An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets

We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.

Building personas of students accessing a peer-facilitated support for learning program

The modern student represents a change from the traditional learner. More than ever before, additional resources are available online and yet personalised learning and peer-assistance programs are becoming an essential part of tertiary education delivery. This paper presents the first stage in a user-centred design approach to the analysis of the completeness and efficacy of such a personalised, peer-based support for learning program. This approach used an iterative design methodology based on contextual interview, workshops and focus groups to develop personas representing students visiting the program. Initial uses of these developed personas have included training of new personnel as well as the evaluation of the program. Overall the use of this user-centred approach and iterative persona development methodology has yielded an invaluable resource for the design of support for learning programs across the higher education industry within Australia and beyond.

Assessment of the severity of Ebola virus disease in Sierra Leone in 2014–2015

The current Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa is unprecedented in scale, and Sierra Leone is the most severely affected country. The case fatality risk (CFR) and hospitalization fatality risk (HFR) were used to characterize the severity of infections in confirmed and probable EVD cases in Sierra Leone. Proportional hazards regression models were used to investigate factors associated with the risk of death in EVD cases. In total, there were 17 318 EVD cases reported in Sierra Leone from 23 May 2014 to 31 January 2015. Of the probable and confirmed EVD cases with a reported final outcome, a total of 2536 deaths and 886 recoveries were reported. CFR and HFR estimates were 74·2% [95% credibility interval (CrI) 72·6–75·5] and 68·9% (95% CrI 66·2–71·6), respectively. Risks of death were higher in the youngest (0–4 years) and oldest (≥60 years) age groups, and in the calendar month of October 2014. Sex and occupational status did not significantly affect the mortality of EVD. The CFR and HFR estimates of EVD were very high in Sierra Leone.

Exercise and vascular function in child obesity: A meta-analysis

CONTEXT: Conduit artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) is a noninvasive index of preclinical atherosclerosis in humans. Exercise interventions can improve FMD in both healthy and clinical populations. OBJECTIVE: This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to summarize the effect of exercise training on FMD in overweight and obese children and adolescents as well as investigate the role of cardiorespiratory fitness (peak oxygen consumption [Vo2peak]) on effects observed. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Medline, Embase, and Cinahl databases were searched from the earliest available date to February 2015. STUDY SELECTION: Studies of children and/or adolescents who were overweight or obese were included. DATA EXTRACTION: Standardized data extraction forms were used for patient and intervention characteristics, control/comparator groups, and key outcomes. Procedural quality of the studies was assessed using a modified version of the Physiotherapy Evidence Base Database scale. RESULTS: A meta-analysis involving 219 participants compared the mean difference of pre- versus postintervention vascular function (FMD) and Vo2peak between an exercise training intervention and a control condition. There was a significantly greater improvement in FMD (mean difference 1.54%, P < .05) and Vo2peak (mean difference 3.64 mL/kg/min, P < .05) after exercise training compared with controls. LIMITATIONS: Given the diversity of exercise prescriptions, participant characteristics, and FMD measurement protocols, varying FMD effect size was noted between trials. CONCLUSIONS: Exercise training improves vascular function in overweight and obese children, as indicated by enhanced FMD. Further research is required to establish the optimum exercise program for maintenance of healthy vascular function in this at-risk pediatric population.

Critical review on the stability of illicit drugs in sewers and wastewater samples

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) applies advanced analytical methods to quantify drug residues in wastewater with the aim to estimate illicit drug use at the population level. Transformation processes during transport in sewers (chemical and biological reactors) and storage of wastewater samples before analysis are expected to change concentrations of different drugs to varying degrees. Ignoring transformation for drugs with low to medium stability will lead to an unknown degree of systematic under- or overestimation of drug use, which should be avoided. This review aims to summarize the current knowledge related to the stability of commonly investigated drugs and, furthermore, suggest a more effective approach to future experiments. From over 100 WBE studies, around 50 mentioned the importance of stability and 24 included tests in wastewater. Most focused on in-sample stability (i.e., sample preparation, preservation and storage) and some extrapolated to in-sewer stability (i.e., during transport in real sewers). While consistent results were reported for rather stable compounds (e.g., MDMA and methamphetamine), a varying range of stability under different or similar conditions was observed for other compounds (e.g., cocaine, amphetamine and morphine). Wastewater composition can vary considerably over time, and different conditions prevail in different sewer systems. In summary, this indicates that more systematic studies are needed to: i) cover the range of possible conditions in sewers and ii) compare results more objectively. To facilitate the latter, we propose a set of parameters that should be reported for in-sewer stability experiments. Finally, a best practice of sample collection, preservation, and preparation before analysis is suggested in order to minimize transformation during these steps.

Enhancing the shopping experience with ambient displays: A field study in a retail store

This paper discusses the prototypical implementation of an ambient display and the results of an empirical study in a retail store. It presents the context of shopping as an application area for Ambient Intelligence (AmI) technologies. The prototype consists of an ambient store map that enhances the awareness of customer activity. The results of our study indicate potentials and challenges for an improvement of the shopping experience with AmI technologies. Based on our findings we discuss challenges and future developments for applying AmI technologies to shopping environments.

The PerCues framework and its application for sustainable mobility

This paper presents a framework, design and study of an ambient persuasive interface. We introduce a novel framework of persua sive Cues in Ambient Intelligence (perCues). Based on this framework we designed an application for mobile devices. The application aims to persuade people to abstain from using their cars and to use public mass transportation instead in order to reduce emissions. It contains a bus schedule and information about the pollution status. We evaluated the application in two successive studies regarding user acceptance, oppor tune moments of use and persuasive effects. The perCues received a high acceptance due to its benefit for the users. The results confirm the im portance of opportune moment and user acceptance for persuasion. The findings also indicate the persuasive potential of perCues.

Cues in the environment: A design principle for ambient intelligence

The aim of this paper is to propose design principles for ambient intelligence (AmI) environments. The question we are investigating is how these environments can be designed to support a group to be able to carry out common goal-oriented activities. The approach we are taking in answering this question is informed by the concept of collective intelligence (CI). We are applying the concept of CI to AmI as we have found it works well in biological and social systems. Examples from nature demonstrate the power of CI stimulated by implicit cues in the environment. We use these examples to derive design principles for AmI environments. By applying these design principles to a concrete scenario, we are able to propose ways to help decrease environmental pollution within urban areas.

perCues: Trails of persuasion for ambient intelligence

The realization of the ambient intelligence (AmI) vision will have a profound impact on our everyday lives and society. AmI applied in contexts like homes or public spaces will not only affect individual users but influence entire groups of users. The question is how we can apply such technologies to persuade groups and individual users. Our approach is to design AmI environments by borrowing a concept which works very well in biological and social systems: Collective Intelligence (CI). The intelligence of a group surpasses the individual intelligences and leads to improved problem solving capabilities of individuals and groups. From nature we borrow examples of cues in the environment to stimulate goal directed collective intelligence (perCues). The application of perCues in AmI environments helps to persuade users to reach a common goal like decreasing environmental pollution. Adopting CI for AmI we blaze a trail for the design of persuasive AmI environments.

Ductile deformation of single inclusions in simple shear with a finite-strain hyperelastoviscoplastic rheology

We examine the 2D plane-­strain deformation of initially round, matrix-­bonded, deformable single inclusions in isothermal simple shear using a recently introduced hyperelastoviscoplastic rheology. The broad parameter space spanned by the wide range of effective viscosities, yield stresses, relaxation times, and strain rates encountered in the ductile lithosphere is explored systematically for weak and strong inclusions, the effective viscosity of which varies with respect to the matrix. Most inclusion studies to date focused on elastic or purely viscous rheologies. Comparing our results with linear-­viscous inclusions in a linear-­viscous matrix, we observe significantly different shape evolution of weak and strong inclusions over most of the relevant parameter space. The evolution of inclusion inclination relative to the shear plane is more strongly affected by elastic and plastic contributions to rheology in the case of strong inclusions. In addition, we found that strong inclusions deform in the transient viscoelastic stress regime at high Weissenberg numbers (≥0.01) up to bulk shear strains larger than 3. Studies using the shapes of deformed objects for finite-­strain analysis or viscosity-­ratio estimation should establish carefully which rheology and loading conditions reflect material and deformation properties. We suggest that relatively strong, deformable clasts in shear zones retain stored energy up to fairly high shear strains. Hence, purely viscous models of clast deformation may overlook an important contribution to the energy budget, which may drive dissipation processes within and around natural inclusions.