Modelling resilience in a water supply system : contrasting conditions of drought and flood

This paper presents an approach to modelling the resilience of a generic (potable) water supply system. The system is contextualized as a meta-system consisting of three subsystems to represent the natural catchment, the water treatment plant and the water distribution infrastructure for urban use. An abstract mathematical model of the meta-system is disaggregated progressively to form a cascade of equations forming a relational matrix of models. This allows the investigation of commonly implicit relationships between various operational components within the meta system, the in-depth understanding of specific system components and influential factors and the incorporation of explicit disturbances to explore system behaviour. Consequently, this will facilitate long-term decision making to achieve sustainable solutions for issues such as, meeting a growing demand or managing supply-side influences in the meta-system under diverse water availability regimes. This approach is based on the hypothesis that the means to achieve resilient supply of water may be better managed by modelling the effects of changes at specific levels that have a direct or in some cases indirect impact on higher-order outcomes. Additionally, the proposed strategy allows the definition of approaches to combine disparate data sets to synthesise previously missing or incomplete higher-order information, a scientifically robust means to define and carry out meta-analyses using knowledge from diverse yet relatable disciplines relevant to different levels of the system and for enhancing the understanding of dependencies and inter-dependencies of variable factors at various levels across the meta-system. The proposed concept introduces an approach for modelling a complex infrastructure system as a meta system which consists of a combination of bio-ecological, technical and socio-technical subsystems.

Modeling heat and mass transfer process during convection drying of fruit

Fruit drying is a process of removing moisture to preserve fruits by preventing microbial spoilage. It increases shelf life, reduce weight and volume thus minimize packing, storage, and transportation cost and enable storage of food under ambient environment. But, it is a complex process which involves combination of heat and mass transfer and physical property change and shrinkage of the material. In this background, the aim of this paper to develop a mathematical model to simulate coupled heat and mass transfer during convective drying of fruit. This model can be used predict the temperature and moisture distribution inside the fruits during drying. Two models were developed considering shrinkage dependent and temperature dependent moisture diffusivity and the results were compared. The governing equations of heat and mass transfer are solved and a parametric study has been done with Comsol Multiphysics 4.3. The predicted results were validated with experimental data.

Optimal planning of electric-vehicle charging stations in distribution systems

With the progressive exhaustion of fossil energy and the enhanced awareness of environmental protection, more attention is being paid to electric vehicles (EVs). Inappropriate siting and sizing of EV charging stations could have negative effects on the development of EVs, the layout of the city traffic network, and the convenience of EVs' drivers, and lead to an increase in network losses and a degradation in voltage profiles at some nodes. Given this background, the optimal sites of EV charging stations are first identified by a two-step screening method with environmental factors and service radius of EV charging stations considered. Then, a mathematical model for the optimal sizing of EV charging stations is developed with the minimization of total cost associated with EV charging stations to be planned as the objective function and solved by a modified primal-dual interior point algorithm (MPDIPA). Finally, simulation results of the IEEE 123-node test feeder have demonstrated that the developed model and method cannot only attain the reasonable planning scheme of EV charging stations, but also reduce the network loss and improve the voltage profile.

Multiphysics modelling of convective drying of food materials

Currently, 1.3 billion tonnes of food is lost annually due to lack of proper processing and preservation method. Drying is one of the easiest and oldest methods of food processing which can contribute to reduce that huge losses, combat hunger and promote food security. Drying increase shelf life, reduce weight and volume of food thus minimize packing, storage, and transportation cost and enable storage of food under ambient environment. However, drying is a complex process which involves combination of heat and mass transfer and physical property change and shrinkage of the food material. Modelling of this process is essential to optimize the drying kinetics and improve energy efficiency of the process. Since material properties varies with moisture content, the models should not consider constant materials properties, constant diffusion .The objective of this paper is to develop a multiphysics based mathematical model to simulate coupled heat and mass transfer during convective drying of fruit considering variable material properties. This model can be used predict the temperature and moisture distribution inside the food during drying. Effect of different drying air temperature and drying air velocity on drying kinetics has been demonstrated. The governing equations of heat and mass transfer were solved with Comsol Multiphysics 4.3.

A new approach for power system black-start decision-making with vague set theory

Power system restoration after a large area outage involves many factors, and the procedure is usually very complicated. A decision-making support system could then be developed so as to find the optimal black-start strategy. In order to evaluate candidate black-start strategies, some indices, usually both qualitative and quantitative, are employed. However, it may not be possible to directly synthesize these indices, and different extents of interactions may exist among these indices. In the existing black-start decision-making methods, qualitative and quantitative indices cannot be well synthesized, and the interactions among different indices are not taken into account. The vague set, an extended version of the well-developed fuzzy set, could be employed to deal with decision-making problems with interacting attributes. Given this background, the vague set is first employed in this work to represent the indices for facilitating the comparisons among them. Then, a concept of the vague-valued fuzzy measure is presented, and on that basis a mathematical model for black-start decision-making developed. Compared with the existing methods, the proposed method could deal with the interactions among indices and more reasonably represent the fuzzy information. Finally, an actual power system is served for demonstrating the basic features of the developed model and method.

Growth of confined cancer spheroids : a combined experimental marker, critical modelling approach

A critical step in the dissemination of ovarian cancer is the formation of multicellular spheroids from cells shed from the primary tumour. The objectives of this study were to apply bioengineered three-dimensional (3D) microenvironments for culturing ovarian cancer spheroids in vitro and simultaneously to build on a mathematical model describing the growth of multicellular spheroids in these biomimetic matrices. Cancer cells derived from human epithelial ovarian carcinoma were embedded within biomimetic hydrogels of varying stiffness and grown for up to 4 weeks. Immunohistochemistry, imaging and growth analyses were used to quantify the dependence of cell proliferation and apoptosis on matrix stiffness, long-term culture and treatment with the anti-cancer drug paclitaxel. The mathematical model was formulated as a free boundary problem in which each spheroid was treated as an incompressible porous medium. The functional forms used to describe the rates of cell proliferation and apoptosis were motivated by the experimental work and predictions of the mathematical model compared with the experimental output. This work aimed to establish whether it is possible to simulate solid tumour growth on the basis of data on spheroid size, cell proliferation and cell death within these spheroids. The mathematical model predictions were in agreement with the experimental data set and simulated how the growth of cancer spheroids was influenced by mechanical and biochemical stimuli including matrix stiffness, culture duration and administration of a chemotherapeutic drug. Our computational model provides new perspectives on experimental results and has informed the design of new 3D studies of chemoresistance of multicellular cancer spheroids.

Numerical simulation of stochastic ordinary differential equations in biomathematical modelling

In this work we discuss the effects of white and coloured noise perturbations on the parameters of a mathematical model of bacteriophage infection introduced by Beretta and Kuang in [Math. Biosc. 149 (1998) 57]. We numerically simulate the strong solutions of the resulting systems of stochastic ordinary differential equations (SDEs), with respect to the global error, by means of numerical methods of both Euler-Taylor expansion and stochastic Runge-Kutta type.

Ranked critical factors in PPP briefings

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are increasingly used to procure Australian infrastructure projects. As with all construction projects, the early briefing stages are often the most crucial in determining a successful outcome. There is, however, a lack of systematic research on the type and nature of the critical factors affecting the effectiveness and efficiency of PPP during this period. A literature review is presented of PPP usage in Australia, in which four main categories of factors (procurement, stakeholder, risk, and finance) are identified, each with several subfactors. A questionnaire survey involving state government stakeholders is also described, and a mathematical model that ranks the factors involved is developed. This is followed by an examination of the potential of the factors to help improve the PPP briefing stage for both public and private sectors.

Prediction of multilocus identity-by-descent

Previous studies have enabled exact prediction of probabilities of identity-by-descent (IBD) in randommating populations for a few loci (up to four or so), with extension to more using approximate regression methods. Here we present a precise predictor of multiple-locus IBD using simple formulas based on exact results for two loci. In particular, the probability of non-IBD X ABC at each of ordered loci A, B, and C can be well approximated by XABC = XABXBC/XB and generalizes to X123. . .k = X12X23. . .Xk-1,k/ Xk-2, where X is the probability of non-IBD at each locus. Predictions from this chain rule are very precise with population bottlenecks and migration, but are rather poorer in the presence of mutation. From these coefficients, the probabilities of multilocus IBD and non-IBD can also be computed for genomic regions as functions of population size, time, and map distances. An approximate but simple recurrence formula is also developed, which generally is less accurate than the chain rule but is more robust with mutation. Used together with the chain rule it leads to explicit equations for non-IBD in a region. The results can be applied to detection of quantitative trait loci (QTL) by computing the probability of IBD at candidate loci in terms of identity-by-state at neighboring markers.

Sensitivity of edge detection methods for quantifying cell migration assays

Quantitative imaging methods to analyze cell migration assays are not standardized. Here we present a suite of two–dimensional barrier assays describing the collective spreading of an initially–confined population of 3T3 fibroblast cells. To quantify the motility rate we apply two different automatic image detection methods to locate the position of the leading edge of the spreading population after 24, 48 and 72 hours. These results are compared with a manual edge detection method where we systematically vary the detection threshold. Our results indicate that the observed spreading rates are very sensitive to the choice of image analysis tools and we show that a standard measure of cell migration can vary by as much as 25% for the same experimental images depending on the details of the image analysis tools. Our results imply that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to meaningfully compare previously published measures of cell migration since previous results have been obtained using different image analysis techniques and the details of these techniques are not always reported. Using a mathematical model, we provide a physical interpretation of our edge detection results. The physical interpretation is important since edge detection algorithms alone do not specify any physical measure, or physical definition, of the leading edge of the spreading population. Our modeling indicates that variations in the image threshold parameter correspond to a consistent variation in the local cell density. This means that varying the threshold parameter is equivalent to varying the location of the leading edge in the range of approximately 1–5% of the maximum cell density.

Host selection in phytophagous insects: a new explanation for learning in adults

Insect learning can change the preferences an egg laying female displays towards different host plant species. Current hypotheses propose that learning may be advantageous in adult host selection behaviour through improved recognition, accuracy or selectivity in foraging. In this paper, we present a hypothesis for when learning can be advantageous without such improvements in adult host foraging. Specifically, that learning can be an advantageous strategy for egg laying females when larvae must feed on more than one plant in order to complete development, if the fitness of larvae is reduced when they switch to a different host species. Here, larvae benefit from developing on the most abundant host species, which is the most likely choice of host for an adult insect which increases its preference for a host species through learning. The hypothesis is formalised with a mathematical model and we provide evidence from studies on the behavioural ecology of a number of insect species which demonstrate that the assumptions of this hypothesis may frequently be fulfilled in nature. We discuss how multiple mechanisms may convey advantages in insect learning and that benefits to larval development, which have so far been overlooked, should be considered in explanations for the widespread occurrence of learning.

Design and interpretation of cell trajectory assays

Cell trajectory data is often reported in the experimental cell biology literature to distinguish between different types of cell migration. Unfortunately, there is no accepted protocol for designing or interpreting such experiments and this makes it difficult to quantitatively compare different published data sets and to understand how changes in experimental design influence our ability to interpret different experiments. Here, we use an individual based mathematical model to simulate the key features of a cell trajectory experiment. This shows that our ability to correctly interpret trajectory data is extremely sensitive to the geometry and timing of the experiment, the degree of motility bias and the number of experimental replicates. We show that cell trajectory experiments produce data that is most reliable when the experiment is performed in a quasi 1D geometry with a large number of identically{prepared experiments conducted over a relatively short time interval rather than few trajectories recorded over particularly long time intervals.

Preferential invasion by Plasmodium merozoites and the self-regulation of parasite burden

The preferential invasion of particular red blood cell (RBC) age classes may offer a mechanism by which certain species of Plasmodia regulate their population growth. Asexual reproduction of the parasite within RBCs exponentially increases the number of circulating parasites; limiting this explosion in parasite density may be key to providing sufficient time for the parasite to reproduce, and for the host to develop a specific immune response. It is critical that the role of preferential invasion in infection is properly understood to model the within-host dynamics of different Plasmodia species. We develop a simulation model to show that limiting the range of RBC age classes available for invasion is a credible mechanism for restricting parasite density, one which is equally as important as the maximum parasite replication rate and the duration of the erythrocytic cycle. Different species of Plasmodia that regularly infect humans exhibit different preferences for RBC invasion, with all species except P. falciparum appearing to exhibit a combination of characteristics which are able to selfregulate parasite density.

Effect of temperature distribution on predicting quality of microwave dehydrated food

During food drying, many other changes occur simultaneously, resulting in an improved overall quality. Among the quality attributes, the structure and its corresponding color influence directly or indirectly other properties of food. In addition, these quality attributes are affected by process conditions, material components and the raw structure of the foodstuff. In this work, the temperature distribution within food materials during microwave drying has been taken into consideration to observe its role in color modification. In order to determine the temperature distribution of microwave-dried food (apple), a thermal imaging camera has been used. The image acquired from the digital camera has been analysed using image J software in order to get the color change of fresh and dried apple. The results show that temperature distribution plays an important role in determining the quality of the food. The thermal imaging camera was deployed to observe the temperature distribution within food materials during drying. It is clearly observed from the higher value of (ERGB =102) and the uneven color change that uneven temperature distribution can influence customer perceptions of the quality of dried food. Simulation of a mathematical model of temperature distribution during microwave drying can make it possible to predict the colour and texture of the microwaved food.

Cost-effectiveness of a telephone-delivered education programme to prevent early childhood caries in a disadvantaged area : a cohort study

Objectives Early childhood caries is a highly destructive dental disease which is compounded by the need for young children to be treated under general anaesthesia. In Australia, there are long waiting periods for treatment at public hospitals. In this paper, we examined the costs and patient outcomes of a prevention programme for early childhood caries to assess its value for government services. Design Cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model. Setting Public dental patients in a low socioeconomic, socially disadvantaged area in the State of Queensland, Australia. Participants Children aged 6 months to 6 years received either a telephone prevention programme or usual care. Primary and secondary outcome measures A mathematical model was used to assess caries incidence and public dental treatment costs for a cohort of children. Healthcare costs, treatment probabilities and caries incidence were modelled from 6 months to 6 years of age based on trial data from mothers and their children who received either a telephone prevention programme or usual care. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the findings to uncertainty in the model estimates. Results By age 6 years, the telephone intervention programme had prevented an estimated 43 carious teeth and saved £69 984 in healthcare costs per 100 children. The results were sensitive to the cost of general anaesthesia (cost-savings range £36 043–£97 298) and the incidence of caries in the prevention group (cost-savings range £59 496–£83 368) and usual care (cost-savings range £46 833–£93 328), but there were cost savings in all scenarios. Conclusions A telephone intervention that aims to prevent early childhood caries is likely to generate considerable and immediate patient benefits and cost savings to the public dental health service in disadvantaged communities.