A dynamic approach to forecast rental growth

Numerous econometric models have been proposed for forecasting property market performance, but limited success has been achieved in finding a reliable and consistent model to predict property market movements over a five to ten year timeframe. This research focuses on office rental growth forecasts and overviews many of the office rent models that have evolved over the past 20 years. A model by DiPasquale and Wheaton is selected for testing in the Brisbane, Australia office market. The adaptation of this study did not provide explanatory variables that could assist in developing a reliable, predictive model of office rental growth. In light of this result, the paper suggests a system dynamics framework that includes an econometric model based on historical data as well as user input guidance for the primary variables. The rent forecast outputs would be assessed having regard to market expectations and probability profiling undertaken for use in simulation exercises. The paper concludes with ideas for ongoing research.

Crystal growth from undercooling melts under strong gradients of temperatures generating in short-duration microgravity

Crystal growth of bulk CdTe in short-duration microgravity is performed by the unidirectional cooling method. The largest growth grains in microgravity samples are 4X2mm. The cooling profiles indicate undercooling melts in microgravity. Cooling melt samples in microgravity generate strong gradient of temperature due to stop thermal convections. Temperature distribution in the melt is calculated by the one-dimensional equation of heat conduction, and about 100 K-undercooling is considered to occur at the cooling surface.

Glycosaminoglycan and growth factor mediated murine calvarial cell proliferation

Understanding the complex mechanisms underlying bone remodeling is crucial to the development of novel therapeutics. Glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) localised to the extracellular matrix (ECM) of bone are thought to play a key role in mediating aspects of bone development. The influence of isolated GAGs was studied by utilising in vitro murine calvarial monolayer and organ culture model systems. Addition of GAG preparations extracted from the cell surface of human osteoblasts at high concentrations (5 microg/ml) resulted in decreased proliferation of cells and decreased suture width and number of bone lining cells in calvarial sections. When we investigated potential interactions between the growth factors fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF2), bone morphogenic protein-2 (BMP2) and transforming growth factor-beta1 (TGFbeta1) and the isolated cell surface GAGs, differences between the two model systems emerged. The cell culture system demonstrated a potentiating role for the isolated GAGs in the inhibition of FGF2 and TGFbeta1 actions. In contrast, the organ culture system demonstrated an enhanced stimulation of TFGbeta1 effects. These results emphasise the role of the ECM in mediating the interactions between GAGs and growth factors during bone development and suggest the GAG preparations contain potent inhibitory or stimulatory components able to mediate growth factor activity.

Endogenous mortality, human capital and economic growth

We consider growth and welfare effects of lifetime-uncertainty in an economy with human capital-led endogenous growth. We argue that lifetime uncertainty reduces private incentives to invest in both physical and human capital. Using an overlapping generations framework with finite-lived households we analyze the relevance of government expenditure on health and education to counter such growth-reducing forces. We focus on three different models that differ with respect to the mode of financing of education: (i) both private and public spending, (ii) only public spending, and (iii) only private spending. Results show that models (i) and (iii) outperform model (ii) with respect to long-term growth rates of per capita income, welfare levels and other important macroeconomic indicators. Theoretical predictions of model rankings for these macroeconomic indicators are also supported by observed stylized facts.

Common variation in the fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 gene is not associated with endometriosis risk

BACKGROUND Endometriosis is a polygenic disease with a complex and multifactorial aetiology that affects 8-10% of women of reproductive age. Epidemiological data support a link between endometriosis and cancers of the reproductive tract. Fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 (FGFR2) has recently been implicated in both endometrial and breast cancer. Our previous studies on endometriosis identified significant linkage to a novel susceptibility locus on chromosome 10q26 and the FGFR2 gene maps within this linkage region. We therefore hypothesized that variation in FGFR2 may contribute to the risk of endometriosis. METHODS We genotyped 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) densely covering a 27 kb region within intron 2 of FGFR2 including two SNPs (rs2981582 and rs1219648) significantly associated with breast cancer and a total 40 tagSNPs across 150 kb of the FGFR2 gene. SNPs were genotyped in 958 endometriosis cases and 959 unrelated controls. RESULTS We found no evidence for association between endometriosis and FGFR2 intron 2 SNPs or SNP haplotypes and no evidence for association between endometriosis and variation across the FGFR2 gene. CONCLUSIONS Common variation in the breast-cancer implicated intron 2 and other highly plausible causative candidate regions of FGFR2 do not appear to be a major contributor to endometriosis susceptibility in our large Australian sample.