstanding this caveat, countermeasures such as augmenting and strengthening Queensland's GDL program and targeting parents and adolescents particularly warrant further attention. The findings of the research program suggest that Queensland's current-GDL can be strengthened by increasing compliance of young novice drivers with existing conditions and restrictions. The rates of speeding reported by the young Learner driver are particularly alarming for a number of reasons. The Learner is inexperienced in driving, and travelling in excess of speed limits places them at greater risk as they are also inexperienced in detecting and responding appropriately to driving hazards. In addition, the Learner period should provide the foundation for a safe lifetime driving career, enabling the development and reinforcement of non-risky driving habits. Learners who sped reported speeding by greater margins, and at greater frequencies, when they were able to drive independently. Other strategies could also be considered to enhance Queensland's GDL program, addressing both the pre-Licence adolescent and their parents. Options that warrant further investigation to determine their likely effectiveness include screening and treatment of novice drivers by mental health professionals and/or medical practitioners; and general social skills training. Considering the self-reported pre-licence driving of the young novice driver, targeted education of parents may need to occur before their child obtains a Learner licence. It is noteworthy that those participants who reported risky driving during the Learner phase also were more likely to report risky driving behaviour during the Provisional phase; therefore it appears vital that the development of safe driving habits is encouraged from the beginning of the novice period. General education of parents and young novice drivers should inform them of the considerably-increased likelihood of risky driving behaviour, crashes and offences associated with having unlimited access to a vehicle in the early stages of intermediate licensure. Importantly, parents frequently purchase the car that is used by the Provisional driver, who typically lives at home with their parents, and therefore parents are ideally positioned to monitor the journeys of their young novice driver during this early stage of independent driving. Parents are pivotal in the development of their driving child: they are models who are imitated and are sources of attitudes, expectancies, rewards and punishments; and they provide the most driving instruction for the Learner. High rates of self-reported speeding by Learners suggests that GDL programs specifically consider the nature of supervision during the Learner period, encouraging supervisors to be vigilant to compliance with general and GDL-specific road rules, and especially driving in excess of speed limit. Attitudes towards driving are formed before the adolescent reaches the age when they can be legally licensed. Young novice drivers with risky personal attitudes towards driving reported more risky driving behaviour, suggesting that countermeasures should target such attitudes and that such interventions might be implemented before the adolescent is licensed. The risky behaviours and attitudes of friends were also found to be influential, and given that young novice drivers tend to carry their friends as their passengers, a group intervention such as provided in a school class context may prove more effective. Social skills interventions that encourage the novice to resist the negative influences of their friends and their peer passengers, and to not imitate the risky driving behaviour of their friends, may also be effective. The punishments and rewards anticipated from and administered by friends were also found to influence the self-reported risky behaviour of the young novice driver; therefore young persons could be encouraged to sanction the risky, and to reward the non-risky, driving of their novice friends. Adolescent health programs and related initiatives need to more specifically consider the risks associated with driving. Young novice drivers are also adolescents, a developmental period associated with depression and anxiety. Depression, anxiety, and sensation seeking propensity were found to be predictive of risky driving; therefore interventions targeting psychological distress, whilst discouraging the expression of sensation seeking propensity whilst driving, warrant development and trialing. In addition, given that reward sensitivity was also predictive, a scheme which rewards novice drivers for safe driving behaviour - rather than rewarding the novice through emotional and instrumental rewards for risky driving behaviour - requires further investigation. The Police were also influential in the risky driving behaviour of young novices. Young novice drivers who had been detected for an offence, and then avoided punishment, reacted differentially, with some drivers appearing to become less risky after the encounter, whilst for others their risky behaviour appeared to be reinforced and therefore was more likely to be performed again. Such drivers saw t

Comparing cooperative and non-cooperative crash risk assessment

Cooperative Systems provide, through the multiplication of information sources over the road, a lot of potential to improve the assessment of the road risk describing a particular driving situation. In this paper, we compare the performance of a cooperative risk assessment approach against a non-cooperative approach; we used an advanced simulation framework, allowing for accurate and detailed, close-to-reality simulations. Risk is estimated, in both cases, with combinations of indicators based on the TTC. For the non-cooperative approach, vehicles are equipped only with an AAC-like forward-facing ranging sensor. On the other hand, for the cooperative approach, vehicles share information through 802.11p IVC and create an augmented map representing their environment; risk indicators are then extracted from this map. Our system shows that the cooperative risk assessment provides a systematic increase of forward warning to most of the vehicles involved in a freeway emergency braking scenario, compared to a non-cooperative system.

Improved estimates of percolation and anisotropic permeability from 3-D X-ray microtomography using stochastic analyses and visualization

X-ray microtomography (micro-CT) with micron resolution enables new ways of characterizing microstructures and opens pathways for forward calculations of multiscale rock properties. A quantitative characterization of the microstructure is the first step in this challenge. We developed a new approach to extract scale-dependent characteristics of porosity, percolation, and anisotropic permeability from 3-D microstructural models of rocks. The Hoshen-Kopelman algorithm of percolation theory is employed for a standard percolation analysis. The anisotropy of permeability is calculated by means of the star volume distribution approach. The local porosity distribution and local percolation probability are obtained by using the local porosity theory. Additionally, the local anisotropy distribution is defined and analyzed through two empirical probability density functions, the isotropy index and the elongation index. For such a high-resolution data set, the typical data sizes of the CT images are on the order of gigabytes to tens of gigabytes; thus an extremely large number of calculations are required. To resolve this large memory problem parallelization in OpenMP was used to optimally harness the shared memory infrastructure on cache coherent Non-Uniform Memory Access architecture machines such as the iVEC SGI Altix 3700Bx2 Supercomputer. We see adequate visualization of the results as an important element in this first pioneering study.

Comparison of moped, scooter and motorcycle crash risk and crash severity

The increased popularity of mopeds and motor scooters in Australia and elsewhere in the last decade has contributed substantially to the greater use of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) as a whole. As the exposure of mopeds and scooters has increased, so too has the number of reported crashes involving those PTW types, but there is currently little research comparing the safety of mopeds and, particularly, larger scooters with motorcycles. This study compared the crash risk and crash severity of motorcycles, mopeds and larger scooters in Queensland, Australia. Comprehensive data cleansing was undertaken to separate motorcycles, mopeds and larger scooters in police-reported crash data covering the five years to 30 June 2008. The crash rates of motorcycles (including larger scooters) and mopeds in terms of registered vehicles were similar over this period, although the moped crash rate showed a stronger downward trend. However, the crash rates in terms of distance travelled were nearly four times higher for mopeds than for motorcycles (including larger scooters). More comprehensive distance travelled data is needed to confirm these findings. The overall severity of moped and scooter crashes was significantly lower than motorcycle crashes but an ordered probit regression model showed that crash severity outcomes related to differences in crash characteristics and circumstances, rather than differences between PTW types per se. Greater motorcycle crash severity was associated with higher (>80 km/h) speed zones, horizontal curves, weekend, single vehicle and nighttime crashes. Moped crashes were more severe at night and in speed zones of 90 km/h or more. Larger scooter crashes were more severe in 70 km/h zones (than 60 km/h zones) but not in higher speed zones, and less severe on weekends than on weekdays. The findings can be used to inform potential crash and injury countermeasures tailored to users of different PTW types.

Not all systematic reviews are systematic : a meta-review of the quality of current systematic reviews and meta-analyses for remote monitoring in heart failure

Background/aims: Remote monitoring for heart failure has not only been evaluated in a large number of randomised controlled trials, but also in many systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The aim of this meta-review was to identify, appraise and synthesise existing systematic reviews that have evaluated the effects of remote monitoring in heart failure. Methods: Using a Cochrane methodology, we electronically searched all relevant online databases and search engines, performed a forward citation search as well as hand-searched bibliographies. Only fully published systematic reviews of invasive and/or non-invasive remote monitoring interventions were included. Two reviewers independently extracted data. Results: Sixty-five publications from 3333 citations were identified. Seventeen fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Quality varied with A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR scores) ranging from 2 to 11 (mean 5.88). Seven reviews (41%) pooled results from individual studies for meta-analysis. Eight (47%) considered all non-invasive remote monitoring strategies. Four (24%) focused specifically on telemonitoring. Four (24%) included studies investigating both non-invasive and invasive technologies. Population characteristics of the included studies were not reported consistently. Mortality and hospitalisations were the most frequently reported outcomes 12 (70%). Only five reviews (29%) reported healthcare costs and compliance. A high degree of heterogeneity was reported in many of the meta-analyses. Conclusions: These results should be considered in context of two negative RCTs of remote monitoring for heart failure that have been published since the meta-analyses (TIM-HF and Tele-HF). However, high quality reviews demonstrated improved mortality, quality of life, reduction in hospitalisations and healthcare costs.

A data mining driven crash risk profiling method for road asset management

This thesis takes a new data mining approach for analyzing road/crash data by developing models for the whole road network and generating a crash risk profile. Roads with an elevated crash risk due to road surface friction deficit are identified. The regression tree model, predicting road segment crash rate, is applied in a novel deployment coined regression tree extrapolation that produces a skid resistance/crash rate curve. Using extrapolation allows the method to be applied across the network and cope with the high proportion of missing road surface friction values. This risk profiling method can be applied in other domains.