5-year Chlamydia vaccination programme could reverse disease-related koala population decline: Predictions from a mathematical model using field data

BACKGROUND Many koala populations around Australia are in serious decline, with a substantial component of this decline in some Southeast Queensland populations attributed to the impact of Chlamydia. A Chlamydia vaccine for koalas is in development and has shown promise in early trials. This study contributes to implementation preparedness by simulating vaccination strategies designed to reverse population decline and by identifying which age and sex category it would be most effective to target. METHODS We used field data to inform the development and parameterisation of an individual-based stochastic simulation model of a koala population endemic with Chlamydia. The model took into account transmission, morbidity and mortality caused by Chlamydia infections. We calibrated the model to characteristics of typical Southeast Queensland koala populations. As there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the vaccine in real-world settings, a variety of potential vaccine efficacies, half-lives and dosing schedules were simulated. RESULTS Assuming other threats remain constant, it is expected that current population declines could be reversed in around 5-6 years if female koalas aged 1-2 years are targeted, average vaccine protective efficacy is 75%, and vaccine coverage is around 10% per year. At lower vaccine efficacies the immunological effects of boosting become important: at 45% vaccine efficacy population decline is predicted to reverse in 6 years under optimistic boosting assumptions but in 9 years under pessimistic boosting assumptions. Terminating a successful vaccination programme at 5 years would lead to a rise in Chlamydia prevalence towards pre-vaccination levels. CONCLUSION For a range of vaccine efficacy levels it is projected that population decline due to endemic Chlamydia can be reversed under realistic dosing schedules, potentially in just 5 years. However, a vaccination programme might need to continue indefinitely in order to maintain Chlamydia prevalence at a sufficiently low level for population growth to continue.

A 4-DOF SIMULINK model of a coastal patrol vessel for manoeuvring in waves

This paper presents a detailed simulation model of a Naval coastal patrol vessel. The vessel described is a 50m long, fast monohull coastal patrol vessel. The paper describes the complete model and its implementation in Matlab-Simulink. In order to promote the use of this model, the Simulink files are openly available through a website.

Context-sensitive evaluation: Determining the context surrounding the implementation of a government policy

This article explains the essence of the context-sensitive parameters and dimensions in play at the time of an intervention, through the application of Rog’s (2012) model of contextual parameters. Rog’s model offers evaluators a structured approach to examine an intervention. The initial study provided a systematic way to clarify the scope, variables, timing, and appropriate evaluation methodology to evaluate the implementation of a government policy. Given that the government implementation of an educational intervention under study did not follow the experimental research approach, nor the double cycle of action research approach, the application of Rog’s model provided an in-depth understanding of the context-sensitive environment; it is from this clear purpose that the broader evaluation was conducted. Overall, when governments or institutions implement policy to invoke educational change (and this intervention is not guided by an appropriate evaluation approach), then program evaluation is achievable post-implementation. In this situation, Rog’s (2012) model of contextual parameters is a useful way to achieve clarity of purpose to guide the program evaluation.

Understanding the determinants of Australian hospital nurses' hand hygiene decisions following the implementation of a national hand hygiene initiative

Hand hygiene is the primary measure in hospitals to reduce the spread of infections, with nurses experiencing the greatest frequency of patient contact. The ‘5 critical moments’ of hand hygiene initiative has been implemented in hospitals across Australia, accompanied by awareness-raising, staff training and auditing. The aim of this study was to understand the determinants of nurses’ hand hygiene decisions, using an extension of a common health decision-making model, the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), to inform future health education strategies to increase compliance. Nurses from 50 Australian hospitals (n = 2378) completed standard TPB measures (attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control [PBC], intention) and the extended variables of group norm, risk perceptions (susceptibility, severity) and knowledge (subjective, objective) at Time 1, while a sub-sample (n = 797) reported their hand hygiene behaviour 2 weeks later. Regression analyses identified subjective norm, PBC, group norm, subjective knowledge and risk susceptibility as the significant predictors of nurses’ hand hygiene intentions, with intention and PBC predicting their compliance behaviour. Rather than targeting attitudes which are already very favourable among nurses, health education strategies should focus on normative influences and perceptions of control and risk in efforts to encourage hand hygiene adherence.

Evaluation of the implementation of the prostate cancer specialist nurse role

A national prostate cancer specialist nursing pilot program, supported by Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia, was launched in May 2012 with funding support from The Movember Foundation. The pilot program aimed to trial a best practice model for providing specialist nursing care to those affected by prostate cancer. Prostate cancer specialist nurses were allocated to 12 hospitals across all Australian states and territories to work in the context of multidisciplinary care. The Prostate Cancer Foundation provided professional development support for nurses through a structured program. This article presents key outcomes from the research commissioned by the Prostate Cancer Foundation to evaluate the prostate cancer specialist nurse role. Specifically, the paper reports evaluation data relating to the roles and functions of the prostate cancer specialist nurse to explore the influence of the role on outcomes for patients, carers and services.

Principles to guide sustainable implementation of extended-scope-of-practice physiotherapy workforce redesign initiatives in Australia: Stakeholder perspectives, barriers, supports, and incentives

Sustainable implementation of new workforce redesign initiatives requires strategies that minimize barriers and optimize supports. Such strategies could be provided by a set of guiding principles. A broad understanding of the concerns of all the key stakeholder groups is required before effective strategies and initiatives are developed. Many new workforce redesign initiatives are not underpinned by prior planning, and this threatens their uptake and sustainability. This study reports on a cross-sectional qualitative study that sought the perspectives of representatives of key stakeholders in a new workforce redesign initiative (extended-scope-of-practice physiotherapy) in one Australian tertiary hospital. The key stakeholder groups were those that had been involved in some way in the development, management, training, funding, and/or delivery of the initiative. Data were collected using semistructured questions, answered individually by interview or in writing. Responses were themed collaboratively, using descriptive analysis. Key identified themes comprised: the importance of service marketing; proactively addressing barriers; using readily understood nomenclature; demonstrating service quality and safety, monitoring adverse events, measuring health and cost outcomes; legislative issues; registration; promoting viable career pathways; developing, accrediting, and delivering a curriculum supporting physiotherapists to work outside of the usual scope; and progression from "a good idea" to established service. Health care facilities planning to implement new workforce initiatives that extend scope of usual practice should consider these issues before instigating workforce/model of care changes. © 2014 Morris et al.

A new multi-objective model to optimise rail transport scheduler

The sugarcane transport system plays a critical role in the overall performance of Australia’s sugarcane industry. An inefficient sugarcane transport system interrupts the raw sugarcane harvesting process, delays the delivery of sugarcane to the mill, deteriorates the sugar quality, increases the usage of empty bins, and leads to the additional sugarcane production costs. Due to these negative effects, there is an urgent need for an efficient sugarcane transport schedule that should be developed by the rail schedulers. In this study, a multi-objective model using mixed integer programming (MIP) is developed to produce an industry-oriented scheduling optimiser for sugarcane rail transport system. The exact MIP solver (IBM ILOG-CPLEX) is applied to minimise the makespan and the total operating time as multi-objective functions. Moreover, the so-called Siding neighbourhood search (SNS) algorithm is developed and integrated with Sidings Satisfaction Priorities (SSP) and Rail Conflict Elimination (RCE) algorithms to solve the problem in a more efficient way. In implementation, the sugarcane transport system of Kalamia Sugar Mill that is a coastal locality about 1050 km northwest of Brisbane city is investigated as a real case study. Computational experiments indicate that high-quality solutions are obtainable in industry-scale applications.

A heterogeneous computing approach to simulation of the Heston Stochastic Volatility Model

Stochastic volatility models are of fundamental importance to the pricing of derivatives. One of the most commonly used models of stochastic volatility is the Heston Model in which the price and volatility of an asset evolve as a pair of coupled stochastic differential equations. The computation of asset prices and volatilities involves the simulation of many sample trajectories with conditioning. The problem is treated using the method of particle filtering. While the simulation of a shower of particles is computationally expensive, each particle behaves independently making such simulations ideal for massively parallel heterogeneous computing platforms. In this paper, we present our portable Opencl implementation of the Heston model and discuss its performance and efficiency characteristics on a range of architectures including Intel cpus, Nvidia gpus, and Intel Many-Integrated-Core (mic) accelerators.

A model for determining the optimal project life span and concession period of BOT projects

The concession agreement is the core feature of BOT projects, with the concession period being the most essential feature in determining the time span of the various rights, obligations and responsibilities of the government and concessionaire. Concession period design is therefore crucial for financial viability and determining the benefit/cost allocation between the host government and the concessionaire. However, while the concession period and project life span are essentially interdependent, most methods to date consider their determination as contiguous events that are determined exogenously. Moreover, these methods seldom consider the, often uncertain, social benefits and costs involved that are critical in defining, pricing and distributing benefits and costs between the various parties and evaluating potentially distributable cash flows. In this paper, we present the results of the first stage of a research project aimed at determining the optimal build-operate-transfer (BOT) project life span and concession period endogenously and interdependently by maximizing the combined benefits of stakeholders. Based on the estimation of the economic and social development involved, a negotiation space of the concession period interval is obtained, with its lower boundary creating the desired financial return for the private investors and its upper boundary ensuring the economic feasibility of the host government as well as the maximized welfare within the project life. The outcome of the new quantitative model is considered as a suitable basis for future field trials prior to implementation. The structure and details of the model are provided in the paper with Hong Kong tunnel project as a case study to demonstrate its detailed application. The basic contributions of the paper to the theory of construction procurement are that the project life span and concession period are determined jointly and the social benefits taken into account in the examination of project financial benefits. In practical terms, the model goes beyond the current practice of linear-process thinking and should enable engineering consultants to provide project information more rationally and accurately to BOT project bidders and increase the government's prospects of successfully entering into a contract with a concessionaire. This is expected to generate more negotiation space for the government and concessionaire in determining the major socioeconomic features of individual BOT contracts when negotiating the concession period. As a result, the use of the model should increase the total benefit to both parties.

An efficient and light-weight multi-tasking model to achieve Intra-Agent concurrency for SAGE

Multi-agent systems implicate a high degree of concurrency at both the Inter- and Intra-Agent levels. Scalable, fault tolerant, Agent Grooming Environment (SAGE), the second generation, FIPA compliant MAS requires a built in mechanism to achieve both the Inter- and Intra-Agent concurrency. This paper dilates upon an attempt to provide a reliable, efficient and light-weight solution to provide intra-agent concurrency with-in the internal agent architecture of SAGE. It addresses the issues related to using the JAVA threading model to provide this level of concurrency to the agent and provides an alternative approach that is based on an eventdriven, concurrent and user-scalable multi-tasking model for the agent's internal model. The findings of this paper show that our proposed approach is suitable for providing an efficient and lightweight concurrent task model for SA GE and considerably outweighs the performance of multithreaded tasking model based on JAVA in terms of throughput and efficiency. This has been illustrated using the practical implementation and evaluation of both models. © 2004 IEEE.

Are organisations prepared for e-health implementation to respond to pandemic influenza?

E-health can facilitate communication and interactions among stakeholders involved in pandemic responses. Its implementation, nevertheless, represents a disruptive change in the healthcare workplace. Organisational preparedness assessment is an essential requirement prior to e-health implementation; including this step in the planning process can increase the chances of programme success. The objective of this study is to develop an e-health preparedness assessment model for pandemic influenza (EHPM4P). Following the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), 20 contextual interviews were conducted with domain experts from May to September 2010. We examined the importance of all preparedness components within a fivedimensional hierarchical framework that was recently published. We also calculated the relative weight for each component at all levels of the hierarchy. This paper presents the hierarchical model (EHPM4P) that can be used to precisely assess healthcare organisational and providers' preparedness for e-health implementation and potentially maximise e-health benefits in the context of an influenza pandemic. Copyright © 2013 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Appendiceal sonography in children: A retrospective analysis as a platform for potential implementation of diagnostic categories

- Background Sonography is an important diagnostic tool in children with suspected appendicitis. Reported accuracy and appendiceal visualisation rates vary significantly, as does the management of equivocal ultrasound findings. The aim of this study was to audit appendiceal sonography at a tertiary children's hospital, and provide baseline data for a future prospective study. - Summary of work Records of children who underwent ultrasound studies for possible appendicitis between January 2008 and December 2010 were reviewed. Variables included patient demographics, sonographic appendix characteristics, and secondary signs. Descriptive statistics and analysis using ANOVA, Mann-Whitney U test, and ROC curves were performed. Mater Human Research Ethic Committee approval was granted. - Summary of results There were 457 eligible children. Using a dichotomous diagnostic model (including equivocal results), sensitivity was 89.6%, specificity 91.6%, and diagnostic yield of 40.7%. ROC curve analysis of a 6mm diameter cut-off was 0.88 AUC (95% CI 0.80 to 0.95). - Discussion and conclusions Sonography is an accurate test for acute appendicitis in children, with a high sensitivity and negative predictive value. A diameter of 6mm as an absolute cut-off in a binary model can lead to false findings. Results were compared with available literature. Recent publications propose categorising diameter1 and integrating secondary signs2 to improve accuracy and provide more meaningful results to clinicians. This study will be a benchmark for future studies with multiple diagnostic categorisation.

An approximate method for the solution of an influence function foil rolling model

Fleck and Johnson (Int. J. Mech. Sci. 29 (1987) 507) and Fleck et al. (Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng. 206 (1992) 119) have developed foil rolling models which allow for large deformations in the roll profile, including the possibility that the rolls flatten completely. However, these models require computationally expensive iterative solution techniques. A new approach to the approximate solution of the Fleck et al. (1992) Influence Function Model has been developed using both analytic and approximation techniques. The numerical difficulties arising from solving an integral equation in the flattened region have been reduced by applying an Inverse Hilbert Transform to get an analytic expression for the pressure. The method described in this paper is applicable to cases where there is or there is not a flat region.