Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Firmicutes dominate the bacterial taxa within sugar-cane processing plants

Sugar cane processing sites are characterised by high sugar/hemicellulose levels, available moisture and warm conditions, and are relatively unexplored unique microbial environments. The PhyloChip microarray was used to investigate bacterial diversity and community composition in three Australian sugar cane processing plants. These ecosystems were highly complex and dominated by four main Phyla, Firmicutes (the most dominant), followed by Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Chloroflexi. Significant variation (p , 0.05) in community structure occurred between samples collected from ‘floor dump sediment’, ‘cooling tower water’, and ‘bagasse leachate’. Many bacterial Classes contributed to these differences, however most were of low numerical abundance. Separation in community composition was also linked to Classes of Firmicutes, particularly Bacillales, Lactobacillales and Clostridiales, whose dominance is likely to be linked to their physiology as ‘lactic acid bacteria’, capable of fermenting the sugars present. This process may help displace other bacterial taxa, providing a competitive advantage for Firmicutes bacteria.

Model-predictive control and closed-loop stability considerations for nonlinear plants described by local ARX-type models

In this paper, a model-predictive control (MPC) method is detailed for the control of nonlinear systems with stability considerations. It will be assumed that the plant is described by a local input/output ARX-type model, with the control potentially included in the premise variables, which enables the control of systems that are nonlinear in both the state and control input. Additionally, for the case of set point regulation, a suboptimal controller is derived which has the dual purpose of ensuring stability and enabling finite-iteration termination of the iterative procedure used to solve the nonlinear optimization problem that is used to determine the control signal.

Design and construction of an in-plant activation cassette for transgene expression and recombinant protein production in plants

Virus-based transgene expression systems have become particularly valuable for recombinant protein production in plants. The dual-module in-plant activation (INPACT) expression platform consists of a uniquely designed split-gene cassette incorporating the cis replication elements of Tobacco yellow dwarf geminivirus (TYDV) and an ethanol-inducible activation cassette encoding the TYDV Rep and RepA replication-associated proteins. The INPACT system is essentially tailored for recombinant protein production in stably transformed plants and provides both inducible and high-level transient transgene expression with the potential to be adapted to diverse crop species. The construction of a novel split-gene cassette, the inducible nature of the system and the ability to amplify transgene expression via rolling-circle replication differentiates this system from other DNA- and RNA-based virus vector systems used for stable or transient recombinant protein production in plants. Here we provide a detailed protocol describing the design and construction of a split-gene INPACT cassette, and we highlight factors that may influence optimal activation and amplification of gene expression in transgenic plants. By using Nicotiana tabacum, the protocol takes 6-9 months to complete, and recombinant proteins expressed using INPACT can accumulate to up to 10% of the leaf total soluble protein.

Mini-scale method for nuclear run-on transcription assay in plants

We present a mini-scale method for nuclear run-on transcription assay. In our method, all the centrifuge steps can be carried out by using micro-tubes for short time (5 min each) throughout the process, including isolation of transcriptionally active nuclei and purification of labeled RNA after synthesis of RNA in isolated nuclei. The assay can be performed using a small amount of plant tissue, which enables analysis of developmental changes in transcriptional status of given genes in a single individual plant. Successful results were obtained using the tissues of flower and leaf of petunia and embryo of pea, suggesting that the method is potentially applicable to a variety of plant tissues.

Transient expression vectors for functional genomics, quantification of promoter activity and RNA silencing in plants

Background We describe novel plasmid vectors for transient gene expression using Agrobacterium, infiltrated into Nicotiana benthamiana leaves. We have generated a series of pGreenII cloning vectors that are ideally suited to transient gene expression, by removing elements of conventional binary vectors necessary for stable transformation such as transformation selection genes. Results We give an example of expression of heme-thiolate P450 to demonstrate effectiveness of this system. We have also designed vectors that take advantage of a dual luciferase assay system to analyse promoter sequences or post-transcriptional regulation of gene expression. We have demonstrated their utility by co-expression of putative transcription factors and the promoter sequence of potential target genes and show how orthologous promoter sequences respond to these genes. Finally, we have constructed a vector that has allowed us to investigate design features of hairpin constructs related to their ability to initiate RNA silencing, and have used these tools to study cis-regulatory effect of intron-containing gene constructs. Conclusion In developing a series of vectors ideally suited to transient expression analysis we have provided a resource that further advances the application of this technology. These minimal vectors are ideally suited to conventional cloning methods and we have used them to demonstrate their flexibility to investigate enzyme activity, transcription regulation and post-transcriptional regulatory processes in transient assays.

Ecological risk analysis of transgenic plants

Public concern about the safety of many forms of industrial technology are known to be linked to a range of factors including a perceived lack of confidence in regulatory decision making.1 The use of transgenic plants in agriculture may be seen as an issue that could generate similar concern. Criticism has been made about the completeness of knowledge on the potential for aberrant behaviour of genetically manipulated organisms (GMO's) in release environments, and the adequacy of existing pre­‐release screening and assessment methodologies (Goldberg & Tjaden, 1990). Such comments are important because any perceived shortcomings in the pre-release assessment of GMO safety may lead to decreased public support of the technology -­‐and the industry itself...

'Not a Local Win': Rural Australian perceptions of the sustainable impacts of forest plantations

Australian forestry plantations have doubled in the past 15 years, with rural communities harbouring a diverse range of positive and negative of economic, environmental and social impacts – the so-called triple bottom line (TBL). Utilising two Australian rural communities in Eden/Gippsland and Tasmania as qualitative case studies, this research explores how 23 non-forestry affiliated rural residents perceived and experienced the TBL economic, environmental and social impacts of plantation forestry. Residents criticised the economic plantation forestry benefits because of lengthy periods of inactivity and limited local employment, explaining that their community was reliant on the industry yet the promised economic benefits had never fully materialised. There was a sense the industry ‘plant and walk away.’ Residents were concerned about the environment impact on water quality, water tables and fire hazards, although they praised plantation forestry for carbon sequestering, eradicating erosion and water run-off. Negative social impacts were described, specifically how the land-use change from farming to forestry had significantly reduced the local population, employment and need for services. Natural resource management and communication strategies are offered, derived from non-forestry affiliated rural resident perspectives on how best to ensure sustainable forest development in their community.

Effects of artificial shade on attack by the mahogany shoot borer, Hypsipyla robusta (Moore)

Swietenia macrophylla King (Meliaceae: Swietenioideae) provides one of the premier timbers of the world. The mahogany shoot borer Hypsipyla robusta Moore (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) is an economically important pest of S. macrophylla throughout Asia, Africa and the Pacific. No viable method of controlling this pest is known. Previous observations have suggested that the presence of overhead shade may reduce attack by H. robusta, but this has not been investigated experimentally. This research was therefore designed to assess the influence of light availability on shoot-borer attack on S. macrophylla, by establishing seedlings under three different artificial shade regimes, then using these seedlings to test oviposition preference of adult moths, neonate larval survival and growth and development of shoot borer larvae. Oviposition preference of shoot borer moths was tested on leaves from seedlings grown under artificial shade for 63 weeks. A significant difference in choice was recorded between treatments, with 27.4 ± 1.5 eggs laid under high shade and 87.1 ± 1.8 under low shade. Neonate larval survival on early flushing leaflets of S. macrophylla did not differ significantly between shade treatments. Larval growth rate, estimated by measuring daily frass width, was significantly higher for those larvae fed on seedlings from the high and medium shade treatments (0.1 mm/day), than the low shade treatment (0.06 mm/day). In laboratory-reared larvae, the total mass of frass produced was significantly higher in the high shade treatment (0.4 g) than under the low shade treatment (0.2 g). Longer tunnel lengths were bored by larvae in plants grown under high shade (12.0 ± 2.4 cm) than under low shade (7.07 ± 1.9 cm). However, pupal mass under low shade was 48% higher than that under the high shade treatment, suggesting that plants grown under high shade were of lower nutritional quality for shoot borer larvae. These results indicate that shading of mahogany seedlings may reduce the incidence of shoot borer attack, by influencing both oviposition and larval development. The establishment of mahogany under suitable shade regimes may therefore provide a basis for controlling shoot borer attack using silvicultural approaches.

Spatial analysis of risk factors for transmission of the Barmah forest virus in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia but few data are available on the risk factors. We assessed the impact of spatial climatic, socioeconomic and ecological factors on the transmission of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia, using spatial regression. All our analyses indicate that spatial lag models provide a superior fit to the data compared to spatial error and ordinary least square models. The residuals of the spatial lag models were found to be uncorrelated, indicating that the models adequately account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Our results revealed that minimum temperature, distance from coast and low tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease in coastal areas, whereas minimum temperature and high tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease (all P-value.

Emerging methods in using GIS to analyse Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is an emerging mosquito-borne disease in Australia. We aimed to outline some recent methods in using GIS for the analysis of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia. A large database of geocoded BFV cases has been established in conjunction with population data. The database has been used in recently published studies conducted by the authors to determine spatio-temporal BFV disease hotspots and spatial patterns using spatial autocorrelation and semi-variogram analysis in conjunction with the development of interpolated BFV disease standardised incidence maps. This paper briefly outlines spatial analysis methodologies using GIS tools used in those studies. This paper summarises methods and results from previous studies by the authors, and presents a GIS methodology to be used in future spatial analytical studies in attempt to enhance the understanding of BFV disease in Queensland. The methodology developed is useful in improving the analysis of BFV disease data and will enhance the understanding of the BFV disease distribution in Queensland, Australia.

Forest reflections

Interactive art installation Artist in Residence Queensland Government grant. Awarded June 2011 for period July-September 2011. This project involved co-creating an interactive artwork on site and in the forest with Grovely Primary school children aged 6-10, some with high needs. Affiliated with the United Nations International Year of the Forest. Final work is tangible, real-time visualization created using participatory design methods.

Development of a transient, high-level expression platform for protein production in plants

Plants are an attractive alternative to conventional expression systems for the production of recombinant proteins and useful biologics, however, the economic viability of plant made proteins is strongly yield dependent. This study aimed to improve transgene expression levels in the plant host Nicotiana benthamiana using the Agroinfiltration transient expression platform. Independent investigation of the physical, chemical and genetic features associated with Agroinfiltration identified factors that improved transformation frequencies, elevated transgene expression levels and ultimately improved protein yield. The major outcome of this research was a novel hyper-expression system for biofarming recombinant proteins in plants.

Competition for pollination by the lesser short-tailed bat and its influence on the flowering phenology of some New Zealand endemics

The lesser short-tailed bat, Mystacina tuberculata, is the only native mammalian pollinator in New Zealand and the only fully temperate bat pollinator in the world. Although this unique status as a pollinator is well recognized, its reduced abundance and cryptic behaviour means little research has been undertaken to assess the contribution of the lesser short-tailed bat (hereafter ‘short-tailed bat’) to pollination in New Zealand. Accordingly, pollination by short-tailed bats has been assumed to be comparatively inconsequential, and the potential impacts of the bat's widespread extirpation have been overlooked. The recent discovery that the short-tailed bat is a major pollinator for at least some of the plants it visits emphasizes the importance of exploring this species' role as a pollinator. Here, our aim was to provide an assessment of the competition for short-tailed bat pollination through study of the temporal variation of flowering. Bats were sampled for pollen, and phenology surveys were conducted simultaneously. We found that the amount and type of pollen carried by the bats varied temporally, with one pollen type dominating samples at any given time. The two plants most consistently observed in the pollen samples flowered sequentially with little temporal overlap, suggesting that their flowering phenology may be adapted to minimize competition for the pollination services of the short-tailed bat.

Sex-specific roost selection by bats in clearfell harvested plantation forest : improved knowledge advises management

To maximize energetic savings, female bats often roost communally whilst pregnant or with non-volant dependents, whereas male bats more often roost alone; however, differences in selection of roosts by sex have not often been investigated. Better understanding of female colony locations could focus management to protect the majority of bats. New Zealand's long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) roost in exotic plantation forest, where sex-specific roost selection has not been investigated, and therefore such management is not possible. We investigated sex-specific roost selection by long-tailed bats for the first time. Roosts and paired nonroosts were characterized testing predictions that males and females select roosts that differ from non-roosts, and males and females select different roosts. Females and males chose Pinus radiata roosts that differed from non-roost trees. Results suggest each sex chose roosts that maximized energetic savings. Female bats used roosts closer to water sources, that warmed earlier in the day, which allowed maintenance of high temperatures. Males appeared to choose roosts that allowed torpor use for long periods of the day. Males may be less selective with their roost locations than females, as they roosted further from water sources. This could allow persistence of male bats in marginal habitat. As all female long-tailed bats chose roosts within 150 m of waterways, management to protect bats could be focused here. To protect bats least able to escape when roosts are harvested, harvest of forest stands selected by female bats as roost sites should be planned when bats are not heavily pregnant nor have non-volant dependents.