Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region, 1955–2004

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most important emerging arboviral human diseases. Globally, DF incidence has increased by 30-fold over the last fifty years, and the geographic range of the virus and its vectors has expanded. The disease is now endemic in more than 120 countries in tropical and subtropical parts of the world. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region over a 50-year period, and identified the disease's cluster areas. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: The World Health Organization's DengueNet provided the annual number of DF cases in 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region for the period 1955 to 2004. This fifty-year dataset was divided into five ten-year periods as the basis for the investigation of DF transmission trends. Space-time cluster analyses were conducted using scan statistics to detect the disease clusters. This study shows an increasing trend in the spatiotemporal distribution of DF in the Asia-Pacific region over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Singapore and Malaysia are identified as the most likely clusters (relative risk = 13.02) of DF transmission in this region in the period studied (1995 to 2004). The study also indicates that, for the most part, DF transmission has expanded southwards in the region. CONCLUSIONS: This information will lead to the improvement of DF prevention and control strategies in the Asia-Pacific region by prioritizing control efforts and directing them where they are most needed.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of theworld. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald’s formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are nowused to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context formosquito blood feeding, themovement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

Anatomy of sand beach ridges : evidence from severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi and its predecessors, northeast Queensland, Australia

[1] Four well-identified tropical cyclones over the past century have been responsible for depositing distinct units of predominantly quartzose sand and gravel to form the most seaward beach ridge at several locations along the wet tropical coast of northeast Queensland, Australia. These units deposited by tropical cyclones display a key sedimentary signature characterized by a sharp basal erosional contact, a coarser grain size than the underlying facies and a coarse-skewed trend toward the base. Coarse-skewed distributions with minimal change in mean grain size also characterize the upper levels of the high-energy deposited units at locations within the zone of maximum onshore winds during the tropical cyclone. These same coarse skew distributions are not apparent in sediments deposited at locations where predominantly offshore winds occurred during the cyclone, which in the case of northeast Australia is north of the eye-crossing location. These sedimentary signatures, along with the geochemical indicators and the degraded nature of the microfossil assemblages, have proven to be useful proxies to identify storm-deposited units within the study site and can also provide useful proxies in older beach ridges where advanced pedogenesis has obscured visual stratigraphic markers. As a consequence, more detailed long-term histories of storms and tropical cyclones can now be developed.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

A systematic review of community-based interventions for emerging zoonotic diseases in Southeast Asia

Background Southeast Asia has been at the epicentre of recent epidemics of emerging and re-emerging zoonotic diseases. Community-based surveillance and control interventions have been heavily promoted but the most effective interventions have not been identified. Objectives This review evaluated evidence for the effectiveness of community-based surveillance interventions at monitoring and identifying emerging infectious disease; the effectiveness of community-based control interventions at reducing rates of emerging infectious disease; and contextual factors that influence intervention effectiveness. Inclusion criteria Participants Communities in Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. Types of intervention(s) Non-pharmaceutical, non-vaccine, and community-based surveillance or prevention and control interventions targeting rabies, Nipah virus , dengue, SARS or avian influenza. Types of outcomes Primary outcomes: measures: of infection or disease; secondary outcomes: measures of intervention function. Types of studies Original quantitative studies published in English. Search strategy Databases searched (1980 to 2011): PubMed, CINAHL, ProQuest, EBSCOhost, Web of Science, Science Direct, Cochrane database of systematic reviews, WHOLIS, British Development Library, LILACS, World Bank (East Asia), Asian Development Bank. Methodological quality Two independent reviewers critically appraised studies using standard Joanna Briggs Institute instruments. Disagreements were resolved through discussion. Data extraction A customised tool was used to extract quantitative data on intervention(s), populations, study methods, and primary and secondary outcomes; and qualitative contextual information or narrative evidence about interventions. Data synthesis Data was synthesised in a narrative summary with the aid of tables. Meta-analysis was used to statistically pool quantitative results. Results Fifty-seven studies were included. Vector control interventions using copepods, environmental cleanup and education are effective and sustainable at reducing dengue in rural and urban communities, whilst insecticide spraying is effective in urban outbreak situations. Community-based surveillance interventions can effectively identify avian influenza in backyard flocks, but have not been broadly applied. Outbreak control interventions for Nipah virus and SARS are effective but may not be suitable for ongoing control. Canine vaccination and education is more acceptable than culling, but still fails to reach coverage levels required to effectively control rabies. Contextual factors were identified that influence community engagement with, and ultimately effectiveness of, interventions. Conclusion Despite investment in community-based disease control and surveillance in Southeast Asia, published evidence evaluating interventions is limited in quantity and quality. Nonetheless this review identified a number of effective interventions, and several contextual factors influencing effectiveness. Identification of the best programs will require comparative evidence of effectiveness acceptability, cost-effectiveness and sustainability.

When supply does not meet demand-ER stress and plant programmed cell death

The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) is the central organelle in the eukaryotic secretory pathway. The ER functions in protein synthesis and maturation and is crucial for proper maintenance of cellular homeostasis and adaptation to adverse environments. Acting as a cellular sentinel, the ER is exquisitely sensitive to changing environments principally via the ER quality control machinery. When perturbed, ER-stress triggers a tightly regulated and highly conserved, signal transduction pathway known as the unfolded protein response (UPR) that prevents the dangerous accumulation of unfolded/misfolded proteins. In situations where excessive UPR activity surpasses threshold levels, cells deteriorate and eventually trigger programmed cell death (PCD) as a way for the organism to cope with dysfunctional or toxic signals. The programmed cell death that results from excessive ER stress in mammalian systems contributes to several important diseases including hypoxia, neurodegeneration, and diabetes. Importantly, hallmark features and markers of cell death that are associated with ER stress in mammals are also found in plants. In particular, there is a common, conserved set of chaperones that modulate ER cell death signaling. Here we review the elements of plant cell death responses to ER stress and note that an increasing number of plant-pathogen interactions are being identified in which the host ER is targeted by plant pathogens to establish compatibility.

Conceptualising, evaluating and reporting social resilience in vulnerable regional and remote communities facing climate change in tropical Queensland : marine and tropical sciences research facility transition project final report

Regional and remote communities in tropical Queensland are among Australia’s most vulnerable in the face of climate change. At the same time, these socially and economically vulnerable regions house some of Australia’s most significant biodiversity values. Past approaches to terrestrial biodiversity management have focused on tackling biophysical interventions through the use of biophysical knowledge. An equally important focus should be placed on building regional-scale community resilience if some of the worst biodiversity impacts of climate change are to be avoided or mitigated. Despite its critical need, more systemic or holistic approaches to natural resource management have been rarely trialed and tested in a structured way. Currently, most strategic interventions in improving regional community resilience are ad hoc, not theory-based and short term. Past planning approaches have not been durable, nor have they been well informed by clear indicators. Research into indicators for community resilience has been poorly integrated within adaptive planning and management cycles. This project has aimed to resolve this problem by: * Reviewing the community and social resilience and adaptive planning literature to reconceptualise an improved framework for applying community resilience concepts; * Harvesting and extending work undertaken in MTSRF Phase 1 to identifying the learnings emerging from past MTSRF research; * Distilling these findings to identify new theoretical and practical approaches to the application of community resilience in natural resource use and management; * Reconsidering the potential interplay between a region’s biophysical and social planning processes, with a focus on exploring spatial tools to communicate climate change risk and its consequent environmental, economic and social impacts, and; * Trialling new approaches to indicator development and adaptive planning to improve community resilience, using a sub-regional pilot in the Wet Tropics. In doing so, we also looked at ways to improve the use and application of relevant spatial information. Our theoretical review drew upon the community development, psychology and emergency management literature to better frame the concept of community resilience relative to aligned concepts of social resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Firstly, we consider community resilience as a concept that can be considered at a range of scales (e.g. regional, locality, communities of interest, etc.). We also consider that overall resilience at higher scales will be influenced by resilience levels at lesser scales (inclusive of the resilience of constituent institutions, families and individuals). We illustrate that, at any scale, resilience and vulnerability are not necessarily polar opposites, and that some understanding of vulnerability is important in determining resilience. We position social resilience (a concept focused on the social characteristics of communities and individuals) as an important attribute of community resilience, but one that needs to be considered alongside economic, natural resource, capacity-based and governance attributes. The findings from the review of theory and MTSRF Phase 1 projects were synthesized and refined by the wider project team. Five predominant themes were distilled from this literature, research review and an expert analysis. They include the findings that: 1. Indicators have most value within an integrated and adaptive planning context, requiring an active co-research relationship between community resilience planners, managers and researchers if real change is to be secured; 2. Indicators of community resilience form the basis for planning for social assets and the resilience of social assets is directly related the longer term resilience of natural assets. This encourages and indeed requires the explicit development and integration of social planning within a broader natural resource planning and management framework; 3. Past indicator research and application has not provided a broad picture of the key attributes of community resilience and there have been many attempts to elicit lists of “perfect” indicators that may never be useful within the time and resource limitations of real world regional planning and management. We consider that modeling resilience for proactive planning and prediction purposes requires the consideration of simple but integrated clusters of attributes; 4. Depending on time and resources available for planning and management, the combined use of well suited indicators and/or other lesser “lines of evidence” is more flexible than the pursuit of perfect indicators, and that; 5. Index-based, collaborative and participatory approaches need to be applied to the development, refinement and reporting of indicators over longer time frames. We trialed the practical application of these concepts via the establishment of a collaborative regional alliance of planners and managers involved in the development of climate change adaptation strategies across tropical Queensland (the Gulf, Wet Tropics, Cape York and Torres Strait sub-regions). A focus on the Wet Tropics as a pilot sub-region enabled other Far North Queensland sub-region’s to participate and explore the potential extension of this approach. The pilot activities included: * Further exploring ways to innovatively communicate the region’s likely climate change scenarios and possible environmental, economic and social impacts. We particularly looked at using spatial tools to overlay climate change risks to geographic communities and social vulnerabilities within those communities; * Developing a cohesive first pass of a State of the Region-style approach to reporting community resilience, inclusive of regional economic viability, community vitality, capacitybased and governance attributes. This framework integrated a literature review, expert (academic and community) and alliance-based contributions; and * Early consideration of critical strategies that need to be included in unfolding regional planning activities with Far North Queensland. The pilot assessment finds that rural, indigenous and some urban populations in the Wet Tropics are highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change and may require substantial support to adapt and become more resilient. This assessment finds that under current conditions (i.e. if significant adaptation actions are not taken) the Wet Tropics as a whole may be seriously impacted by the most significant features of climate change and extreme climatic events. Without early and substantive action, this could result in declining social and economic wellbeing and natural resource health. Of the four attributes we consider important to understanding community resilience, the Wet Tropics region is particularly vulnerable in two areas; specifically its economic vitality and knowledge, aspirations and capacity. The third and fourth attributes, community vitality and institutional governance are relatively resilient but are vulnerable in some key respects. In regard to all four of these attributes, however, there is some emerging capacity to manage the possible shocks that may be associated with the impacts of climate change and extreme climatic events. This capacity needs to be carefully fostered and further developed to achieve broader community resilience outcomes. There is an immediate need to build individual, household, community and sectoral resilience across all four attribute groups to enable populations and communities in the Wet Tropics region to adapt in the face of climate change. Preliminary strategies of importance to improve regional community resilience have been identified. These emerging strategies also have been integrated into the emerging Regional Development Australia Roadmap, and this will ensure that effective implementation will be progressed and coordinated. They will also inform emerging strategy development to secure implementation of the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan. Of most significance in our view, this project has taken a co-research approach from the outset with explicit and direct importance and influence within the region’s formal planning and management arrangements. As such, the research: * Now forms the foundations of the first attempt at “Social Asset” planning within the Wet Tropics Regional NRM Plan review; * Is assisting Local government at regional scale to consider aspects of climate change adaptation in emerging planning scheme/community planning processes; * Has partnered the State government (via the Department of Infrastructure and Planning and Regional Managers Coordination Network Chair) in progressing the Climate Change adaptation agenda set down within the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan; * Is informing new approaches to report on community resilience within the GBRMPA Outlook reporting framework; and * Now forms the foundation for the region’s wider climate change adaptation priorities in the Regional Roadmap developed by Regional Development Australia. Through the auspices of Regional Development Australia, the outcomes of the research will now inform emerging negotiations concerning a wider package of climate change adaptation priorities with State and Federal governments. Next stage research priorities are also being developed to enable an ongoing alliance between researchers and the region’s climate change response.

What does it mean to 'securitize' infectious diseases?

This paper seeks to explain how the selective securitization of infectious disease arose, and to analyze the policy successes from this move. It is argued that despite some success, such as the revised International Health Regulations (IHR) in 2005, there remain serious deficiencies in the political outputs from the securitization of infectious disease.

SWIRLnet : portable anemometer network for wind speed measurements of land-falling tropical cyclones

Wind speed measurement systems are sparse in the tropical regions of Australia. Tropical cyclone wind speeds impacting communities are often ‘guestimated’ from analyzing damaged structures. A re-locatable anemometer system is required to enable measurements of wind speeds. This paper discusses design criteria of the tripods and tie down system, proposed deployment of the anemometers, instrumentation, and data logging. Preliminary assessment of the anemometer response indicates a reliable system for 1 second response, however, it is noted that the Australian building code and wind loading standard uses a moving average time of approximately 0.2 seconds for its wind speed design criteria.

Wind speed measurements of land-falling tropical cyclones using SWIRLnet, a portable anemometer network

Wind speed measurement systems are sparse in the tropical regions of Australia. Given this, tropical cyclone wind speeds impacting communities are seldom measured and often only ‘guestimated’ by analysing the extent of damage to structures. In an attempt to overcome this dearth of data, a re-locatable network of anemometers to be deployed prior to tropical cyclone landfall is currently being developed. This paper discusses design criteria of the network’s tripods and tie down system, proposed deployment of the anemometers, instrumentation and data logging. Preliminary assessment of the anemometer response indicates a reliable system for measuring the spectral component of wind with frequencies of approximately 1 Hz. This system limitation highlights an important difference between the capabilities of modern instrumentation and that of the Dines anemometer (around 0.2 seconds) that was used to develop much of the design criteria within the Australian building code and wind loading standard.

Taking travel journalism seriously : suggestions for scientific inquiry into a neglected genre

The practice of travel journalism is still largely neglected as a field of inquiry for communication and journalism scholars, despite the fact that news media are increasingly focussing on softer news. Lifestyle sections of newspapers, for example, have been growing in size over the past few decades, and given corresponding cutbacks in international news reporting, particularly travel journalism is now playing a growing role in the representation of ‘the Other’. While this need for research into the field has been identified before, very little actual investigation of travel journalism has been forthcoming. This paper reviews the current state of research by reviewing what studies have been conducted into the production, content and reception of travel journalism. It argues that while there does now exist a very small number of studies, these have often been conducted in isolation and with significant limitations, and much remains to be done to sufficiently explore this sub-field of journalism. By analysing what we do know about travel journalism, the paper suggests a number of possibilities in each area on how we can advance this knowledge. Above all, it contends that dated prejudices against the field have to be put to the side, and the practice of travel journalism needs to be taken seriously in order to do its growing importance justice.

Burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Nepal and the availability and affordability of NCD medicines

Background: Traditionally communicable diseases were the main causes of burden in developing countries like Nepal. In recent years non-communicable diseases (NCDs), mainly cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), cancer, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes mellitus, impose a larger disease burden compared to communicable diseases. Most elements of health and medicine policies in Nepal are still focused on communicable diseases. There is limited evidence about NCDs and NCD medicines in Nepal. Aim: To explore the gap between the burden of NCDs and the availability and affordability of NCD medicines in Nepal. Methods: Biomedical databases like Medline, Scopus, Web of Science and other online sources (including Global Burden of Diseases data) were searched for data on the burden of NCDs in term of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). The Essential Medicines List (EML) of Nepal was compared with World Health Organisation (EML) for inclusion of NCD medicines. Results: In Nepal, NCDs caused nearly 45% of the total 10.5 million DALYs in 2010. CVDs (15.2%), were the leading cause of NCDs burden followed by chronic respiratory diseases (14.7%), cancer (7.3%) and diabetes mellitus (3.2%). One hospital based national survey found that 37% of hospitalised patients had NCDs. Among them, 38% had heart disease followed by COPD (33%) , and diabetes (10%). Most (23 out of 28) non-cancer NCD medicines recommended in WHO-EML were present in Nepal's EML, theoretically indicating good availability. However, it is difficult to say whether they are accessible and affordable due to the lack of adequate data on access and pricing. Conclusion: This study gives some insight into the burden of NCDs. Although NCD medicines are available in Nepal, further research is required to determine whether they are accessible and affordable to the general population.

Impact of nitrification inhibitor (DMPP) on soil nitrous oxide emissions from an intensive broccoli production system in sub-tropical Australia

Vegetable cropping systems are often characterised by high inputs of nitrogen fertiliser. Elevated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) can be expected as a consequence. In order to mitigate N2O emissions from fertilised agricultural fields, the use of nitrification inhibitors, in combination with ammonium based fertilisers, has been promoted. However, no data is currently available on the use of nitrification inhibitors in sub-tropical vegetable systems. A field experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of the nitrification inhibitor 3,4-dimethylpyrazole phosphate (DMPP) on N2O emissions and yield from broccoli production in sub-tropical Australia. Soil N2O fluxes were monitored continuously (3 h sampling frequency) with fully automated, pneumatically operated measuring chambers linked to a sampling control system and a gas chromatograph. Cumulative N2O emissions over the 5 month observation period amounted to 298 g-N/ha, 324 g-N/ha, 411 g-N/ha and 463 g-N/ha in the conventional fertiliser (CONV), the DMPP treatment (DMPP), the DMMP treatment with a 10% reduced fertiliser rate (DMPP-red) and the zero fertiliser (0N), respectively. The temporal variation of N2O fluxes showed only low emissions over the broccoli cropping phase, but significantly elevated emissions were observed in all treatments following broccoli residues being incorporated into the soil. Overall 70–90% of the total emissions occurred in this 5 weeks fallow phase. There was a significant inhibition effect of DMPP on N2O emissions and soil mineral N content over the broccoli cropping phase where the application of DMPP reduced N2O emissions by 75% compared to the standard practice. However, there was no statistical difference between the treatments during the fallow phase or when the whole season was considered. This study shows that DMPP has the potential to reduce N2O emissions from intensive vegetable systems, but also highlights the importance of post-harvest emissions from incorporated vegetable residues. N2O mitigation strategies in vegetable systems need to target these post-harvest emissions and a better evaluation of the effect of nitrification inhibitors over the fallow phase is needed.