Conducting statistical tests of hypotheses : five common misconceptions found in transportation research

Most statistical methods use hypothesis testing. Analysis of variance, regression, discrete choice models, contingency tables, and other analysis methods commonly used in transportation research share hypothesis testing as the means of making inferences about the population of interest. Despite the fact that hypothesis testing has been a cornerstone of empirical research for many years, various aspects of hypothesis tests commonly are incorrectly applied, misinterpreted, and ignored—by novices and expert researchers alike. On initial glance, hypothesis testing appears straightforward: develop the null and alternative hypotheses, compute the test statistic to compare to a standard distribution, estimate the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis, and then make claims about the importance of the finding. This is an oversimplification of the process of hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing as applied in empirical research is examined here. The reader is assumed to have a basic knowledge of the role of hypothesis testing in various statistical methods. Through the use of an example, the mechanics of hypothesis testing is first reviewed. Then, five precautions surrounding the use and interpretation of hypothesis tests are developed; examples of each are provided to demonstrate how errors are made, and solutions are identified so similar errors can be avoided. Remedies are provided for common errors, and conclusions are drawn on how to use the results of this paper to improve the conduct of empirical research in transportation.

The concentric all-polyethylene Exeter acetabular component in primary total hip replacement

We report the long term outcome of the flangeless, cemented all polyethylene Exeter cup at a mean of 14.6 years (range 10-17) after operation. Of the 263 hips in 243 patients, 122 hips are still in situ, 112 patients (119 hips) have died, eighteen hips were revised, and three patients (four hips) had moved abroad and were lost to follow-up (1.5%). Radiographs demonstrated two sockets had migrated and six more had radiolucent lines in all three zones. The Kaplan Meier survivorship at 15 years with endpoint revision for all causes is 89.9% (95% CI 84.6 to 95.2%) and for aseptic cup loosening or lysis 91.7% (CI 86.6 to 96.8%). In 210 hips with a diagnosis of primary osteoarthritis survivorship for all causes is 93.2% (95% CI 88.1 to 98.3%), and for aseptic cup loosening 95.0% (CI 90.3 to 99.7%). The cemented all polyethylene Exeter cup has an excellent long-term survivorship.

The mobile phone as a multi OTP device using trusted computing

The rapid growth in the number of online services leads to an increasing number of different digital identities each user needs to manage. As a result, many people feel overloaded with credentials, which in turn negatively impact their ability to manage them securely. Passwords are perhaps the most common type of credential used today. To avoid the tedious task of remembering difficult passwords, users often behave less securely by using low entropy and weak passwords. Weak passwords and bad password habits represent security threats to online services. Some solutions have been developed to eliminate the need for users to create and manage passwords. A typical solution is based on giving the user a hardware token that generates one-time-passwords, i.e. passwords for single session or transaction usage. Unfortunately, most of these solutions do not satisfy scalability and/or usability requirements, or they are simply insecure. In this paper, we propose a scalable OTP solution using mobile phones and based on trusted computing technology that combines enhanced usability with strong security.

Upper-body morbidity following breast cancer treatment is common, may persist longer-term and adversely influences quality of life

Background: Impairments in upper-body function (UBF) are common following breast cancer. However, the relationship between arm morbidity and quality of life (QoL) remains unclear. This investigation uses longitudinal data to describe UBF in a population-based sample of women with breast cancer and examines its relationship with QoL. ---------- Methods: Australian women (n = 287) with unilateral breast cancer were assessed at three-monthly intervals, from six- to 18-months post-surgery (PS). Strength, endurance and flexibility were used to assess objective UBF, while the Disability of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire and the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy- Breast questionnaire were used to assess self-reported UBF and QoL, respectively. ---------- Results: Although mean UBF improved over time, up to 41% of women revealed declines in UBF between sixand 18-months PS. Older age, lower socioeconomic position, treatment on the dominant side, mastectomy, more extensive lymph node removal and having lymphoedema each increased odds of declines in UBF by at least twofold (p < 0.05). Lower baseline and declines in perceived UBF between six- and 18-months PS were each associated with poorer QoL at 18-months PS (p < 0.05). ---------- Conclusions: Significant upper-body morbidity is experienced by many following breast cancer treatment, persisting longer term, and adversely influencing the QoL of breast cancer survivors.

Work integrated learning as a component of the capstone experience in undergraduate law

Background: The “Curriculum renewal in legal education” project has been funded by the Australian Learning and Teaching Council with the core objectives being the articulation of a set of final year curriculum design principles, and the development of a model of a transferable final year program. Through these principles and the development of the model, it is anticipated that the final year experience for law students will provide greater opportunity for them to understand the relevance of their learning, and will enhance their capacity to make decisions regarding their career path. Discussion / Argument: This paper reports on the project’s progress to date, and presents an argument for the inclusion of work integrated learning (WIL) as a component of the final year experience in undergraduate law programs. The project has identified that the two principal objectives of capstone experiences are to provide closure and to facilitate transition to post-university life. Reflective practice and Bruner’s spiral curriculum model are the central theoretical foundations by which these objectives can be achieved. Experiential learning is also increasingly seen as an essential element of a capstone experience. WIL is consistent with the objectives of capstones in focusing on the transition to professional practice and providing opportunities for reflection. However, the ability of WIL to meet all of the objectives of capstones, particularly closure and integration, may be limited. Conclusions / Implications: The paper posits that while WIL should be considered as a potential component of a capstone experience, educators should ensure that WIL is not equated with a capstone experience unless it is carefully designed to ensure that all of the objectives of capstones are met. Keywords: Work-integrated learning, capstone, final year experience, law

Component reliability estimations without field data

Maintenance activities in a large-scale engineering system are usually scheduled according to the lifetimes of various components in order to ensure the overall reliability of the system. Lifetimes of components can be deduced by the corresponding probability distributions with parameters estimated from past failure data. While failure data of the components is not always readily available, the engineers have to be content with the primitive information from the manufacturers only, such as the mean and standard deviation of lifetime, to plan for the maintenance activities. In this paper, the moment-based piecewise polynomial model (MPPM) are proposed to estimate the parameters of the reliability probability distribution of the products when only the mean and standard deviation of the product lifetime are known. This method employs a group of polynomial functions to estimate the two parameters of the Weibull Distribution according to the mathematical relationship between the shape parameter of two-parameters Weibull Distribution and the ratio of mean and standard deviation. Tests are carried out to evaluate the validity and accuracy of the proposed methods with discussions on its suitability of applications. The proposed method is particularly useful for reliability-critical systems, such as railway and power systems, in which the maintenance activities are scheduled according to the expected lifetimes of the system components.

A review of simulation models for railway systems

With the advances in computer hardware and software development techniques in the past 25 years, digital computer simulation of train movement and traction systems has been widely adopted as a standard computer-aided engineering tool [1] during the design and development stages of existing and new railway systems. Simulators of different approaches and scales are used extensively to investigate various kinds of system studies. Simulation is now proven to be the cheapest means to carry out performance predication and system behaviour characterisation. When computers were first used to study railway systems, they were mainly employed to perform repetitive but time-consuming computational tasks, such as matrix manipulations for power network solution and exhaustive searches for optimal braking trajectories. With only simple high-level programming languages available at the time, full advantage of the computing hardware could not be taken. Hence, structured simulations of the whole railway system were not very common. Most applications focused on isolated parts of the railway system. It is more appropriate to regard those applications as primarily mechanised calculations rather than simulations. However, a railway system consists of a number of subsystems, such as train movement, power supply and traction drives, which inevitably contains many complexities and diversities. These subsystems interact frequently with each other while the trains are moving; and they have their special features in different railway systems. To further complicate the simulation requirements, constraints like track geometry, speed restrictions and friction have to be considered, not to mention possible non-linearities and uncertainties in the system. In order to provide a comprehensive and accurate account of system behaviour through simulation, a large amount of data has to be organised systematically to ensure easy access and efficient representation; the interactions and relationships among the subsystems should be defined explicitly. These requirements call for sophisticated and effective simulation models for each component of the system. The software development techniques available nowadays allow the evolution of such simulation models. Not only can the applicability of the simulators be largely enhanced by advanced software design, maintainability and modularity for easy understanding and further development, and portability for various hardware platforms are also encouraged. The objective of this paper is to review the development of a number of approaches to simulation models. Attention is, in particular, given to models for train movement, power supply systems and traction drives. These models have been successfully used to enable various ‘what-if’ issues to be resolved effectively in a wide range of applications, such as speed profiles, energy consumption, run times etc.

Axial magnetic bearing development for the BiVACOR Rotary BiVAD/TAH

A suspension system for the BiVACOR biventricular assist device (BiVAD) has been developed and tested. The device features two semi-open centrifugal impellers mounted on a common rotating hub. Flow balancing is achieved through the movement of the rotor in the axial direction. The rotor is suspended in the pump casings by an active magnetic suspension system in the axial direction and a passive hydrodynamic bearing in the radial direction. This paper investigates the axial movement capacity of themagnetic bearing system and the power consumption at various operating points. The force capacity of the passive hydrodynamic bearing is investigated using a viscous glycerol solution. Axial rotor movement in the range of ±0.15 mm is confirmed and power consumption is under 15.5 W. The journal bearing is shown to stabilize the rotor in the radial direction at the required operating speed. Magnetic levitation is a viable suspension technique for the impeller of an artificial heart to improve device lifetime and reduce blood damage.

Functional status, postural stability and falls among older adults with glaucoma

Visual impairment is an important contributing factor in falls among older adults, which is one of the leading causes of injury and injury-related death in this population. Visual impairment is also associated with greater disability among older adults, including poorer health-related quality of life, increased frailty and reduced postural stability. The majority of this evidence, however, is based on measures of central visual function, rather than peripheral visual function. As such, there is comparatively limited research on the associations between peripheral visual function, disability and falls, and even fewer studies involving older adults with specific diseases which affect peripheral visual function, the most common of which is glaucoma. Glaucoma is one of the leading causes of irreversible vision loss among older adults, affecting around 3 per cent of adults aged over 60 years. The condition is characterised by retinal nerve fibre loss, primarily affecting peripheral visual function. Importantly, the number of older adults with glaucomatous visual impairment is projected to increase as the ageing population grows. The first component of the thesis examined the cross-sectional association between glaucomatous visual impairment and health-related quality of life (Study 1a), functional status (Study 1b) and postural stability (Study 1c) among older adults. A cohort of 74 community-dwelling adults with glaucoma (mean age 74.2 ± 5.9 years) was recruited and completed a baseline assessment. A number of visual function measures was assessed, including central visual function (visual acuity and contrast sensitivity), motion sensitivity, retinal nerve fibre analysis and monocular and binocular visual field measures (monocular 24-2 and binocular integrated visual fields (IVF): IVF-60 and IVF-120). The analyses focused on the associations between the outcomes measures and severity and location of visual field loss, as this is the primary visual function affected by glaucoma. In Study 1a, we examined the association between visual field loss and health-related quality of life, measured by the Short Form 36-item Health Survey (SF-36). Greater binocular visual field loss, on both IVF measures, was associated with lower SF-36 physical component scores, adjusted for age and gender (Pearson's r =|0.32| to |0.36|, p<0.001). Furthermore, inferior visual field loss was more strongly associated with the SF-36 physical component than superior field loss. No association was found between visual field loss and SF-36 mental component scores. The association between visual field loss and functional status was examined in Study 1b. Functional status outcomes measures included a physical activity questionnaire (Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly, PASE), performance tests (six-minute walk test, timed up and go test and lower leg strength) and an overall functional status score. Significant, but weak, correlations were found between binocular visual field loss and PASE and overall functional status scores, adjusted for age and gender (Pearson's r =|0.24| to |0.33|, p<0.05). Greater inferior visual field loss, independent of superior visual field loss, was significantly associated with poorer physical performance results and lower overall functional status scores. In Study 1c, we examined the association between visual field loss and postural stability, using a swaymeter device which recorded body movement during four conditions: eyes open and closed, on a firm and foam surface. Greater binocular visual field loss was associated with increased postural sway, both on firm and foam surfaces, independent of age and gender (Pearson’s r =|0.44| to |0.46|, p <0.001). Furthermore, inferior visual field was a stronger contributor to postural stability, more so than the superior visual field, particularly on the foam condition with the eyes open. Greater visual field loss was associated with a reduction in the visual contribution to postural sway, which underlies the observed association with postural sway. The second component of the thesis examined the association between severity and location of visual field loss and falls during a 12-month longitudinal follow-up. The number of falls was assessed prospectively using monthly fall calendars. Of the 71 participants who successfully completed the follow up (mean age 73.9 ± 5.7 years), 44% reported one or more falls, and around 20% reported two or more falls. After adjusting for age and gender, every 10 points missed on the IVF-120 increased the rate of falls by 25% (rate ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.08 - 1.44) or every 5dB reduction in IVF-60 increased the rate of falls by 47% (rate ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.16 - 1.87). Inferior visual field loss was a significant predictor of falls, more so than superior field loss, highlighting the importance of the inferior visual field area in safe and efficient navigation. Further analyses indicated that postural stability, more so than functional status, may be a potential mediating factor in the relationship between visual field loss and falls. Future research is required to confirm this causal pathway. In addition, the use of topical beta-blocker medications was not associated with an increased rate of falls in this cohort, compared with the use of other topical anti-glaucoma medications. In summary, greater binocular visual field loss among older adults with glaucoma was associated with poorer health-related quality of life in the physical domain, reduced functional status, greater postural instability and higher rates of falling. When the location of visual field loss was examined, inferior visual field loss was consistently more strongly associated with these outcomes than superior visual field loss. Insights gained from this research improve our understanding of the association between glaucomatous visual field loss and disability, and its link with falls among older adults. The clinical implications of this research include the need to include visual field screening in falls risk assessments among older adults and to raise awareness of these findings to eye care practitioners and adults with glaucoma. The findings also assist in developing further research to examine strategies to reduce disability and prevent falls among older adults with glaucoma to promote healthy ageing and independence for these individuals.

Modernising charity : steps to an alternative architecture for common law charity jurisprudence

This chapter addresses the question, how can the common law concept of charity law be modernised? There are difficulties with the present jurisprudential conception. The focus of the chapter is not on those difficulties, however, but rather on the development of an alternative architecture for common law jurisprudence. The conclusion to which the chapter comes is that charity law can be modernised by a series of steps to include all civil society organisations. It is possible if the ‘technical’ definition of charitable purpose is abandoned in favour of a contemporary, not technical concept of charitiable purpose. This conclusion is reached by proposing a framework, developed from the common law concept of charities, that reconciles into a cohesive jurisprudential architecture all of the laws applying to civil society organisations, not just charities. In this section, first the argument is contextualised in an idea of society and located in a gap in legal theory. An analogy is then offered to introduce the problems in the legal theory applying, not just to charities, but more broadly to civil society organisations. The substantive challenge of mapping an alternative jurisprudence is then taken in steps. The final substantive section conceptualises the changes inherent in a move beyond charities to a jurisprudence centred on civil society organisations and how this would bring legal theory into line with sectoral analysis in other disciplines.

Remediation strategies of shaft and common mode voltages in adjustable speed drive systems

AC motors are largely used in a wide range of modern systems, from household appliances to automated industry applications such as: ventilations systems, fans, pumps, conveyors and machine tool drives. Inverters are widely used in industrial and commercial applications due to the growing need for speed control in ASD systems. Fast switching transients and the common mode voltage, in interaction with parasitic capacitive couplings, may cause many unwanted problems in the ASD applications. These include shaft voltage and leakage currents. One of the inherent characteristics of Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) techniques is the generation of the common mode voltage, which is defined as the voltage between the electrical neutral of the inverter output and the ground. Shaft voltage can cause bearing currents when it exceeds the amount of breakdown voltage level of the thin lubricant film between the inner and outer rings of the bearing. This phenomenon is the main reason for early bearing failures. A rapid development in power switches technology has lead to a drastic decrement of switching rise and fall times. Because there is considerable capacitance between the stator windings and the frame, there can be a significant capacitive current (ground current escaping to earth through stray capacitors inside a motor) if the common mode voltage has high frequency components. This current leads to noises and Electromagnetic Interferences (EMI) issues in motor drive systems. These problems have been dealt with using a variety of methods which have been reported in the literature. However, cost and maintenance issues have prevented these methods from being widely accepted. Extra cost or rating of the inverter switches is usually the price to pay for such approaches. Thus, the determination of cost-effective techniques for shaft and common mode voltage reduction in ASD systems, with the focus on the first step of the design process, is the targeted scope of this thesis. An introduction to this research – including a description of the research problem, the literature review and an account of the research progress linking the research papers – is presented in Chapter 1. Electrical power generation from renewable energy sources, such as wind energy systems, has become a crucial issue because of environmental problems and a predicted future shortage of traditional energy sources. Thus, Chapter 2 focuses on the shaft voltage analysis of stator-fed induction generators (IG) and Doubly Fed Induction Generators DFIGs in wind turbine applications. This shaft voltage analysis includes: topologies, high frequency modelling, calculation and mitigation techniques. A back-to-back AC-DC-AC converter is investigated in terms of shaft voltage generation in a DFIG. Different topologies of LC filter placement are analysed in an effort to eliminate the shaft voltage. Different capacitive couplings exist in the motor/generator structure and any change in design parameters affects the capacitive couplings. Thus, an appropriate design for AC motors should lead to the smallest possible shaft voltage. Calculation of the shaft voltage based on different capacitive couplings, and an investigation of the effects of different design parameters are discussed in Chapter 3. This is achieved through 2-D and 3-D finite element simulation and experimental analysis. End-winding parameters of the motor are also effective factors in the calculation of the shaft voltage and have not been taken into account in previous reported studies. Calculation of the end-winding capacitances is rather complex because of the diversity of end winding shapes and the complexity of their geometry. A comprehensive analysis of these capacitances has been carried out with 3-D finite element simulations and experimental studies to determine their effective design parameters. These are documented in Chapter 4. Results of this analysis show that, by choosing appropriate design parameters, it is possible to decrease the shaft voltage and resultant bearing current in the primary stage of generator/motor design without using any additional active and passive filter-based techniques. The common mode voltage is defined by a switching pattern and, by using the appropriate pattern; the common mode voltage level can be controlled. Therefore, any PWM pattern which eliminates or minimizes the common mode voltage will be an effective shaft voltage reduction technique. Thus, common mode voltage reduction of a three-phase AC motor supplied with a single-phase diode rectifier is the focus of Chapter 5. The proposed strategy is mainly based on proper utilization of the zero vectors. Multilevel inverters are also used in ASD systems which have more voltage levels and switching states, and can provide more possibilities to reduce common mode voltage. A description of common mode voltage of multilevel inverters is investigated in Chapter 6. Chapter 7 investigates the elimination techniques of the shaft voltage in a DFIG based on the methods presented in the literature by the use of simulation results. However, it could be shown that every solution to reduce the shaft voltage in DFIG systems has its own characteristics, and these have to be taken into account in determining the most effective strategy. Calculation of the capacitive coupling and electric fields between the outer and inner races and the balls at different motor speeds in symmetrical and asymmetrical shaft and balls positions is discussed in Chapter 8. The analysis is carried out using finite element simulations to determine the conditions which will increase the probability of high rates of bearing failure due to current discharges through the balls and races.

Channel-aware routing in MANETs with route handoff

In wireless mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs), packet transmission is impaired by radio link fluctuations. This paper proposes a novel channel adaptive routing protocol which extends the Ad-hoc On-Demand Multipath Distance Vector routing protocol (AOMDV) to accommodate channel fading. Specifically, the proposed Channel Aware AOMDV (CA-AOMDV) uses the channel average non-fading duration as a routing metric to select stable links for path discovery, and applies a preemptive handoff strategy to maintain reliable connections by exploiting channel state information. Using the same information, paths can be reused when they become available again, rather than being discarded. We provide new theoretical results for the downtime and lifetime of a live-die-live multiple path system, as well as detailed theoretical expressions for common network performance measures, providing useful insights into the differences in performance between CA-AOMDV and AOMDV. Simulation and theoretical results show that CA-AOMDV has greatly improved network performance over AOMDV.

Which components of heart failure programs are effective? A meta-analysis of the outcomes of structured telephone support or telemonitoring as the primary component of heart failure management in 9,560 patients (Abridged Cochrane Review)

Aims--Telemonitoring (TM) and structured telephone support (STS) have the potential to deliver specialised management to more patients with chronic heart failure (CHF), but their efficacy is still to be proven. Objectives To review randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of TM or STS on all- cause mortality and all-cause and CHF-related hospitalisations in patients with CHF, as a non-invasive remote model of specialised disease-management intervention.--Methods and Results--Data sources:We searched 15 electronic databases and hand-searched bibliographies of relevant studies, systematic reviews, and meeting abstracts. Two reviewers independently extracted all data. Study eligibility and participants: We included any randomised controlled trials (RCT) comparing TM or STS to usual care of patients with CHF. Studies that included intensified management with additional home or clinic visits were excluded. Synthesis: Primary outcomes (mortality and hospitalisations) were analysed; secondary outcomes (cost, length of stay, quality of life) were tabulated.--Results: Thirty RCTs of STS and TM were identified (25 peer-reviewed publications (n=8,323) and five abstracts (n=1,482)). Of the 25 peer-reviewed studies, 11 evaluated TM (2,710 participants), 16 evaluated STS (5,613 participants) and two tested both interventions. TM reduced all-cause mortality (risk ratio (RR 0•66 [95% CI 0•54-0•81], p<0•0001) and STS showed similar trends (RR 0•88 [95% CI 0•76-1•01], p=0•08). Both TM (RR 0•79 [95% CI 0•67-0•94], p=0•008) and STS (RR 0•77 [95% CI 0•68-0•87], p<0•0001) reduced CHF-related hospitalisations. Both interventions improved quality of life, reduced costs, and were acceptable to patients. Improvements in prescribing, patient-knowledge and self-care, and functional class were observed.--Conclusion: TM and STS both appear effective interventions to improve outcomes in patients with CHF.

A novel load transfer scheme for peak load management in rural areas

This paper proposes a novel peak load management scheme for rural areas. The scheme transfers certain customers onto local nonembedded generators during peak load periods to alleviate network under voltage problems. This paper develops and presents this system by way of a case study in Central Queensland, Australia. A methodology is presented for determining the best location for the nonembedded generators as well as the number of generators required to alleviate network problems. A control algorithm to transfer and reconnect customers is developed to ensure that the network voltage profile remains within specification under all plausible load conditions. Finally, simulations are presented to show the performance of the system over a typical maximum daily load profile with large stochastic load variations.

Prospective, non-randomized phase 2 clinical trial of carboplatin plus paclitaxel with sequential radical pelvic radiotherapy for uterine papillary serous carcinoma

Objective Uterine Papillary Serous Carcinoma (UPSC) is uncommon and accounts for less than 5% of all uterine cancers. Therefore the majority of evidence about the benefits of adjuvant treatment comes from retrospective case series. We conducted a prospective multi-centre non-randomized phase 2 clinical trial using four cycles of adjuvant paclitaxel plus carboplatin chemotherapy followed by pelvic radiotherapy, in order to evaluate the tolerability and safety of this approach. Methods This trial enrolled patients with newly diagnosed, previously untreated patients with stage 1b-4 (FIGO-1988) UPSC with a papillary serous component of at least 30%. Paclitaxel (175 mg/m2) and carboplatin (AUC 6) were administered on day 1 of each 3-week cycle for 4 cycles. Chemotherapy was followed by external beam radiotherapy to the whole pelvis (50.4 Gy over 5.5 weeks). Completion and toxicity of treatment (Common Toxicity Criteria, CTC) and quality of life measures were the primary outcome indicators. Results Twenty-nine of 31 patients completed treatment as planned. Dose reduction was needed in 9 patients (29%), treatment delay in 7 (23%), and treatment cessation in 2 patients (6.5%). Hematologic toxicity, grade 3 or 4 occurred in 19% (6/31) of patients. Patients' self-reported quality of life remained stable throughout treatment. Thirteen of the 29 patients with stages 1–3 disease (44.8%) recurred (average follow up 28.1 months, range 8–60 months). Conclusion This multimodal treatment is feasible, safe and tolerated reasonably well and would be suitable for use in multi-institutional prospective randomized clinical trials incorporating novel therapies in patients with UPSC.