Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Global sequence variation in the histidine-rich proteins 2 and 3 of Plasmodium falciparum: implications for the performance of malaria rapid diagnostic tests

Background Accurate diagnosis is essential for prompt and appropriate treatment of malaria. While rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) offer great potential to improve malaria diagnosis, the sensitivity of RDTs has been reported to be highly variable. One possible factor contributing to variable test performance is the diversity of parasite antigens. This is of particular concern for Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2)-detecting RDTs since PfHRP2 has been reported to be highly variable in isolates of the Asia-Pacific region. Methods The pfhrp2 exon 2 fragment from 458 isolates of P. falciparum collected from 38 countries was amplified and sequenced. For a subset of 80 isolates, the exon 2 fragment of histidine-rich protein 3 (pfhrp3) was also amplified and sequenced. DNA sequence and statistical analysis of the variation observed in these genes was conducted. The potential impact of the pfhrp2 variation on RDT detection rates was examined by analysing the relationship between sequence characteristics of this gene and the results of the WHO product testing of malaria RDTs: Round 1 (2008), for 34 PfHRP2-detecting RDTs. Results Sequence analysis revealed extensive variations in the number and arrangement of various repeats encoded by the genes in parasite populations world-wide. However, no statistically robust correlation between gene structure and RDT detection rate for P. falciparum parasites at 200 parasites per microlitre was identified. Conclusions The results suggest that despite extreme sequence variation, diversity of PfHRP2 does not appear to be a major cause of RDT sensitivity variation.

Topic dependent language modelling for spoken term detection

This paper investigates the effect of topic dependent language models (TDLM) on phonetic spoken term detection (STD) using dynamic match lattice spotting (DMLS). Phonetic STD consists of two steps: indexing and search. The accuracy of indexing audio segments into phone sequences using phone recognition methods directly affects the accuracy of the final STD system. If the topic of a document in known, recognizing the spoken words and indexing them to an intermediate representation is an easier task and consequently, detecting a search word in it will be more accurate and robust. In this paper, we propose the use of TDLMs in the indexing stage to improve the accuracy of STD in situations where the topic of the audio document is known in advance. It is shown that using TDLMs instead of the traditional general language model (GLM) improves STD performance according to figure of merit (FOM) criteria.

Detection of rain in acoustic recordings of the environment

Environmental monitoring has become increasingly important due to the significant impact of human activities and climate change on biodiversity. Environmental sound sources such as rain and insect vocalizations are a rich and underexploited source of information in environmental audio recordings. This paper is concerned with the classification of rain within acoustic sensor re-cordings. We present the novel application of a set of features for classifying environmental acoustics: acoustic entropy, the acoustic complexity index, spectral cover, and background noise. In order to improve the performance of the rain classification system we automatically classify segments of environmental recordings into the classes of heavy rain or non-rain. A decision tree classifier is experientially compared with other classifiers. The experimental results show that our system is effective in classifying segments of environmental audio recordings with an accuracy of 93% for the binary classification of heavy rain/non-rain.

Determination of urinary thymidine glycol using affinity chromatography, HPLC and post-column reaction detection : a biomarker of oxidative DNA damage upon kidney transplantation

Reactive oxygen species are generated during ischaemia-reperfusion of tissue. Oxidation of thymidine by hydroxyl radicals (HO) leads to the formation of 5,6-dihydroxy-5,6-dihydrothymidine (thymidine glycol). Thymidine glycol is excreted in urine and can be used as biomarker of oxidative DNA damage. Time dependent changes in urinary excretion rates of thymidine glycol were determined in six patients after kidney transplantation and in six healthy controls. A new analytical method was developed involving affinity chromatography and subsequent reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) with a post-column chemical reaction detector and endpoint fluorescence detection. The detection limit of this fluorimetric assay was 1.6 ng thymidine glycol per ml urine, which corresponds to about half of the physiological excretion level in healthy control persons. After kidney transplantation the urinary excretion rate of thymidine glycol increased gradually reaching a maximum around 48 h. The excretion rate remained elevated until the end of the observation period of 10 days. Severe proteinuria with an excretion rate of up to 7.2 g of total protein per mmol creatinine was also observed immediately after transplantation and declined within the first 24 h of allograft function (0.35 + 0.26 g/mmol creatinine). The protein excretion pattern, based on separation of urinary proteins on sodium dodecyl sulphate-polyacrylamide gel electrophorosis (SDS-PAGE), as well as excretion of individual biomarker proteins, indicated nonselective glomerular and tubular damage. The increased excretion of thymidine glycol after kidney transplantation may be explained by ischaemia-reperfusion induced oxidative DNA damage of the transplanted kidney.

Collection and determination of nucleotide metabolites in neonatal and adult saliva by high performance liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry

Saliva contains a number of biochemical components which may be useful for diagnosis/monitoring of metabolic disorders, and as markers of cancer or heart disease. Saliva collection is attractive as a non-invasive sampling method for infants and elderly patients. We present a method suitable for saliva collection from neonates. We have applied this technique for the determination of salivary nucleotide metabolites. Saliva was collected from 10 healthy neonates using washed cotton swabs, and directly from 10 adults. Two methods for saliva extraction from oral swabs were evaluated. The analytes were then separated using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS). The limits of detection for 14 purine/pyrimidine metabolites were variable, ranging from 0.01 to 1.0 mu M. Recovery of hydrophobic purine/pyrimidine metabolites from cotton tips was consistently high using water/acetonitrile extraction (92.7-111%) compared with water extraction alone. The concentrations of these metabolites were significantly higher in neonatal saliva than in adults. Preliminary ranges for nucleotide metabolites in neonatal and adult saliva are reported. Hypoxanthine and xanthine were grossly raised in neonates (49.3 +/- 25.4; 30.9 +/- 19.5 mu M respectively) compared to adults (4.3 +/- 3.3; 4.6 +/- 4.5 mu M); nucleosides were also markedly raised in neonates. This study focuses on three essential details: contamination of oral swabs during manufacturing and how to overcome this; weighing swabs to accurately measure small saliva volumes; and methods for extracting saliva metabolites of interest from cotton swabs. A method is described for determining nucleotide metabolites using HPLC with photo-diode array or MS/MS. The advantages of utilising saliva are highlighted. Nucleotide metabolites were not simply in equilibrium with plasma, but may be actively secreted into saliva, and this process is more active in neonates than adults. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ranking based clustering for social event detection

The problem of clustering a large document collection is not only challenged by the number of documents and the number of dimensions, but it is also affected by the number and sizes of the clusters. Traditional clustering methods fail to scale when they need to generate a large number of clusters. Furthermore, when the clusters size in the solution is heterogeneous, i.e. some of the clusters are large in size, the similarity measures tend to degrade. A ranking based clustering method is proposed to deal with these issues in the context of the Social Event Detection task. Ranking scores are used to select a small number of most relevant clusters in order to compare and place a document. Additionally,instead of conventional cluster centroids, cluster patches are proposed to represent clusters, that are hubs-like set of documents. Text, temporal, spatial and visual content information collected from the social event images is utilized in calculating similarity. Results show that these strategies allow us to have a balance between performance and accuracy of the clustering solution gained by the clustering method.

Differential effects of refractive blur on day and night-time driving performance

Purpose To investigate the effect of different levels of refractive blur on real-world driving performance measured under day and nighttime conditions. Methods Participants included 12 visually normal, young adults (mean age = 25.8 ± 5.2 years) who drove an instrumented research vehicle around a 4 km closed road circuit with three different levels of binocular spherical refractive blur (+0.50 diopter sphere [DS], +1.00 DS, +2.00 DS) compared with a baseline condition. The subjects wore optimal spherocylinder correction and the additional blur lenses were mounted in modified full-field goggles; the order of testing of the blur conditions was randomized. Driving performance was assessed in two different sessions under day and nighttime conditions and included measures of road signs recognized, hazard detection and avoidance, gap detection, lane-keeping, sign recognition distance, speed, and time to complete the course. Results Refractive blur and time of day had significant effects on driving performance (P < 0.05), where increasing blur and nighttime driving reduced performance on all driving tasks except gap judgment and lane keeping. There was also a significant interaction between blur and time of day (P < 0.05), such that the effects of blur were exacerbated under nighttime driving conditions; performance differences were evident even for +0.50 DS blur relative to baseline for some measures. Conclusions The effects of blur were greatest under nighttime conditions, even for levels of binocular refractive blur as low as +0.50 DS. These results emphasize the importance of accurate and up-to-date refractive correction of even low levels of refractive error when driving at night.

Circulating antibodies against Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich proteins 2 interfere with antigen detection by rapid diagnostic tests

Background Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for detection of Plasmodium falciparum infection that target P. falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2), a protein that circulates in the blood of patients infected with this species of malaria, are widely used to guide case management. Understanding determinants of PfHRP2 availability in circulation is therefore essential to understanding the performance of PfHRP2-detecting RDTs. Methods The possibility that pre-formed host anti-PfHRP2 antibodies may block target antigen detection, thereby causing false negative test results was investigated in this study. Results Anti-PfHRP2 antibodies were detected in 19/75 (25%) of plasma samples collected from patients with acute malaria from Cambodia, Nigeria and the Philippines, as well as in 3/28 (10.7%) asymptomatic Solomon Islands residents. Pre-incubation of plasma samples from subjects with high-titre anti-PfHRP2 antibodies with soluble PfHRP2 blocked the detection of the target antigen on two of the three brands of RDTs tested, leading to false negative results. Pre-incubation of the plasma with intact parasitized erythrocytes resulted in a reduction of band intensity at the highest parasite density, and a reduction of lower detection threshold by ten-fold on all three brands of RDTs tested. Conclusions These observations indicate possible reduced sensitivity for diagnosis of P. falciparum malaria using PfHRP2-detecting RDTs among people with high levels of specific antibodies and low density infection, as well as possible interference with tests configured to detect soluble PfHRP2 in saliva or urine samples. Further investigations are required to assess the impact of pre-formed anti-PfHRP2 antibodies on RDT performance in different transmission settings.

Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory

We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework.

Corner detection in images under different noise levels

Corner detection has shown its great importance in many computer vision tasks. However, in real-world applications, noise in the image strongly affects the performance of corner detectors. Few corner detectors have been designed to be robust to heavy noise by now, partly because the noise could be reduced by a denoising procedure. In this paper, we present a corner detector that could find discriminative corners in images contaminated by noise of different levels, without any denoising procedure. Candidate corners (i.e., features) are firstly detected by a modified SUSAN approach, and then false corners in noise are rejected based on their local characteristics. Features in flat regions are removed based on their intensity centroid, and features on edge structures are removed using the Harris response. The detector is self-adaptive to noise since the image signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is automatically estimated to choose an appropriate threshold for refining features. Experimental results show that our detector has better performance at locating discriminative corners in images with strong noise than other widely used corner or keypoint detectors.

Automatic UAV forced landing site detection using machine learning

The commercialization of aerial image processing is highly dependent on the platforms such as UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles). However, the lack of an automated UAV forced landing site detection system has been identified as one of the main impediments to allow UAV flight over populated areas in civilian airspace. This article proposes a UAV forced landing site detection system that is based on machine learning approaches including the Gaussian Mixture Model and the Support Vector Machine. A range of learning parameters are analysed including the number of Guassian mixtures, support vector kernels including linear, radial basis function Kernel (RBF) and polynormial kernel (poly), and the order of RBF kernel and polynormial kernel. Moreover, a modified footprint operator is employed during feature extraction to better describe the geometric characteristics of the local area surrounding a pixel. The performance of the presented system is compared to a baseline UAV forced landing site detection system which uses edge features and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) region type classifier. Experiments conducted on aerial image datasets captured over typical urban environments reveal improved landing site detection can be achieved with an SVM classifier with an RBF kernel using a combination of colour and texture features. Compared to the baseline system, the proposed system provides significant improvement in term of the chance to detect a safe landing area, and the performance is more stable than the baseline in the presence of changes to the UAV altitude.

Hand, foot and mouth disease in China: Evaluating an automated system for the detection of outbreaks

Objective To evaluate the performance of China’s infectious disease automated alert and response system in the detection of outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth (HFM) disease. Methods We estimated size, duration and delay in reporting HFM disease outbreaks from cases notified between 1 May 2008 and 30 April 2010 and between 1 May 2010 and 30 April 2012, before and after automatic alert and response included HFM disease. Sensitivity, specificity and timeliness of detection of aberrations in the incidence of HFM disease outbreaks were estimated by comparing automated detections to observations of public health staff. Findings The alert and response system recorded 106 005 aberrations in the incidence of HFM disease between 1 May 2010 and 30 April 2012 – a mean of 5.6 aberrations per 100 days in each county that reported HFM disease. The response system had a sensitivity of 92.7% and a specificity of 95.0%. The mean delay between the reporting of the first case of an outbreak and detection of that outbreak by the response system was 2.1 days. Between the first and second study periods, the mean size of an HFM disease outbreak decreased from 19.4 to 15.8 cases and the mean interval between the onset and initial reporting of such an outbreak to the public health emergency reporting system decreased from 10.0 to 9.1 days. Conclusion The automated alert and response system shows good sensitivity in the detection of HFM disease outbreaks and appears to be relatively rapid. Continued use of this system should allow more effective prevention and limitation of such outbreaks in China.

Fast and accurate business process drift detection

Business processes are prone to continuous and unexpected changes. Process workers may start executing a process differently in order to adjust to changes in workload, season, guidelines or regulations for example. Early detection of business process changes based on their event logs – also known as business process drift detection – enables analysts to identify and act upon changes that may otherwise affect process performance. Previous methods for business process drift detection are based on an exploration of a potentially large feature space and in some cases they require users to manually identify the specific features that characterize the drift. Depending on the explored feature set, these methods may miss certain types of changes. This paper proposes a fully automated and statistically grounded method for detecting process drift. The core idea is to perform statistical tests over the distributions of runs observed in two consecutive time windows. By adaptively sizing the window, the method strikes a trade-off between classification accuracy and drift detection delay. A validation on synthetic and real-life logs shows that the method accurately detects typical change patterns and scales up to the extent it is applicable for online drift detection.

Is the sun too bright in Queensland? An approach to robust outdoor colour beacon detection

Using cameras onboard a robot for detecting a coloured stationary target outdoors is a difficult task. Apart from the complexity of separating the target from the background scenery over different ranges, there are also the inconsistencies with direct and reflected illumination from the sun,clouds, moving and stationary objects. They can vary both the illumination on the target and its colour as perceived by the camera. In this paper, we analyse the effect of environment conditions, range to target, camera settings and image processing on the reported colours of various targets. The analysis indicates the colour space and camera configuration that provide the most consistent colour values over varying environment conditions and ranges. This information is used to develop a detection system that provides range and bearing to detected targets. The system is evaluated over various lighting conditions from bright sunlight, shadows and overcast days and demonstrates robust performance. The accuracy of the system is compared against a laser beacon detector with preliminary results indicating it to be a valuable asset for long-range coloured target detection.