Validation of FHWA crash models for rural intersections - Lessons learned

A national-level safety analysis tool is needed to complement existing analytical tools for assessment of the safety impacts of roadway design alternatives. FHWA has sponsored the development of the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM), which is roadway design and redesign software that estimates the safety effects of alternative designs. Considering the importance of IHSDM in shaping the future of safety-related transportation investment decisions, FHWA justifiably sponsored research with the sole intent of independently validating some of the statistical models and algorithms in IHSDM. Statistical model validation aims to accomplish many important tasks, including (a) assessment of the logical defensibility of proposed models, (b) assessment of the transferability of models over future time periods and across different geographic locations, and (c) identification of areas in which future model improvements should be made. These three activities are reported for five proposed types of rural intersection crash prediction models. The internal validation of the model revealed that the crash models potentially suffer from omitted variables that affect safety, site selection and countermeasure selection bias, poorly measured and surrogate variables, and misspecification of model functional forms. The external validation indicated the inability of models to perform on par with model estimation performance. Recommendations for improving the state of the practice from this research include the systematic conduct of carefully designed before-and-after studies, improvements in data standardization and collection practices, and the development of analytical methods to combine the results of before-and-after studies with cross-sectional studies in a meaningful and useful way.

Empirical investigation of interactive highway safety design model accident prediction algorithm : Rural intersections

One major gap in transportation system safety management is the ability to assess the safety ramifications of design changes for both new road projects and modifications to existing roads. To fulfill this need, FHWA and its many partners are developing a safety forecasting tool, the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The tool will be used by roadway design engineers, safety analysts, and planners throughout the United States. As such, the statistical models embedded in IHSDM will need to be able to forecast safety impacts under a wide range of roadway configurations and environmental conditions for a wide range of driver populations and will need to be able to capture elements of driving risk across states. One of the IHSDM algorithms developed by FHWA and its contractors is for forecasting accidents on rural road segments and rural intersections. The methodological approach is to use predictive models for specific base conditions, with traffic volume information as the sole explanatory variable for crashes, and then to apply regional or state calibration factors and accident modification factors (AMFs) to estimate the impact on accidents of geometric characteristics that differ from the base model conditions. In the majority of past approaches, AMFs are derived from parameter estimates associated with the explanatory variables. A recent study for FHWA used a multistate database to examine in detail the use of the algorithm with the base model-AMF approach and explored alternative base model forms as well as the use of full models that included nontraffic-related variables and other approaches to estimate AMFs. That research effort is reported. The results support the IHSDM methodology.

Transit users' route-choice modelling in transit assignment : a review

This paper reviews the main studies on transit users’ route choice in thecontext of transit assignment. The studies are categorized into three groups: static transit assignment, within-day dynamic transit assignment, and emerging approaches. The motivations and behavioural assumptions of these approaches are re-examined. The first group includes shortest-path heuristics in all-or-nothing assignment, random utility maximization route-choice models in stochastic assignment, and user equilibrium based assignment. The second group covers within-day dynamics in transit users’ route choice, transit network formulations, and dynamic transit assignment. The third group introduces the emerging studies on behavioural complexities, day-to-day dynamics, and real-time dynamics in transit users’ route choice. Future research directions are also discussed.

Conflict resolution through negotiation in a railway open access market : a multi-agent system approach

Open access reforms to railway regulations allow multiple train operators to provide rail services on a common infrastructure. As railway operations are now independently managed by different stakeholders, conflicts in operations may arise, and there have been attempts to derive an effective access charge regime so that these conflicts may be resolved. One approach is by direct negotiation between the infrastructure manager and the train service providers. Despite the substantial literature on the topic, few consider the benefits of employing computer simulation as an evaluation tool for railway operational activities such as access pricing. This article proposes a multi-agent system (MAS) framework for the railway open market and demonstrates its feasibility by modelling the negotiation between an infrastructure provider and a train service operator. Empirical results show that the model is capable of resolving operational conflicts according to market demand.

Perceptions of daylight quality delivered by light transport systems

Light Transport Systems (LTS) (e.g lightpipes, fibre optics) can illuminate core areas within buildings with great potential for energy savings. However, they do not provide a clear connection to the outside like windows do, and their effects on people’s physiological and psychological health are not well understood. Furthermore, how people perceive LTS affects users’ acceptance of the device and its performance. The purpose of this research is to understand how occupants perceive and experience spaces illuminated by LTS. Two case studies of commercial buildings with LTS, located in Brisbane, Australia are assessed by qualitative (focus group interviews) and quantitative (measurement of daylight illuminances and luminance) methods. The data from interviews with occupants provide useful insight into the aspects of LTS design that are most relevant to positive perception of the luminous environment. Luminance measurements of the occupied spaces support the perception of the LTS reported by occupants: designs that create high contrast luminous environments are more likely to be perceived negatively.

A prioritised fuzzy constraint satisfaction approach to model agent negotiation for railway scheduling

With the recent regulatory reforms in a number of countries, railways resources are no longer managed by a single party but are distributed among different stakeholders. To facilitate the operation of train services, a train service provider (SP) has to negotiate with the infrastructure provider (IP) for a train schedule and the associated track access charge. This paper models the SP and IP as software agents and the negotiation as a prioritized fuzzy constraint satisfaction (PFCS) problem. Computer simulations have been conducted to demonstrate the effects on the train schedule when the SP has different optimization criteria. The results show that by assigning different priorities on the fuzzy constraints, agents can represent SPs with different operational objectives.

A two-Dimensional finite volume method for variable density flow and solute transport through saturated-unsaturated media

Extensive groundwater withdrawal has resulted in a severe seawater intrusion problem in the Gooburrum aquifers at Bundaberg, Queensland, Australia. Better management strategies can be implemented by understanding the seawater intrusion processes in those aquifers. To study the seawater intrusion process in the region, a two-dimensional density-dependent, saturated and unsaturated flow and transport computational model is used. The model consists of a coupled system of two non-linear partial differential equations. The first equation describes the flow of a variable-density fluid, and the second equation describes the transport of dissolved salt. A two-dimensional control volume finite element model is developed for simulating the seawater intrusion into the heterogeneous aquifer system at Gooburrum. The simulation results provide a realistic mechanism by which to study the convoluted transport phenomena evolving in this complex heterogeneous coastal aquifer.

Developing a sustainability assessment model : the sustainable infrastructure, land-use, environment and transport model

Measuring the comparative sustainability levels of cities, regions, institutions and projects is an essential procedure in creating sustainable urban futures. This paper introduces a new urban sustainability assessment model: “The Sustainable Infrastructure, Land-use, Environment and Transport Model (SILENT)”. The SILENT Model is an advanced geographic information system and indicator-based comparative urban sustainability indexing model. The model aims to assist planners and policy makers in their daily tasks in sustainable urban planning and development by providing an integrated sustainability assessment framework. The paper gives an overview of the conceptual framework and components of the model and discusses the theoretical constructs, methodological procedures, and future development of this promising urban sustainability assessment model.

Sustainable urban and transport development for transportation disadvantaged : a review

Around the world, particularly in North America and Australia, urban sprawl combined with low density suburban development has caused serious accessibility and mobility problems, especially for those who do not own a motor vehicle or have access to public transportation services. Sustainable urban and transportation development is seen crucial in solving transportation disadvantage problems in urban settlements. However, current urban and transportation models have not been adequately addressed unsustainable urban transportation problems that transportation disadvantaged groups overwhelmingly encounter, and the negative impacts on the disadvantaged have not been effectively considered. Transportation disadvantaged is a multi-dimensional problem that combines demographic, spatial and transportation service dimensions. Nevertheless, most transportation models focusing on transportation disadvantage only employ demographic and transportation service dimensions and do not take spatial dimension into account. This paper aims to investigate the link between sustainable urban and transportation development and spatial dimension of the transportation disadvantage problem. The paper, for that purpose, provides a thorough review of the literature and identifies a set of urban, development and policy characteristics to define spatial dimension of the transportation disadvantage problem. This paper presents an overview of these urban, development and policy characteristics that have significant relationships with sustainable urban and transportation development and travel inability, which are also useful in determining transportation disadvantaged populations.

Exposure to ultrafine particles and PM2.5 in four Sydney transport modes

Concentrations of ultrafine (<0.1µm) particles (UFPs) and PM2.5 (<2.5µm) were measured whilst commuting along a similar route by train, bus, ferry and automobile in Sydney, Australia. One trip on each transport mode was undertaken during both morning and evening peak hours throughout a working week, for a total of 40 trips. Analyses comprised one-way ANOVA to compare overall (i.e. all trips combined) geometric mean concentrations of both particle fractions measured across transport modes, and assessment of both the correlation between wind speed and individual trip means of UFPs and PM2.5, and the correlation between the two particle fractions. Overall geometric mean concentrations of UFPs and PM2.5 ranged from 2.8 (train) to 8.4 (bus) × 104 particles cm-3 and 22.6 (automobile) to 29.6 (bus) µg m-3, respectively, and a statistically significant difference (p <0.001) between modes was found for both particle fractions. Individual trip geometric mean concentrations were between 9.7 × 103 (train) and 2.2 × 105 (bus) particles cm-3 and 9.5 (train) to 78.7 (train) µg m-3. Estimated commuter exposures were variable, and the highest return trip mean PM2.5 exposure occurred in the ferry mode, whilst the highest UFP exposure occurred during bus trips. The correlation between fractions was generally poor, and in keeping with the duality of particle mass and number emissions in vehicle-dominated urban areas. Wind speed was negatively correlated with, and a generally poor determinant of, UFP and PM2.5 concentrations, suggesting a more significant role for other factors in determining commuter exposure.