Building adaptable agent-based models – application to the electricity distribution network

Agent-based modelling (ABM), like other modelling techniques, is used to answer specific questions from real world systems that could otherwise be expensive or impractical. Its recent gain in popularity can be attributed to some degree to its capacity to use information at a fine level of detail of the system, both geographically and temporally, and generate information at a higher level, where emerging patterns can be observed. This technique is data-intensive, as explicit data at a fine level of detail is used and it is computer-intensive as many interactions between agents, which can learn and have a goal, are required. With the growing availability of data and the increase in computer power, these concerns are however fading. Nonetheless, being able to update or extend the model as more information becomes available can become problematic, because of the tight coupling of the agents and their dependence on the data, especially when modelling very large systems. One large system to which ABM is currently applied is the electricity distribution where thousands of agents representing the network and the consumers’ behaviours are interacting with one another. A framework that aims at answering a range of questions regarding the potential evolution of the grid has been developed and is presented here. It uses agent-based modelling to represent the engineering infrastructure of the distribution network and has been built with flexibility and extensibility in mind. What distinguishes the method presented here from the usual ABMs is that this ABM has been developed in a compositional manner. This encompasses not only the software tool, which core is named MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model) but the model itself. Using such approach enables the model to be extended as more information becomes available or modified as the electricity system evolves, leading to an adaptable model. Two well-known modularity principles in the software engineering domain are information hiding and separation of concerns. These principles were used to develop the agent-based model on top of OSGi and Eclipse plugins which have good support for modularity. Information regarding the model entities was separated into a) assets which describe the entities’ physical characteristics, and b) agents which describe their behaviour according to their goal and previous learning experiences. This approach diverges from the traditional approach where both aspects are often conflated. It has many advantages in terms of reusability of one or the other aspect for different purposes as well as composability when building simulations. For example, the way an asset is used on a network can greatly vary while its physical characteristics are the same – this is the case for two identical battery systems which usage will vary depending on the purpose of their installation. While any battery can be described by its physical properties (e.g. capacity, lifetime, and depth of discharge), its behaviour will vary depending on who is using it and what their aim is. The model is populated using data describing both aspects (physical characteristics and behaviour) and can be updated as required depending on what simulation is to be run. For example, data can be used to describe the environment to which the agents respond to – e.g. weather for solar panels, or to describe the assets and their relation to one another – e.g. the network assets. Finally, when running a simulation, MODAM calls on its module manager that coordinates the different plugins, automates the creation of the assets and agents using factories, and schedules their execution which can be done sequentially or in parallel for faster execution. Building agent-based models in this way has proven fast when adding new complex behaviours, as well as new types of assets. Simulations have been run to understand the potential impact of changes on the network in terms of assets (e.g. installation of decentralised generators) or behaviours (e.g. response to different management aims). While this platform has been developed within the context of a project focussing on the electricity domain, the core of the software, MODAM, can be extended to other domains such as transport which is part of future work with the addition of electric vehicles.

The effect of varying diagnostic terminology within patient discharge information on expected mild traumatic brain injury outcome

This study aimed to determine if systematic variation of the diagnostic terminology embedded within written discharge information (i.e., concussion or mild traumatic brain injury, mTBI) would produce different expected symptoms and illness perceptions. We hypothesized that compared to concussion advice, mTBI advice would be associated with worse outcomes. Sixty-two volunteers with no history of brain injury or neurological disease were randomly allocated to one of two conditions in which they read a mTBI vignette followed by information that varied only by use of the embedded terms concussion (n = 28) or mTBI (n = 34). Both groups reported illness perceptions (timeline and consequences subscale of the Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised) and expected Postconcussion Syndrome (PCS) symptoms 6 months post injury (Neurobehavioral Symptom Inventory, NSI). Statistically significant group differences due to terminology were found on selected NSI scores (i.e., total, cognitive and sensory symptom cluster scores (concussion > mTBI)), but there was no effect of terminology on illness perception. When embedded in discharge advice, diagnostic terminology affects some but not all expected outcomes. Given that such expectations are a known contributor to poor mTBI outcome, clinicians should consider the potential impact of varied terminology on their patients.

Comparing skin biopsy with confocal microscopy : diagnostic yield of nerve fiber density

Background and aims: The assessment of intra-epidermal nerve fiber density (IENFD) in skin biopsies and corneal nerve fiber density (CNFD) using corneal confocal microscopy (CCM) provides promising techniques to detect small nerve fiber damage in patients with peripheral neuropathy. To help define the clinical utility of each of these techniques in patients with diabetic neuropathy we have assessed sensitivity and specificity of IENFD and CNFD in predicting the following: 1) diabetic polyneuropathy (DPN); 2) risk of foot ulceration (RFU); 3) initial small fiber neuropathy (iSFN); 4) severe small fiber neuropathy (sSFN)...

"Candidatus Similichlamydia laticola", a novel Chlamydia-like agent of epitheliocystis in seven consecutive cohorts of farmed Australian barramundi, lates calcarifer (Bloch)

Six consecutively hatched cohorts and one cohort of pre-hatch eggs of farmed barramundi (Lates calcarifer) from south Australia were examined for Chlamydia-like organisms associated with epitheliocystis. To identify and characterise the bacteria, 59 gill samples and three pre-hatch egg samples were processed for histology, in situ hybridisation and 16S rRNA amplification, sequencing and comprehensive phylogenetic analysis. Cases of epitheliocystis were observed microscopically and characterised by membrane-enclosed basophilic cysts filled with a granular material that caused hypertrophy of the epithelial cells. In situ hybridisation with a Chlamydiales-specific probe lead to specific labelling of the epitheliocystis inclusions within the gill epithelium. Two distinct but closely related 16S rRNA chlamydial sequences were amplified from gill DNA across the seven cohorts, including from pre-hatch eggs. These genotype sequences were found to be novel, sharing 97.1 - 97.5% similarity to the next closest 16S rRNA sequence, Ca. Similichlamydia latridicola, from Australian striped trumpeter. Comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of these genotype sequences against representative members of the Chlamydiales order and against other epitheliocystis agents revealed these Chlamydia-like organisms to be novel and taxonomically placed them within the recently proposed genus Ca. Similichlamydia. Following Fredricks and Relman's molecular postulates and based on these observations, we propose the epitheliocystis agents of barramundi to be known as "Candidatus Similichlamydia laticola" (sp. nov.).

Molecular characterization of "Candidatus Parilichlamydia carangidicola," a novel Chlamydia-like epitheliocystis agent in yellowtail kingfish, Seriola lalandi (Valenciennes), and the proposal of a new family, "Candidatus Parilichlamydiaceae" fam. nov. (order Chlamydiales).

Three cohorts of farmed yellowtail kingfish (Seriola lalandi) from South Australia were examined for Chlamydia-like organisms associated with epitheliocystis. To characterize the bacteria, 38 gill samples were processed for histopathology, electron microscopy, and 16S rRNA amplification, sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis. Microscopically, the presence of membrane-enclosed cysts was observed within the gill lamellae. Also observed was hyperplasia of the epithelial cells with cytoplasmic vacuolization and fusion of the gill lamellae. Transmission electron microscopy revealed morphological features of the reticulate and intermediate bodies typical of members of the order Chlamydiales. A novel 1,393-bp 16S chlamydial rRNA sequence was amplified from gill DNA extracted from fish in all cohorts over a 3-year period that corresponded to the 16S rRNA sequence amplified directly from laser-dissected cysts. This sequence was only 87% similar to the reported "Candidatus Piscichlamydia salmonis" (AY462244) from Atlantic salmon and Arctic charr. Phylogenetic analysis of this sequence against 35 Chlamydia and Chlamydia-like bacteria revealed that this novel bacterium belongs to an undescribed family lineage in the order Chlamydiales. Based on these observations, we propose this bacterium of yellowtail kingfish be known as "Candidatus Parilichlamydia carangidicola" and that the new family be known as "Candidatus Parilichlamydiaceae."

Molecular characterization of "Candidatus Similichlamydia latridicola" gen. nov., sp. nov. (Chlamydiales: "Candidatus Parilichlamydiaceae"), a novel Chlamydia-like epitheliocystis agent in the striped trumpeter, Latris lineata (Forster)

Histological analysis of gill samples taken from individuals of Latris lineata reared in aquaculture in Tasmania, Australia, and those sampled from the wild revealed the presence of epitheliocystis-like basophilic inclusions. Subsequent morphological, in situ hybridization, and molecular analyses were performed to confirm the presence of this disease and discovered a Chlamydia-like organism associated with this condition, and the criteria set by Fredericks and Relman's postulates were used to establish disease causation. Three distinct 16S rRNA genotypes were sequenced from 16 fish, and phylogenetic analyses of the nearly full-length 16S rRNA sequences generated for this bacterial agent indicated that they were nearly identical novel members of the order Chlamydiales. This new taxon formed a well-supported clade with "Candidatus Parilichlamydia carangidicola" from the yellowtail kingfish (Seriola lalandi). On the basis of sequence divergence over the 16S rRNA region relative to all other members of the order Chlamydiales, a new genus and species are proposed here for the Chlamydia-like bacterium from L. lineata, i.e., "Candidatus Similichlamydia latridicola" gen. nov., sp. nov.

Impact of passenger group dynamics on an airport evacuation process using an agent-based model

The safety of passengers is a major concern to airports. In the event of crises, having an effective and efficient evacuation process in place can significantly aid in enhancing passenger safety. Hence, it is necessary for airport operators to have an in-depth understanding of the evacuation process of their airport terminal. Although evacuation models have been used in studying pedestrian behaviour for decades, little research has been done in considering the evacuees’ group dynamics and the complexity of the environment. In this paper, an agent-based model is presented to simulate passenger evacuation process. Different exits were allocated to passengers based on their location and security level. The simulation results show that the evacuation time can be influenced by passenger group dynamics. This model also provides a convenient way to design airport evacuation strategy and examine its efficiency. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.

Intermittent Fugu parathyroid hormone 1 (1–34) is an anabolic bone agent in young male rats and osteopenic ovariectomized rats

Human parathyroid hormone (hPTH) is currently the only treatment for osteoporosis that forms new bone. Previously we described a fish equivalent, Fugu parathyroid hormone 1 (fPth1) which has hPTH-like biological activity in vitro despite fPth1(1–34) sharing only 53% identity with hPTH(1–34). Here we demonstrate the in vivo actions of fPth1(1–34) on bone. In study 1, young male rats were injected intermittently for 30 days with fPth1 [30 μg–1000 μg/kg body weight (b.w.), (30fPth1–1000fPth1)] or hPTH [30 μg–100 μg/kg b.w. (30hPTH–100hPTH)]. In proximal tibiae at low doses, the fPth1 was positively correlated with trabecular bone volume/total volume (TbBV/TV) while hPTH increased TbBV/TV, trabecular thickness (TbTh) and trabecular number (TbN). 500fPth1 and 1000fPth1 increased TbBV/TV, TbTh, TbN, mineral apposition rate (MAR) and bone formation rate/bone surface (BFR/BS) with a concomitant decrease in osteoclast surface and number. In study 2 ovariectomized (OVX), osteopenic rats and sham operated (SHAM) rats were injected intermittently with 500 μg/kg b.w. of fPth1 (500fPth1) for 11 weeks. 500fPth1 treatment resulted in increased TbBV/TV (151%) and TbTh (96%) in the proximal tibiae due to increased bone formation as assessed by BFR/BS (490%) and MAR (131%). The effect was restoration of TbBV/TV to SHAM levels without any effect on bone resorption. 500fPth1 also increased TbBV/TV and TbTh in the vertebrae (L6) and cortical thickness in the mid-femora increasing bone strength at these sites. fPth1 was similarly effective in SHAM rats. Notwithstanding the low amino acid sequence homology with hPTH (1–34), we have clearly established the efficacy of fPth1 (1–34) as an anabolic bone agent.

Agent-based modelling simulation case study : assessment of airport check-in and evacuation process by considering group travel behaviour of air passengers

Passenger experience has become a major factor that influences the success of an airport. In this context, passenger flow simulation has been used in designing and managing airports. However, most passenger flow simulations failed to consider the group dynamics when developing passenger flow models. In this paper, an agent-based model is presented to simulate passenger behaviour at the airport check-in and evacuation process. The simulation results show that the passenger behaviour can have significant influences on the performance and utilisation of services in airport terminals. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.

Agent-based application on different boarding strategies

In this paper we implemented six different boarding strategies (Wilma, Steffen, Reverse Pyramid, Random, Blocks and By letter) in order to minimize boarding time and turnaround time for Boeing 777 and Airbus 380 aircrafts by using Agent-based modelling approach. In the simulation, we divided passengers into six different categories which are group size more than 5 people, passengers with child, gold members, first class passengers, business class passengers and economy class passengers. Results from the simulation demonstrates Reverse Pyramid method is the best boarding method for Boeing 777 and Steffen method is the best boarding method for Airbus 380.

Modelling airport passenger group dynamics using an agent-based method

This thesis investigates the influence of passenger group dynamics on passengers' behaviour in an international airport. A simulation model is built to analyse passengers' behaviour during airport departure processes and during an emergency event. Results from the model showed that passengers' group dynamics have significant influences on the performance and utilisation of airport services. The agent-based model also provides a convenient way to investigate the effectiveness of space design and service allocations, which may contribute to the enhancement of passenger airport experiences.

A dynamic Web agent for verifying the security and integrity of a Web site's contents

To harness safe operation of Web-based systems in Web environments, we propose an SSPA (Server-based SHA-1 Page-digest Algorithm) to verify the integrity of Web contents before the server issues an HTTP response to a user request. In addition to standard security measures, our Java implementation of the SSPA, which is called the Dynamic Security Surveillance Agent (DSSA), provides further security in terms of content integrity to Web-based systems. Its function is to prevent the display of Web contents that have been altered through the malicious acts of attackers and intruders on client machines. This is to protect the reputation of organisations from cyber-attacks and to ensure the safe operation of Web systems by dynamically monitoring the integrity of a Web site's content on demand. We discuss our findings in terms of the applicability and practicality of the proposed system. We also discuss its time metrics, specifically in relation to its computational overhead at the Web server, as well as the overall latency from the clients' point of view, using different Internet access methods. The SSPA, our DSSA implementation, some experimental results and related work are all discussed

Treatment with the vascular disruptive agent OXi4503 induces an immediate and widespread epithelial to mesenchymal transition in the surviving tumor

Epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT) is considered an important mechanism in tumor resistance to drug treatments; however, in vivo observation of this process has been limited. In this study we demonstrated an immediate and widespread EMT involving all surviving tumor cells following treatment of a mouse model of colorectal liver metastases with the vascular disruptive agent OXi4503. EMT was characterized by significant downregulation of E-cadherin, relocation and nuclear accumulation of b-catenin as well as significant upregulation of ZEB1 and vimentin. Concomitantly, significant temporal upregulation in hypoxia and the pro-angiogenic growth factors hypoxia-inducible factor 1-alpha, hepatocyte growth factor, vascular endothelial growth factor and transforming growth factor-beta were seen within the surviving tumor. The process of EMT was transient and by 5 days after treatment tumor cell reversion to epithelial morphology was evident. This reversal, termed mesenchymal to epithelial transition (MET) is a process implicated in the development of new metastases but has not been observed in vivo histologically. Similar EMT changes were observed in response to other antitumor treatments including chemotherapy, thermal ablation, and antiangiogenic treatments in our mouse colorectal metastasis model and in a murine orthotopic breast cancer model after OXi4503 treatment. These results suggest that EMT may be an early mechanism adopted by tumors in response to injury and hypoxic stress, such that inhibition of EMT in combination with other therapies could play a significant role in future cancer therapy.

Follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma : a diagnostic challenge for clinicians and pathologists

The follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma (FVPTC) presents a type of papillary thyroid cancer that has created continuous diagnosis and treatment controversies among clinicians and pathologists. In this review, we describe the nomenclature, the clinical features, diagnostic problems and the molecular biology of FVPTC. It is important for clinicians to understand this entity as the diagnosis and management of this group of patient may be different from other patients with conventional PTC. The literature suggests that FVPTC behaves in a way similar, clinically, to conventional papillary thyroid carcinoma. However, there are some genotypic differences which may characterise this neoplasm. These parameters may account for the phenotypic variation described by some scientists in this type of cancer. Further understanding can only be achieved by defining strict pathological criteria, in-depth study of the molecular biology and long term follow-up of the optional patients with FVPTC.