Degradation modeling and monitoring of machines using operation-specific hidden Markov models

In this paper, a novel data-driven approach to monitoring of systems operating under variable operating conditions is described. The method is based on characterizing the degradation process via a set of operation-specific hidden Markov models (HMMs), whose hidden states represent the unobservable degradation states of the monitored system while its observable symbols represent the sensor readings. Using the HMM framework, modeling, identification and monitoring methods are detailed that allow one to identify a HMM of degradation for each operation from mixed-operation data and perform operation-specific monitoring of the system. Using a large data set provided by a major manufacturer, the new methods are applied to a semiconductor manufacturing process running multiple operations in a production environment.

A runtime integrity monitoring framework for real-time relative positioning systems based on GPS and DSRC

This paper provides a three-layered framework to monitor the positioning performance requirements of Real-time Relative Positioning (RRP) systems of the Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems (C-ITS) that support Cooperative Collision Warning (CCW) applications. These applications exploit state data of surrounding vehicles obtained solely from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and Dedicated Short-Range Communications (DSRC) units without using other sensors. To this end, the paper argues the need for the GPS/DSRC-based RRP systems to have an autonomous monitoring mechanism, since the operation of CCW applications is meant to augment safety on roads. The advantages of autonomous integrity monitoring are essential and integral to any safety-of-life system. The autonomous integrity monitoring framework proposed necessitates the RRP systems to detect/predict the unavailability of their sub-systems and of the integrity monitoring module itself, and, if available, to account for effects of data link delays and breakages of DSRC links, as well as of faulty measurement sources of GPS and/or integrated augmentation positioning systems, before the information used for safety warnings/alarms becomes unavailable, unreliable, inaccurate or misleading. Hence, a monitoring framework using a tight integration and correlation approach is proposed for instantaneous reliability assessment of the RRP systems. Ultimately, using the proposed framework, the RRP systems will provide timely alerts to users when the RRP solutions cannot be trusted or used for the intended operation.

Understanding the quantitative skill base on introductory statistics : a case study from business statistics

Basic mathematical skills are critical to a student’s ability to successfully undertake an introductory statistics course. Yet in business education this vitally important area of mathematics and statistics education is under-researched. The question therefore arises as to what level of mathematical skill a typical business studies student will possess as they enter the tertiary environment, and whether there are any common deficiencies that we can identify with a view to tackling the problem. This paper will focus on a study designed to measure the level of mathematical ability of first year business students. The results provide timely insight into a growing problem faced by many tertiary educators in this field.

Temporal Characterization of Ossification of the Crania in Australian Subadults: New standards for Age Estimation using Computed Tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of the ontogeny of cranial maturation, specifically: (1) the fusion timings of primary ossification centers in the basicranium; and (2) the temporal pattern of closure of the anterior fontanelle, to develop new population-specific age standards for medicolegal death investigation of Australian subadults. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating the potential of a contemporary forensic subadult Computed Tomography (CT) database of cranial scans and population data, to recalibrate existing standards for age estimation and quantify growth and development of Australian children. This research welcomes a study design applicable to all countries faced with paucity in skeletal repositories. Accurate assessment of age-at-death of skeletal remains represents a key element in forensic anthropology methodology. In Australian casework, age standards derived from American reference samples are applied in light of scarcity in documented Australian skeletal collections. Currently practitioners rely on antiquated standards, such as the Scheuer and Black1 compilation for age estimation, despite implications of secular trends and population variation. Skeletal maturation standards are population specific and should not be extrapolated from one population to another, while secular changes in skeletal dimensions and accelerated maturation underscore the importance of establishing modern standards to estimate age in modern subadults. Despite CT imaging becoming the gold standard for skeletal analysis in Australia, practitioners caution the application of forensic age standards derived from macroscopic inspection to a CT medium, suggesting a need for revised methodologies. Multi-slice CT scans of subadult crania and cervical vertebrae 1 and 2 were acquired from 350 Australian individuals (males: n=193, females: n=157) aged birth to 12 years. The CT database, projected at 920 individuals upon completion (January 2014), comprises thin-slice DICOM data (resolution: 0.5/0.3mm) of patients scanned since 2010 at major Brisbane Childrens Hospitals. DICOM datasets were subject to manual segmentation, followed by the construction of multi-planar and volume rendering cranial models, for subsequent scoring. The union of primary ossification centers of the occipital bone were scored as open, partially closed or completely closed; while the fontanelles, and vertebrae were scored in accordance with two stages. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate age at transition between union states for each center, and robust age parameters established using Bayesian statistics. In comparison to reported literature, closure of the fontanelles and contiguous sutures in Australian infants occur earlier than reported, with the anterior fontanelle transitioning from open to closed at 16.7±1.1 months. The metopic suture is closed prior to 10 weeks post-partum and completely obliterated by 6 months of age, independent of sex. Utilizing reverse engineering capabilities, an alternate method for infant age estimation based on quantification of fontanelle area and non-linear regression with variance component modeling will be presented. Closure models indicate that the greatest rate of change in anterior fontanelle area occurs prior to 5 months of age. This study complements the work of Scheuer and Black1, providing more specific age intervals for union and temporal maturity of each primary ossification center of the occipital bone. For example, dominant fusion of the sutura intra-occipitalis posterior occurs before 9 months of age, followed by persistence of a hyaline cartilage tongue posterior to the foramen magnum until 2.5 years; with obliteration at 2.9±0.1 years. Recalibrated age parameters for the atlas and axis are presented, with the anterior arch of the atlas appearing at 2.9 months in females and 6.3 months in males; while dentoneural, dentocentral and neurocentral junctions of the axis transitioned from non-union to union at 2.1±0.1 years in females and 3.7±0.1 years in males. These results are an exemplar of significant sexual dimorphism in maturation (p<0.05), with girls exhibiting union earlier than boys, justifying the need for segregated sex standards for age estimation. Studies such as this are imperative for providing updated standards for Australian forensic and pediatric practice and provide an insight into skeletal development of this population. During this presentation, the utility of novel regression models for age estimation of infants will be discussed, with emphasis on three-dimensional modeling capabilities of complex structures such as fontanelles, for the development of new age estimation methods.

Experimental investigations of improved dielectric condition monitoring methods on transformer oil-paper insulation system

Frequency Domain Spectroscopy (FDS) is successfully being used to assess the insulation condition of oil filled power transformers. However, it has to date only been implemented on de-energized transformers, which requires the transformers to be shut down for an extended period which can result in significant costs. To solve this issue, a method of implementing FDS under energized condition is proposed here. A chirp excitation waveform is used to replace the conventional sinusoidal waveform to reduce the measurement time in this method. Investigation of the dielectric response under the influence of a high voltage stress at power frequency is reported based on experimental results. To further understand the insulation ageing process, the geometric capacitance effect is removed to enhance the detection of the ageing signature. This enhancement enables the imaginary part of admittance to be used as a new indicator to assess the ageing status of the insulation.

Old mastheads and new media : newspapers striving to adapt in Australia and South-east Asia

As a key element in their response to new media forcing transformations in mass media and media use, newspapers have deployed various strategies to not only establish online and mobile products, and develop healthy business plans, but to set out to be dominant portals. Their response to change was the subject of an early investigation by one of the present authors (Keshvani 2000). That was part of a set of short studies inquiring into what impact new software applications and digital convergence might have on journalism practice (Tickle and Keshvani 2000), and also looking for demonstrations of the way that innovations, technologies and protocols then under development might produce a “wireless, streamlined electronic news production process (Tickle and Keshvani 2001).” The newspaper study compared the online products of The Age in Melbourne and the Straits Times in Singapore. It provided an audit of the Singapore and Australia Information and Communications Technology (ICT) climate concentrating on the state of development of carrier networks, as a determining factor in the potential strength of the two services with their respective markets. In the outcome, contrary to initial expectations, the early cable roll-out and extensive ‘wiring’ of the city in Singapore had not produced a level of uptake of Internet services as strong as that achieved in Melbourne by more ad hoc and varied strategies. By interpretation, while news websites and online content were at an early stage of development everywhere, and much the same as one another, no determining structural imbalance existed to separate these leading media participants in Australia and South-east Asia. The present research revisits that situation, by again studying the online editions of the two large newspapers in the original study, and one other, The Courier Mail, (recognising the diversification of types of product in this field, by including it as a representative of Newscorp, now a major participant). The inquiry works through the principle of comparison. It is an exercise in qualitative, empirical research that establishes a comparison between the situation in 2000 as described in the earlier work, and the situation in 2014, after a decade of intense development in digital technology affecting the media industries. It is in that sense a follow-up study on the earlier work, although this time giving emphasis to content and style of the actual products as experienced by their users. It compares the online and print editions of each of these three newspapers; then the three mastheads as print and online entities, among themselves; and finally it compares one against the other two, as representing a South-east Asian model and Australian models. This exercise is accompanied by a review of literature on the developments in ICT affecting media production and media organisations, to establish the changed context. The new study of the online editions is conducted as a systematic appraisal of the first level, or principal screens, of the three publications, over the course of six days (10-15.2.14 inclusive). For this, categories for analysis were made, through conducting a preliminary examination of the products over three days in the week before. That process identified significant elements of media production, such as: variegated sourcing of materials; randomness in the presentation of items; differential production values among media platforms considered, whether text, video or stills images; the occasional repurposing and repackaging of top news stories of the day and the presence of standard news values – once again drawn out of the trial ‘bundle’ of journalistic items. Reduced in this way the online artefacts become comparable with the companion print editions from the same days. The categories devised and then used in the appraisal of the online products have been adapted to print, to give the closest match of sets of variables. This device, to study the two sets of publications on like standards -- essentially production values and news values—has enabled the comparisons to be made. This comparing of the online and print editions of each of the three publications was set up as up the first step in the investigation. In recognition of the nature of the artefacts, as ones that carry very diverse information by subject and level of depth, and involve heavy creative investment in the formulation and presentation of the information; the assessment also includes an open section for interpreting and commenting on main points of comparison. This takes the form of a field for text, for the insertion of notes, in the table employed for summarising the features of each product, for each day. When the sets of comparisons as outlined above are noted, the process then becomes interpretative, guided by the notion of change. In the context of changing media technology and publication processes, what substantive alterations have taken place, in the overall effort of news organisations in the print and online fields since 2001; and in their print and online products separately? Have they diverged or continued along similar lines? The remaining task is to begin to make inferences from that. Will the examination of findings enforce the proposition that a review of the earlier study, and a forensic review of new models, does provide evidence of the character and content of change --especially change in journalistic products and practice? Will it permit an authoritative description on of the essentials of such change in products and practice? Will it permit generalisation, and provide a reliable base for discussion of the implications of change, and future prospects? Preliminary observations suggest a more dynamic and diversified product has been developed in Singapore, well themed, obviously sustained by public commitment and habituation to diversified online and mobile media services. The Australian products suggest a concentrated corporate and journalistic effort and deployment of resources, with a strong market focus, but less settled and ordered, and showing signs of limitations imposed by the delay in establishing a uniform, large broadband network. The scope of the study is limited. It is intended to test, and take advantage of the original study as evidentiary material from the early days of newspaper companies’ experimentation with online formats. Both are small studies. The key opportunity for discovery lies in the ‘time capsule’ factor; the availability of well-gathered and processed information on major newspaper company production, at the threshold of a transformational decade of change in their industry. The comparison stands to identify key changes. It should also be useful as a reference for further inquiries of the same kind that might be made, and for monitoring of the situation in regard to newspaper portals on line, into the future.

Board monitoring and the balanced scorecard in nonprofits : challenges in realising potential

Directors of nonprofits in most countries have legal responsibility for monitoring organisational performance (Brody 2010), although there is typically little guidance on how this should occur. The balanced scorecard (BSC) (Kaplan & Norton, 1996, 2001) potentially provides boards with a monitoring tool (Kaplan $ Norton, 2006; Lorsch, 2002). The BSC is intended to help integrate performance measurement, performance management and strategy implmentation (Kaplan 2009). The scorecards is balanced in that it should incorporate both financial and non-financial measures, external and internal perspectives, short and long-term objectives and both lagging and leading indicators. It is a relatively simple tool, but with potentially profound implications for directing board attention and sbusequent action (Ocasio, 1997; Salterio, 2012).

The importance of exotic plantation forest for the New Zealand long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus)

Environmental certification schemes have stimulated increasing interest in biodiversity and its management within exotic plantation forests. These schemes expect management to be scientifically-based, even though little is known about how often, or which, native species use exotic plantation forests. Greater knowledge of the ecology of native species within exotic plantation forests is required to advise management and reduce risks to native species, particularly those that are rare, such as the New Zealand long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus). Long-tailed bats use exotic plantation forests throughout New Zealand but need protection from the impacts of forest management, and particularly clear-fell harvest, that is achievable only through a better understanding of their biology. The consequences of the current reduced re-planting, and the conversion of plantation forests into pasture resulting in smaller forested areas, should not be ignored because they may be associated with reductions in long-tailed bat populations. We review the current knowledge of long-tailed bats' use of exotic plantation forests, and report for the first time which exotic plantations long-tailed bats are known to use. We make recommendations for the design of monitoring programmes to detect long-tailed bats within plantation forests, and for research into the effects of forest management, especially logging, and comment on the likely impacts of reductions in forested areas on long-tailed bats.

Long-tailed bats' use of a Pinus radiata stand in Kinleith Forest : Recommendations for monitoring

Targeted monitoring of threatened species within plantations is becoming more important due to forest certification programmes’ requirement to consider protection of threatened species, and to increase knowledge of the distribution of species. To determine patterns of long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) activity in different habitat structures, with the aim of improving the likelihood of detection by targeting monitoring, we monitored one stand of 26 year-old Pinus radiata over seven months between December 2007 and June 2008 in Kinleith Forest, an exotic plantation forest centred around Tokoroa, South Waikato, New Zealand. Activity was determined by acoustic recording equipment, which is able to detect and record bats’ echolocation calls. We monitored activity from sunset to sunrise along a road through the stand, along stand edges, and in the interior of the stand. Bats were recorded on 80% of the 35 nights monitored. All activity throughout the monitoring period was detected on the edge of the stand or along the road. No bats were detected within the interior of the stand. Bat activity was highest along the road through the stand (40.4% of all passes), followed by an edge with stream running alongside (35.2%), along the road within a skidsite (19.8%), and along an edge without a stream (4.6%). There was a significant positive relationship between bat pass rate (bat passes h-1) and the feeding buzz rate (feeding buzzes h-1) indicating that bat activity was associated with feeding and not just commuting. Bat feeding activity was also highest along the road through the stand (59.2% of feeding buzzes), followed by the road within the skidsite (30.6%), and along the stream-side edge (10.2%). No feeding buzzes were recorded in either the interior or along the edge without the stream. Differences in overall feeding activity were significant only between the road and edge and between edges with and without a stream. Bat activity was detected each month and always by the second night of monitoring, and in this stand was highest during April. We recommend targeted monitoring for long-tailed bats be focused on road-side and stand edge habitat, and along streams, and that monitoring take place for at least three nights to maximise probability of detection.

Evidence of homing following translocation of long‐tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) at Grand Canyon Cave, New Zealand

Homing behaviour in the New Zealand long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus), a temperate insectivorous species, was investigated at Grand Canyon Cave, central North Island. A pilot study of nine adult male bats was conducted to determine whether use of the cave was regular enough for a homing study. Eight bats returned to the cave over the 3 week monitoring period, six on the night of the following release. Nine additional bats carrying radio transmitters were then released at three sites (three at each site) c.5, 10 and 20km due east of the border of, and outside the population's known familiar area respectively. All but one of these nine was subsequently detected at the cave. Results suggest that adult long-tailed bats are able to return home following displacement both inside and outside their familiar area. Implications of these findings for translocations of bats and the possessions of a potential long distance navigation system by this species are discussed.

Knowledge gain or system benefit in environmental decision making?

The quality of environmental decisions are gauged according to the management objectives of a conservation project. Management objectives are generally about maximising some quantifiable measure of system benefit, for instance population growth rate. They can also be defined in terms of learning about the system in question, in such a case actions would be chosen that maximise knowledge gain, for instance in experimental management sites. Learning about a system can also take place when managing practically. The adaptive management framework (Walters 1986) formally acknowledges this fact by evaluating learning in terms of how it will improve management of the system and therefore future system benefit. This is taken into account when ranking actions using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP). However, the benefits of any management action lie on a spectrum from pure system benefit, when there is nothing to be learned about the system, to pure knowledge gain. The current adaptive management framework does not permit management objectives to evaluate actions over the full range of this spectrum. By evaluating knowledge gain in units distinct to future system benefit this whole spectrum of management objectives can be unlocked. This paper outlines six decision making policies that differ across the spectrum of pure system benefit through to pure learning. The extensions to adaptive management presented allow specification of the relative importance of learning compared to system benefit in management objectives. Such an extension means practitioners can be more specific in the construction of conservation project objectives and be able to create policies for experimental management sites in the same framework as practical management sites.

Investigation into chemistry of new particle formation and growth in subtropical urban environment

The role of different chemical compounds, particularly organics, involved in the new particle formation (NPF) and its consequent growth are not fully understood. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the chemistry of aerosol particles during NPF events in an urban subtropical environment. Aerosol chemical composition was measured along with particle number size distribution (PNSD) and several other air quality parameters at five sites across an urban subtropical environment. An Aerodyne compact Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (c-TOF-AMS) and a TSI Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) measured aerosol chemical composition and PNSD, respectively. Five NPF events, with growth rates in the range 3.3-4.6 nm, were detected at two sites. The NPF events happened on relatively warmer days with lower humidity and higher solar radiation. Temporal percent fractions of nitrate, sulphate, ammonium and organics were modelled using the Generalised Additive Model (GAM), with a basis of penalised spline. Percent fractions of organics increased after the NPF events, while the mass fraction of ammonium and sulphate decreased. This uncovered the important role of organics in the growth of newly formed particles. Three organic markers, factors f43, f44 and f57, were calculated and the f44 vs f43 trends were compared between nucleation and non-nucleation days. f44 vs f43 followed a different pattern on nucleation days compared to non-nucleation days, whereby f43 decreased for vehicle emission generated particles, while both f44 and f43 decreased for NPF generated particles. It was found for the first time that vehicle generated and newly formed particles cluster in different locations on f44 vs f43 plot and this finding can be used as a tool for source apportionment of measured particles.

Colonoscopy requirements of population screening for colorectal cancer in New Zealand

Aim: To estimate the colonoscopy burden of introducing population screening for colorectal cancer in New Zealand. Methods: Screening for colorectal cancer using biennial immunochemical faecal occult blood tests offered to people aged 50-74 years of age was modelled using population estimates from Statistics New Zealand for 2011-2031. Modelling to determine colonoscopy requirements was based on participation and test positivity rates from published results of screening programmes. Estimates of the number of procedures required for ongoing adenoma surveillance were calculated using screening literature results of adenoma yield, and New Zealand Guidelines for Adenoma Surveillance. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken on key parameters. Results: For a test positivity of 6.4%, biennial screening using immunochemical faecal occult blood testing with a 60% participation rate, would require 18,000 colonoscopies nationally, increasing to 28,000 by 2031. The majority of procedures are direct referrals from a positive FOBT, with surveillance colonoscopy numbers building over time. Conclusion: Colonoscopy requirements for immunochemical faecal occult blood based population screening for colorectal cancer are high. Significant expansion of services is required and careful management of surveillance procedures to ensure timely delivery of initial colonoscopies whilst maintaining symptomatic services. A model re-run informed by data from the screening pilot will allow improved estimates for the New Zealand setting.

A new twist on mode indicator functions

Mode indicator functions (MIFs) are used in modal testing and analysis as a means of identifying modes of vibration, often as a precursor to modal parameter estimation. Various methods have been developed since the MIF was introduced four decades ago. These methods are quite useful in assisting the analyst to identify genuine modes and, in the case of the complex mode indicator function, have even been developed into modal parameter estimation techniques. Although the various MIFs are able to indicate the existence of a mode, they do not provide the analyst with any descriptive information about the mode. This paper uses the simple summation type of MIF to develop five averaged and normalised MIFs that will provide the analyst with enough information to identify whether a mode is longitudinal, vertical, lateral or torsional. The first three functions, termed directional MIFs, have been noted in the literature in one form or another; however, this paper introduces a new twist on the MIF by introducing two MIFs, termed torsional MIFs, that can be used by the analyst to identify torsional modes and, moreover, can assist in determining whether the mode is of a pure torsion or sway type (i.e., having a rigid cross-section) or a distorted twisting type. The directional and torsional MIFs are tested on a finite element model based simulation of an experimental modal test using an impact hammer. Results indicate that the directional and torsional MIFs are indeed useful in assisting the analyst to identify whether a mode is longitudinal, vertical, lateral, sway, or torsion.

Monitoring changes of the tibialis anterior during dorsiflexion with electromyography, sonomyography, dynamometry and kinematic signals

Dorsiflexion (DF) of the foot plays an essential role in both controlling balance and human gait. Electromyography and Sonomyography can provide information on several aspects of muscle function. The aim was to describe a new method for real-time monitoring of muscular activity, as measured using EMG, muscular architecture, as measured using SMG, force, as measured using dynamometry, and kinematic parameters, as measured using IS during isometric and isotonic contractions of the foot DF. The present methodology may be clinically relevant because it involves a reproducible procedure which allows the function and structure of the foot DF to be monitored.