Active transonic aerofoil design optimization using robust multiobjective evolutionary algorithms

The use of adaptive wing/aerofoil designs is being considered, as they are promising techniques in aeronautic/ aerospace since they can reduce aircraft emissions and improve aerodynamic performance of manned or unmanned aircraft. This paper investigates the robust design and optimization for one type of adaptive techniques: active flow control bump at transonic flow conditions on a natural laminar flow aerofoil. The concept of using shock control bump is to control supersonic flow on the suction/pressure side of natural laminar flow aerofoil that leads to delaying shock occurrence (weakening its strength) or boundary layer separation. Such an active flow control technique reduces total drag at transonic speeds due to reduction of wave drag. The location of boundary-layer transition can influence the position and structure of the supersonic shock on the suction/pressure side of aerofoil. The boundarylayer transition position is considered as an uncertainty design parameter in aerodynamic design due to the many factors, such as surface contamination or surface erosion. This paper studies the shock-control-bump shape design optimization using robust evolutionary algorithms with uncertainty in boundary-layer transition locations. The optimization method is based on a canonical evolution strategy and incorporates the concepts of hierarchical topology, parallel computing, and asynchronous evaluation. The use of adaptive wing/aerofoil designs is being considered, as they are promising techniques in aeronautic/ aerospace since they can reduce aircraft emissions and improve aerodynamic performance of manned or unmanned aircraft. This paper investigates the robust design and optimization for one type of adaptive techniques: active flow control bump at transonic flow conditions on a natural laminar flow aerofoil. The concept of using shock control bump is to control supersonic flow on the suction/pressure side of natural laminar flow aerofoil that leads to delaying shock occurrence (weakening its strength) or boundary-layer separation. Such an active flow control technique reduces total drag at transonic speeds due to reduction of wave drag. The location of boundary-layer transition can influence the position and structure of the supersonic shock on the suction/pressure side of aerofoil. The boundarylayer transition position is considered as an uncertainty design parameter in aerodynamic design due to the many factors, such as surface contamination or surface erosion. This paper studies the shock-control-bump shape design optimization using robust evolutionary algorithms with uncertainty in boundary-layer transition locations. The optimization method is based on a canonical evolution strategy and incorporates the concepts of hierarchical topology, parallel computing, and asynchronous evaluation. Two test cases are conducted: the first test assumes the boundary-layer transition position is at 45% of chord from the leading edge, and the second test considers robust design optimization for the shock control bump at the variability of boundary-layer transition positions. The numerical result shows that the optimization method coupled to uncertainty design techniques produces Pareto optimal shock-control-bump shapes, which have low sensitivity and high aerodynamic performance while having significant total drag reduction.

Bounded parameter Markov Decision Processes with average reward criterion

Bounded parameter Markov Decision Processes (BMDPs) address the issue of dealing with uncertainty in the parameters of a Markov Decision Process (MDP). Unlike the case of an MDP, the notion of an optimal policy for a BMDP is not entirely straightforward. We consider two notions of optimality based on optimistic and pessimistic criteria. These have been analyzed for discounted BMDPs. Here we provide results for average reward BMDPs. We establish a fundamental relationship between the discounted and the average reward problems, prove the existence of Blackwell optimal policies and, for both notions of optimality, derive algorithms that converge to the optimal value function.

Endogenous mortality, human capital and economic growth

We consider growth and welfare effects of lifetime-uncertainty in an economy with human capital-led endogenous growth. We argue that lifetime uncertainty reduces private incentives to invest in both physical and human capital. Using an overlapping generations framework with finite-lived households we analyze the relevance of government expenditure on health and education to counter such growth-reducing forces. We focus on three different models that differ with respect to the mode of financing of education: (i) both private and public spending, (ii) only public spending, and (iii) only private spending. Results show that models (i) and (iii) outperform model (ii) with respect to long-term growth rates of per capita income, welfare levels and other important macroeconomic indicators. Theoretical predictions of model rankings for these macroeconomic indicators are also supported by observed stylized facts.

The influence of cultural selection on strategic communication

Strategic communication is held to be a key process by which organisations respond to environmental uncertainty. In the received view articulated in the literatures of organisational communication and public relations, strategic communication results from collaborative efforts by organisational members to create shared understanding about environmental uncertainty and, as a result of this collective understanding, formulate appropriate communication responses. In this study, I explore how such collaborative efforts towards the development of strategic communication are derived from, and bounded by, culturally shared values and assumptions. Study of the influences of an organisation‟s culture on the formulation of strategic communication is a fundamental conceptual challenge for public relations and, to date, a largely unaddressed area of research. This thesis responds to this challenge by describing a key property of organisational culture – the action of cultural selection (Durham, 1992). I integrate this property of cultural selection to extend and refine the descriptive range of Weick‟s (1969, 1979) classic sociocultural model of organizing. From this integration I propose a new model, the Cultural Selection of Strategic Communication (CSSC). Underpinning the CSSC model is the central proposition that because of the action of cultural selection during organizing processes, the inherently conservative properties of an organisation‟s culture constrain development of effective strategic communication in ways that may be unrelated to the outcomes of “environmental scanning” and other monitoring functions heralded by the public relations literature as central to organisational adaptation. Thus, by examining the development of strategic communication, I describe a central conservative influence on the social ecology of organisations. This research also responds to Butschi and Steyn‟s (2006) call for the development of theory focusing on strategic communication as well as Grunig (2006) and Sriramesh‟s (2007) call for research to further understand the role of culture in public relations practice. In keeping with the explorative and descriptive goals of this study, I employ organisational ethnography to examine the influence of cultural selection on the development of strategic communication. In this methodological approach, I use the technique of progressive contextualisation to compare data from two related but distinct cultural settings. This approach provides a range of descriptive opportunities to permit a deeper understanding of the work of cultural selection. Findings of this study propose that culture, operating as a system of shared and socially transmitted social knowledge, acts through the property of cultural selection to influence decision making, and decrease conceptual variation within a group. The findings support the view that strategic communication, as a cultural product derived from the influence of cultural selection, is an essential feature to understand the social ecology of an organisation.

Knowledge to deal with challenges to science education from without and within

This chapter focuses on two challenges to science teachers’ knowledge that Fensham identifies as having recently emerged—one a challenge from beyond Science and the other a challenge from within Science. Both challenges stem from common features of contemporary society, namely, its complexity and uncertainty. Both also confront science teachers with teaching situations that contrast markedly with the simplicity and certainty that have been characteristic of most school science education, and hence both present new demands for science teachers’ knowledge and skill. The first, the challenge from without Science, comes from the new world of work and the “knowledge society”. Regardless of their success in traditional school learning, many young persons in many modern economies are now seen as lacking other knowledge and skills that are essential for their personal, social and economic life. The second, the challenge from within Science, derives from changing notions of the nature of science itself. If the complexity and uncertainty of the knowledge society demand new understandings and contributions from science teachers, these are certainly matched by the demands that are posed by the role of complexity and uncertainty in science itself.

The RatSLAM project : robot spatial navigation

Rats are superior to the most advanced robots when it comes to creating and exploiting spatial representations. A wild rat can have a foraging range of hundreds of meters, possibly kilometers, and yet the rodent can unerringly return to its home after each foraging mission, and return to profitable foraging locations at a later date (Davis, et al., 1948). The rat runs through undergrowth and pipes with few distal landmarks, along paths where the visual, textural, and olfactory appearance constantly change (Hardy and Taylor, 1980; Recht, 1988). Despite these challenges the rat builds, maintains, and exploits internal representations of large areas of the real world throughout its two to three year lifetime. While algorithms exist that allow robots to build maps, the questions of how to maintain those maps and how to handle change in appearance over time remain open. The robotic approach to map building has been dominated by algorithms that optimise the geometry of the map based on measurements of distances to features. In a robotic approach, measurements of distance to features are taken with range-measuring devices such as laser range finders or ultrasound sensors, and in some cases estimates of depth from visual information. The features are incorporated into the map based on previous readings of other features in view and estimates of self-motion. The algorithms explicitly model the uncertainty in measurements of range and the measurement of self-motion, and use probability theory to find optimal solutions for the geometric configuration of the map features (Dissanayake, et al., 2001; Thrun and Leonard, 2008). Some of the results from the application of these algorithms have been impressive, ranging from three-dimensional maps of large urban strucutures (Thrun and Montemerlo, 2006) to natural environments (Montemerlo, et al., 2003).

Perceptions of data quality dimensions and data roles

Several authors stress the importance of data’s crucial foundation for operational, tactical and strategic decisions (e.g., Redman 1998, Tee et al. 2007). Data provides the basis for decision making as data collection and processing is typically associated with reducing uncertainty in order to make more effective decisions (Daft and Lengel 1986). While the first series of investments of Information Systems/Information Technology (IS/IT) into organizations improved data collection, restricted computational capacity and limited processing power created challenges (Simon 1960). Fifty years on, capacity and processing problems are increasingly less relevant; in fact, the opposite exists. Determining data relevance and usefulness is complicated by increased data capture and storage capacity, as well as continual improvements in information processing capability. As the IT landscape changes, businesses are inundated with ever-increasing volumes of data from both internal and external sources available on both an ad-hoc and real-time basis. More data, however, does not necessarily translate into more effective and efficient organizations, nor does it increase the likelihood of better or timelier decisions. This raises questions about what data managers require to assist their decision making processes.

Strategic project evaluation for open pit mining ventures using real options and allied econometric techniques

Open pit mine operations are complex businesses that demand a constant assessment of risk. This is because the value of a mine project is typically influenced by many underlying economic and physical uncertainties, such as metal prices, metal grades, costs, schedules, quantities, and environmental issues, among others, which are not known with much certainty at the beginning of the project. Hence, mining projects present a considerable challenge to those involved in associated investment decisions, such as the owners of the mine and other stakeholders. In general terms, when an option exists to acquire a new or operating mining project, , the owners and stock holders of the mine project need to know the value of the mining project, which is the fundamental criterion for making final decisions about going ahead with the venture capital. However, obtaining the mine project’s value is not an easy task. The reason for this is that sophisticated valuation and mine optimisation techniques, which combine advanced theories in geostatistics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance, among others, need to be used by the mine analyst or mine planner in order to assess and quantify the existing uncertainty and, consequently, the risk involved in the project investment. Furthermore, current valuation and mine optimisation techniques do not complement each other. That is valuation techniques based on real options (RO) analysis assume an expected (constant) metal grade and ore tonnage during a specified period, while mine optimisation (MO) techniques assume expected (constant) metal prices and mining costs. These assumptions are not totally correct since both sources of uncertainty—that of the orebody (metal grade and reserves of mineral), and that about the future behaviour of metal prices and mining costs—are the ones that have great impact on the value of any mining project. Consequently, the key objective of this thesis is twofold. The first objective consists of analysing and understanding the main sources of uncertainty in an open pit mining project, such as the orebody (in situ metal grade), mining costs and metal price uncertainties, and their effect on the final project value. The second objective consists of breaking down the wall of isolation between economic valuation and mine optimisation techniques in order to generate a novel open pit mine evaluation framework called the ―Integrated Valuation / Optimisation Framework (IVOF)‖. One important characteristic of this new framework is that it incorporates the RO and MO valuation techniques into a single integrated process that quantifies and describes uncertainty and risk in a mine project evaluation process, giving a more realistic estimate of the project’s value. To achieve this, novel and advanced engineering and econometric methods are used to integrate financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The proposed mine valuation/optimisation technique is then applied to a real gold disseminated open pit mine deposit to estimate its value in the face of orebody, mining costs and metal price uncertainties.

Gaussian process models for sensor-centric robot localisation

This paper presents an approach to building an observation likelihood function from a set of sparse, noisy training observations taken from known locations by a sensor with no obvious geometric model. The basic approach is to fit an interpolant to the training data, representing the expected observation, and to assume additive sensor noise. This paper takes a Bayesian view of the problem, maintaining a posterior over interpolants rather than simply the maximum-likelihood interpolant, giving a measure of uncertainty in the map at any point. This is done using a Gaussian process framework. To validate the approach experimentally, a model of an environment is built using observations from an omni-directional camera. After a model has been built from the training data, a particle filter is used to localise while traversing this environment

Planning most-likely paths from overhead imagery

This paper is about planning paths from overhead imagery, the novelty of which is taking explicit account of uncertainty in terrain classification and spatial variation in terrain cost. The image is first classified using a multi-class Gaussian Process Classifier which provides probabilities of class membership at each location in the image. The probability of class membership at a particular grid location is then combined with a terrain cost evaluated at that location using a spatial Gaussian process. The resulting cost function is, in turn, passed to a planner. This allows both the uncertainty in terrain classification and spatial variations in terrain costs to be incorporated into the planned path. Because the cost of traversing a grid cell is now a probability density rather than a single scalar value, we can produce not only the most-likely shortest path between points on the map, but also sample from the cost map to produce a distribution of paths between the points. Results are shown in the form of planned paths over aerial maps, these paths are shown to vary in response to local variations in terrain cost.

Developing a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model for selecting design-build operational variations

Many academic researchers have conducted studies on the selection of design-build (DB) delivery method; however, there are few studies on the selection of DB operational variations, which poses challenges to many clients. The selection of DB operational variation is a multi-criteria decision making process that requires clients to objectively evaluate the performance of each DB operational variation with reference to the selection criteria. This evaluation process is often characterized by subjectivity and uncertainty. In order to resolve this deficiency, the current investigation aimed to establish a fuzzy multicriteria decision-making (FMCDM) model for selecting the most suitable DB operational variation. A three-round Delphi questionnaire survey was conducted to identify the selection criteria and their relative importance. A fuzzy set theory approach, namely the modified horizontal approach with the bisector error method, was applied to establish the fuzzy membership functions, which enables clients to perform quantitative calculations on the performance of each DB operational variation. The FMCDM was developed using the weighted mean method to aggregate the overall performance of DB operational variations with regard to the selection criteria. The proposed FMCDM model enables clients to perform quantitative calculations in a fuzzy decision-making environment and provides a useful tool to cope with different project attributes.

Wind-energy based path planning for electric unmanned aerial vehicles using Markov Decision Processes

Exploiting wind-energy is one possible way to ex- tend flight duration for Unmanned Arial Vehicles. Wind-energy can also be used to minimise energy consumption for a planned path. In this paper, we consider uncertain time-varying wind fields and plan a path through them. A Gaussian distribution is used to determine uncertainty in the Time-varying wind fields. We use Markov Decision Process to plan a path based upon the uncertainty of Gaussian distribution. Simulation results that compare the direct line of flight between start and target point and our planned path for energy consumption and time of travel are presented. The result is a robust path using the most visited cell while sampling the Gaussian distribution of the wind field in each cell.

Using approximate Bayesian computation to estimate transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens

In this paper, we apply a simulation based approach for estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens. In particular, the objective is to infer the transmission rate between colonised health-care practitioners and uncolonised patients (and vice versa) solely from routinely collected incidence data. The method, using approximate Bayesian computation, is substantially less computer intensive and easier to implement than likelihood-based approaches we refer to here. We find through replacing the likelihood with a comparison of an efficient summary statistic between observed and simulated data that little is lost in the precision of estimated transmission rates. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of incorporating uncertainty in previously fixed parameters on the precision of the estimated transmission rates.

Relaxed phylogenetics and dating with confidence

In phylogenetics, the unrooted model of phylogeny and the strict molecular clock model are two extremes of a continuum. Despite their dominance in phylogenetic inference, it is evident that both are biologically unrealistic and that the real evolutionary process lies between these two extremes. Fortunately, intermediate models employing relaxed molecular clocks have been described. These models open the gate to a new field of “relaxed phylogenetics.” Here we introduce a new approach to performing relaxed phylogenetic analysis. We describe how it can be used to estimate phylogenies and divergence times in the face of uncertainty in evolutionary rates and calibration times. Our approach also provides a means for measuring the clocklikeness of datasets and comparing this measure between different genes and phylogenies. We find no significant rate autocorrelation among branches in three large datasets, suggesting that autocorrelated models are not necessarily suitable for these data. In addition, we place these datasets on the continuum of clocklikeness between a strict molecular clock and the alternative unrooted extreme. Finally, we present analyses of 102 bacterial, 106 yeast, 61 plant, 99 metazoan, and 500 primate alignments. From these we conclude that our method is phylogenetically more accurate and precise than the traditional unrooted model while adding the ability to infer a timescale to evolution.

Wind-energy based path planning for unmanned aerial vehicles using Markov decision processes

Exploiting wind-energy is one possible way to extend flight duration for Unmanned Arial Vehicles. Wind-energy can also be used to minimise energy consumption for a planned path. In this paper, we consider uncertain time-varying wind fields and plan a path through them. A Gaussian distribution is used to determine uncertainty in the Time-varying wind fields. We use Markov Decision Process to plan a path based upon the uncertainty of Gaussian distribution. Simulation results that compare the direct line of flight between start and target point and our planned path for energy consumption and time of travel are presented. The result is a robust path using the most visited cell while sampling the Gaussian distribution of the wind field in each cell.