Report : analysis of maintenance database inputs

In the previous phase of this project, 2002-059-B Case-Based Reasoning in Construction and Infrastructure Projects, demonstration software was developed using a case-base reasoning engine to access a number of sources of information on lifetime of metallic building components. One source of information was data from the Queensland Department of Public Housing relating to maintenance operations over a number of years. Maintenance information is seen as being a particularly useful source of data about service life of building components as it relates to actual performance of materials in the working environment. If a building is constructed in 1984 and the maintenance records indicate that the guttering was replaced in 2006, then the service life of the gutters was 22 years in that environment. This phase of the project aims to look more deeply at the Department of Housing data, as an example of maintenance records, and formulate methods for using this data to inform the knowledge of service lifetimes.

Defining reference service life : an open innovation approach

The endeavour to obtain estimates of durability of components for use in lifecycle assessment or costing and infrastructure and maintenance planning systems is large. The factor method and the reference service life concept provide a very valuable structure, but do not resolve the central dilemma of the need to derive an extensive database of service life. Traditional methods of estimating service life, such as dose functions or degradation models, can play a role in developing this database, however the scale of the problem clearly indicates that individual dose functions cannot be derived for each component in each different local and geographic setting. Thus, a wider range of techniques is required in order to devise reference service life. This paper outlines the approaches being taken in the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation project to predict reference service life. Approaches include the development of fundamental degradation and microclimate models, the development of a situation-based reasoning ‘engine’ to vary the ‘estimator’ of service life, and the development of a database on expert performance (Delphi study). These methods should be viewed as complementary rather than as discrete alternatives. As discussed in the paper, the situation-based reasoning approach in fact has the possibility of encompassing all other methods.

A national building products inventory

Australia has no nationally accepted building products life cycle inventory (LCI) database for use in building Ecologically Sustainable Development (ESD) assessment (BEA) tools. More information about the sustainability of the supply chain is limited by industry’s lack of real capacity to deliver objective information on process and product environmental impact. Recognition of these deficits emerged during compilation of a National LCI database to inform LCADesign, a prototype 3 dimensional object oriented computer aided design (3-D CAD) commercial building design tool. Development of this Australian LCI represents 24 staff years of effort here since 1995. Further development of LCADesign extensions is proposed as being essential to support key applications demanded from a more holistic theoretical framework calling for modules of new building and construction industry tools. A proposed tool, conceptually called LCADetails, is to serve the building product industries own needs as well as that of commercial building design amongst other industries’ prospective needs. In this paper, a proposition is examined that the existing national LCI database should be further expanded to serve Australian building product industries’ needs as well as to provide details for its client-base from a web based portal containing a module of practical supply and procurement applications. Along with improved supply chain assessment services, this proposed portal is envisaged to facilitate industry environmental life cycle improvement assessment and support decision-making to provide accredited data for operational reporting capabilities, load-based reasoning as well as BEA applications. This paper provides an overview of developments to date, including a novel 3-D CAD information and communications technology (ICT) platform for more holistic integration of existing tools for true cost assessment. Further conceptualisation of future prospects, based on a new holistic life cycle assessment framework LCADevelop, considering stakeholder relationships and their need for a range of complementary tools leveraging automated function off such ICT platforms to inform dimensionally defined operations for such as automotive, civil, transport and industrial applications are also explored.

Poly(3-hexyl-thiophene) coil-wrapped single wall carbon nanotube investigated by scanning tunneling spectroscopy

Scanning Tunneling Spectroscopy was performed on a (15,0) single wall carbon nanotube partially wrapped by Poly(3-hexyl-thiophene). On the bare nanotube section, the local density of states is in good agreement with the theoretical model based on local density approximation and remarkably is not perturbed by the polymer wrapping. On the coiled section, a rectifying current-voltage characteristic has been observed along with the charge transfer from the polymer to the nanotube. The electron transfer from Poly(3-hexyl-thiophene) to metallic nanotube was previously theoretically proposed and contributes to the presence of the Schottky barrier at the interface responsible for the rectifying behavior.

Design of self-turning controllers for two terminal HVDC link

This paper presents the design of self-tuning controllers for a two terminal HVDC link. The controllers are designed utilizing a novel discrete-time converter model based on multirate sampling. The nature of converter firing system necessitates the development of a two-step ahead self-tuning control strategy. A two terminal HVDC system study has been carried out to show the effectiveness of the control strategies proposed which include the design of minimum variance controller, pole assigned controller and PLQG controller. The coordinated control of a two terminal HVDC system has been established deriving the signal from inverter end current and voltage which has been estimated based on the measurements of rectifier end quantities only realized through the robust reduced order observer. A well known scaled down sample system data has been selected for studies and the controllers designed have been tested for worst conditions. The performance of self-tuning controllers has been evaluated through digital simulation.

National guidelines for digital modelling

These National Guidelines and Case Studies for Digital Modelling are the outcomes from one of a number of Building Information Modelling (BIM)-related projects undertaken by the CRC for Construction Innovation. Since the CRC opened its doors in 2001, the industry has seen a rapid increase in interest in BIM, and widening adoption. These guidelines and case studies are thus very timely, as the industry moves to model-based working and starts to share models in a new context called integrated practice. Governments, both federal and state, and in New Zealand are starting to outline the role they might take, so that in contrast to the adoption of 2D CAD in the early 90s, we ensure that a national, industry-wide benefit results from this new paradigm of working. Section 1 of the guidelines give us an overview of BIM: how it affects our current mode of working, what we need to do to move to fully collaborative model-based facility development. The role of open standards such as IFC is described as a mechanism to support new processes, and make the extensive design and construction information available to asset operators and managers. Digital collaboration modes, types of models, levels of detail, object properties and model management complete this section. It will be relevant for owners, managers and project leaders as well as direct users of BIM. Section 2 provides recommendations and guides for key areas of model creation and development, and the move to simulation and performance measurement. These are the more practical parts of the guidelines developed for design professionals, BIM managers, technical staff and ‘in the field’ workers. The guidelines are supported by six case studies including a summary of lessons learnt about implementing BIM in Australian building projects. A key aspect of these publications is the identification of a number of important industry actions: the need for BIM-compatible product information and a national context for classifying product data; the need for an industry agreement and setting process-for-process definition; and finally, the need to ensure a national standard for sharing data between all of the participants in the facility-development process.

National guidelines for digital modelling : case studies

These National Guidelines and Case Studies for Digital Modelling are the outcomes from one of a number of Building Information Modelling (BIM)-related projects undertaken by the CRC for Construction Innovation. Since the CRC opened its doors in 2001, the industry has seen a rapid increase in interest in BIM, and widening adoption. These guidelines and case studies are thus very timely, as the industry moves to model-based working and starts to share models in a new context called integrated practice. Governments, both federal and state, and in New Zealand are starting to outline the role they might take, so that in contrast to the adoption of 2D CAD in the early 90s, we ensure that a national, industry-wide benefit results from this new paradigm of working. Section 1 of the guidelines give us an overview of BIM: how it affects our current mode of working, what we need to do to move to fully collaborative model-based facility development. The role of open standards such as IFC is described as a mechanism to support new processes, and make the extensive design and construction information available to asset operators and managers. Digital collaboration modes, types of models, levels of detail, object properties and model management complete this section. It will be relevant for owners, managers and project leaders as well as direct users of BIM. Section 2 provides recommendations and guides for key areas of model creation and development, and the move to simulation and performance measurement. These are the more practical parts of the guidelines developed for design professionals, BIM managers, technical staff and ‘in the field’ workers. The guidelines are supported by six case studies including a summary of lessons learnt about implementing BIM in Australian building projects. A key aspect of these publications is the identification of a number of important industry actions: the need for BIMcompatible product information and a national context for classifying product data; the need for an industry agreement and setting process-for-process definition; and finally, the need to ensure a national standard for sharing data between all of the participants in the facility-development process.

Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performances of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the pre-ferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the relative merit of combining forecasts and whether the relative performances of various forecasts are statistically different. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that a combination of model based forecasts is the dominant approach, indicating that the implied volatility cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts. Therefore, while often viewed as a superior volatility forecast, the implied volatility is in fact an inferior forecast of S&P 500 volatility relative to model-based forecasts.

From conceptual process models to running systems: A holistic approach for the configuration of enterprise system processes

This paper proposes a method which aims at increasing the efficiency of enterprise system implementations. First, we argue that existing process modeling languages that feature different degrees of abstraction for different user groups exist and are used for different purposes which makes it necessary to integrate them. We describe how to do this using the meta models of the involved languages. Second, we argue that an integrated process model based on the integrated meta model needs to be configurable and elaborate on the enabling mechanisms. We introduce a business example using SAP modeling techniques to illustrate the proposed method.

On the affinity of Chuaria–Tawuia complex : a multidisciplinary study

In this study, biometric and structural engineering tool have been used to examine a possible relationship within Chuaria–Tawuia complex and micro-FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy) analyses to understand the biological affinity of Chuaria circularis Walcott, collected from the Mesoproterozoic Suket Shales of the Vindhyan Supergroup and the Neoproterozoic Halkal Shales of the Bhima Group of peninsular India. Biometric analyses of well preserved carbonized specimens show wide variation in morphology and uni-modal distribution. We believe and demonstrate to a reasonable extent that C. circularis most likely was a part of Tawuia-like cylindrical body of algal origin. Specimens with notch/cleft and overlapping preservation, mostly recorded in the size range of 3–5 mm, are of special interest. Five different models proposed earlier on the life cycle of C. circularis are discussed. A new model, termed as ‘Hybrid model’ based on present multidisciplinary study assessing cylindrical and spherical shapes suggesting variable cell wall strength and algal affinity is proposed. This model discusses and demonstrates varied geometrical morphologies assumed by Chuaria and Tawuia, and also shows the inter-relationship of Chuaria–Tawuia complex. Structural engineering tool (thin walled pressure vessel theory) was applied to investigate the implications of possible geometrical shapes (sphere and cylinder), membrane (cell wall) stresses and ambient pressure environment on morphologically similar C. circularis and Tawuia. The results suggest that membrane stresses developed on the structures similar to Chuaria–Tawuia complex were directly proportional to radius and inversely proportional to the thickness in both cases. In case of hollow cylindrical structure, the membrane stresses in circumferential direction (hoop stress) are twice of the longitudinal direction indicating that rupture or fragmentation in the body of Tawuia would have occurred due to hoop stress. It appears that notches and discontinuities seen in some of the specimens of Chuaria may be related to rupture suggesting their possible location in 3D Chuaria. The micro-FTIR spectra of C. circularis are characterized by both aliphatic and aromatic absorption bands. The aliphaticity is indicated by prominent alkyl group bands between 2800–3000 and 1300–1500 cm−1. The prominent absorption signals at 700–900 cm−1 (peaking at 875 and 860 cm−1) are due to aromatic CH out of plane deformation. A narrow, strong band is centred at 1540 cm−1 which could be COOH band. The presence of strong aliphatic bands in FTIR spectra suggests that the biogeopolymer of C. circularis is of aliphatic nature. The wall chemistry indicates the presence of ‘algaenan’—a biopolymer of algae.

Setting hospital infection control policy : a decision-making framework incorporating health economics and healthcare epidemiology

Background: Reducing rates of healthcare acquired infection has been identified by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care as a national priority. One of the goals is the prevention of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). At least 3,500 cases of CR-BSI occur annually in Australian hospitals, resulting in unnecessary deaths and costs to the healthcare system between $25.7 and $95.3 million. Two approaches to preventing these infections have been proposed: use of antimicrobial catheters (A-CVCs); or a catheter care and management ‘bundle’. Given finite healthcare budgets, decisions about the optimal infection control policy require consideration of the effectiveness and value for money of each approach. Objectives: The aim of this research is to use a rational economic framework to inform efficient infection control policy relating to the prevention of CR-BSI in the intensive care unit. It addresses three questions relating to decision-making in this area: 1. Is additional investment in activities aimed at preventing CR-BSI an efficient use of healthcare resources? 2. What is the optimal infection control strategy from amongst the two major approaches that have been proposed to prevent CR-BSI? 3. What uncertainty is there in this decision and can a research agenda to improve decision-making in this area be identified? Methods: A decision analytic model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify an efficient approach to preventing CR-BSI in Queensland Health intensive care units. A Markov model was developed in conjunction with a panel of clinical experts which described the epidemiology and prognosis of CR-BSI. The model was parameterised using data systematically identified from the published literature and extracted from routine databases. The quality of data used in the model and its validity to clinical experts and sensitivity to modelling assumptions was assessed. Two separate economic evaluations were conducted. The first evaluation compared all commercially available A-CVCs alongside uncoated catheters to identify which was cost-effective for routine use. The uncertainty in this decision was estimated along with the value of collecting further information to inform the decision. The second evaluation compared the use of A-CVCs to a catheter care bundle. We were unable to estimate the cost of the bundle because it is unclear what the full resource requirements are for its implementation, and what the value of these would be in an Australian context. As such we undertook a threshold analysis to identify the cost and effectiveness thresholds at which a hypothetical bundle would dominate the use of A-CVCs under various clinical scenarios. Results: In the first evaluation of A-CVCs, the findings from the baseline analysis, in which uncertainty is not considered, show that the use of any of the four A-CVCs will result in health gains accompanied by cost-savings. The MR catheters dominate the baseline analysis generating 1.64 QALYs and cost-savings of $130,289 per 1.000 catheters. With uncertainty, and based on current information, the MR catheters remain the optimal decision and return the highest average net monetary benefits ($948 per catheter) relative to all other catheter types. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested, however, the probability of error in this conclusion is high, 62% in the baseline scenario. Using a value of $40,000 per QALY, the expected value of perfect information associated with this decision is $7.3 million. An analysis of the expected value of perfect information for individual parameters suggests that it may be worthwhile for future research to focus on providing better estimates of the mortality attributable to CR-BSI and the effectiveness of both SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters. In the second evaluation of the catheter care bundle relative to A-CVCs, the results which do not consider uncertainty indicate that a bundle must achieve a relative risk of CR-BSI of at least 0.45 to be cost-effective relative to MR catheters. If the bundle can reduce rates of infection from 2.5% to effectively zero, it is cost-effective relative to MR catheters if national implementation costs are less than $2.6 million ($56,610 per ICU). If the bundle can achieve a relative risk of 0.34 (comparable to that reported in the literature) it is cost-effective, relative to MR catheters, if costs over an 18 month period are below $613,795 nationally ($13,343 per ICU). Once uncertainty in the decision is considered, the cost threshold for the bundle increases to $2.2 million. Therefore, if each of the 46 Level III ICUs could implement an 18 month catheter care bundle for less than $47,826 each, this approach would be cost effective relative to A-CVCs. However, the uncertainty is substantial and the probability of error in concluding that the bundle is the cost-effective approach at a cost of $2.2 million is 89%. Conclusions: This work highlights that infection control to prevent CR-BSI is an efficient use of healthcare resources in the Australian context. If there is no further investment in infection control, an opportunity cost is incurred, which is the potential for a more efficient healthcare system. Minocycline/rifampicin catheters are the optimal choice of antimicrobial catheter for routine use in Australian Level III ICUs, however, if a catheter care bundle implemented in Australia was as effective as those used in the large studies in the United States it would be preferred over the catheters if it was able to be implemented for less than $47,826 per Level III ICU. Uncertainty is very high in this decision and arises from multiple sources. There are likely greater costs to this uncertainty for A-CVCs, which may carry hidden costs, than there are for a catheter care bundle, which is more likely to provide indirect benefits to clinical practice and patient safety. Research into the mortality attributable to CR-BSI, the effectiveness of SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters and the cost and effectiveness of a catheter care bundle in Australia should be prioritised to reduce uncertainty in this decision. This thesis provides the economic evidence to inform one area of infection control, but there are many other infection control decisions for which information about the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions does not exist. This work highlights some of the challenges and benefits to generating and using economic evidence for infection control decision-making and provides support for commissioning more research into the cost-effectiveness of infection control.

The jump component of S&P 500 volatility and the VIX index

Much research has investigated the differences between option implied volatilities and econometric model-based forecasts. Implied volatility is a market determined forecast, in contrast to model-based forecasts that employ some degree of smoothing of past volatility to generate forecasts. Implied volatility has the potential to reflect information that a model-based forecast could not. This paper considers two issues relating to the informational content of the S&P 500 VIX implied volatility index. First, whether it subsumes information on how historical jump activity contributed to the price volatility, followed by whether the VIX reflects any incremental information pertaining to future jump activity relative to model-based forecasts. It is found that the VIX index both subsumes information relating to past jump contributions to total volatility and reflects incremental information pertaining to future jump activity. This issue has not been examined previously and expands our understanding of how option markets form their volatility forecasts.

Facilitating unlearning during implementation of new technology

Purpose – One of the critical issues for change management, particularly in relation to the implementation of new technologies, is the existence of prior knowledge and established mental models which may hinder change efforts. Understanding unlearning and how it might assist during organizational change is a way to address this resistance. The purpose of this paper is to present research designed to identify specific factors that facilitate unlearning. Design/methodology/approach – Drawing together issues identified as potential influencers of unlearning, a survey questionnaire was developed and administered in an Australian corporation undergoing large-scale change due to the implementation of an enterprise information system. The results were analyzed to identify specific factors that impact on unlearning. Findings – Findings from this paper identify factors that hinder or help the unlearning process during times of change including understanding the need for change, the level of organizational support and training, assessment of the change, positive experience and informal support, the organization's history of change, individual's prior outlooks, and individuals' feelings and expectations. Research limitations/implications – The use of only one organization does not allow for comparisons between organizations of different sizes, cultures or industries and therefore extension of this research is recommended. Practical implications – For practitioners, this paper provides specific elements at both the level of individuals and the organization that need to be considered for optimal unlearning during times of change. Originality/value – Previous literature on unlearning has been predominantly conceptual and theoretical. These empirical findings serve to further an earlier model based on qualitative research into potential influencers of unlearning.

An economic case for systematic student monitoring and intervention in the first year in higher education

Previous work has established the effectiveness of systematically monitoring first year higher education students and intervening with those identified as at-risk of attrition. This nuts-and-bolts paper establishes an economic case for a systematic monitoring and intervention program, identifying the visible costs and benefits of such a program at a major Australian university. The benefit of such a program is measured in savings to the institution which would otherwise be lost revenue, in the form of retained equivalent full-time student load (EFTSL). The session will present an economic model based on a number of assumptions. These assumptions are explored along with the applicability of the model to other institutions.