Risk modelling in quality clinical registries : Monitoring lesion treatment failure rate in percutaneous coronary interventions

Aims: This paper describes the development of a risk adjustment (RA) model predictive of individual lesion treatment failure in percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) for use in a quality monitoring and improvement program. Methods and results: Prospectively collected data for 3972 consecutive revascularisation procedures (5601 lesions) performed between January 2003 and September 2011 were studied. Data on procedures to September 2009 (n = 3100) were used to identify factors predictive of lesion treatment failure. Factors identified included lesion risk class (p < 0.001), occlusion type (p < 0.001), patient age (p = 0.001), vessel system (p < 0.04), vessel diameter (p < 0.001), unstable angina (p = 0.003) and presence of major cardiac risk factors (p = 0.01). A Bayesian RA model was built using these factors with predictive performance of the model tested on the remaining procedures (area under the receiver operating curve: 0.765, Hosmer–Lemeshow p value: 0.11). Cumulative sum, exponentially weighted moving average and funnel plots were constructed using the RA model and subjectively evaluated. Conclusion: A RA model was developed and applied to SPC monitoring for lesion failure in a PCI database. If linked to appropriate quality improvement governance response protocols, SPC using this RA tool might improve quality control and risk management by identifying variation in performance based on a comparison of observed and expected outcomes.

Water absorption, permeability, and resistance to chloride-ion penetration of lightweight aggregate concrete

This paper presents an experimental study to evaluate effect of cumulative lightweight aggregate (LWA) content (including lightweight sand) in concrete [water/cement ratio (w/c) = 0.38] on its water absorption, water permeability, and resistance to chloride-ion penetration. Rapid chloride penetrability test (ASTM C 1202), rapid migration test (NT Build 492), and salt ponding test (AASHTO T 259) were conducted to evaluate the concrete resistance to chloride-ion penetration. The results were compared with those of a cement paste and a control normal weight aggregate concrete (NWAC) with the same w/c and a NWAC (w/c = 0.54) with 28-day compressive strength similar to some of the lightweight aggregate concrete (LWAC). Results indicate that although the total charge passed, migration coefficient, and diffusion coefficient of the LWAC were not significantly different from those of NWAC with the same w/c of 0.38, resistance of the LWAC to chloride penetration decreased with increase in the cumulative LWA content in the concretes. The water penetration depth under pressure and water sorptivity showed, in general, similar trends. The LWAC with only coarse LWA had similar water sorptivity, water permeability coefficient, and resistance to chloride-ion penetration compared to NWAC with similar w/c. The LWAC had lower water sorptivity, water permeability and higher resistance to chloride-ion penetration than the NWAC with similar 28-day strength but higher w/c. Both the NWAC and LWAC had lower sorptivity and higher resistance to chloride-ion penetration than the cement paste with similar w/c.

Fixed failure rate ambiguity validation methods for GPS and compass

Ambiguity resolution plays a crucial role in real time kinematic GNSS positioning which gives centimetre precision positioning results if all the ambiguities in each epoch are correctly fixed to integers. However, the incorrectly fixed ambiguities can result in large positioning offset up to several meters without notice. Hence, ambiguity validation is essential to control the ambiguity resolution quality. Currently, the most popular ambiguity validation is ratio test. The criterion of ratio test is often empirically determined. Empirically determined criterion can be dangerous, because a fixed criterion cannot fit all scenarios and does not directly control the ambiguity resolution risk. In practice, depending on the underlying model strength, the ratio test criterion can be too conservative for some model and becomes too risky for others. A more rational test method is to determine the criterion according to the underlying model and user requirement. Miss-detected incorrect integers will lead to a hazardous result, which should be strictly controlled. In ambiguity resolution miss-detected rate is often known as failure rate. In this paper, a fixed failure rate ratio test method is presented and applied in analysis of GPS and Compass positioning scenarios. A fixed failure rate approach is derived from the integer aperture estimation theory, which is theoretically rigorous. The criteria table for ratio test is computed based on extensive data simulations in the approach. The real-time users can determine the ratio test criterion by looking up the criteria table. This method has been applied in medium distance GPS ambiguity resolution but multi-constellation and high dimensional scenarios haven't been discussed so far. In this paper, a general ambiguity validation model is derived based on hypothesis test theory, and fixed failure rate approach is introduced, especially the relationship between ratio test threshold and failure rate is examined. In the last, Factors that influence fixed failure rate approach ratio test threshold is discussed according to extensive data simulation. The result shows that fixed failure rate approach is a more reasonable ambiguity validation method with proper stochastic model.

The effect of juice composition on the scaling rate and scale composition in sugar mill evaporators

To date, the formation of deposits on heat exchanger surfaces is the least understood problem in the design of heat exchangers for processing industries. Dr East has related the structure of the deposits to solution composition and has developed predictive models for composite fouling of calcium oxalate and silica in sugar factory evaporators.

Effects of soluble dietary cellulose on specific growth rate, survival and digestive enzyme activities in three freshwater crayfish (Cherax) species

Three native freshwater crayfish Cherax species are farmed in Australia namely; Redclaw (Cherax quadricarinatus), Marron (C. tenuimanus), and Yabby (C. destructor). Lack of appropriate data on specific nutrient requirements for each of these species, however, has constrained development of specific formulated diets and hence current use of over-formulated feeds or expensive marine shrimp feeds, limit their profitability. A number of studies have investigated nutritional requirements in redclaw that have focused on replacing expensive fish meal in formulated feeds with non-protein, less expensive substitutes including plant based ingredients. Confirmation that freshwater crayfish possess endogenous cellulase genes, suggests their potential ability to utilize complex carbohydrates like cellulose as nutrient sources in their diet. To date, studies have been limited to only C. quadricarinatus and C. destructor and no studies have compared the relative ability of each species to utilize soluble cellulose in their diets. Individual feeding trials of late-juveniles of each species were conducted separately in an automated recirculating culture system over 12 week cycles. Animals were fed either a test diet (TD) that contained 20% soluble cellulose or a reference diet (RD) substituted with the same amount of corn starch. Water temperature, conductivity and pH were maintained at constant and optimum levels for each species. Animals were fed at 3% of their body weight twice daily and wet body weight was recorded bi-weekly. At the end of experiment, all animals were harvested, measured and midgut gland extracts assayed for alpha-amylase, total protease and cellulase activity levels. After the trial period, redclaw fed with RD showed significantly higher (p<0.05) specific growth rate (SGR) compare with animals fed the TD while SGR of marron and yabby fed the two diets were not significantly different (p<0.05). Cellulase expression levels in redclaw were not significantly different between diets. Marron and yabby showed significantly higher cellulase activity when fed the RD. Amylase and protease activity in all three species were significantly higher in the animals fed with RD (Table 1). These results indicate that test animals of all species can utilize starch better than dietary soluble cellulose in their diet and inclusion of 20% soluble cellulose in diets does not appear to have any significant negative effect on their growth rate but survival was impacted in C. quadricarinatus while not in C. tenuimanus or C. destructor.

Effects of soluble dietary cellulose on specific growth rate, survival and digestive enzyme activities in three freshwater crayfish (Cherax) species

The current study evaluated the effect of soluble dietary cellulose on growth, survival and digestive enzyme activity in three endemic, Australian freshwater crayfish species (redclaw: Cherax quadricarinatus, marron: C. tenuimanus, yabby: C. destructor). Separate individual feeding trials were conducted for late-stage juveniles from each species in an automated recirculating freshwater, culture system. Animals were fed either a test diet (TD) that contained 20% soluble cellulose or a reference diet (RD) substituted with the same amount of corn starch, over a 12 week period. Redclaw fed with RD showed significantly higher (p<0.05) specific growth rates (SGR) compared with animals fed the TD, while SGR of marron and yabby fed the two diets were not significantly different. Expressed cellulase activity levels in redclaw were not significantly different between diets. Marron and yabby showed significantly higher cellulase activity when fed the RD (p<0.05). Amylase and protease activity in all three species were significantly higher in the animals fed with RD (p<0.05). These results indicate that test animals of all three species appear to utilize starch more efficiently than soluble dietary cellulose in their diet. The inclusion of 20% soluble cellulose in diets did not appear, however, to have a significant negative effect on growth rates.

Optimal catalyst thickness in titanium dioxide fixed film reactors: Mathematical modelling and experimental validation

The use of immobilised TiO2 for the purification of polluted water streams introduces the necessity to evaluate the effect of mechanisms such as the transport of pollutants from the bulk of the liquid to the catalyst surface and the transport phenomena inside the porous film. Experimental results of the effects of film thickness on the observed reaction rate for both liquid-side and support-side illumination are here compared with the predictions of a one-dimensional mathematical model of the porous photocatalytic slab. Good agreement was observed between the experimentally obtained photodegradation of phenol and its by-products, and the corresponding model predictions. The results have confirmed that an optimal catalyst thickness exists and, for the films employed here, is 5 μm. Furthermore, the modelling results have highlighted the fact that porosity, together with the intrinsic reaction kinetics are the parameters controlling the photocatalytic activity of the film. The former by influencing transport phenomena and light absorption characteristics, the latter by naturally dictating the rate of reaction.

Vision-based estimation of airborne target pseudobearing rate using hidden Markov model filters

The problem of estimating pseudobearing rate information of an airborne target based on measurements from a vision sensor is considered. Novel image speed and heading angle estimators are presented that exploit image morphology, hidden Markov model (HMM) filtering, and relative entropy rate (RER) concepts to allow pseudobearing rate information to be determined before (or whilst) the target track is being estimated from vision information.

Random breath testing in Queensland and Western Australia : Examination of how the random breath testing rate influences alcohol related traffic crash rates

In this paper we explore the relationship between monthly random breath testing (RBT) rates (per 1000 licensed drivers) and alcohol-related traffic crash (ARTC) rates over time, across two Australian states: Queensland and Western Australia. We analyse the RBT, ARTC and licensed driver rates across 12 years; however, due to administrative restrictions, we model ARTC rates against RBT rates for the period July 2004 to June 2009. The Queensland data reveals that the monthly ARTC rate is almost flat over the five year period. Based on the results of the analysis, an average of 5.5 ARTCs per 100,000 licensed drivers are observed across the study period. For the same period, the monthly rate of RBTs per 1000 licensed drivers is observed to be decreasing across the study with the results of the analysis revealing no significant variations in the data. The comparison between Western Australia and Queensland shows that Queensland's ARTC monthly percent change (MPC) is 0.014 compared to the MPC of 0.47 for Western Australia. While Queensland maintains a relatively flat ARTC rate, the ARTC rate in Western Australia is increasing. Our analysis reveals an inverse relationship between ARTC RBT rates, that for every 10% increase in the percentage of RBTs to licensed driver there is a 0.15 decrease in the rate of ARTCs per 100,000 licenced drivers. Moreover, in Western Australia, if the 2011 ratio of 1:2 (RBTs to annual number of licensed drivers) were to double to a ratio of 1:1, we estimate the number of monthly ARTCs would reduce by approximately 15. Based on these findings we believe that as the number of RBTs conducted increases the number of drivers willing to risk being detected for drinking driving decreases, because the perceived risk of being detected is considered greater. This is turn results in the number of ARTCs diminishing. The results of this study provide an important evidence base for policy decisions for RBT operations.

Effect of interval training intensity on fat oxidation, blood lactate and the rate of perceived exertion in obese men

Purpose The objectives of this study were to examine the effect of 4-week moderate- and high-intensity interval training (MIIT and HIIT) on fat oxidation and the responses of blood lactate (BLa) and rating of perceived exertion (RPE). Methods Ten overweight/obese men (age = 29 ±3.7 years, BMI = 30.7 ±3.4 kg/m2) participated in a cross-over study of 4-week MIIT and HIIT training. The MIIT training sessions consisted of 5-min cycling stages at mechanical workloads 20% above and 20% below 45%VO2peak. The HIIT sessions consisted of intervals of 30-s work at 90%VO2peak and 30-s rest. Pre- and post-training assessments included VO2max using a graded exercise test (GXT) and fat oxidation using a 45-min constant-load test at 45%VO2max. BLa and RPE were also measured during the constant-load exercise test. Results There were no significant changes in body composition with either intervention. There were significant increases in fat oxidation after MIIT and HIIT (p ≤ 0.01), with no effect of intensity. BLa during the constant-load exercise test significantly decreased after MIIT and HIIT (p ≤ 0.01), and the difference between MIIT and HIIT was not significant (p = 0.09). RPE significantly decreased after HIIT greater than MIIT (p ≤ 0.05). Conclusion Interval training can increase fat oxidation with no effect of exercise intensity, but BLa and RPE decreased after HIIT to greater extent than MIIT.

Positive reappraisal improves heart rate variability during stressful work

Recent developments in wearable ECG technology have seen renewed interest in the use of Heart Rate Variability (HRV) feedback for stress management. Yet, little is know about the efficacy of such interventions. Positive reappraisal is an emotion regulation strategy that involves changing the way a situation is construed to decrease emotional impact. We sought to test the effectiveness of an intervention that used feedback on HRV data to prompt positive reappraisal during a stressful work task. Participants (N=122) completed two 20-minute trials of an inbox activity. In-between the first and the second trial participants were assigned to the waitlist control condition, a positive reappraisal via psycho-education condition, or a positive reappraisal via HRV feedback condition. Results revealed that using HRV data to frame a positive reappraisal message is more effective than using psycho-education (or no intervention)–especially for increasing positive mood and reducing arousal.

The beneficial effects of specialist thoracic surgery on the resection rate for non-small-cell lung cancer

We aimed to evaluate the effect of the appointment of a dedicated specialist thoracic surgeon on surgical practice for lung cancer previously served by cardio-thoracic surgeons. Outcomes were compared for the 240 patients undergoing surgical resection for lung cancer in two distinct 3-year periods: Group A: 65 patients, 1994-1996 (pre-specialist); Group B: 175 patients, 1997-1999 (post-specialist). The changes implemented resulted in a significant increase in resection rate (from 12.2 to 23.4%, P<0.001), operations in the elderly (over 75 years) and extended resections. There were no significant differences in stage distribution, in-hospital mortality or stage-specific survival after surgery. Lung cancer surgery provided by specialists within a multidisciplinary team resulted in increased surgical resection rates without compromising outcome. Our results strengthen the case for disease-specific specialists in the treatment of lung cancer. © 2004 Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Hyperelastic constitutive relationship for the strain-rate dependent behavior of shoulder and other joint cartilages

Non-linear finite deformations of articular cartilages under physiological loading conditions can be attributed to hyperelastic behavior. This paper contains experimental results of indentation tests in finite deformation and proposes an empirical based new generalized hyperelastic constitutive model to account for strain-rate dependency for humeral head cartilage tissues. The generalized model is based on existing hyperelastic constitutive relationships that are extensively used to represent biological tissues in biomechanical literature. The experimental results were obtained for three loading velocities, corresponding to low (1x10-3 s-1), moderate and high strain-rates (1x10-1 s-1), which represent physiological loading rates that are experienced in daily activities such as lifting, holding objects and sporting activities. Hyperelastic material parameters were identified by non linear curve fitting procedure. Analysis demonstrated that the material behavior of cartilage can be effectively decoupled into strain-rate independent(elastic) and dependent parts. Further, experiments conducted using different indenters indicated that the parameters obtained are significantly affected by the indenter size, potentially due to structural inhomogeneity of the tissue. The hyperelastic constitutive model developed in this paper opens a new avenue for the exploration of material properties of cartilage tissues.

HMM relative entropy rate concepts for vision-based aircraft manoeuvre detection

Machine vision is emerging as a viable sensing approach for mid-air collision avoidance (particularly for small to medium aircraft such as unmanned aerial vehicles). In this paper, using relative entropy rate concepts, we propose and investigate a new change detection approach that uses hidden Markov model filters to sequentially detect aircraft manoeuvres from morphologically processed image sequences. Experiments using simulated and airborne image sequences illustrate the performance of our proposed algorithm in comparison to other sequential change detection approaches applied to this application.