Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand : a time series study

Background The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999–2008. Method A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65–74, 75–84, and > =85 years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21 days. Results We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0–21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0–21. Conclusion This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health.

Modeling the viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia : an object-oriented Bayesian network approach

Conservation of free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations is multi faceted and needs to be addressed from an ecological, biological and management perspective. There is a wealth of published research, each focusing on a particular aspect of cheetah conservation. Identifying the most important factors, making sense of various (and sometimes contrasting) findings, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing conservationists. Bayesian networks (BN) provide a statistical modeling framework that enables analysis and integration of information addressing different aspects of conservation. There has been an increased interest in the use of BNs to model conservation issues, however the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilizing object-oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. We describe an integrated, parallel modeling process followed during a BN modeling workshop held in Namibia to combine expert knowledge and data about free-ranging cheetahs. The aim of the workshop was to obtain a more comprehensive view of the current viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia, and to predict the effect different scenarios may have on the future viability of this free-ranging cheetah population. Furthermore, a complementary aim was to identify influential parameters of the model to more effectively target those parameters having the greatest impact on population viability. The BN was developed by aggregating diverse perspectives from local and independent scientists, agents from the national ministry, conservation agency members and local fieldworkers. This integrated BN approach facilitates OO modeling in a multi-expert context which lends itself to a series of integrated, yet independent, subnetworks describing different scientific and management components. We created three subnetworks in parallel: a biological, ecological and human factors network, which were then combined to create a complete representation of free-ranging cheetah population viability. Such OOBNs have widespread relevance to the effective and targeted conservation management of vulnerable and endangered species.

Preliminary bond-slip model for CFRP sheets bonded to steel plates

Carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) sheets have established a strong position as an effective method for innovative structural rehabilitation. However, the use of externally bonded CFRP in the repair and rehabilitation of steel structures is a relatively new technique that has the potential to improve the way structures are repaired. An important step toward understanding bond behaviour is to have an estimation of local bond stress versus slip relationship. The current study aims to establish the bond-slip model for CFRP sheets bonded to steel plate. To obtain the shear stress versus slippage relationship, a series of double strap tension type bond tests were conducted. This paper reports on the findings of the experimental studies. The strain and stress distributions measured in the specimens for two different bond lengths. The results show a preliminary bi-linear bond-slip model may be adopted for CFRP sheet bonded with steel plate.

Looking yonder : a model of arts engagement with teacher artists and professional artists in Queensland Schools

Since 2007 Kite Arts Education Program (KITE), based at Queensland Performing Arts Centre (QPAC), has been engaged in delivering a series of theatre-based experiences for children in low socio-economic primary schools in Queensland. KITE @ QPAC is an early childhood arts initiative of The Queensland Department of Education that is supported by and located at the Queensland Performing Arts Centre. KITE delivers relevant contemporary arts education experiences for Prep to Year 3 students and their teachers across Queensland. The theatre-based experiences form part of a three year artist-in-residency project titled Yonder that includes performances developed by the children with the support and leadership of Teacher Artists from KITE for their community and parents/carers in a peak community cultural institution. This paper provides an overview of the Yonder model and unpacks some challenges in activating the model for schools and cultural organisations.

An Asian perspective of occupational stress coping model : a case study of Sri Lankan employees

Sri Lanka has one of the highest rates of natural disasters and violent conflicts in the world. Yet there is a lack of research on its unique socio-cultural characteristics that determine an individual's cognitive and behavioural responses to distressing encounters. This study extends Goh, Sawang and Oei's (2010) revised transactional model to examine the cognitive and behavioural processes of occupational stress experience in the collectivistic society of Sri Lanka. A time series survey was used to measure the participant's stress-coping process. Using the revised transactional model and path analysis, a unique Sri Lankan model is identified that provides theoretical insights on the revised transactional model, and sheds light on socio-cultural dimensions of occupational stress and coping, thus equipping practitioners with a sound theoretical basis for the development of stress management programs in the workplace.

A multidimensional model of client success when engaging external consultants

Too often the relationship between client and external consultants is perceived as one of protagonist versus antogonist. Stories on dramatic, failed consultancies abound, as do related anecdotal quips. A contributing factor to many "apparently" failed consultancies is a poor appreciation by both the client and consultant of the client's true goals for the project and how to assess progress toward these goals. This paper presents and analyses a measurement model for assessing client success when engaging an external consultant. Three main areas of assessment are identified: (1) the consultant;s recommendations, (2) client learning, and (3) consultant performance. Engagement success is emperically measured along these dimensions through a series of case studies and a subsequent survey of clients and consultants involved in 85 computer-based information system selection projects. Validation fo the model constructs suggests the existence of six distinct and individually important dimensions of engagement success. both clients and consultants are encouraged to attend to these dimensions in pre-engagement proposal and selection processes, and post-engagement evaluation of outcomes.

The impact of heatwaves on emergency department visits in Brisbane, Australia : a time series study

Introduction The acute health effects of heatwaves in a subtropical climate and their impact on emergency departments (ED) are not well known. The purpose of this study is to examine overt heat-related presentations to EDs associated with heatwaves in Brisbane. Methods Data were obtained for the summer seasons (December to February) from 2000-2012. Heatwave events were defined as two or more successive days with daily maximum temperature >=34[degree sign]C (HWD1) or >=37[degree sign]C (HWD2). Poisson generalised additive model was used to assess the effect of heatwaves on heat-related visits (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes T67 and X30; ICD 9 codes 992 and E900.0). Results Overall, 628 cases presented for heat-related illnesses. The presentations significantly increased on heatwave days based on HWD1 (relative risk (RR) = 4.9, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.8, 6.3) and HWD2 (RR = 18.5, 95% CI: 12.0, 28.4). The RRs in different age groups ranged between 3-9.2 (HWD1) and 7.5-37.5 (HWD2). High acuity visits significantly increased based on HWD1 (RR = 4.7, 95% CI: 2.3, 9.6) and HWD2 (RR = 81.7, 95% CI: 21.5, 310.0). Average length of stay in ED significantly increased by >1 hour (HWD1) and >2 hours (HWD2). Conclusions Heatwaves significantly increase ED visits and workload even in a subtropical climate. The degree of impact is directly related to the extent of temperature increases and varies by socio-demographic characteristics of the patients. Heatwave action plans should be tailored according to the population needs and level of vulnerability. EDs should have plans to increase their surge capacity during heatwaves.

Parallel Signcryption

The primary motivation for signcryption was the gain in efficiency when both encryption and signing need to be performed. These two cryptographic operations may be done sequentially either by first encrypt and then sign (EtS) or alternatively, by first sign and then encrypt (StE). Further gains in efficiency can be achieved if encryption and signature are carried out in parallel (E&S). More importantly, however, is that these efficiency gains are complemented by gains in security, i.e., we may use relative weak encryption and signature schemes in order to obtain a “stronger” signcryption scheme. The reader is referred to Chaps. 2 and 3 for a discussion of the different “strengths” of security model (e.g., outsider vs. insider adversaries, two-user vs. multi-user setting).

Assessment of angiogenic potential--the use of AIDS-KS cell supernatants as an in vitro model

Metastasis, the passage of primary tumour cells throughout the body via the vascular system and their subsequent proliferation into secondary lesions in distant organs, represents a poor prognosis and therefore an understandably feared event for cancer patients. Despite considerable advances in cancer diagnosis and treatment, most deaths are the result of metastases resistant to conventional treatment [1]. Rather than being a random process, metastasis involves a series of organised steps leading to the growth of a secondary tumour. Malignant tumours stimulate the production of new vessels by the host, and this process is a prerequisite for the increase in size of a new tumour [2]. Angiogenesis, not only permits tumour expansion but also allows the entry of tumour cells into the circulation and is probably the most vital event for the metastatic process [3]. Metastasis and angiogenesis [4] have received much attention in recent years. A biological understanding of both phenomena seems to be an urgent priority towards the search for an effective prevention and treatment of tumour progression. Studies in vitro and in vivo have shown that one of the most important barriers to the passage of malignant cells is the basement membrane. The crossing of such barriers is a vital step in the formation of a metastasis [5].

Epithelial mesenchymal transition traits in human breast cancer cell lines parallel the CD44HI/CD24lO/-stem cell phenotype in human breast cancer

We review here the recently emerging relationship between epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) and breast cancer stem cells (BCSC), and provide analyses of published data on human breast cancer cell lines, supporting their utility as a model for the EMT/BCSC state. Genome-wide transcriptional profiling of these cell lines has confirmed the existence of a subgroup with mesenchymal tendencies and enhanced invasive properties ('Basal B'/Mesenchymal), distinct from subgroups with either predominantly luminal ('Luminal') or mixed basal/luminal ('Basal A') features (Neve et al. Cancer Cell, 2006). A literature-derived EMT gene signature has shown specific enrichment within the Basal B subgroup of cell lines, consistent with their over-expression of various EMT transcriptional drivers. Basal B cell lines are found to resemble BCSC, being CD44highCD24low. Moreover, gene products that distinguish Basal B from Basal A and Luminal cell lines (Basal B Discriminators) showed close concordance with those that define BCSC isolated from clinical material, as reported by Shipitsin et al. (Cancer Cell, 2007). CD24 mRNA levels varied across Basal B cell lines, correlating with other Basal B Discriminators. Many gene products correlating with CD24 status in Basal B cell lines were also differentially expressed in isolated BCSC. These findings confirm and extend the importance of the cellular product of the EMT with Basal B cell lines, and illustrate the value of analysing these cell lines for new leads that may improve breast cancer outcomes. Gene products specific to Basal B cell lines may serve as tools for the detection, quantification, and analysis of BCSC/EMT attributes.

An endogenously deposited fibrin scaffold determines construct size in the surgically created arteriovenous loop chamber model of tissue engineering

Background: An arteriovenous loop (AVL) enclosed in a polycarbonate chamber in vivo, produces a fibrin exudate which acts as a provisional matrix for the development of a tissue engineered microcirculatory network. Objectives: By administering enoxaparin sodium - an inhibitor of fibrin polymerization, the significance of fibrin scaffold formation on AVL construct size (including the AVL, fibrin scaffold, and new tissue growth into the fibrin), growth, and vascularization were assessed and compared to controls. Methods: In Sprague Dawley rats, an AVL was created on femoral vessels and inserted into a polycarbonate chamber in the groin in 3 control groups (Series I) and 3 experimental groups (Series II). Two hours before surgery and 6 hours post-surgery, saline (Series I) or enoxaparin sodium (0.6 mg/kg, Series II) was administered intra-peritoneally. Thereafter, the rats were injected daily with saline (Series I) or enoxaparin sodium (1.5 mg/kg, Series II) until construct retrieval at 3, 10, or 21 days. The retrieved constructs underwent weight and volume measurements, and morphologic/morphometric analysis of new tissue components. Results: Enoxaparin sodium treatment resulted in the development of smaller AVL constructs at 3, 10, and 21 days. Construct weight and volume were significantly reduced at 10 days (control weight 0.337 ± 0.016 g [Mean ± SEM] vs treated 0.228 ± 0.048, [P < .001]: control volume 0.317 ± 0.015 mL vs treated 0.184 ± 0.039 mL [P < .01]) and 21 days (control weight 0.306 ± 0.053 g vs treated 0.198 ± 0.043 g [P < .01]: control volume 0.285 ± 0.047 mL vs treated 0.148 ± 0.041 mL, [P < .01]). Angiogenesis was delayed in the enoxaparin sodium-treated constructs with the absolute vascular volume significantly decreased at 10 days (control vascular volume 0.029 ± 0.03 mL vs treated 0.012 ± 0.002 mL [P < .05]). Conclusion: In this in vivo tissue engineering model, endogenous, extra-vascularly deposited fibrin volume determines construct size and vascular growth in the first 3 weeks and is, therefore, critical to full construct development.

A hypothesis test using bias-adjusted AR estimators for classifying time series in small samples

A new test of hypothesis for classifying stationary time series based on the bias-adjusted estimators of the fitted autoregressive model is proposed. It is shown theoretically that the proposed test has desirable properties. Simulation results show that when time series are short, the size and power estimates of the proposed test are reasonably good, and thus this test is reliable in discriminating between short-length time series. As the length of the time series increases, the performance of the proposed test improves, but the benefit of bias-adjustment reduces. The proposed hypothesis test is applied to two real data sets: the annual real GDP per capita of six European countries, and quarterly real GDP per capita of five European countries. The application results demonstrate that the proposed test displays reasonably good performance in classifying relatively short time series.

Parallel authentication and public-key encryption

A parallel authentication and public-key encryption is introduced and exemplified on joint encryption and signing which compares favorably with sequential Encrypt-then-Sign (ɛtS) or Sign-then-Encrypt (Stɛ) schemes as far as both efficiency and security are concerned. A security model for signcryption, and thus joint encryption and signing, has been recently defined which considers possible attacks and security goals. Such a scheme is considered secure if the encryption part guarantees indistinguishability and the signature part prevents existential forgeries, for outsider but also insider adversaries. We propose two schemes of parallel signcryption, which are efficient alternative to Commit-then-Sign-and- Encrypt (Ct&G3&S). They are both provably secure in the random oracle model. The first one, called generic parallel encrypt and sign, is secure if the encryption scheme is semantically secure against chosen-ciphertext attacks and the signature scheme prevents existential forgeries against random-message attacks. The second scheme, called optimal parallel encrypt. and sign, applies random oracles similar to the OAEP technique in order to achieve security using encryption and signature components with very weak security requirements — encryption is expected to be one-way under chosen-plaintext attacks while signature needs to be secure against universal forgeries under random-plaintext attack, that is actually the case for both the plain-RSA encryption and signature under the usual RSA assumption. Both proposals are generic in the sense that any suitable encryption and signature schemes (i.e. which simply achieve required security) can be used. Furthermore they allow both parallel encryption and signing, as well as parallel decryption and verification. Properties of parallel encrypt and sign schemes are considered and a new security standard for parallel signcryption is proposed.

Part 3. MOO methods for multidisciplinary design using parallel evolutionary algorithms, game theory and hierarchical topology. (Part 3.) Practical application to the design and optimisation of UAV systems

These lecture notes highlight some of the recent applications of multi-objective and multidisciplinary design optimisation in aeronautical design using the framework and methodology described in References 8, 23, 24 and in Part 1 and 2 of the notes. A summary of the methodology is described and the treatment of uncertainties in flight conditions parameters by the HAPEAs software and game strategies is introduced. Several test cases dealing with detailed design and computed with the software are presented and results discussed in section 4 of these notes.

Sensitivity of an Elekta iView GT a-Si EPID model to delivery errors for pre-treatment verification of IMRT fields

A Monte Carlo model of an Elekta iViewGT amorphous silicon electronic portal imaging device (a-Si EPID) has been validated for pre-treatment verification of clinical IMRT treatment plans. The simulations involved the use of the BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc Monte Carlo codes to predict the response of the iViewGT a-Si EPID model. The predicted EPID images were compared to the measured images obtained from the experiment. The measured EPID images were obtained by delivering a photon beam from an Elekta Synergy linac to the Elekta iViewGT a-Si EPID. The a-Si EPID was used with no additional build-up material. Frame averaged EPID images were acquired and processed using in-house software. The agreement between the predicted and measured images was analyzed using the gamma analysis technique with acceptance criteria of 3% / 3 mm. The results show that the predicted EPID images for four clinical IMRT treatment plans have a good agreement with the measured EPID signal. Three prostate IMRT plans were found to have an average gamma pass rate of more than 95.0 % and a spinal IMRT plan has the average gamma pass rate of 94.3 %. During the period of performing this work a routine MLC calibration was performed and one of the IMRT treatments re-measured with the EPID. A change in the gamma pass rate for one field was observed. This was the motivation for a series of experiments to investigate the sensitivity of the method by introducing delivery errors, MLC position and dosimetric overshoot, into the simulated EPID images. The method was found to be sensitive to 1 mm leaf position errors and 10% overshoot errors.