Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Supply chain collaboration : capabilities for continuous innovation

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to investigate how collaborative relationships enhance continuous innovation in the supply chain using case studies. Design/methodology/approach – The data were collected from semi-structured interviews with 23 managers in ten case studies. The main intention was to comprehend how these firms engaged in collaborative relationships and their importance for successful innovation. The study adopted a qualitative approach to investigating these factors. Findings – The findings demonstrate how differing relationships can impact on the operation of firms and their capacities to innovate. The ability to work together with partners has enabled firms to integrate and link operations for increased effectiveness as well as embark on both radical and incremental innovation. Research limitations/implications – The research into the initiatives and strategies for collaboration was essentially exploratory. A qualitative approach using case studies acknowledged that the responses from managers were difficult to quantify or gauge the extent of these factors. Practical implications – The findings have shown various methods where firms integrated with customers and suppliers in the supply chain. This was evident in the views of managers across all the firms examined, supporting the importance of collaboration and efficient allocation of resources throughout the supply chain. They were able to set procedures in their dealings with partners, sharing knowledge and processes, and subsequently joint-planning and investing with them for better operations, systems and processes in the supply chain. Originality/value – The case studies serve as examples for managers in logistics organisation who are contemplating strategies and issues on collaborative relationships. The study provides important lessons on how such relationships can impact on the operation of firms and their capability to innovate. Keywords Supply chain management, Innovation, Relationship marketing

A comparison of different methods to determine diffusion length in dye-sensitized solar cells

A new steady state method for determination of the electron diffusion length in dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) is described and illustrated with data obtained using cells containing three different types of electrolyte. The method is based on using near-IR absorbance methods to establish pairs of illumination intensity for which the total number of trapped electrons is the same at open circuit (where all electrons are lost by interfacial electron transfer) as at short circuit (where the majority of electrons are collected at the contact). Electron diffusion length values obtained by this method are compared with values derived by intensity modulated methods and by impedance measurements under illumination. The results indicate that the values of electron diffusion length derived from the steady state measurements are consistently lower than the values obtained by the non steady-state methods. For all three electrolytes used in the study, the electron diffusion length was sufficiently high to guarantee electron collection efficiencies greater than 90%. Measurement of the trap distributions by near-IR absorption confirmed earlier observations of much higher electron trap densities for electrolytes containing Li+ ions. It is suggested that the electron trap distributions may not be intrinsic properties of the TiO2 nanoparticles, but may be associated with electron-ion interactions.

Identifying work related injuries : comparison of methods for interrogating text fields

Background: Work-related injuries in Australia are estimated to cost around $57.5 billion annually, however there are currently insufficient surveillance data available to support an evidence-based public health response. Emergency departments (ED) in Australia are a potential source of information on work-related injuries though most ED’s do not have an ‘Activity Code’ to identify work-related cases with information about the presenting problem recorded in a short free text field. This study compared methods for interrogating text fields for identifying work-related injuries presenting at emergency departments to inform approaches to surveillance of work-related injury.---------- Methods: Three approaches were used to interrogate an injury description text field to classify cases as work-related: keyword search, index search, and content analytic text mining. Sensitivity and specificity were examined by comparing cases flagged by each approach to cases coded with an Activity code during triage. Methods to improve the sensitivity and/or specificity of each approach were explored by adjusting the classification techniques within each broad approach.---------- Results: The basic keyword search detected 58% of cases (Specificity 0.99), an index search detected 62% of cases (Specificity 0.87), and the content analytic text mining (using adjusted probabilities) approach detected 77% of cases (Specificity 0.95).---------- Conclusions The findings of this study provide strong support for continued development of text searching methods to obtain information from routine emergency department data, to improve the capacity for comprehensive injury surveillance.

A comparison of two business cycle dating methods

We study the suggestion that Markov switching (MS) models should be used to determine cyclical turning points. A Kalman filter approximation is used to derive the dating rules implicit in such models. We compare these with dating rules in an algorithm that provides a good approximation to the chronology determined by the NBER. We find that there is very little that is attractive in the MS approach when compared with this algorithm. The most important difference relates to robustness. The MS approach depends on the validity of that statistical model. Our approach is valid in a wider range of circumstances.

Methods and preliminary results for a data linkage project to determine long-term survival after intensive care unit admission

Aims: To describe a local data linkage project to match hospital data with the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) National Death Index (NDI) to assess longterm outcomes of intensive care unit patients. Methods: Data were obtained from hospital intensive care and cardiac surgery databases on all patients aged 18 years and over admitted to either of two intensive care units at a tertiary-referral hospital between 1 January 1994 and 31 December 2005. Date of death was obtained from the AIHW NDI by probabilistic software matching, in addition to manual checking through hospital databases and other sources. Survival was calculated from time of ICU admission, with a censoring date of 14 February 2007. Data for patients with multiple hospital admissions requiring intensive care were analysed only from the first admission. Summary and descriptive statistics were used for preliminary data analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to analyse factors determining long-term survival. Results: During the study period, 21 415 unique patients had 22 552 hospital admissions that included an ICU admission; 19 058 surgical procedures were performed with a total of 20 092 ICU admissions. There were 4936 deaths. Median follow-up was 6.2 years, totalling 134 203 patient years. The casemix was predominantly cardiac surgery (80%), followed by cardiac medical (6%), and other medical (4%). The unadjusted survival at 1, 5 and 10 years was 97%, 84% and 70%, respectively. The 1-year survival ranged from 97% for cardiac surgery to 36% for cardiac arrest. An APACHE II score was available for 16 877 patients. In those discharged alive from hospital, the 1, 5 and 10-year survival varied with discharge location. Conclusions: ICU-based linkage projects are feasible to determine long-term outcomes of ICU patients

Factors influencing oncology nurses' approaches to accommodating cultural needs in palliative care

Aims and objectives: The purpose of this study is to explore the social construction of cultural issues in palliative care amongst oncology nurses. ---------- Background: Australia is a nation composed of people from different cultural origins with diverse linguistic, spiritual, religious and social backgrounds. The challenge of working with an increasingly culturally diverse population is a common theme expressed by many healthcare professionals from a variety of countries. ---------- Design: Grounded theory was used to investigate the processes by which nurses provide nursing care to cancer patients from diverse cultural backgrounds. ---------- Methods: Semi-structured interviews with seven Australian oncology nurses provided the data for the study; the data was analysed using grounded theory data analysis techniques. ---------- Results: The core category emerging from the study was that of accommodating cultural needs. This paper focuses on describing the series of subcategories that were identified as factors which could influence the process by which nurses would accommodate cultural needs. These factors included nurses' views and understandings of culture and cultural mores, their philosophy of cultural care, nurses' previous experiences with people from other cultures and organisational approaches to culture and cultural care. ---------- Conclusions: This study demonstrated that previous experiences with people from other cultures and organisational approaches to culture and cultural care often influenced nurses' views and understandings of culture and cultural mores and their beliefs, attitudes and behaviours in providing cultural care. ---------- Relevance to clinical practice: It is imperative to appreciate how nurses' experiences with people from other cultures can be recognised and built upon or, if necessary, challenged. Furthermore, nurses' cultural competence and experiences with people from other cultures need to be further investigated in clinical practice.

Choosing "interesting" research methods and facing the challenges for publication

This paper discusses the choice to use two less conventional or “interesting” research methods, Q Methodology and Experience Sampling Method, rather than “status quo” research methods so common in the marketing discipline. It is argued that such methods have value for marketing academics because they widen the potential for discovery. The paper outlines these two research methods, providing examples of how they have been used in an experiential consumption perspective. Additionally the paper identifies some of the challenges to be faced when trying to publish research that use such less conventional methods, as well as offering suggestions to address them.

Communication and culture : mobile telephony in PNG villages

This paper examines the recent introduction of mobile telephony into rural communities in Papua New Guinea (PNG). It presents the findings of substantial fieldwork conducted in 2009, and suggests ways in which the new technology is already changing people’s lives and relationships. The paper identifies the roles of mobile telephones in two communities, the changes taking place and how villagers are responding to them. Comparison of the two villages is strategic as it highlights similarities in perceptions of mobile phones in these two very different settings. An ethnographic approach is adopted, situated within an interpretative methodology. Data collection methods include semi-structured interviews, orally-administered surveys and participant observation. The village lifestyle or ‘culture’ provides an important lens for understanding this data and the assertions made by village respondents. This research is significant as it addresses changes currently occurring in the communication methods of whole communities.

Next Generation ‘Filmmaking’: New Markets, New Methods and New Business Models

Digital production and distribution technologies may create new opportunities for filmmaking in Australia. A culture of new approaches to filmmaking is emerging driven by ‘next generation filmmakers’ who are willing to consider new business models: from online web series to short films produced for mobile phones. At the same time cultural representation itself is transforming within an interactive, social media driven environment. Yet there is very little research into next generation filmmaking. The aim of this paper is to scope and discuss three key aspects of next generation filmmaking, namely: digital trends in film distribution and marketing; processes and strategies of ‘next generation’ filmmakers; and case studies of viable next generation business models and filmmaking practices. We conclude with a brief examination of the implications for media and cultural policy which suggests the future possibility of a rapprochement between creative industries discourse and cultural policy.

Academic rigour in science assessment tasks

The critical problem of student disengagement and underachievement in the middle years of schooling (Years 4 . 9) has focussed attention on the quality of educational programs in schools, in Australia and elsewhere. The loss of enthusiasm for science in the middle years is particularly problematic given the growing demand for science professionals. Reshaping middle years programs has included an emphasis on integrating Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and improving assessment practices to engage students in higher cognitive processes and enhance academic rigour. Understanding the nature of academic rigour and how to embed it in students. science assessment tasks that incorporate the use of ICTs could enable teachers to optimise the quality of the learning environment. However, academic rigour is not clearly described or defined in the literature and there is little empirical evidence upon which researchers and teachers could draw to enhance understandings. This study used a collective case study design to explore teachers' understandings of academic rigour within science assessment tasks. The research design is based on a conceptual framework that is underpinned by socio-cultural theory. Three methods were used to collect data from six middle years teachers and their students. These methods were a survey, focus group discussion with teachers and a group of students and individual semi-structured interviews with teachers. Findings of the case study revealed six criteria of academic rigour, namely, higher order thinking, alignment, building on prior knowledge, scaffolding, knowledge construction and creativity. Results showed that the middle years teachers held rich understandings of academic rigour that led to effective utilisation of ICTs in science assessment tasks. Findings also indicated that teachers could further enhance their understandings of academic rigour in some aspects of each of the criteria. In particular, this study found that academic rigour could have been further optimised by: promoting more thoughtful discourse and interaction to foster higher order thinking; increasing alignment between curriculum, pedagogy, and assessment, and students. prior knowledge; placing greater emphasis on identifying, activating and building on prior knowledge; better differentiating the level of scaffolding provided and applying it more judiciously; fostering creativity throughout tasks; enhancing teachers‟ content knowledge and pedagogical content knowledge, and providing more in-depth coverage of fewer topics to support knowledge construction. Key contributions of this study are a definition and a model which clarify the nature of academic rigour.

Experimental evaluation of position control methods for hydraulic systems

Presents a unified and systematic assessment of ten position control strategies for a hydraulic servo system with single-ended cylinder driven by a proportional directional control valve. We aim at identifying those methods that achieve better tracking, have a low sensitivity to system uncertainties, and offer a good balance between development effort and end results. A formal approach for solving this problem relies on several practical metrics, which is introduced herein. Their choice is important, as the comparison results between controllers can vary significantly, depending on the selected criterion. Apart from the quantitative assessment, we also raise aspects which are difficult to quantify, but which must stay in attention when considering the position control problem for this class of hydraulic servo systems.