457 resultados para Trimmed likelihood
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Background Wandering represents a major problem in the management of patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). In this study we examined the utility of the Algase Wandering Scale (AWS), a newly developed psychometric instrument that asks caregivers to assess the likelihood of wandering behavior. Methods The AWS was administered to the caregivers of 40 AD patients and total and subscale scores were examined in relation to measures of mental and functional status, depressive symptoms and medication usage. Results AWS scores were comparable, though slightly lower, than those normative values previously published. Higher scores were associated with more severe dementia. The Negative Outcome subscale showed a significant increase in reported falls or injuries in association with anti-depressant use. Conclusions These data provide some construct validation for the AWS as a potentially useful scale to assess wandering behaviors in AD.
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Pedal cyclists are over-represented in traffic crash injuries in Australia. This study examined correlates of cycling injuries in a sample of Queensland cyclists. Members of Bicycle Queensland (n=1976) were asked about cycling injuries as part of an online survey. They also reported demographic characteristics, reasons for cycling, years of cycling as an adult, and cycling frequency. Multivariate logistic regression modelling was used to examine the association between these variables and experiencing cycling injuries last year (yes/no). Thirty-one percent of respondents (n=617) reported at least one cycling injury. Respondents had greater likelihood of injury if they cycled more frequently, had cycled <5 years, or cycled for recreation or competition. These findings suggest that injuries are mostly likely to occur among less experienced cyclists, those cycling the most, and those cycling for sport and recreation. Injury prevention interventions should include cycle skills training along with fostering safer cycling environments.
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Objective Research is beginning to provide an indication of the co-occurring substance abuse and mental health needs for the driving under the influence (DUI) population. This study aimed to examine the extent of such psychiatric problems among a large sample size of DUI offenders entering treatment in Texas. Methods This is a study of 36,373 past year DUI clients and 308,714 non-past year DUI clients admitted to Texas treatment programs between 2005 and 2008. Data were obtained from the State's administrative dataset. Results Analysis indicated that non-past year DUI clients were more likely to present with more severe illicit substance use problems, while past year DUI clients were more likely to have a primary problem with alcohol. Nevertheless, a cannabis use problem was also found to be significantly associated with DUI recidivism in the last year. In regards to mental health status, a major finding was that depression was the most common psychiatric condition reported by DUI clients, including those with more than one DUI offence in the past year. This cohort also reported elevated levels of Bipolar Disorder compared to the general population, and such a diagnosis was also associated with an increased likelihood of not completing treatment. Additionally, female clients were more likely to be diagnosed with mental health problems than males, as well as more likely to be placed on medications at admission and more likely to have problems with methamphetamine, cocaine, and opiates. Conclusions DUI offenders are at an increased risk of experiencing comorbid psychiatric disorders, and thus, corresponding treatment programs need to cater for a range of mental health concerns that are likely to affect recidivism rates.
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Crash prediction models are used for a variety of purposes including forecasting the expected future performance of various transportation system segments with similar traits. The influence of intersection features on safety have been examined extensively because intersections experience a relatively large proportion of motor vehicle conflicts and crashes compared to other segments in the transportation system. The effects of left-turn lanes at intersections in particular have seen mixed results in the literature. Some researchers have found that left-turn lanes are beneficial to safety while others have reported detrimental effects on safety. This inconsistency is not surprising given that the installation of left-turn lanes is often endogenous, that is, influenced by crash counts and/or traffic volumes. Endogeneity creates problems in econometric and statistical models and is likely to account for the inconsistencies reported in the literature. This paper reports on a limited-information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimation approach to compensate for endogeneity between left-turn lane presence and angle crashes. The effects of endogeneity are mitigated using the approach, revealing the unbiased effect of left-turn lanes on crash frequency for a dataset of Georgia intersections. The research shows that without accounting for endogeneity, left-turn lanes ‘appear’ to contribute to crashes; however, when endogeneity is accounted for in the model, left-turn lanes reduce angle crash frequencies as expected by engineering judgment. Other endogenous variables may lurk in crash models as well, suggesting that the method may be used to correct simultaneity problems with other variables and in other transportation modeling contexts.
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This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.
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Background: Poor feeding practices in early childhood contribute to the burden of childhood malnutrition and morbidity. Objective: To estimate the key indicators of breastfeeding and complementary feeding and the determinants of selected feeding practices in Sri Lanka. Methods: The sample consisted of 1,127 children aged 0 to 23 months from the Sri Lanka Demographic and Health Survey 2000. The key infant feeding indicators were estimated and selected indicators were examined against a set of individual-, household-, and community- level variables using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: Breastfeeding was initiated within the first hour after birth in 56.3% of infants, 99.7% had ever been breastfed, 85.0% were currently being breastfed, and 27.2% were being bottle-fed. Of infants under 6 months of age, 60.6% were fully breastfed, and of those aged 6 to 9 months, 93.4% received complementary foods. The likelihood of not initiating breastfeeding within the first hour after birth was higher for mothers who underwent cesarean delivery (OR = 3.23) and those who were not visited by a Public Health Midwife at home during pregnancy (OR = 1.81). The rate of full breastfeeding was significantly lower among mothers who did not receive postnatal home visits by a Public Health Midwife. Bottlefeeding rates were higher among infants whose mothers had ever been employed (OR = 1.86), lived in a metropolitan area (OR = 3.99), or lived in the South-Central Hill country (OR = 3.11) and were lower among infants of mothers with secondary education (OR = 0.27). Infants from the urban (OR = 8.06) and tea estate (OR = 12.63) sectors were less likely to receive timely complementary feeding than rural infants. Conclusions: Antenatal and postnatal contacts with Public Health Midwives were associated with improved breastfeeding practices. Breastfeeding promotion strategies should specifically focus on the estate and urban or metropolitan communities.
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Current guidelines on clear zone selection and roadside hazard management adopt the US approach based on the likelihood of roadside encroachment by drivers. This approach is based on the available research conducted in the 1960s and 70s. Over time, questions have been raised regarding the robustness and applicability of this research in Australasia in 2010 and in the Safe System context. This paper presents a review of the fundamental research relating to selection of clear zones. Results of extensive rural highway statistical data modelling suggest that a significant proportion of run-off-road to the left casualty crashes occurs in clear zones exceeding 13 m. They also show that the risk of run-off-road to the left casualty crashes was 21% lower where clear zones exceeded 8 m when compared with clear zones in the 4 – 8 m range. The paper discusses a possible approach to selection of clear zones based on managing crash outcomes, rather than on the likelihood of roadside encroachment which is the basis for the current practice. It is expected that this approach would encourage selection of clear zones wider than 8 m when the combination of other road features suggests higher than average casualty crash risk.
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Hazard perception in driving is the one of the few driving-specific skills associated with crash involvement. However, this relationship has only been examined in studies where the majority of individuals were younger than 65. We present the first data revealing an association between hazard perception and self-reported crash involvement in drivers aged 65 and over. In a sample of 271 drivers, we found that individuals whose mean response time to traffic hazards was slower than 6.68 seconds (the ROC-curve derived pass mark for the test) were 2.32 times (95% CI 1.46, 3.22) more likely to have been involved in a self-reported crash within the previous five years than those with faster response times. This likelihood ratio became 2.37 (95% CI 1.49, 3.28) when driving exposure was controlled for. As a comparison, individuals who failed a test of useful field of view were 2.70 (95% CI 1.44, 4.44) times more likely to crash than those who passed. The hazard perception test and the useful field of view measure accounted for separate variance in crash involvement. These findings indicate that hazard perception testing and training could be potentially useful for road safety interventions for this age group.
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Bronfenbrenner.s Bioecological Model, expressed as the developmental equation, D f PPCT, is the theoretical framework for two studies that bring together diverse strands of psychology to study the work-life interface of working adults. Occupational and organizational psychology is focused on the demands and resources of work and family, without emphasising the individual in detail. Health and personality psychology examine the individual but without emphasis on the individual.s work and family roles. The current research used Bronfenbrenner.s theoretical framework to combine individual differences, work and family to understand how these factors influence the working adult.s psychological functioning. Competent development has been defined as high well-being (measured as life satisfaction and psychological well-being) and high work engagement (as work vigour, work dedication and absorption in work) and as the absence of mental illness (as depression, anxiety and stress) and the absence of burnout (as emotional exhaustion, cynicism and professional efficacy). Study 1 and 2 were linked, with Study 1 as a cross-sectional survey and Study 2, a prospective panel study that followed on from the data used in Study1. Participants were recruited from a university and from a large public hospital to take part in a 3-wave, online study where they completed identical surveys at 3-4 month intervals (N = 470 at Time 1 and N = 198 at Time 3). In Study 1, hierarchical multiple regressions were used to assess the effects of individual differences (Block 1, e.g. dispositional optimism, coping self-efficacy, perceived control of time, humour), work and family variables (Block 2, e.g. affective commitment, skill discretion, work hours, children, marital status, family demands) and the work-life interface (Block 3, e.g. direction and quality of spillover between roles, work-life balance) on the outcomes. There were a mosaic of predictors of the outcomes with a group of seven that were the most frequent significant predictors and which represented the individual (dispositional optimism and coping self-efficacy), the workplace (skill discretion, affective commitment and job autonomy) and the work-life interface (negative work-to-family spillover and negative family-to-work spillover). Interestingly, gender and working hours were not important predictors. The effects of job social support, generally and for work-life issues, perceived control of time and egalitarian gender roles on the outcomes were mediated by negative work-to-family spillover, particularly for emotional exhaustion. Further, the effect of negative spillover on depression, anxiety and work engagement was moderated by the individual.s personal and workplace resources. Study 2 modelled the longitudinal relationships between the group of the seven most frequent predictors and the outcomes. Using a set of non-nested models, the relative influences of concurrent functioning, stability and change over time were assessed. The modelling began with models at Time 1, which formed the basis for confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to establish the underlying relationships between the variables and calculate the composite variables for the longitudinal models. The CFAs were well fitting with few modifications to ensure good fit. However, using burnout and work engagement together required additional analyses to resolve poor fit, with one factor (representing a continuum from burnout to work engagement) being the only acceptable solution. Five different longitudinal models were investigated as the Well-Being, Mental Distress, Well-Being-Mental Health, Work Engagement and Integrated models using differing combinations of the outcomes. The best fitting model for each was a reciprocal model that was trimmed of trivial paths. The strongest paths were the synchronous correlations and the paths within variables over time. The reciprocal paths were more variable with weak to mild effects. There was evidence of gain and loss spirals between the variables over time, with a slight net gain in resources that may provide the mechanism for the accumulation of psychological advantage over a lifetime. The longitudinal models also showed that there are leverage points at which personal, psychological and managerial interventions can be targeted to bolster the individual and provide supportive workplace conditions that also minimise negative spillover. Bronfenbrenner.s developmental equation has been a useful framework for the current research, showing the importance of the person as central to the individual.s experience of the work-life interface. By taking control of their own life, the individual can craft a life path that is most suited to their own needs. Competent developmental outcomes were most likely where the person was optimistic and had high self-efficacy, worked in a job that they were attached to and which allowed them to use their talents and without too much negative spillover between their work and family domains. In this way, individuals had greater well-being, better mental health and greater work engagement at any one time and across time.
Resumo:
A set of non-nested longitudinal models tested the relationships between personal and workplace resources, well-being and work engagement. The reciprocal model, trimmed of trivial paths had the best fit and parsimony. The model showed the strong influences of concurrent functioning, stability of variables over time and weaker reciprocal relationships between variables across time. Individuals with greater confidence in themselves and the future experience better work conditions and have greater well-being and work engagement. These day-to-day influences are equalled by the long term strength and stability of Individual Factors, Positive Workplace Factors, and Overall Well-Being. Whilst the reciprocal paths had only weak to mild effects, there was mutual reinforcement of Individual Factors and Overall Well-Being, with Positive Workplace Factors and Work Engagement counterbalancing each other, indicating a more complex relationship. Well-being, particularly, is anchored in the immediate and distant past and provides a robust stability to functioning into the future.
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Obesity is affecting an increasing proportion of children globally. Despite an appreciation that physical activity is essential for the normal growth and development of children and prevents obesity and obesity-related health problems, too few children are physically active. A concurrent problem is that today’s young people spend more time than previous generations did in sedentary pursuits, including watching television and engaging in screen-based games. Active behavior has been displaced by these inactive recreational choices, which has contributed to reductions in activity-related energy expenditure. Implementation of multifactorial solutions considered to offer the best chance of combating these trends is urgently required to redress the energy imbalance that characterizes obesity. The counterproductive ‘shame and blame’ mentality that apportions responsibility for the childhood obesity problem to sufferers, their parents, teachers or health-care providers needs to be changed. Instead, these groups should offer constant support and encouragement to promote appropriate physical activity in children. Failure to provide activity opportunities will increase the likelihood that the children of today will live less healthy (and possibly shorter)lives than their parents.
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A good object representation or object descriptor is one of the key issues in object based image analysis. To effectively fuse color and texture as a unified descriptor at object level, this paper presents a novel method for feature fusion. Color histogram and the uniform local binary patterns are extracted from arbitrary-shaped image-objects, and kernel principal component analysis (kernel PCA) is employed to find nonlinear relationships of the extracted color and texture features. The maximum likelihood approach is used to estimate the intrinsic dimensionality, which is then used as a criterion for automatic selection of optimal feature set from the fused feature. The proposed method is evaluated using SVM as the benchmark classifier and is applied to object-based vegetation species classification using high spatial resolution aerial imagery. Experimental results demonstrate that great improvement can be achieved by using proposed feature fusion method.
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We estimate the parameters of a stochastic process model for a macroparasite population within a host using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). The immunity of the host is an unobserved model variable and only mature macroparasites at sacrifice of the host are counted. With very limited data, process rates are inferred reasonably precisely. Modeling involves a three variable Markov process for which the observed data likelihood is computationally intractable. ABC methods are particularly useful when the likelihood is analytically or computationally intractable. The ABC algorithm we present is based on sequential Monte Carlo, is adaptive in nature, and overcomes some drawbacks of previous approaches to ABC. The algorithm is validated on a test example involving simulated data from an autologistic model before being used to infer parameters of the Markov process model for experimental data. The fitted model explains the observed extra-binomial variation in terms of a zero-one immunity variable, which has a short-lived presence in the host.